The Changing of the Guards
As we project forward to next season, it almost goes without saying that the Clippers need help in the backcourt. With Elton Brand, Chris Kaman and Al Thornton almost certain to be with the team, and leading scorer Corey Maggette also a possibility, it's entirely possible that the Clippers four best players will all be in the front court. With Tim Thomas filling a role, Josh Powell signed and Nick Fazekas a pleasant late-season addition, the Clippers are deep in quality bigs.
The story is quite the opposite in the backcourt. It's easy enough to say that the Clippers received sup-par guard play this season. But it's actually pretty astounding just how bad it was.
Among the players who finished the season on the Clippers roster, five of them started in the backcourt at least once. (Maggette got one start at shooting guard as well.) Those five 'starting' guards were:
- Quinton Ross - 39.1% shooting: 7.72 PER: 44 starts. Among shooting guards in the NBA who took at least 300 shots, only 5 shot a lower percentage. And the position is called shooting guard for a reason - many, if not most, will make a number of three pointers on the season. Ross made 9 - raising his effective field goal (eFG) percentage to 40.4%. That ties him for last place in the NBA in eFG among NBA shooting guards with at least 300 attempts.
- Brevin Knight - 11.4 PER (career low); 40.4% shooting; 39 starts. Among starting NBA point guards, only Sebastian Telfair, Rafer Alston and Jason Kidd shot worse. But wait, there's more. Brevin Knight has no three point range - he made zero threes this season, a significant liability in a point guard. His adjusted field goal percentage (an easy to re-calculate 40.4% when you factor in zero three pointers) is the worst among starting point guards, the worst among point guards who took 300 or more shots... the worst. Period.
- Dan Dickau - 12.5 PER; 41.9% shooting; 33.3% 3FG; 48% eFG; 8 starts. Respectable offensive numbers, especially when compared to the others on this list. Unfortunately, PER has no real way of accounting for defense. It is of course difficult to measure, but it's not difficult to say that Dickau is a problem on defense. Put it this way: Ross' defense is theoretically supposed to compensate for his offense, but 39% shooting is a lot to overcome. On the other end of the spectrum, a 12.5 PER is not nearly enough to make up for Dickau's time on the floor. Still, he was probably the best point guard among the players on the roster at the end of the season. Which is truly sad.
- Smush Parker - 7.6 PER; 36.2% shooting; 22.2% 3FG; 40.8% eFG; 2 starts. Brevin Knight's shooting numbers look really bad, until you see Smush's. Sure, he raised his eFG a little by taking a LOT of threes (41% of his attempts as a Clipper were from beyond the arc). But he made only 22% of those. The net effect is a guy who had trouble making shots, was even worse from distance, and still jacked the ball up there. Per 36 minutes, Smush took 11.4 shots as a Clipper. That's 4 more than Knight. In his defense, Smush clearly was affected by his forced vacation - in his first 12 games as a Clipper, he shot under 30%. In his last 7, he shot better than 46%. But he was not good.
- Cat Mobley - 11.5 PER (career low); 43.3%; 34.9% 3FG; 47.2% eFG; 38 starts. The indisputable star of Clipper backcourt players, it's a little like being the smartest player on the Nuggets - the competition just isn't that fierce. So while Mobley's shooting percentages look positively stellar compared to the other guards on the Clippers' roster, they're still pretty anemic compared to the rest of the league. Among qualified shooting guards, he's 23rd out of 30 in shooting percentage - 27th out of 30 in eFG%.
Individually, those are some unimpressive guards. In aggregate, they're downright depressing.
The ostensible starters, Brevin Knight with 39 starts at point guard and Quinton Ross with 44 starts at shooting guard, were literally the worst shooters at their positions in the NBA this season when you exclude guys who just don't play. The superstar of the group, Cuttino Mobley, had easily his worst season in the NBA, and it's fair to question, at the age of 32, what he's got left in the tank. On a team absolutely desperate for scoring, he managed just 12.8 points per game - his lowest scoring average since he was a rookie. The fact that he will make over $9M next season, the third highest paid Clipper, makes his relatively feeble production even harder to take. Meanwhile, Dan Dickau and Smush Parker really shouldn't be better than third string in any reasonable NBA universe - and Knight has already spoken for that spot.
So it's pretty obvious what the problem is. The real question is what can be done about it. A thorough housecleaning is in order. Three of the five guards on the roster - Ross, Dickau and Parker - are free agents. So one hopes that more effective replacements can be found. Knight is signed for one more season for $2M, and Mobley for two more at close to $19M. So neither is particularly tradeable - Knight because no one really wants him, and Mobley because no one wants his contract. Nonetheless, Knight is still a serviceable NBA one, and there is certainly room for him on a roster carrying three point guards. And Mobley would seem to be more than capable as the 4th or 5th scorer on a frontcourt dominated team. If we assume Livingston will be back, that means there are probably three open roster spots for guards for next season.
