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Livingston's Contract

On a 15 man roster, the Clippers have only 5 players (Chris Kaman, Cat Mobley, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton and Brevin Knight) signed to fully guaranteed contracts next season.  (Pathetically enough, those 5 were the Clippers starters more than once this sad, sad season, so we know what we're dealing with if those are in fact the only players who come back.)  In addition to those 5, Josh Powell is signed for two more years, though his contract is only partially guaranteed.  And of course we know that Corey Maggette and Elton Brand both have early termination options which they can exercise to become free agents.  If Maggette and Brand exercise their ETO's, the Clippers will have 9 free agents among the 15 players who finished the season on the roster.  So it's going to be a busy off-season.

Some of these free agents will be easier to deal with than others.  In the case of Elton Brand, it's a matter of offering him a maximum contract and hoping he signs it.  (By the way, I've often criticized teams for 'bidding against themselves' for a player's services, but the rules change for Elton Brand.  You offer him a maximum contract even if no one else is able to, because it's the right thing to do.)  

On the other end of the spectrum, you don't bother offering Dan Dickau a contract (I think Dickau outplayed Brevin Knight this season, but Knight is signed, Dickau is not, and neither one of them was particularly good.  So there's no point bringing Dickau back.)  And players like Nick Fazekas and Marcus Williams and Paul Davis are relatively easy  also - they play in Summer League, they come to camp on make good minimum deals, if they make the team great.  In the meantime, if someone else makes them a better offer, maybe you guarantee the money for Ze Freak - but I don't see offering him more than the minimum based on 300 NBA minutes.  The other guys are welcome to go elsewhere.

Quinton Ross is likely gone.  I would suspect that even MDsr recognizes that the experiment failed.  Let Q try to find a good team who can use him as a stopper.  (It's hard to dedicate that roster spot to such a one-dimensional player on a bad team.)  Besides, with Brevin Knight signed and likely to at least play backup point guard minutes, you can ill-afford to have another backcourt player so woefully incompetent on offense.

Smush Parker I won't comment on.  I assume he'll end up in camp.  FSM forbid, he may make the team.  If it were up to me, he would not have been here at all, so I can't really speak to what they're planning to do with him.

The complexity increases with Maggette.  You make nice with Corey and his agent Rob Pelinka - you tell them how much you want Corey to be in LA.  And you start with the same 3 year deal starting at $8.5M you offered him last summer.  He'll want more, and then you do your level best to figure out if you're actually going to lose him for nothing in return.  Maybe you increase the offer.  Maybe you can work a sign and trade.  But in Corey's case, you definitely don't bid against yourself.  I don't think another team is going to offer him more than that 3/$30M deal, so it's a matter of maintaining a pretty strong negotiating position without insulting the guy.  (Of course, given Donald Sterling's attachment to Corey, it may go very differently.)

But by far the most complicated situation for the Clippers this summer is Shaun Livingston.  The Clippers have until June 30 to make a qualifying offer of $5.8M to make Livingston a restricted free agent.  If however they rescind that qualifying offer before the 30th, he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  

I had been under the perhaps wishful impression that Livingston would play some this season, so that the Clippers would not be flying quite so blind on his new contract.  But $5.8M is a LOT of money to pay a guy who has played in 145 of a potential 328 games in 4 seasons (and whose career PER is a less than awe-inspiring 11.7).  

It would be nice for the Clippers to maintain the right to match offers - but realistically it's not as if any other team is going to offer him a contract starting at $5.8M.  That's approximately the same as the full mid level exception, and there are other players teams can go after for that sort of money.  If the Clippers don't make the qualifying offer, Livingston becomes an unrestricted free agent, and would be free to sign with another team, perhaps believing he could leave the ghosts of Danny Manning and Ron Harper behind him.  But if they do make the qualifying offer, he could choose to accept it for a single season, hoping to have a strong 08-09 and cash in big time as an unrestricted free agent in summer 2009.  So there aren't any particularly good solutions.  

The question of loyalty will certainly come into play here.  The Clippers have of course paid him a lot of money already to play in fewer than half of their games these last four years.  And situations like these usually create a mutual 'need' in the actors - the Clippers 'need' to justify their use of the 4th pick in the draft; Livingston 'needs' to prove that the organization's faith in him was warranted.  So it seems unlikely that Livingston would go to another team, even if he were able to.

