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John Hollinger Ranks the Clippers 12th - Behind the Wolves

Remember a few days ago when Citizen Zhiv posted about the low expectations for the Clippers in Marc Stein's Power Rankings on ESPN.com?  Remember how calm and measured I was in response?  Low expectations are a good thing.  10th in the West, behind Portland and Denver but ahead of Golden State is a reasonable prediction.  Remember all that? 

Well Stein's ESPN colleague John Hollinger has released his Western Conference previews, and he has the Clippers ranked 12th in the Conference.  Behind the Warriors AND the Timberwolves.  Seriously.  That's what he wrote.  He's predicting 30 wins.

OK, so low expectations remains a good thing.  Beyond that, I got nothing.

Bear in mind that this is the same guy who predicting 20 wins for the Clippers last season.  Now, you may be saying, "Wait a minute - the Clippers only won 23.  Sounds like his prediction was pretty good."  The Clippers of course lost more games to injury than any other team last season, and even though the Brand injury was known, he was still expected back for the final 30 games at the least - so there were significant injuries that Hollinger DIDN'T know about.  Or put it this way - he picked Miami among the top teams in the Eastern Conference.  Ask him why that didn't happen and he'll point to injuries.  So you can't have it both ways.

He continues to have a weird disdain for Al Thornton.  Clips Nation will probably never forget the way Hollinger predicted that Thornton would be a bust as a rookie, based almost exlusively on his age.  And Hollinger has never admitted the obvious - that he was flat wrong about Thornton.  After all, Al was named first team all rookie, and ended up as the second leading scorer among rookies.  Does Hollinger foresee good things this time around?  Not so much.  And he remains simply obsessed with Al's age:

It's tough to find any [wings] who are really starter quality.  The best hope is probably Thornton, who had an erratic rookie season but picked up his play toward the end and could provide some decent scoring from the small forward spot. At the same time, he turns 25 in December, making him about half a decade older than many of the league's other second-year players, so one shouldn't expect the same kind of year-to-year growth.

Give it a rest, Hollinger, seriously.

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Ouch

Man, if you’re ranked lower than the Wolves, it doesn’t get much worse. :)

While I think the Clippers will be better than Hollinger says, if injuries derailed last year, there’s a great danger of that this year too. Davis and Camby have been pretty healthy the last few years, but both have also missed significant portions of their career due to injury. Not to mention Gordon just got hurt.

by wyn on Oct 2, 2008 7:16 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Man point exactly, Wyn!

The Wolves for Pete’s sake! I’m glad you agree.

The injury argument seems spurious. Any team can suffer injuries – I don’t think there’s a plausible way to factor it into predictions. Baron played 82 games last season and Camby played 79. Yes, they both have an injury history. Do you know who did not have an injury history before last season? Elton Brand.

Sure, it’s safer assuming injuries will happen given that it’s the Clippers. Something bad will happen, right?

As for the Wolves, I hope they are improved. I hope they are 8 or more spots better in the NBA standings. So the Clippers get their first round pick!

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Oct 2, 2008 8:12 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Steve, raise your horizon!

I know you like being a stay-at-home Dad and all, but I fail to see what disqualifies you from having a gig like Hollinger’s.
Seriously. You write well, have insights, seem to have a decent work ethic, and you aren’t a horse’s ass.
Or is the last a deal-breaker?
I’m just wonderin’, because being wrong seems not to be a problem, at all. No recognition of error, no apologies, no learning.
Heck, you’d think they were politicians, or somethin’.

by pipedreams on Oct 2, 2008 7:57 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

News Fakers.........

that’s what they are………

30 – 52…………..that’s his prediction Baron. Hollinger thinks you and your Clippers squad are going to go 30 -52………..

Hey Ricky " the Clippers don’t have any good wings " in a year you are playing for your last decent shot at a contract?!?

and I’m sure Camby won’t be motivated to prove his worth after being traded for NOTHING in return.

by tha MaDD Sientist on Oct 2, 2008 8:53 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Use for motivation

Yeah if I was Baron I would post that article on the wall and use it to rally the team. I remember Phelps saying that he used Thorpes article saying there is no way he could win 8 gold medals in his locker and looked at it every day for motivation.

by bestclipfan on Oct 2, 2008 3:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Credibility

Anyone who rates the Clips below the Wolves have lost all credibility with me.

by Newtybar on Oct 2, 2008 10:30 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hollinger’s article sounds like he expects a lot of injuries. He said the Clippers outlook was far far superior if the main guys stayed healthy.

Also lukewarm on Thornton and skimmed over Gordon …. two players who need to play very big roles next season and have considerable upside.

by NBR on Oct 2, 2008 9:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Annoying

Hollinger has done well for himself by picking against the Clips, and he always manages to find new and interesting ways to do it. This time he has really pushed himself.

I read through all of his articles and analysis and it all sounds good, but it adds up to a massive case of skepticism, the idea that everything that can go wrong probably will, starting with a few significant injuries, and they’ll end up scraping together some parts and battling along.