Ideally of course, the Clippers would acquire starter quality players without giving up anything to get them. But that's not going to happen. Realistically, they need to be targeting at least two players, one at each guard position, who can be the primary backup or maybe even the starter, and some other bodies to provide depth who hopefully have enough upside that they could be pleasant surprises.
One player will come from the draft. But all of the likely suspects, even if the Clippers were to win the lottery and select Derrick Rose, are 19 year olds (Rose, OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon). It would be a lot to ask any of them to start from day one, but hopefully any one of them can be a solid contributor, particularly by season's end.
One player could come via free agency - the Clippers have their mid-level exception to use. Unfortunately, the pickings are pretty slim. The good guards are mostly restricted free agents (Monta Ellis, Ben Gordon, Jose Calderon) and would definitely command more than the MLE at any rate. Would you take a chance on JR Smith? On CJ Miles? Beno Udrih is unlikely to make more than the MLE after being waived by Minnesota and playing this season for the minimum - so you could make him an offer. But he's likely going to get the same offer or a better one to stay with the Kings. Realistically, even the full MLE is unlikely to yield more than a player to add a little depth at the position.
That leaves trades, and more specifically, sign and trades. Given the relative embarrassment of riches in the Clippers' front court, it would seem to make sense to trade a forward (say, Corey Maggette) for an impact guard. It still won't be easy. There happen to be a couple of big name guards out there with opt outs and LA roots (Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis), but the price would be steep for either one. A re-signed Maggette could be the main piece in making the cap math work, but the Clippers would still need to put in more, and besides, it seems highly unlikely that Washington or Golden State is going to participate in such a deal without a lot more incentive than that. They're going to want Kaman instead of Maggette. They're going to want Thornton. They're going to want the lottery pick. Do you do that deal? A more likely trade target might be TJ Ford, who is making $8M to back up Calderon in Toronto. When the Raptors have to pony up $10M to keep Jose, it seems unlikely that they're going to want that much money wrapped up in one position. But Ford may be too much like the unpleasant present for the Clippers - small (like Knight and Dickau), injury prone (like Livingston) and not a particularly good shooter (like, well, everybody).
Of course there are myriad other possibilities. Less ambitious trades with teams that have guards stockpiled (like Memphis or Portland). Long shot free agents that can be signed on the cheap (Salim Stoudamire, Gerald Green). Guys playing in Europe. The second round of the draft (the Clippers will have the 35th pick overall).
Even if it's unclear where they will come from, what's clear is that the Clippers need to add at least two, and hopefully three quality guards this off-season. If they don't achieve a pretty significant upgrade in the backcourt, it will matter little how good their frontcourt is.
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there's always Chris Duhon
I think he’d fit the Clippers pretty well, since all he’d have to do is not turn the ball over and give it to someone who can make plays.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 21, 2008 7:59 AM PDT
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Sadly
I have no doubt Duhon is on MDsr’s radar. Was he a teammate of MDjr? You know, Daniel Ewing worked so well for the Clippers, why not bring in Duhon? I hear Dahntay Jones is available too.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
Apr 21, 2008 8:37 AM PDT
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that does look bad
a team has to get production out of the guard spot.
I don’t think trading Kaman is a good idea. Having the two big men in there will be special.
I am not terribly concerned about Mobley. I still think he can pull his weight. Having someone that can shoot at one of the guard spots is very critical. Even if Livingston returns, he is not a shooter, either.
If Maggette can’t lure a guard here thru trade, I think they should just stick him at SG and make it work. If you recall, the team looked good at the end of 07 when the had Jason Hart, but were having Mobley and Maggette facilitate. Why couldn’t Mobley and Maggette be in the backcourt together. Not ideal, but what else is there?
by mikey p on
Apr 21, 2008 8:26 AM PDT
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Yikes!
Cat Mobley is not a point guard. There’s a reason the Clippers signed Andre Barrett. Cat is a poor ballhandler for a 2 guard. If he were at the one, opposing teams would play pressure and the Clippers would never get a shot off.
It’s intriguing to play Maggette at the 2, and if he stays, I’m sure it will happen quite a bit. It’s the only way to get Kaman, Brand, Thornton and Maggette on the floor together, and while he may have some trouble defending the 2’s, the Clippers will be creating at least as many matchup problems on the other end.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
Apr 21, 2008 8:36 AM PDT
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Depressing
That wasn’t exactly fun to read. The truth hurts, I suppose. Priority #1 is to be forever rid of Smush. He got booed almost as loudly as Brand got cheered his first home game back. Let’s agree that the experiment/experience failed epicly and move on.
