So, what can be done?

by John R on Apr 22, 2008 1:47 PM PDT

The Changing of the Guards is hot and heavy, and rightfully so. If there is one area the Clippers can stand to improve, well we all know what that is. So what can the Clippers do about it, precisely? The basic, presumably moveable parts are of course Corey Maggette either packaged or with the pick or seperately. The Clippers would then have the mid-level to spend. Obviously anyone could be traded, but a betting man probably has to assume those are the most likely candidates to be moved. The point of this diary, er FanPost, is to point out what those things can get you.

The easiest case is the mid-level exemption. The mid-level exemption allows a team operating over the salary cap to sign a player or players for up to its value for up to five years. This exemption can be used every year if the team chooses. Last season it was valued at $5.4M to start and seems to go up about $100k per year. Most recently the Clippers used the full exemption to sign Tim Thomas. Here are some players playing for about this amount in the NBA. This isn't a list of free agents making this amount, more an example of the level of talent you expect to find at this level of pay. I'm excluding guys on their rookie contracts since those are artificially fixed.

Speedy Claxton, James Posey, Anderson Varajao, Damon Jones, Chucky Atkins, Bobby Jackson, Rafer Alston, Jeff Foster, Vlade Radmanovich, Brian Cardinal, Marcus Banks, etc.

So that's not all inclusive and I haven't checked if these were all actually mid-level signings, but that's what you get for about $3M to about $6M. You get a piece. Someone you can count on to be in the rotation, generally, but not someone who will save your franchise. There may be an opportunity to upgrade the guard rotation, but this almost certainly isn't where your new starter is coming from.

The other opportunity is through trade. I said in CotG that the Clippers lottery odds are their own. What I mean is that, although it is generally fair play for teams to make trades once they have been eliminated from the playoffs, it generally doesn't happen. The problem is that you can't trade a player after the season ends in the last year of the contract. So for now I'm pretty sure Maggette can't be traded. And even if he is, why would you trade for him when he could turn around and opt out on you the next day. So the Clippers probably can't move the pick until at least draft day.

If the Clippers were to sign and trade Maggette on draft day, he could be signed for up to $9.4M for the first season without getting into poison pill rules. A contract of that size could be traded straight up for a player making $11.9M. Some examples of players in that lofty class.

Kirk Hinrich, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Josh Howard, Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, Marcus Camby, Nene, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, etc.

So now we are into some real talent. NBA starters for sure. So you just pick the player you want and find a willing partner and boom you can trade. Easy?

The Clippers can also trade their draft pick. If they trade it before the draft it has a cap value of $0. This is another indicator, along with the other issues of offseason trades, that the Clippers would wait until draft day to make the trade. By waiting until draft night, the pick will become a player signed in the neighborhood of $3-$4M dollars. Combined with Corey Maggette's salary the Clippers could have a total outgoing salary of (average) $16.3M. So you're golden, right? Boop boop boop. Wait a second. $16.3M still isnt a max contract. So to get a guy like McGrady, the Clippers would need to include still MORE outgoing contract value. There is another hitch too. The Clippers can sign and trade Maggette instantly, no problem. But they can't do that with their draft pick. They have to wait 30 days. So a trade like the BD example couldn't be finalized until near the end of July. The Clippers draft who the Warriors want. BD and Maggette sit tight. Then on July 30th, or so, BD and Maggette both do their sign-and-trade deals. The downside here is that would have Davis and Maggette out there on the market for 3 weeks. I mean you wouldn't do a deal like this unless everyone had agreed by draft night, but you just don't want to end up Boozer'ed.

So hopefully that puts the framework for the most likely deals in one place. If I made any mistakes in the CotG thread that I have contradicted here, my bad.

Main points: Clippers need to include more than Maggette and the pick to match the salary of a veteran max contract guy. You would need to convince the other team to probably take on Mobley or Thomas too. Picking 6th is probably worth what it is worth, but picking 1st and possibly 2nd is worth much much more. Don't hold out too much hope for a savior with the mid-level.

Here is what might be the final kicker. If Maggette gets a raise to more than $9.4M, he will become a BYC player. Significantly oversimplified: He becomes untradeable. So think about that. If Maggette wants to make that $10M per, he probably either needs to stay a Clipper, or walk away and get it outright from another team. He can't get it from the Clippers in a simple sign-and-trade. It would require some fancy 3 or 4 team footwork. And as already noted, it doesn't help the Clippers cap wise if he just walks.

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Good effort

Thanks for keeping things going in CS’ absence, JR. Not that I can really follow all of this, but I know you’re laying it out in comprehensive form.

