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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

Spurs 93 - Clippers 84

The Spurs have now beaten the Clippers in all four of their meetings this season.  The margins of victory have been, in order, 29 points, 22 points, 14 points and 9 points.  It is a simple geometric progression that proves that the Spurs do NOT want any part of the Clippers in the playoffs.  They might win the first game, but the trend clearly indicates that the Clippers would win the next 4, take the series 4-1, and embarrass the Spurs by 25 or so in the final game.

Now they just have to get into the playoffs.

Although as Ralph said it is too late in the season for moral victories, there were at least some positive signs for the Clippers.  They executed well on offense and got good shots throughout most of the game.  They ended up shooting 49.4%, and that included numerous misses of open looks.  Elton Brand had a mini-breakout from his mini-slump, with 16 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks, and he made a few jumpshots for the first time in a couple weeks.  

The bad news is that for the second game in a row, the Clippers simply did not get to the free throw line:  I thought 17 attempts against the Pistons was anemic - they had only 7 attempts in this game .  The fact that they missed 4 of them was just adding insult to injury.  The refs aren't helping them, but neither are the Clippers helping themselves by taking the ball to the basket aggressively.  Zero free throw attempts for Elton Brand is not acceptable.

The really bad news is that Sam Cassell sat out again.  With only five weeks left in the season, it's now been almost two weeks since Sam pulled a groin muscle at the end of February.  He hasn't been close to 100% in those two weeks, and if it has taken this long, there's no telling how much longer it will take.  Jason Hart has done an admirable job considering that he's been a Clipper for all of a week now, but Jason Hart is not Sam Cassell.  It's almost unimaginable that the Clippers could make a successful push to the playoffs with neither of their top two point guards.

The team is now 29-34, tying their low water mark of the season at 5 games under .500.  And yet the remain in 8th place in the West.  Sacramento could have tied them with a win, and the Hornets could have come within a half game, but both teams lost.  Minnesota managed a win over the free-falling Indiana Pacers but even that is arguably good news for the Clippers if they want two first round picks this summer.

Golden State is the big winner on the evening, now sitting alone in the ninth position, a mere half game behind the Clippers.  With two more days off, the Warriors may well be in the 8 spot before they have to play another game.

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CM
I have never seen a player with CM's capabilities and talents turn the ball over so much in one season!  I bet this guy has to be among the top 3 leaders in turn overs via charges!  I can't believe how disheartening it must be for EB to watch, as he is open in the right elbow, CM drive past him and into an offensive player's chest...I know i'm sick of it!

by Lawler's Law on Mar 13, 2007 11:47 PM PDT reply actions  

CM
plays going forward, and sometimes with his head down.  Once he decides he's going to the hoop, that's it.  He's either going to the line, or it's going the other way.

But have you maybe noticed that he has led the team in scoring all but once since returning to the starting lineup?

Getting minutes and actually having plays called for you does wonders.  Aside from the EB pick and roll with Cassell, the Clippers most effective offensive plays are the EB handoff to a basline Corey, and the Corey cutting down the lane feed from up top.  Glad the Clips waited 55 games to start using them (barf).

I posted on another blog about the 7 free-throws.  That must be close to a record low.  That explains everything to me.

Because otherwise, the Clippers overcame all of their weaknesses last night.  Only 13 turnovers, only 5 three's allowed, only gave up 7 offensive boards, rotated well, shot 50%.

I didn't see the game until the 3rd Qtr, but I could immediately tell that the team was ready to play.  They were hustling and moving the ball.  

Too bad we don't play the Spurs again.

by mp on Mar 14, 2007 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Too bad we don't play the Spurs again.
...LAC might be the only teams whose fans would say that...

by gfngfgf on Mar 14, 2007 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm...
I gotta say, it's a strange time (and place, given that ClipsNation is the home of the Play Corey petition) to be calling out Maggette for his turnovers.  Especially after an 8-14, 9 rebound 5 assist game.  He only had one charge called against him last night, and as mp pointed out, he's the Clippers' leading scorer since the All Star break, and in 8 of the last 10 games.  The team's not winning a lot, but it's safe to say they'd be winning a lot less without him lately.  