Dickau isn’t going to be back. Ross is questionable, my gut feeling is that MDSr is going to push for Ross to get signed. As long as the contract is reasonable (ahem, cheap) I’m fine with it. Q can be a good enough role player. He’s already familiar with the system, staff, and teammates.
Knight and Mobley are both signed and not going anywhere. Ideally they’d fill the 3rd string PG and backup SG spots, respectively. Again, so much depends on Livingston’s recovery. Is he going to be able to come back and start right away? Are the Clips going to make him the qualifying offer (they shouldn’t)? If not, can the Clips sign him for cheaper but to a longer contract? Or will another team take a chance and try to sign Livingston away from the Clips (doubtful)?
Assume the (most likely) scenario that Livingston returns next season and there are no lingering effects from the injury other than needing time to rebuild strength. He can start at PG but only play 25-30 mpg. The backup PG will come from the lottery pick. Bayless (best fit – beautiful stroke and can create off the dribble) and Mayo will likely be gone. That leaves Gordon, who I think is too small, has an inconsistent shot, and makes poor decisions. The next few PGs are Augustin (puke – way too small, I am going to guarantee he’ll be a bust), Collison (still undeclared for draft, but just send EBSr and MDSr the game tape of UCLA-Memphis), and Westbrook. I’ve already touted Westbrook in the Love diary, but the point that he can’t shoot is well taken. He needs a shooting coach, that’s for sure. I guess plan A is to pray we somehow land Rose (1st or 2nd pick), plan B is to pray we somehow land Bayless (3rd pick), plan C is to pick the best PG available in the non-top 3 spot with the possibility of trading down for more value. Again, a lot can change between now and draft day with workouts and what not, so who knows. Let’s just hope that Livingston can play a productive, injury-free season.
It’s unlikely the Clips will find a SG starter in the 2nd round. Mobley is definitely serviceable as a NBA starter, as long as he’s healthy (no more elbow brace please). But there will be a lot of experienced SGs available in the early 2nd round. Courtney Lee sounds like a good fit for the Clips. There are pure shooters like Shan Foster and Richard Roby, or unpolished athletes like JR Giddens and Sonny Weems. Lastly I’m sure there are plenty of Euros gems out there if the scouting is right (I’m not holding out much hope though).
I think Agent Zero and B-Diddy are pipe dreams, neither will come to the Clips. Arenas will resign with the Wiz and B-Diddy will exercise his player option.
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 9:17 AM PDT
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We're in agreement...
I should have mentioned in the original post that Davis will be with the Dubs. He’d be crazy to opt out of $17M – he won’t do it, no matter how mad he is about game 81. Arenas I could definitely see going somewhere else. If you look at it from the Wizards perspective, they made the playoffs without him – can they really afford to re-sign Jamison AND Arenas this summer? We’ll see. The playoffs will definitely have an impact on that decision. But even if he opts out, the odds of him being a Clipper seem pretty long.
2nd round pick is at best a guy to provide depth.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
Apr 21, 2008 9:41 AM PDT
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Maybe some further analysis
I’m thinking, optimistically, that the BDavis situation might deserve some more in-depth (the inimitable CS) analysis. They have Ellis. BD is a fully legit big-time player, but is he going to fit as they move forward, or is he playing things out? I’m not saying that GSW would actively seek to trade BD, but they might listen to offers. And BD might be interested in a team with a different type of supporting cast that was willing to make a longterm commitment to him.
Yes, you don’t walk away from 17 mil. But BD has answered a lot of questions about his value, his game, and especially his durability over the past two years. So in some ways it might be one of those 17 now, or 5/80 situations. A lot of things could go wrong for BD next year. His team might have trouble keeping up in the ultra-competitive West, after falling just short this year. Do they have the pieces and the deal that they need? He could get hurt. Then there’s game 81, and whatever the circumstances were that led up to it.
Brand seems to be in a different situation. He was just hurt, and he wants to come back and establish his value again. EB has guys on his team he wants to play with, Kaman, Thornton, perhaps Livingston.
In the opt-out world, you could see the Clips going after Davis, to play alongside Brand, Kaman, and Thornton. But it’s hard to see EB heading up to GSW to play with Davis, Ellis, and Jackson—I don’t know how the Warriors could do it.
But I don’t know the real depth of the situation, to make an analysis. I just hate to leave it at “BD won’t walk away from 17 mil.”
by citizen zhiv on
Apr 21, 2008 2:16 PM PDT
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Speaking purely functionally
There are obviously two paths:
1) Diddy opts out
2) Diddy doesn’t.