I guess I have a couple of questions. I’m curious about the “max contract” numbers. Are they different for different players? Don’t they escalate over time?

I’m curious, I suppose, about how a team like Boston gives Pierce a max deal, then trades for Ray Allen’s deal, and then gets Garnett, and still manages to have a team and keep adding players. I suppose I know the answer with expiring contracts and complicated trades, and I just don’t want to follow it through. Same thing with the Lakers, with Kobe’s deal, Gasol’s deal, Odom’s deal, and Bynum to be extended. It seems hard to believe that Mobley and Thomas’ deals are getting in the way of the Clippers bringing in an elite player if Maggette opts out. But I guess I sort of follow the necessity for the sign-and-trade approach.

The thing is, it sounds lately like the Clippers really expect to make a deal with Maggette. It’s probably the best case financially for Maggette, even if they don’t overpay him. His downside is continuing to play for Dunleavy, which seems to have been ironed out for the most part.

This puts the burden on Livingston coming back, and fitting a guy in between Livingston and BKnight on the PG depth chart. Plus a draft pick.

Is it possible to get Udrih for the MLE, or is Sac going to give him more? Is he the best of the midrange guys? Liv returning, having Udrih as the backup, and drafting Gordon or Westbrook might work, but I don’t know if it’s possible.

I’m trying to get myself to give up on the idea of Baron Davis. I happen to think that BD would do fine playing for Dunleavy and with the Clippers. He’s not a killer on the pick-and-roll like Cassell, but he goes to the basket and creates points like Maggette, along with making other players better with passing. He can run a little hot and cold, as in game 81, but he can also take over games in crunch time. And he hasn’t played with a supporting cast like Brand and Kaman and Thornton. My guess is that he’s going to get better and savvier as he gets older, and he would jack up fewer bad shots if he’s playing on a team with an inside presence. There would be similarities to Cassell, but it would be a very different equation. But it’s also too unlikely to spend time thinking about.

by citizen zhiv on Apr 22, 2008 4:45 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Lots of stuff

Max contract – I kinda have to say it like that because a max contract for each player can be different based on a number of factors. There is a max starting contract, meaning the first year number, that scales with the number of years in the league. A 10 year veteran can get more in his first year max contract than a guy just coming off his rookie contract. Then once you are on a max contract you get raises every year. So a guy who has been operating on a max contract for some time has a max contract that is actually higher than a guy just getting a max contract can get. Then there are some potential further complications based on some contracts potentially being grandfathered in since they were signed originally under past CBA’s maybe? I’m not sure. Oh, not that it affects things too much, but I think a player literally signs a contract for the unspecificed “maximum”, then as part of the July moratorium nonsense, the league is figuring out what that maximum would actually be. THEN its possible that a player could conceivably have to give money BACK if certain parameters were met. When in doubt, I go here for player salaries. When thinking about possible trades, make sure to look at the 2008/09 column.

Adding players BOS/LAL – So yeah there is all this intricacy and one is either a nerd that is into it like me, or a normal person. Laying out a simplified case, once you are over the cap you can add players a number of ways. You can always sign a player for the minimum. So when you hear about so-and-so chasing a title, this is often what happens. You can use this as many times as you want in a season. Then with the mid-level you have up to that $6M or so to spend. Then here is where it gets interesting. To improve your capped out team, you really want a bunch of expensive expiring contracts to trade. Then hopefully you find that sucker who wants to cut payroll and will give away a very good player with an expensive contract. And you can trade and trade and trade this way. This is how the Knicks were created, combined with the fact that you can sign your own free agents for any amount you want. So to create a giant payroll, way over the cap, here’s what you do:
1) Always re-sign your own free agents to inappropriate salaries.
2) Sometimes trade those salaries to other teams for players with even bigger salaries.
3) Always burn your mid-level exemption.
In just a few short years you will find yourself sick with luxury tax.

Mobley/Thomas – I guess we can blame those contracts, but it is sorta arbitrary. The Clippers can pretty much choose to get out from under the cap by letting EB and Maggette walk. Obviously pretty dumb, but they could do it, if they were so inclined. It gets worse than that though. Before the Lakers traded Kwame Brown, they were facing a situation wherein he was coming off the books and the normal RAISES Kobe and Lamar Odom were going to receive were pretty much going to eat up the salary cap relief created. On a smaller scale, the Clippers will be in the same boat if EB and Maggette are back. The raises for them and Kaman will probably total close to $4M. So Thomas’ $6M just coming off the books if he walked in free agency wouldn’t really help. This is why I (and many) see it as imperative to try to trade expiring contracts. More than anything this season, missing that chance with Cassell, even if it wasn’t for Mike Miller, bummed me out as an organizational failure.