Obviously he is turnover prone - I mean, if he weren't, then he really would be on the all star team, right?  And equally obviously his style of going hard to the basket yields a lot of fouls, most on the defender, and some on Corey.

I have not found a 'Most Charges' stat.  82games did a 'drawing charges' stat, but I have not found one for the player who is committing the charge.

We can however look at things like turnovers per minute (on the anti-Corey side) and free throws made per minute (on the pro-Corey side) to see where he stands overall in the NBA.  (Given that Corey is actually a pretty poor ball-handler and passer, turnovers per minute is the real problem - yes he gets called for charges, but he turns the ball over plenty of other ways also.)  

Corey is second in the NBA in FTM per 48 minutes, with 10.5.  Only Dwyane Wade makes more free throws per 48, with 11.1.  Kobe Bryant makes 10.  LeBron James makes 10.4.  So Corey is truly elite in this particular facet of the game.

On the bad side, he is 19th in the league in turnovers per 48, with 4.1.  Top 20 in a negative category is not where you want to be, but when you look at the other people on this list (like Wade, Bryant and Nash) you realize that you're talking about a high risk, high reward situation.  These guys are making things happen, and sometimes they turn the ball over.  (By the way, no wonder George Karl has lost the rest of his hair, with Melo turning it over 5 times per 48 and AI doing so 4.8 times - two players in the top 10!)  

I'd also like to point out that in the last 10 games, since he has been a starter, Corey has been more under control.  In fact, he has decreased his turnovers per 48 to 3.2 - a very respectable number, only slightly higher than EB's 3.1 season average.  So like I said, it seems like a strange time to be complaining about him.

by Steve Perrin on Mar 14, 2007 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

99.47% agree
Wade, Bryant and Nash are primary ballhandlers.  If we are talking about turnovers per chance I think Maggs looks alot worse here.  That point comes off as a little weak compared to the rest of the strong points.

I don't know how anyone could have complaints about Corey the starter vs Corey the sub.

by John R on Mar 14, 2007 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

You caught me...
You know better than most that stats can usually say what you want them to say...  so I cleverly glossed over the turnovers per touch issue with the per 48 stat (which is the only one actually available to me anyway).  

In defense of Corey, he is often in the Wade / Kobe role for the Clippers of trying to create something out of a bad possession.  Sometimes I feel like the Clippers would have about 2 more 24 second clock violations per game if Corey weren't there to run over somebody with 2 seconds on the clock.

It was certainly eye-opening to see Tyrus Thomas at the top of the list for Turnovers per 48 - here's a guy that almost never handles the ball, and turns it over more per 48 minutes than anyone in the league.  Yikes!  

by Steve Perrin on Mar 14, 2007 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

More than Kaman?
I'll count that as progress.

by John R on Mar 14, 2007 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOL
"It is a simple geometric progression that proves that the Spurs do NOT want any part of the Clippers in the playoffs.  They might win the first game, but the trend clearly indicates that the Clippers would win the next 4, take the series 4-1, and embarrass the Spurs by 25 or so in the final game."

Steve - way to bring your "A" Game on that one, I had a good laugh.

by Todd Lerner @ Clips Nation on Mar 14, 2007 9:45 AM PDT reply actions  

Clippers in the playoffs?
Not with Dunleavy.  He's just killing the team.  
What are they gonna do in the playoffs with Dunleavy anyway.  Unless they're up by 15 in the 4th, the clippers will lose.

Dunleavy had his usual
"I thought we missed a lot of good shots,"
quote after the spurs game

http://firedunleavy.com

FireDunleavy!!

by danparker276 on Mar 14, 2007 3:57 PM PDT reply actions  

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