For the Clippers to get him in option 1 it probably goes something like this. BD could be re-signed for up to a max contract. Because its also a new contract, he effectively has a no-trade clause. So let’s say he’s going to be signed for something in the neighborhood of 20M per to start. Worst case for NBA teams, best case for Baron. So the Clipper would need to be sending away roughly 16M in salary. So the obvious trading piece is Maggette and the 1st rounder. You probably want to re-sign Maggette for the max he can make without getting into Base Year status. So he can take up to a 20% raise so he could be signed for up to about 9.4M before you get into the diminishing returns of Base Year Compensation rules. Then if you win the lottery and trade the pick too that’s another 4M the first season. So that’s 13.4M. The Clippers can then include either of Mobley or Thomas to make the salaries work in even the worst case. If Baron takes a salary of like 15M to make the trade work then its obviously easier and you can pretty much swap Maggette and the pick for Baron. There aren’t many other scenarios I can think of where the Clippers have a piece they would part with AND even approaches dealing with the salary concerns.
So would the Warriors do Maggette and the first rounder, Golden State’s choice of Rose and Beasley I guess, for Baron Davis? Maggette is in their mold, but they already have approximately 37 small forwards on their roster. So maybe they do this deal strictly for the pick. Trade Baron out and go to war with Ellis and Rose as their PG rotation? Move Jackson to C and start all 3 of Maggette/Harrington/Jackson? Maybe Nellie is crazy enough.
For the option 2 its simplified somewhat on the front end. The Clippers would need to send out 13.76M in trade to match BD’s salary for next year. Thats pretty doable with Maggette and first rounder. Corey gets a bigger contract because he needs to make up the difference. But now the problem for the Clippers is you have sent away two resources of value for a guy on the last year of his deal. He could walk away and leave you high and dry the very next season. You own his Bird rights so you can re-up him for up to the max yourselves now, but will Sterling do it?
In either case, the Clippers can send along $3M in cash if saving money is a primary concern in Oakland. Working against the trade is that it would be within the division.
This is of course the simple trades with there being infinite options for multiway deals. I think the Clippers hopes for an upgrade now rest on winning the lottery. If they get that first pick, maybe BD, Arenas, Redd and even McGrady become available.
If they do not, the future might be on Livingston.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 2:51 PM PDT
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umm
It would be absolutely CRAZY for the Clips to send Maggette and one of the top 2 picks (if they get lucky in the lottery) for B-Diddy. Take into account: COST, age, durability, SYSTEM, etc. I would go totally ape shit if the Clips did this deal.
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 3:35 PM PDT
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Why?
This is sorta interesting.
COST, Let’s take cost off the table for 2 reasons. The first being that you and I aren’t paying for the players directly and the second being the Clippers are capped out with either player so it doesn’t matter competitively. Once you exceed the cap you are done, regardless of by how much.
age. They both turned 28 this year. If you are worried about the draft pick, ok, but the window to win is EB. As long as everyone ages with EB, I am fine with this. EB is the same age as both BD and Maggs. I see no problem here.
durability. Davis has played in 82 games 4 times, including this year. Maggette has never managed that feat. A reasonable argument could be made that Davis is MORE durable than Maggette.
SYSTEM. I think Davis could be successful in any system. He could play the 1 or 2 for the Clippers as needed and they could even go with some sort of theorhetical/cerebral Livingston/Davis backcourt with no clear 1 and 2. I mean play to play roles would need to be clear, but MDSr was obviously comfortable rolling Livvy and Cassell out there at the same time. The permutations of offensive and defensive roles between those two would be pretty much endless. It also clears up the SF situation with Thornton moving into the starting lineup immediately and Thomas is his primary backup with Mobley taking spot duty at both the 2 and 3.
There are alot of deals out there I hate. Arenas being one of them. But if the Clippers could do this deal for Davis, and I’m not saying they can, I’m absolutely for this.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 3:58 PM PDT
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Rose
I am comparing BD to Rose. Maggette is thrown in to make the deal work, but I view him as an asset only in the sense that he is a bargaining chip. Meaning that if we kept Rose (or Beasley?) then we can use Maggette in a sign-and-trade to upgrade the backcourt. I would really prefer to see Maggette gone next year so Thornton can step in.
COST – I understand what you’re saying, $BD = $Rose + $Maggette. But not so quick. Length of BD’s contract will surely be in the 4-5 yr range, so at least $15-17M over those years. I’d much rather have Rose’s rookie contract plus the shorter contract of whoever we SnT for.
age – obviously Rose is much younger than BD. And I agree, the window is EB. But let’s not forget: “I think history shows that after getting a big payday, guys work really hard the next season to improve and expand their game.” /end sarcasm.
durability – this is BD’s first full season since his first three years in the L. I think he is the same as Maggette – above average risk of missing chunks of seasons.
