Brand Opting Out?

by ClipperSteve on Apr 16, 2008 3:32 PM PDT in News

From this morning's LA Times, in a season wrap of sorts from Jonathon Abrams:

Brand is ... believed to be leaning toward opting out. He has repeatedly said that if negotiations go right between the team and David Falk, his agent, that he will return. If so, it will probably be under a new contract.

"You look at security, what's on the table and what you have coming in the next year and what's on the table for how long," Brand said of his thought process. "For a new team, you look at is that team a better situation for you? And then you've got to look at salary again."

Hat tip to citizen Clip Show for posting this item in a comment. He went on to ask, "Am I the only one just the least bit worried about EB possibly opting out? I know the Clippers will throw max $$ at him if he does, but still it doesn't sit well with me."

I can't speak for everyone, but I see this as really, really good news if you're a Clippers fan. Here's why.

Even more so than Corey Maggette, Brand's options are extremely limited this summer as regards to getting paid (the exact amounts depend on where the cap ends up next season).

Memphis may be able to squeeze out a maximum offer of $16M - but why would Elton want to play there over LA?
Philly could offer him max money - if they renounce Andre Iquodala, which seems highly unlikely.
The Bulls could try to lure EB back to Chicago with a max offer, but ONLY if they renounce Deng AND Gordon.
Miami, the popular rumor for EB given that Riley tried to sign him once before, can't offer him anything unless Shaun Marion opts out, which is just not going to happen. (Even if Marion does opt out, they'd still have trouble making a max offer this summer.)

As far as I can tell, those are the only teams who can even make it to $10M this summer. Does anyone really believe EB would opt out in order to take a big pay cut?

And frankly, none of those destinations look more appealing than LA with a healthy Clipper squad (and a film business to dabble in). So unless he's looking to sign for the mid-level exception at the age of 29 and leave something in the neighborhood of $70M on the table, he seems likely to remain a Clipper in this off-season's market. Furthermore, nothing Elton has said would lead one to think that he is likely to go elsewhere. Players have certainly been known to dissemble where contracts are concerned (another reason Carlos Boozer is no Elton Brand), but Brand has been the most reliable of citizens throughout his career.

I also can't help but point out that the Clippers were nice enough to release David Falk's client Sam Cassell earlier this year. We surmised at the time that it meant something - let's hope it did.

My bigger fear is that Brand would play out this contract and become a free agent in 2009. Some intriguing teams like the Blazers and the Sonics and the Heat appear poised to have oodles of cap space that summer. Not to mention that Elton will be a 10 year veteran at that point, and eligible to sign a more lucrative contract. I hope Elton's not reading this, but if I were his agent, I'd be advising him to play this one out and look at free agency next year. The risks of course are (a) that he'll get injured again and (b) that signing a long term contract at age 30 is a lot more difficult than doing so at 29 (that may be - it's only one more year, but 30 is a pretty big psychological barrier for NBA GM's).

But my fear as a Clipper fan who wants Elton in LA is that right now, you can make a case that the Clippers are going to be competitive, based pretty much on the smoke and mirrors of 'Hey, we lost 320 player games to injury.' That proves that you were bad - but it doesn't prove you can be good. If Elton were to play out the final season, and the Clippers were to miss the playoffs with a healthy roster next season, the odds of losing him after that would increase exponentially. More teams with money would be chasing him. Those teams would be more appealing (can they be less appealing?) And the Clippers might be a whole lot less appealing. So the best case for keeping Elton Brand as a Clipper for life, and eventually having 42 in red, white in blue hanging in the Staples rafters, is for him to opt out now.

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Good points.

Thanks for the clarification. Knowing what we know about the market for Maggette, one would have to think the market for Brand would be even smaller/less appealing (as you point out). From what I can tell, if EB opts out this year, he is basically telling the Clips to give him an extension, and like you mentioned, that he wants to retire as a Clipper and have his number put up in the rafters of Staples Center. Lets keep our fingers crossed.

BINGOOOOO!!!

by Clip Show on Apr 16, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Thanks CS

Fine analysis. What I would add, based on the current era, is that the contract comes first, and the team second. EB can sign the deal, take his best shot with the Clippers, and if they don't get the job done in the next 2-3 years for whatever reason, he becomes Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Kobe at the beginning of this season, name your comparison--the poster child for "great player who needs to be teamed up with a couple of other stars," and he's traded to a "rich get richer" or "missing piece" situation. But I also think that EB knows that this year was especially nightmarish, that the Clippers have some really good complementary pieces.

I think that the emergence of Kaman was crucial. Rather than a question mark or extra weight, Kaman and Brand have to be itching to play together and to get into superb form during the offseason. The addition of Thornton is another plus. Maggette soldiered forward this year, and it should be interesting to see what happens with him, but there haven't been any real Dunleavy blips that I can recall, and the Ross conflict seems to be deep in the past at this point. Livingston is another interesting piece as well--as a guy coming back from an injury, and having a good view of Liv's rehab and hard work, and seeing Liv grow up over the past four seasons, EB is probably curious to see if the Livingston card will ever really be played.

So those are things that could all work out very well for the Clippers. And if they don't then Brand is going to get paid regardless, and he would be able to force a trade. It calls to mind the Kobe situation, when he didn't sign with the Clippers and their talented team. He took the Laker deal and wasn't exactly patient, and he was forcing the issue, but now things seem to be working out for him, I guess. I just hope that things work out for EB as a Clipper.

by citizen zhiv on Apr 16, 2008 5:55 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Good

I really hope Maggette and Brand could stay. They are my favorite in the Clippers. I am fond of collecting anything of these two playing together. Recently I got one: http://dealstudio.com/searchdeals.php?deal_id=97610&ru=279 , I think with the hardworking of these two guys, next season, the clippers will have a nice prospect.

by simonfigh on Apr 17, 2008 12:14 AM PDT reply reply 0 recs

As for Maggette

Corey just has too many holes in his game. and it makes him a loser. He is a terrible passer and commits too many turnovers. He tends to disappear in crunch time except when he tries to draw a foul but instead gets called for charging. I like him as a person and he's got a good image, but I think Thornton will take his place and be a more complete player.

The team has a lot of ifs, and we know the team will suffer injuries, as they always do, then Dunleavy and Lawler will have excuses once again for the team's poor play. Maybe I'll be completely wrong and they'll have a great season next year, but I kind of doubt it.

by saxmanager on Apr 17, 2008 12:28 AM PDT reply reply 0 recs