Udrih – The Kings do not hold Bird rights on him and are probably practically capped out, so you would expect to be able to compete with them on even footing financially. Both teams could probably only offer up to their whole mid-level. If that is the best player or best fit is way more complex, of course. The Kings could end up free agency players if Artest opts out and they renounce him. Theoretically. But trying to resign Kevin Martin will almost certainly kill that. So they might end up being competitors in that sign-and-trade market in the same price range as Maggette. Ouch, that’s another new wrinkle I have just thought of in this through discussion. Yuck.

So far:
1) Maggette probably can’t get $10M per unless its with the Clippers OR he leaves outright
2) Maggette and Artest both have opt outs and are both in the same price range AND are probably relatively similarly valued

by John R on Apr 22, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

u are scary

Thanks for sharing the knowledge. I am 100% sure you understand this stuff better than EBSr. And I am 110% sure you care more about this stuff than EBSr. Scary. Update your resume and try to get DTS to give you a consulting gig.

The biggest obstacle in a (pesudo)-blockbuster trade is finding a willing team. That team would have to 1) want Maggette, 2) be willing to pay Maggette, and 3) want to get rid of their (super)-star. Since we’d be upgrading (Maggette + ~6th pick), the other team would probably be rebuilding. Here are some possibilities:

RJ or VC – The Nets are clearly rebuilding, but do they want Maggette? Thorn isn’t exactly a sucker, so at best we’d get only a fair deal. VC too often just doesn’t give a shit, and RJ might be a Kidd-created star.

Redd – New rookie GM won’t have the cajones to trade the Bucks’ only legit star., but you never know. This is the dream pickup for me I think, but Corey’s going to veto. No go.

JRich – Jordan gave up Wright to get him, hard to imagine the Bobcats trading JRich so soon (admission of failure). Maggette and Wallace are pretty redundant anyways.

Marion – Riles would probably do this deal. But Marion doesn’t give the Clips what they need, and he’d also push Thornton to the bench (or shift him out of position to the 2).

Agent Zero – A Hollywood deal if it happened, probably most fans’ dream pickup. I just don’t see Arenas leaving Washington where he’s the “man” for the Clips where he won’t even be the man on the (second) best team in LA. Maybe the Wiz realize that they won without him and tell him to pack his bags and his blog and don’t let the door injure him on his way out and if it does we don’t care?

Peja – No chance with the Hornets playing so well this year.

AI – Jesus I didn’t realize how much he makes. Denver’s not trading AI anyways, for ticket sale reasons alone. Besides Melo’s already there so there’s no need for Maggette. Sorry Jax.

AK47 – It looks like the Kirilenko/Sloan feud has ended. The Jazz did want Maggette in the past, so they might be willing to do this. I don’t see how AK47 helps the Clips at all though.

BDiddy – Discussed extensively already. Ellis and Biedrins reups are coming up simultaneously, can the Warriors even afford to extend all 3? Regardless, I just can’t see the GS organization letting BDiddy go, and I can’t see BDiddy wanting to leave the city of “We believe!”

There are also the old trades rehashed. Maggette for Artest, Maggette for Terry. Maggette for Miller isn’t going to happen since the Grizz aren’t going to pay Corey (can we trade the pick for Miller, then let Maggette walk or SnT?) And finally there’s Bibby and the David Falk connection.

So apparently a lot can be done, but there aren’t too many realistic targets/destinations. I am fairly convinced that we’ll just resign Maggette, draft a guard, and use the MLE on someone like Udrih/Pargo/Arroyo. In fact I’m banning myself from wasting any more time on trade scenarios. Good luck to us.

by supac on Apr 22, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Wow.

OK, hi, I’m back.

I don’t have a lot of time right now, but a few quick thoughts. First of all, this discussion is spot on. The info is all very good, and the general conclusion is correct – trades are hard.

Maggette and the poison pill – I had forgotten about the BYC issue, but Citizen John R is overstating this issue a tad (I’m pretty sure – too tired to look it up right now working on little sleep). It’s wicked complex, but think of it this way – his cap number doesn’t go above the $9.4M – even if his salary does. But it doesn’t mean a player is untradeable – it’s just that the team is spending more money than they’re sending out in cap relief, which is a double whammy to that team. Still, if they’re motivated enough, it is possible (see Harris, Devin). So the conclusion is probably correct – the logical number is $9.4M, which is about a 10% increase over the $8.5M they apparently offered him last season, so it makes a lot of sense.

