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OJ Mayo is Coming to the NBA

With the news today that OJ Mayo is entering the NBA Draft, all of the key suspects are in place for the Clippers.  All except for Beasley and Rose I guess, but I would be completely shocked if they did not declare considering that they appear to be locks to be picked first and second, though not necessarily in that order.

And of course there are lots of other names still undecided, like all of the UCLA guys (Love and Collison have denied the LA Times reports that they are going to declare).  But with the Clippers picking somewhere between 1 and 9 (with 5, 6 or 7 being most likely), there are only about seven names that really matter:  Beasley, Rose, Brook Lopez, Anthony Randolph and the three combo guards: Mayo, Jerryd Bayless and Eric Gordon.

And not that the Clippers are likely to draft Lopez or Randolph, but the fact that they are in the pool helps simply by providing a big player for teams drafting ahead of the Clippers to take.  With the Clippers front court very crowded and their backcourt a shambles, MDsr's talk of picking the 'best player regardless of position' is a load of crap.  Assuming one of those four guards is available when they draft, about the only conceivable situation in which they wouldn't take one of them is if they end up second in the lottery, and whoever picks first grabs Rose.  Then you have to take Beasley over the other guys.  But at this point, I'm convinced that they should take Rose with the number one overall if the Clippers are lucky enough to win the dang thing.

Of course, it's still possible that things will shift more.  Gordon has been from the late lottery, to the top three, back down to ten, in the space of three months.  But the good news is that, once Rose makes it official, the four guys who appear to fit the Clippers' needs best are all in the available pool.

Mayo had to declare.  It's easy enough to say, as my friend Scott did the other night "I think Mayo would really benefit from another year of college - his game would improve."  So what?  His game will improve in the NBA as well, and likely faster.  And in the meantime, he'll be making $3M-$4M.  Could his draft stock go up with another season of college ball, so that he would earn even more money?  Sure, I suppose so.  And it could also go down.  Look at Joakim Noah.  Or look at OJ Mayo, for that matter.  Prior to playing a game for USC, he was projected as the likely first overall pick.  One year at USC actually hurt his draft stock, so a second year could hurt more.  And of course the real problem is the potential for injury.  I've said it before, but the silver lining for Shaun Livingston regarding his knee is that he didn't go to Duke - if he'd suffered that injury in college (he would have been a junior when it happened), it would have cost him untold millions.  

Love is, it seems to me, in about the same position as Mayo.  His stock is pretty high now, and there's no guarantee that it will go higher with another year in school.  Another year of college ball just lets the scouts carp about his lack of athleticism non stop next November through March.  He had a great season and a great tournament, and now is the time to declare.  Love and his family strike me as pretty savvy folks - they understand all of this, and he'll be in the draft.

Last thing on the draft - the Knicks won their third straight (!) Wednesday night and now have the same number of wins as the Clippers (23).  Of course, the Clippers swept the season series (d'oh!), so the Knicks need to win one more to help us out.  Given that New York is as hot right now as they've been while the Clippers are almost locks to lose their last four, it could actually happen.  Hello, fifth worst record!

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Xlnt analysis
I've seen Mayo live a few times this year, including against UCLA in the Pac 10 tourney - right up close.  He's a major talent, and was the best player on the floor during that game.  He can create his own shot, which is more than can be said for most prospects (and many NBA players).  He also plays defense, can shoot and is quick.  My only knock is his basketball IQ, and I suppose it's too early to write him off for that.  I would take him at 5 if I needed a guard.  

No quetsion that any sure lottery pick should go to the league.  

No silver lining for the Clippers re Livingston not going to Duke.

by Jax on Apr 10, 2008 9:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Mayo
It's interesting.  The things I like most about his game are things I wasn't expecting him to do in college - he plays defense, he's a great passer, he's unselfish.  If anything, he deferred too much in college, as USC needed him to be more aggressive.  These characteristics may ease the transition to the NBA.

On the other hand, when I watched him I only caught glimpses of the great off the dribble scorer he was supposed to be.  So I'm left a little confused.  

by Steve Perrin on Apr 11, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
that the most you can ask for of a college freshman is to learn the game.  He was asked to lead a college team at 20 years old or so having no college experience.  As I recall, he shot the ball way too much at the beginning of the year and then settled down.

Bottom line, he's got great skills.  He can beat you off the dribble.  he also can defer to others and play within a system.  Question is his basketball IQ.  I'd take that chance given what I saw of his skills.  

by Jax on Apr 11, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

More on Mayo
He averaged as an SG freshman 20 ppg, 1.5 steals, 4.5 boards and 3.3 assists.  He shot almost 3 threes a game at 41%, overall averaged 44%, and actually averaged .5 blocks pg.  All of this in the most competitive conference in the land.

Those are fantastic stats, particularly for a freshman.  The steals/blocks stats tell you that he's athletic and he hustles and is quick.  The boards are great for an SG, particularly one of his size, and tell you that he is tough.  

The stats just reinforce the fact that he is clearly a top 5 talent and has a great chance to be successful in the league.  

by Jax on Apr 11, 2008 12:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Eric Gordon
Also interesting stats. Another highly touted shooting guard.  21 ppg, 3.3 boards, 2.4 assists, 43%/83%, .6 blocks, 1.3 steals, 33% from three, 2 3PG.  

He's 6'4".  

Rather have OJ based on stats but his stats aren't bad either.  

by Jax on Apr 11, 2008 12:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Gordon
Gordon had such a collapse at the end of the season that he's scared a lot of teams.  For that reason, his stock is currently low, and is the more likely to be on the board if the Clippers are picking 6 or lower.

However, Gordon's poor play late could easily be attributed, at least in part, to the mess with Kelvin Sampson at IU.  He could end up being the steal of this draft.  He can flat score.

by Steve Perrin on Apr 11, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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