A Query on Al Thornton, Best and Worst-Case Scenarios
by Redmosa on Dec 15, 2008 1:49 AM PST
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PrintOur friend Kevin Arnovitz posted this earlier in the week and it intrigued me.
When the Clippers drafted Al in the summer of 2007, I was among many skeptics who were dumbfounded by the front office's decision to draft a forward (a luxery at the time) and not a point guard (a dire necesity because of Mr. Livingston). However, I was a temporary skeptic once I saw him play in the summer league; specifically when I saw him drop 24 against the Nuggets. We saw him struggle before the all-star break, but then he broke out during the second half of the season after being snubbed from the rookie all-star team. We've seen how vicious Al can be with a chip on his shoulder (Ask the Grizzlies & Hawks), and it earned him a spot on the first-team all rookie; he was one of the few bright spots on a Brandless season.
From his days at Florida State, to the pros, Al has been improving. Al's a guy that's all about working hard at the gym, practicing, and... working hard. He understands his flaws (rebounding, passing, defending) and Al just seems to look better each game. Even from his words I get this feeling Al wants to be the franchise player or the go-to guy, or whatever you want to call it. I remember Al stating after the first blowout to the Lakers this year, "At the end of the day, we all have the same goal. We want to win. It can't be tolerated."
Al has a talent for scoring, and he can do it anywhere on the basketball court. His slashing and finishing skills are amazing in the paint and as much as we want him to drive more to the basket, Al can make some of the most incredibly difficult jump shots I've ever seen. Honestly, I'm happy that he's driving more now, but at the same time I'm a bit disappointed that he isn't shooting as many 3-pointers. Last year his 3PT% was much higher than Kevin Durants (albeit Al took considerably less 3PT shots than KD did). But this is an entirely different subject in and of itself.
What I'm concerned with is Al's future in the league. As many of us here at Clips Nation have recognized, AT12 is not a young rookie. In fact, he just recently turned 25. One of the most noteable superstars Al has been compared to is "The Human Highlight Film," Dominique Wilkins. Our own Marcus Camby has even seen the flashes of Nique in Al and perhaps it's possible for Al to achieve Dominiqueness (Even now in the shadows of Davis1 and Z-Bo). Although the Hawks failed to make the playoffs in '84-'85, Nique was averaging 27.4PPG and 6.9RPG at the age of 25 and consistently averaging 20+PPG in his career.
So perhaps Nique'ness is a bit too much to expect at the moment for youg ole Al, but could it be possible for him to attain such greatness in the future? Honestly, I don't believe AT ALL that Al is the second-coming of Corey Maggette, and as much as I appreciate everything Corey's done for the team, I think he is the worst-case scenario for Al to end up as (A one-dimensional scorer). One reasonable comparison that strikes similar with Al is Alex English. At the same age both players have similar stats, and I think Al can make the same progression as a player that English did. Al has the athleticism and flash in his game but low basketball IQ, while it was slightly the opposite for English. For now, it's a very reasonable best-case scenario for Al, and if he can be as good as English, then maybe he can obtain the Nique'ness that we all believe he can reach. Al works hard enough, and I blieve that his hard-work and belief can be greater than the weight of age.
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AT makes shots that a lot of guys in the NBA can't make
He is still raw. I think he has a very bright future, despite his age. (Age just means his career will be shorter).
F-Elton!
Good post
For me:
Alex English is a very high bar. Of course, I feel like English was almost as good as Nique. Different, certainly, but almost as good. So either one is setting the bar very, very high, and if AT gets anywhere close, we be very happy.
Al needs to play smarter. The play he made at the end of the half against Houston was so incredibly stupid I would have been upset with my 12 year for doing it. Funny thing about that play – it was stupid on 2 levels, the second being lost because no one needed to look past the first one. He stepped over the end line on the inbounds pass – something the Clippers have now done at least 4 times this season. Dumb. But no one noticed the pass itself – he threw it too far, it sailed over everyone’s head, out of bounds without being touched. The ONE thing… THE ONE THING… you can’t do with 1.7 seconds on the clock under your own basket is give the ball to the other team with no time off the clock under THEIR BASKET. Al did that in two different ways. It’s one small example – but he’s got to be smarter.