SYSTEM – How will BD fit in w/ the Clips’ system? The Clips, when successful, are defense-oriented. The Clips plod away in their halfcourt sets, almost never fast break. The ideal Clips PG is someone who makes perfect entry passes and can hit the open jumper. None of that sounds like BD.
BD reminds me somewhat of those system quarterbacks in college football, like Hawaii or the old Florida teams. I guess I’m giving too much credit to Nellie and not enough to his players, I don’t know… Can we get a discussion going w/ the GSoM guys?
Or maybe wait til the draft lottery.
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 5:27 PM PDT
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See that
I knew I was missing something. Turns out I was missing everything.
Ok, on the Rose thing. Now you are comparing two guys at the same position. To me its as simple as: which one will be better over the next 5 years? AKA The EB window. I’m pretty rookie averse, but you might be right. Its a hard decision and thankfully not mine.
As for the cost thing, here’s why I would work first to move Maggs and the pick together. If you can still get Terry for Maggette straight up, I think you do it. If not, I think bundling them is the only way to turn Maggette into an upgrade.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 6:34 PM PDT
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the perfect storm
The EB window is key to any personnel decisions. We are basing everything on EB signing a long term contract with the Clips. FWIW I don’t think the organization “owes” EB the max contract even if he’s earned it. It’s a business. EB had no problem signing Miami’s offer sheet. I have no problem paying him fair market value without any built-in loyalty bonuses. That is, of course, DTS can assure EB (and staff,and players and fans…) that he’s not going to revert back to treating the organization like a piece of rental property.
I have no problem packaging Maggette and our 1st, and even the future Minny 1st if the acquisition is worth it. We’d be giving up an uknown but pretty much all we’re sacrificing is a 7.5% chance at Rose. Other than the homer-stretched Love love, there’s no excitement for anyone that’s going to be available at our realstic 6th spot. So let some other team fantasize about winning this year’s lottery, and let’s pry away an immediate impact player.
But who? Are the Grizz still looking to unload Miller? Do the Bucks want to blowup the team, making Redd available? How about buying low on Hinrich? There are tons of possibilities.
And now the downer…EBSr is our GM. He isn’t exactly known to be creative. Or aggressive. Or a risktaker. Or sometimes, alive. So despite our armchair general managing, the betting man would say it’s a lock that the Clips will end up doing nothing significant – sign Maggette, draft someone, offer the MLE to someone. And even the optimistic fan can’t honestly say that’s going to be enough to seriously compete in the West without a combination of 1) Livingston resuming play as if his knee never exploded, 2) Thornton making a leap, 3) Kaman at 2.0+, 4) lottery draftee contributing, 5) MLE player contributing, 6) no major injuries. Let’s call it “the perfect storm”.
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 8:46 PM PDT
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A betting man
Would probably bet that is what would happen regardless of who the GM is. The salary cap (eventually) encourages making the safe bet. A few bad moves can set your team back years. But if you are in position to strike when the iron is hot, you win.
Here’s the trick though. Now they can’t really make a trade until draft day, so our lottery odds are our own. If the Clippers win, they have a chance to make some moves. If not, well lets hope Jax is right and Mayo is the second coming of…I dont know, a young Cuttino Mobley at least. If Mayo is even available at 6. If none of the top tier prospect guards are still available when the Clippers draft, look out for the Mike Miller shoulda couldas.
After that, look forward to Mobley and Thomas becoming expiring contracts the year after. That’s the next window to make a big splash. Fasten your seatbelts.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 9:33 PM PDT
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In point of fact
I have no idea if Mayo is going to be a good NBA player. I just like his stats and I like players who can create their own shot. He’s worth a shot. I suspect he won’t be available there.
Too bad they didn’t trade for AI when they had the chance.
by Jax on
Apr 21, 2008 9:37 PM PDT
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Yeah
Since he has elevated Denver so far.
You might be right about Mayo, and we may yet get to see.
by John R on
Apr 22, 2008 9:05 AM PDT
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hmm
It’s the lesser of two evils I suppose. Knowing what we do now about Livingston’s knee explosion, obviously everyone would take AI instead. But then knowing EB’s injury, it wouldn’t have mattered this season. There are a lot of “what ifs” for every team. I’d rank the Artest deal high up there in terms of “difference making”, and the Miller deal as well (not this recent one, the one from two seasons ago).
I am rooting hard for Livingston to make a full comeback. But the days of fantasizing about him becoming a superstar in the L are long gone for me. He just doesn’t have the “middle finger” attitude. Of all the things Cassell could have mentored Liv about, the nut juggling mode would have been the most important.
by supac on
Apr 22, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
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Some questions
Let’s say it starts with this:
Maggette opts out.