I'd like to see Livingston signed for less money, but more seasons.  Something in the neighborhood of 3/$10M.  It's more money for Shaun in aggregate, mitigating his worst case scenario of never being able to play at a high level again.  It also addresses the Clippers worst fear - not that he can't play (there's insurance for that), but that he plays, he plays great, and then he signs somewhere else at the age of 23.

But I have no idea how the Clippers will approach this one.  Like I said, it's complex.

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MDsr on TNT...
According to Art Thompson at OCR, he's doing some of the games on Sunday...

http://clippers.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/17/clippers-postmortem/

by Lawler's Law on Apr 18, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I believe you are right
about the QRoss situation...This was his perfect chance to step up and knock down those 15-20 ft jumpers...If not now, when?

by Lawler's Law on Apr 18, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I do wonder about Maggette's market value
Utah offered him 6/$42 back in 2003.  I suppose they were rebuilding at the time, but I am sure many teams will see him as a nice piece to add.

I can see Corey getting 5/$50 out there, but I don't know who has that kind of money.  Will the Clippers exceed that?  Remains to be seen.

I do think the Clips are in the driver's seat here.  I does depend on how reasonable Corey is.  

by mp on Apr 18, 2008 9:25 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

I suspect that he will bolt if he can get anything
close to what he's realistically looking for.  Why would he want to continue to play for a coach who so clearly doesn't appreciate him that he would play someone like Q Ross ahead of him?  

by Jax on Apr 18, 2008 9:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

you may be right
I am interested to see just how much Corey hates Clipper-hell and MDSr.

If he leaves for less, that will tell you all you need to know.

by mp on Apr 18, 2008 10:05 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Thats the thing..
I don't believe any team CAN come close to what he is realistically looking for. The only other option he would have would be for a sign and trade. With that, the Clippers are still in the driver's seat. Looks like a win-win situation for the Clips...lets hope they don't find a way to screw this one up.
BINGOOOOO!!!

by Clip Show on Apr 18, 2008 10:10 AM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Solid
Great analysis.

Reading it, I was thinking that 3/10 for Liv seemed like a good number, and I'm not surprised that's where you landed. 10 million is a lot of money, but the 5.8 qualifying offer puts it in perspective.  And I've said before that I love the 3-year deals.

Another approach might be to make the 3rd year a player option or team option.  I could see the number going up then, since it's not guaranteed.  If the Clippers offered 3/10, and I was repping Liv, that's what I would come back with, something like 3/12 with a player option the third year.

The Maggette situation will continue to be complex, colored by deals for guys like Rashard Lewis and Bobby Simmons on the one hand, and the possibility of playing for a strong organization on the other.  Again, if I'm Maggs, it's worth considering playing my way into money down the road on an elite team--it's a risk, but Maggs seems like the kind of guy who would bet on himself and try to work his way to success.  But even with that being said, the opportunity to get a good deal and stay the course with Brand and Kaman and the support of DTS.  Also, the approach of make the deal first, and if things don't work out you can be traded later, seems to apply to Maggs.  He's in the age range and has the skills, that if his deal is semi-reasonable, it won't be quite so weighty as the TT and Cat deals, which aren't the worst deals out there, but they're not especially tradeable either.

by citizen zhiv on Apr 18, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply reply   0 recs

Maggette
This is the contract for him.  He'll be 29 the first month of the coming season, and even a three year deal puts him trying to get paid at 32 going on 33 - tough sledding for an athletic wing.

He's going to want the 5/$50M deal that Clip Show is talking about (he'll really want 5/$60, i.e. starting at $10M per with raises built in).  And he may get it in the S&T.  (In fact, I wouldn't be overly surprised if he got it from the Clippers, although I don't think I would do it.  But with Sterling writing the checks, one can imagine Corey getting paid.)

Philly, Charlotte, Memphis, maybe Seattle....  Those are the teams that can scrape together the offer he wants via free agency.  But with Iguodala, Wallace, Gay and Durant as the incumbents, why would they?  I'll be shocked if he gets the FA offer he's looking for.

(All this begs the question, what is Rob Pelinka advising him?  Like Brand, it would seem to make much more sense for him to play the final year of this contract at $7M and test the waters next summer.  Of course, his value may be as high now as it ever will be, but it's just not a sellers market.)

by ClipperSteve on Apr 18, 2008 1:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs


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