On the old rookie thing…. I’ve never been real concerned with that. I still think Al has plenty of headroom from the perspective that he was not a full time basketball player until recently. He was a three sport guy in high school and was recruited to high jump in college. When he began to concentrate on basketball, his performance improved consistently and significantly, year over year, as evidenced by his FSU career. So he hasn’t shown any signs of plateauing. A lack of physical potential (i.e. the idea that he’s not growing or not becoming more athletic) is not his issue – he’s already one of the best athletes in the NBA. So until and unless he begins to show signs of a lack of growth in his basketball skill set, I still view him as having great potential. And as you point out, he’s a hard worker. He’s not ‘old’ in the sense that he’s losing a step. His physical prime is still probably 4 years away. It may make his contract extension discussion a little tougher – but it’s just not an issue under this contract.
The single biggest issue with Al is his defense. He’s not real good. He commits silly fouls, he’s not staying in front of people, his rotations need work. In that last couple of games, when he ended up on Roy or TMac (either by design or on a switch) it did not go well. In the end, I feel confident that his offense is going to be fine. He’s got the tools, he’s improving, and there’s no reason to think that the refinements he needs won’t happen. It’s a fairly natural progression from where he is to where he needs to be, if he’s willing to work. It’s not like he needs to re-work his jump shot. He just needs to recognize better, and that comes with experience. But if he’s a defensive liability his entire career, then it limits his potential significantly. You can’t have him on the floor all the time if he’s hurting you on defense.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Those inbounds violations are ridiculous
I don’t think I have ever seen a team whistled for it so many times. Silly way to turn it over.
I am puzzled as to why AT is so poor on D. You would think someone as active, hard working and athletic would be a strong defender. Great defense requires years of understanding and experience, but good defense does not. I have often seen someone new to basketball come in and be able to make an immediate impact on D.
A great defender will never stop anyone, but they should at least make the shot tough. Al is not doing that.
F-Elton!
Agreed
Al’s poor defense is a bit of a mystery. He’s got the athleticism to be sure, and he is a hard worker. The coaching staff has always said that they think he’ll be a good defender. But it’s not translating right now. In contrast to his offensive game, I have seen little or no improvement in his defense this season. That’s probably the biggest concern with him right now.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 15, 2008 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe it comes down to the one criticism that has always been there
Lack of basketball IQ, they say.
Possibly
and it could be due to his “newness” to the game. He only recently made it his primary sport.
Still, I don’t think “IQ” is needed to play passable defense.
F-Elton!
That's a huge point...
People bag on Al for his age, but you have to put it in perspective. This isn’t a 25 yr. old who’s been living and breathing basketball since he was 5, 10, 15, or even 18. It wasn’t until college that he went at it full bore, and all you have to do is look at the progression at Florida State to what we’ve seen in his short pro career. You couldn’t ask for much more out of a 14th pick in a draft with slim pickings.
Compared to past #14 picks...
2006 Ronnie Brewer
2005 Rashad McCants
2004 Kris Humphries
2003 Luke Ridnour
2002 Fred Jones
2001 Troy Murphy
2000 Mateen Cleaves
1999 William Avery
1998 Michael Dickerson
Interesting...
I like Ronnie Brewer a lot.
The more pertinent comparison is to the players around him in his draft. He stands up very well there as well.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 15, 2008 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
AT is again the 2nd leading scorer from last years draft
As “deep” as we thought last year would be, this year is looking pretty solid, too.
In any event, AT was a STEAL at 14. If they could do it over, he probably goes Top 4.
F-Elton!
I'm not so sure...
There are a lot of people out there who subscribe to the Hollinger way of thinking, GMs included. So guys like Thad Young and Julian and Brandon Wright, even though many of them aren’t doing anything yet, might still go ahead of Al. I’m not saying I agree. I guess I’m saying some GMs are stupid – they would rather draft a guy who MIGHT be a star than a guy whose already pretty close.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 15, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
GM's do make the same mistakes as media tools
I think coaches would have some influence over the draft, and I guarantee you that opposing coaches lose more sleep over stopping AT than they do Thad or the Wrights.