BD opts out.
Maggette opts out for a variety of reasons. He wants to try to make more money, possibly with the Clippers. He wants to go to another team and not play for Dunleavy anymore.
BD (maybe) opts out because he’s at top market value and he wants to get a longterm deal now, rather than having to play for one next year. Maybe he wants a different supporting cast, and with Ellis on GSW he’s a hybrid guard, rather than a PG.
Clips have Cassell’s salary off the books, and Maggs after the opt out. They would probably have to make some more moves to make a near-max deal for BD fit, including trading the lottery pick. But wouldn’t this work? Not that it would happen, but it seems like it might work.
by citizen zhiv on
Apr 21, 2008 4:03 PM PDT
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The Cap if only Maggs leaves
Ok, this is some serious theory mojo working here. If only Maggette opts out and doesn’t re-sign, I’m pretty sure the cap situation looks like this:
I’m not actually sure what would happen with EB, but even if he opts out and re-ups for a max contract I don’t think he could get too much more than the 16.4M he is scheduled to make next year. He is a 9 year veteran, so that argues he should stay and play out his 10th season to get the magical benefits that provides next season. But 16.4M definitely represents a “best case” for the Clippers. It could go up, but I’ll show by the end why that wouldn’t matter.
EB at 16.4M plus the Clippers under contract = 44.7M
Lets keep on our best case scenario here and assume Shaun comes back for 3M. That takes us = 47.7M. Uh oh.
The draft picks cost nothing, until they are drafted. On draft day the first round pick will cost about 3-4M and that money is instantly locked up. =51M average.
There are cap holds in place for exemptions you still own so thats another 8M for the mid level and bi annual = 59M
The Clippers cannot only not offer a max contract, they are capped out. So Maggette coming off the books for nothing not only doesn’t help, its basically a disaster. He is gone for nothing and they can’t replace him. Even if they renounce the exemptions, it doesn’t really help.
Corey really has them where he wants them here. The owner loves him and might be the only player in the league he would knowingly make a bad financial decision for. The Clippers can’t afford to lose him for nothing. Even in a sign-and-trade he has that basic no-trade clause.
The only way to simply swap both players is to get them both to agree to a sign-and-trade and for GSW to consider the 1st rounder sufficient compensation. We can sit around and imagine complex multiple team deals until the cows come home of course, and this might actually be the way to get things done. But unless EB ALSO leaves, the Clippers aren’t players in the FA market this year.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 5:02 PM PDT
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Added clarity
I should add that the cap this season was 55.6M. Also maybe one more point to show how bad it actually is. If the Clippers renounce their draft picks AND exemptions AND Corey’s Bird rights to get them truly down to that 47.7M number, its still no good. If the cap goes up about 2.5M to 58.1M, the Clippers could only make the one offer of about 10M since being under the cap only allows you to make an offer up to the cap. 10M is good, but about 5M short of a max contract for a veteran.
If Corey isn’t S&T the Clippers only have their first round pick and the mid-level and Livingston’s return to improve next season. This isn’t affected by if Corey comes back or not.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 5:23 PM PDT
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I just can't see it
Baron is a freelancer extraordinaire – he’s exactly the type of player that MDSr would hate and that would hate to play for an overcoacher like MDSr. Putting aside everything else, I find it very difficult to believe that he’d ever agree to play for him.
by Jax on
Apr 21, 2008 8:44 PM PDT
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Yes
We know you have this fantasy in your head where free agents won’t come to the Clippers to play for MDSr. But his tenure proves otherwise. Who has passed taking the Clippers’ money? Only broke down Steve Francis. Big whoop.
Noone can prove that BD and MDSr would fall in love. But we know what we know. BD is great down on the block and excels operating there. MDSr. LOVES his guards to do that. In BD he would get Cassell 2.0. Big heady guard who can score from anywhere and create. Davis did have a nice little career going for himself before he was a Warrior. He had his highest PPG season in dreadful blue and purple.
Now there is a limit to the point in talking about all this since I don’t think GSW does that trade. But to think playing for Dunleavy would be the tipping point in Davis denying himself a max contract and refusing to come home to LA? I just don’t know about that right now.
I never knew it was such a burden on NBA players to know and execute plays. How do these teams ever do it?
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 9:21 PM PDT
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I find it interesting that you have knowledge
of the inner workings of Clipper negotiations.
Baron is a great player. He’s also much stronger than Sam ever was. I just don’t think that he’d be a good fit here. I don’t know what he’d do if this were the only place he’d get the max, and I don’t know if he’s worth the max given his long injury history. He didn’t have a great career pre Golden State – he had an injury-plagued career.