He doesn’t consider Dunleavy’s responses to the fact that exact thing happened last years, and he has built up some insurance systems designed to prevent it. The Clips had no offensive firepower at all, and they went and got one of the most dynamic, winning PGs in the league, who simply doesn’t lose 50 games a season. They quickly replaced Brand with the extremely productive Camby—who should impress Hollinger with his stats—but it also gave them some extra money to add depth, starting with shooters. Add up the total # of 3 pt shots made on the team last year with the guys on the roster this year (although losing JWill hurts that total a bit). They have promising rookies. He might easily have said that the Clips got a gem when Thornton dropped to them last year, and the same thing might be true with getting Gordon at 7 and especially Jordan, a potential high lottery pick, in the 2nd round.

Except that he won’t acknowledge Thornton, as you point out. It’s amazing to see how the logic gets twisted this year. Last year he was a prime candidate to be a bust because he was too old. So he wasn’t a bust—can we start with that? Guess not. Just not a bust in any way shape or form, we would point out, and move on to say that he was first team all-rookie, put up some extraordinary numbers in the second half once he started getting big minutes, and had been around the league. How many other rookies had any 35+ point games again? We would add that he actually took over a couple of games and won them down the stretch. But we don’t hear about any of that.

No, instead we get the logic that, because he’s “old” (we would say mature, in his prime and also learning, and ready to contribute consistently), that his year-to-year growth won’t match other rookies. It doesn’t need to, because he’s already done it! Get back to us, John, when Thaddeus Young scores 39 points in a game. By the time that happens, believe, AT will have set the bar much higher.

Let’s not misinterpret or get ahead of ourselves: AT isn’t going to be an all-star anytime soon. But the timing has worked out very well for him. Yes, he’s mature, which is a big reason why the Clips didn’t want to overpay for Maggette, because AT is ready to slip into a full-time starter slot. It’s a fantastic opportunity. His growing pains will be on defense, but he’s going to get so many more opportunities on the offensive end than he did last year it won’t be close, partly just from getting starter’s minutes for a full season, partly from playing with a real PG in BDavis, partly from playing with the formidable Kaman-Camby backline. The goal is for him to develop consistency, and he’ll avoid the empty games. Other teams will have enough issues with BDavis, Kaman and his other teammates, including some of the new shooters, that they won’t be able to focus too much energy on AT—it’ll mostly be straight up. He needs to pass and move the ball around and find different types of opportunities, but his hunger to score, make plays and make shots is a rare gift, along with his size and athleticism. He’s one of many weapons on the 30+ win Clippers, and it should be interesting to see how Hollinger twists his logic as changes his tune next year. “Thornton established himself as a productive starter last year, but his 3pt %, rebounding totals and assists were still on the low side for an aging player making a bid for all-star consideration…”

by citizen zhiv on Oct 2, 2008 9:49 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   1 recs

zhiv's don't need no training camp...

…he’s in mid-season form already. Hollinger’s a tool.

by swamigusto on Oct 3, 2008 10:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For another take on Thornton's age issue...

See the NBA.com Clippers’ preview by Dave McMenamin. He astutely designates Al as the Clippers “Man on the Spot” in a side bar, and points out the NBA success of 4 year college players like Tim Duncan and David West. Here’s an excerpt:

Will Thornton’s college years pay off in the same way they did for Duncan, Battier and West? If his rookie season is any indication, he seems to be headed in the right direction.

If Thornton improves upon the 16.1 points and 5.8 rebounds per game he put up over the last three months of last season, he’ll be well on his way to earning his masters degree in the NBA.

The biggest howl from the Hollinger preview is the assertion that none of the Clipper wings are ‘starter quality’. What exactly is his definition of starter quality? Al averaged 16 and 6 for the last 3 months of his rookie year, and he’s not starter quality? In what universe? Any other first team all rookie selections coming off the bench this season? (That would be no.)

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Oct 3, 2008 10:36 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

citizen zhiv

I couldn’t agree more! excellent post!

by FEARTHECLIPS on Oct 3, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well played, Zhiv. Couldn't agree more.

I can’t wait to shove it back in Hollinger’s fat face…

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted" – Albert Einstein

by Another son of Mike Smith on Oct 3, 2008 10:33 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hater

Yes thornton is old for a sophmore but theres nothing wrong with it. Its better than going straight after high school (back in the day) or going after 1 year and getting picked near the end of the 1st round. Then he wouldve probably bounced around the league making minimum and regretting not going to college. Gerald Green anyone ? And plus, he actually graduated so he doesnt go broke after he retires (which i hear most nba players are broke 5 years after they retire) or go back to school at that age.

Even said all that by far he was the best pick at 14. rookie first team he was 4th in voting which means 10 players picked before him were worse. how can you factor in injuries though, that makes no sense. Unless were talking nene or mcgrady. Camby and Davis both played full seasons (well 79 for mc) which means i give them the beifit of the doubt. I seriously question your skills hollinger, 7 wins more ? so that means baron davis and marcus camby – corey maggette = 7 wins. honestly it could happen but i doubt it.

by andrewexd on Oct 5, 2008 10:22 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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