I mean, Houston puts Artest or Battier on AT. He draws most teams best defender, partly because he plays the 3, but also because he can light it up.
In any case, he would certainly go higher than 14. He was an absolute steal. (Speaking of steals, how many GM’s should be fired for passing on Danny Granger in 05?)
F-Elton!
Good point on Granger...
For all of Hollinger’s data suggesting that ‘older’ rookies are a bad choice, I still believe the opposite tends to be true. The problem of course is that the data doesn’t control for freakazoids. LeBron, drafted at 18, ergo, draft 18 year olds. Well, sure, if they’re LeBron (or KG or Kobe or a million others). The sure-fire guaranteed mega-stars – they get drafted at 18 or 19. But that does not make the converse true. Not every 18 or 19 year old is destined for mega-stardom.
On the other end, you get great players, who played exactly the right way in college, and proved all they needed to at that level, who get passed over partly because they’re ‘too old.’ David West, Josh Howard, Danny Granger, Al Thornton…
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 16, 2008 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Right, but
those are the exceptions. My general understanding (i.e., my understanding without checking actual facts) is that most players drafted don’t become solid every day players, and that most who do are those taken at the very beginning of the drafts each year. Those players tend to be younger.
Hollinger’s data is likely correct overall. However, there are exceptions to every rule, such as D. West, Thornton, etc. D West is an interesting situation because he worked his ass off while in the NBA, against all odds, to get where he is now. For example, he didn’t have a 20 footer in college as I understand it.
Thornton’s draft had some good players who were taken after Thornton, such as my fav Stuckey.
Older players are also an interesting situation because for them to pan out they have to be put in a place where they can perform right away given the investment and the shorter window. Not all teams are able to do that.
Was Josh Howardthat old when drafted? Didn’t know that.
Stuckey
I remember on draft day being a little apprehensive that we might have missed on him. Really expected him to take off after the Billups trade, but he’s been pretty disappointing in the early going this year.
I would disagree
He’s been coming off the bench until last week, whereupon he has exploded.
Just looked again
He has picked it up as of late, and has a higher ceiling than Thornton being only 22. Detroit made a good pick there…but they needed to…picking Darko at #2 seasons before has to be one of the worst picks of the last decade, especially considering who was taken after him.
It would be fun to think about what would have happened had the Clippers picked him
They would have been better last year almost for certain, and Stuckey would have had a year as starting pg under his belt. The team would have been much different. On the other hand, we would not have had our SF. Cat and Corey would have started all year.
Would have been interesting.
Continuing the thought...
Would have definitely been interesting. Having the heir apparent at SF in Thornton is a huge plus though, and last year we were better off tanking to get the #7 pick. It seems like Gordon was pretty much the best available and can play a little PG in a pinch, so I’m alright with it right now.
If Gordon gets injured, Thornton stagnates, and Stuckey turns into a star, that may change however.
Howard
4 year college player… 23 year old rookie. Also, like Thornton, ACC guy. Howard was ACC POY, which made it all the more surprising that he was taken 30th.
You’re correct that there are always exceptions. I can cherry pick Howard and West and Thornton to ‘prove’ that older players get overlooked, and he can cherry pick Rafael Araujo to ‘prove’ that older players suck. Of course it doesn’t ‘prove’ anything.
But you’re point about the top draft picks being the ones that become stars is exactly my point about Hollinger’s data. The relationship between age and stardom is not causal. LeBron James got picked at 18 because he was a basketball prodigy. Had he decided to go to college and play four years just for the experience, he would have been picked at 22, and been the best player that year. but you only get picked once, and players that are guaranteed lottery picks declare for the draft 99 times out of 100 (rightly so – they’d be throwing money away not to).
So to really do this study correctly, you’d have to control for all those guys. Take out the locks. Then who is the better pick, the younger guy or the older guy?
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 16, 2008 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Why would you take out the locks?