It’s not that it’s a burden on the players to execute plays. It’s that the plays that MDSr asks them to execute are boring and predictable. Baron excels at freelance. Exactly what MDSr doesn’t like his players to do.
by Jax on
Apr 21, 2008 9:34 PM PDT
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k
No insider info is necessary. Just fundamental observation mixed with an open mind and an understanding of the cap rules.
When one decides what one wants reality to be and then makes their explanations fit that, that is when one makes mistakes.
If BD wasn’t having a great career with the Hornets, why did he get a max contract? It doesn’t add up.
SOME Clippers are clearly allowed to freelance. Noone can make the claim that Sam Cassell wasn’t allowed to do whatever he wanted on the court. Its also pretty clear he never had his minutes cut because of it. Same with Mobley. Again he got the nickname Blanket for a reason. Subbing in Baron Davis for the Sam Cassell job is pretty much ideal.
by John R on
Apr 22, 2008 1:15 PM PDT
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Baron Davis is a freelance pg
He won’t do well in a stiff, staid system such as MDSr’s in my humble opinion based on fundamental observation mixed with an open mind and an understanding of the NBA.
by Jax on
Apr 22, 2008 2:13 PM PDT
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to clippernation
I’d like to know what you think of thornton playing sg.
He is a better perimeter player than maggette . and keep maggette at sf to do his damage.
On the defensive end with all the switching that goes on they rarely end up guarding the guy that plays the same position. with thorntons quickness he might be able to defend most sg.
by cars50 on
Apr 21, 2008 10:57 AM PDT
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Thornton / Maggette
Offense is a non-issue. It’s an interesting shift in basketball, that although we talk in terms of 1 center, 2 forwards and 2 guards, the reality (especially on offense) is that most teams play 2 ‘bigs’, 2 wings and 1 point guard. Maggette and Thornton are both wings.
Unfortunately, I don’t think either of them has the lateral quickness to be a top defender on the wing. It’s fine to have one of those – it’s pretty tough to survive two of them for long stretches.
So, to your question, it’s sort of an either/or to me. Whether you call Maggette the SG or call Thornton the SG, the real problem is who takes the quicker wing for the opposition. Who guards Kobe? Who guards Kevin Martin? The reality for the Clippers is that Livingston, if he is fully recovered, will actually draw the toughest guard assignments like Kobe. But that leaves Maggette chasing a point – not a good situation.
Bottom line is that against some teams the Clippers may be able to get away with Maggette and Thornton together on the wings without paying too high a price on defense. But there are some teams where it just won’t work.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
Apr 21, 2008 11:23 AM PDT
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Livvy
Ideally Livingston comes back and is able to alleviate all these problems.
He guards the opposing star and is primary ball-handler. Thornton can use his length and athleticism to guard the opposing PG in the mold of Marion. If he gets burned for speed he still has a chance to block the shot and with a little brains he should be funnelling to Kaman and EB anyway. It isn’t that Ross never fails individually on defense, he just fails safe 100% of the time. If you got a step on Ross it was going left, 3 feet wider than you wanted to be from the basket, and going right at Kaman. If Thornton learned any of that it should be fine. Maggette takes the leftover, assuming he learns to stay with the man in the corner.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 11:29 AM PDT
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guarding the corner guy
Maggette hasn’t been able to perform this simple task his entire career. Why would he start now?
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 1:02 PM PDT
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History
I think history shows that after getting a big payday, guys work really hard the next season to improve and expand their game.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 1:10 PM PDT
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actually
Your sarcasm only works for the second (last) big contract. Players don’t quit after their first big contract . Look at Brand, Maggette, and Kaman – they all improved and expanded their games. Maybe the players stop trying after getting the last big payday, or maybe they’re already at the peak of their careers and aren’t able to perform better? The chicken, or the egg?
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 1:31 PM PDT
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Thornton @ 2 = bad idea
Q is both an excellent on-ball defender and team defender. He knows how to cheat to the side that doesn’t have help, forcing the penetrator into our shot blockers. Of course he’s also one of the best help defenders on the team.
Thornton has a lot to improve on defensively. First, stop biting on the pump-fakes. You don’t have to block every (or any) shot, just bother it. Then comes the team defense stuff, knowing where the defense is behind you, when to switch, who to double-team, etc. Thornton is quick, long, and athletic – so he has the skills to play good defense. It’s a matter of whether he has the intelligence to know how to utilize his abilities. Coaching will go a long way to aid in this regard. One major concern is that Thornton’s offense seems to suffer when he has to work hard on the defensive end, so I’d really rather not have him play out of position and having to chase a wing around. Isn’t it much better to let him play his natural position (SF) and work on defensive rebounding instead?