The locks support Hollinger’s argument. He’s not saying that older players shouldn’t be chosen, but rather that statistically they will have less of a chance to make it in the league than younger players. Part of this is because of the maturity factor influencing statistics, and part of it is because, I suppose, if your statistics and your game are inferior when you are younger, they will probably continue to be inferior as you mature. If you get better, you can be chosen, but you have a shorter success window in the league which impacts a team’s decision to invest in you, which again impacts draft position. Thus, if older players are chosen, they should typically be chosen later in the draft than younger players with similar statistics. Particularly b/c they will generally have a shorter window than the younger players.
Special Circumstance
AT was a different situation being that he had only recently committed to basketball. All you have to do is look at the improvement in a short amount of time and the athletic ability he had compared to the others.
I don't understand the point here
Presumably all 13 teams drafting b/4 the Clippers looked at that, if it’s true, and took that into account.
Teams make mistakes
“If it’s true…” Right, we don’t know what they were thinking…and given the fact that AT was older, he should have gone to a team looking to “win now”, but most of the teams picking ahead of us were perennial bottom feeders and needed to swing for the fences, so it makes sense that he fell.
So I wouldn’t say Thornton was grossly overlooked…supposedly philly verbally committed to Thornton at #12 but changed their minds.
A lot of the picks leading up to Thornton at 14 look solid, but many of them are still banking on their potential more than what they can do now (kind of like our DeAndre pick this year).
Talent
The obvious unspoken thing here is that talent is what REALLY determines NBA success – not age. The MOST talented players are drafted youngest. That’s why it skews the numbers. That’s why you would have to throw out the locks if you were looking for a true causality between age and NBA success. The overriding factor is the relationship between TALENT and NBA success and age becomes secondary. To conclude that LeBron is great because he was drafted at 18 is specious.
But let’s take an example. You say “Thus, if older players are chosen, they should typically be chosen later in the draft than younger players with similar statistics.” I agree. But in fact they are typically taken later in the draft than players with WORSE statistics.
Al Thornton was first team all-ACC. He was runner-up in the voting for ACC POY. He averaged 19.7 points and 7.2 rebounds.
Brandan Wright averaged 14.7 points and 6.2 rebounds that same season in the same league.
Thaddeus Young averaged 14.4 points and 4.9 rebounds that season in that league.
But remember that Talent is the key. College stats can certainly be deceptive. A guy like JJ Redick can be a great college player, and never make it in the pros, because he just doesn’t have the next level athleticism. But I hardly think that criticism applies to Thornton.
I totally agree that you pick the younger player if they’re as good. But the tendency is to ignore the older player even when they’re better, simply because they’re older.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 16, 2008 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
It's an inexact science
When you’re talking about 19 yr. olds, projectability is the name of the game. A 23 yr. old out of college doesn’t have near the room to grow that a 19 yr. old does, which you obviously have to agree with.
Then of course, there’s that tie-in question. Draft to win now, or later?
We agree - talent is the key and talent can usually be seen early
Yes talent is the overriding factor, and Hollinger’s point is that talent doesn’t change. Then older less talented players’ stats are skewed over younger players because of age and experience. So I might take a younger player with worse stats (Maggette – coming off the bench at Duke for example) over an Al Thornton.
Thornton is definitely an athletic player. Similar athleticism to Thad, no? And three years older. I’d probably take Thad in that situation everything else being equal. And remember the knocks on Thornton – his low rebound rate, his low basketball IQ and his low passing rate. In addition to his age.
Again, Thornton cannot be used in the same way by all teams, which might also have contributed to his falling position in the draft. He really had to be in a place where he’d get significant minutes early on.
No one is saying that LBJ is great because of his draft position. If I implied that I didn’t mean to.
Yeah, well he was projected to go 7, I think.
And he kinda fell into our laps. You’ve got to draft the best talent available, and in this case it was clear cut enough that position did not matter. He’s great for where he was drafted, but I think that he can be great on a different level too. That’s what we want to see.
by WestsideBrandon on Dec 16, 2008 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
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