Slotting Maggette at 2 is an even worse idea. He’s never going to learn how to play decent defense against anyone moderately quick. We would also lose his rebounding if he’s running around outside the arc. Just imagine MDSr’s face if he plays Maggette and Thornton at the 2/3 spots against teams like the Lakers or Jazz. Maybe it’s fine against the offensively-challenged teams (who we should beat anyways), but against motion/cutting/movement offenses it’s going to be a total disaster.
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
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To date, you are right
I guess I was providing an optimistic assessment. Al obviously has a problem fouling 3 point shooters. Hopefully this part of the game comes to him with experience. Its been said many times that he seems to want to learn and listens. Guarding the second best 1, 2 or 3 there would be very few nights where he could lay back anyway, so someone out of him or Maggette has to suck it up.
I think its worth a try. To clarify one point, against a team who has a PG as a primary threat, you leave Livingston on them.
Using Utah as an example, when the Clippers beat them Maggette and Thornton both scored 27 points and held Brewer, Kirilenko and Korver to a combined 6-22 shooting and 16 points.
Its an optimistic position, but I don’t think its impossible.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 1:37 PM PDT
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Supac with all due respect
it’s not that corey isn’t going to learn – he just doesn’t have the lateral quickness required to guard quick wings. Thornton isn’t an SG.
by Jax on
Apr 21, 2008 8:46 PM PDT
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it's not lack of ability
I’m not talking about on-ball defense. I’m talking about rotations and switches. Maggette just can’t seem to figure out team defense. He doubles the wrong man, switches too slow, and leaves his man unnecessarily. Don’t tell me Peja’s too quick for Corey.
Agreed on Thornton, he’s not a 2 so let’s not force him into that spot.
by supac on
Apr 22, 2008 12:41 PM PDT
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Well
Corey is also required to double David West and other players on NO, which is a good team with multiple offensive weapons. Peja is devastating in large part because of the defensive schemes that teams are forced to run. Having said that, Corey can make mistakes on defense.
by Jax on
Apr 22, 2008 12:53 PM PDT
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"guard the opposing PG in the mold of Marion"
Wow. That’s a pretty tough mold.
Livingston’s defense will certainly be a key. I’m assuming that if he’s physically recovered, there’s no reason he can’t be the defender he was. It’s an intriguing lineup if you go that way – everyone between 6’6” and 7’0”, and lots and lots of length also. You can switch everything without fear of getting caught with a small guarding a big – because you don’t have any smalls! And Brand and Kaman guarding the rim. It has potential.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
Apr 21, 2008 12:02 PM PDT
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It is, but it was really just an illustration of what's been done
A mini-positional revolution for the Clippers next year? The best of the new school without sacrificing what traditionally wins?
Its not even a bad thing when Kaman gets hung out on the wing versus a PG.
Probably too much to hope for.
by John R on
Apr 21, 2008 12:25 PM PDT
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Great stats
Pathetic, but great. And after reading the QRoss exit meeting post, I’m surprised that Dickau and Ross weren’t on the floor together a lot more. Somehow the Cassell-Tim Thomas no-D card was never given to Dickau. But now none of it matters, except that by routinely putting Knight in front of Dickau-which made sense, but in the evolving emergency situation some flexibility was required-and allowing Cat Mobley to play hurt, the loser may turn out to be Q Ross. Dickau was never going to be on the team next year anyway, because of Knight’s deal.
The Maggette opt-out seems to be the most significant linchpin for the Clippers offseason. All of the dominoes will fall based on that, I think. There’s a lot to be said for the school of thought that pushes for Maggs to opt out, and then have the Clips figure out how to fill their needs from there.
I’m not excited about the draft situation, assuming that the Clips don’t get a top 3 pick, and even taking Bayless or Mayo at 3 doesn’t seem especially exciting. Packaging the pick as part of a trade is worth giving some very serious consideration. I like Westbrook, and probably like him better than Gordon, but I don’t like him that much, I don’t think.
by citizen zhiv on
Apr 21, 2008 1:43 PM PDT
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I would take Mayo in a nanosecond
He has fantastic potential. Westbrook? Not so much.
by Jax on
Apr 21, 2008 8:48 PM PDT
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What about Starbury?
I hear hey might be available if and when the knicks clean house.
by xtian on
Apr 21, 2008 2:18 PM PDT
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ouch
Even as a joke that one hurts. But I think you’re serious. So it hurts even more. Oh the agony!
by supac on
Apr 21, 2008 3:38 PM PDT
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It sure looks like a joke, but when you take a look at our current backcourt it doesn’t seem so bad!
i’d rather have the cancer stabury than smush or dickau for sure.
by xtian on
Apr 21, 2008 5:07 PM PDT
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