Yes, Sacramento could sign him outright if Artest walks. Also, Charlotte can come pretty close, so JRich is probably not an option.

The bottom line, implicit but perhaps not explicit above, is that for the ‘big fish’ above, another salary will have to be included. Would WAS/GSW/MIL take back Thomas or Mobley in a package with Maggette? Seems unlikely at first, but stranger things have certainly happened (see Gasol, Pau). Remember that Thomas and Mobley are only signed for two more seasons. IF they liked Maggette and the Clippers sweeten the pot with a draft pick (or two), a team might certainly do that deal. They’re still getting some cap relief (in the form of a two year contract for the ‘other’ player versus a longer team max contract for their own star), albeit in 2010. And they’d be getting draft picks. But obviously they’d have actually want Maggette at that price, since he’s looking for prolly 5 years, if not more.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by ClipperSteve on Apr 26, 2008 4:58 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

My math on Corey

I have Corey at $7.8M this season. So he can get a 20% raise before BYC rules kick in. 7.8 * 1.2 = 9.4.

If he gets a bigger raise then for matching purposes they consider Corey’s previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater.

So if Corey gets a raise to $10M, then they would use his old cap figure of $7.8M since it is greater than half of his new salary. At even that level the Clippers would not be able to take back an equal contract of $10M. Since 7.8 * 1.25 + 0.1 < 10. Just barely, but it is.

BUT if they raise him to only 9.4 then BYC doesn’t kick in. 9.4 * 1.25 + 0.1 = 11.85. They can trade him straight up for more salary if they sign him for less.

So there you go. Corey’s ultimate proof if he is willing to take less to get away from mean ol’ man Dunleavy. If he wants $10M he has to stay with the Clippers or find one of the few teams who can pay him outright. He can take a little less and help the Clippers make a trade, if there is one to be made. As little as 600k would buy his freedom.

by John R on Apr 27, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

A couple things...

It may actually be worse than that in one regard – shamsports.com lists Corey’s current salary as $7M, not the $7.8M on HoopsHype. I actually believe the $7M figure, as it reconciles better with various comments from the Clippers front office and the beat writers.

BUT, it’s still not a total show-stopper on any possible trade, unless I’m missing something else. No, the Clippers couldn’t take back a $10M contract in a one-for-one swap. For instance, if $7.8M is correct, they could take back Jason Terry’s $9M. The trade has to work going both ways – and the cap number will be different for each team based on BYC rules. And that makes it more difficult. But not impossible. The ‘within 20% plus 100K’ buffer gives you some leeway. If other players were involved to make the total salary package even higher, the buffer gets higher as well of course.

“They can trade him straight up for more salary if they sign him for less.” Totally true statement. But they may not necessarily want to trade him for more salary.

In a one-for-one with Maggette at $10M, ‘the sweet spot’ would be limited to a player making somewhere between $8M and $9M (I think – obviously this stuff is ridiculously complex). The other team’s math would be $10M less $100K less up to 20% (i.e. $7.92M). The Clippers math would be $7M plus up to 25% plus $100K (i.e. $8.85M) (obviously that window gets bigger if his number is really $7.8M). As I said, the sweet spot gets a little bigger if you add in other players.

If the starting salary really is $7M, then the BYC rules kick in at $8.4M. It’s pretty clear he wants more than that – it’s far less clear that he’ll get more than that. And the complicating factor of BYC rules and their impact on possible trades make it even less likely, for sure.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by ClipperSteve on Apr 27, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Coming around

Welcome back, CS. Looking forward to hearing from you soon, and hope you had fun.

I’m coming around to the sign Maggette, give Udrih the MLE, draft an SG (still maybe a tweener like Westbrook, given how he tests out), and keep all the fingers crossed on Livingston. This is partly based on John R’s excellent general analysis, Supac’s helpful list of options, and John R’s Bos/LAL blueprint.

Because you know what sticks out? The fact that Thomas and Mobley turn into a hearty pair of expiring contracts in 09-10 (man, I’m going to be getting old by then). So you have Brand, Kaman, Thornton, Maggette, maybe Liv and Udrih, plus this year’s draft pick, a year of being competitive and gaining experience with relatively few disasters—and then you have both a lot more answers and some flexibility.

The fact is, just by signing their own players and keeping them healthy and them being fairly good, and then possibly adding a missing piece with the expiring contracts, the Clippers could turn into one of these overloaded superteams. It’s just a question of DTS spending his money, and if I’m going to be getting old after next season, DTS ain’t getting any younger and doesn’t need to save money to wait out the increase in franchise value. And the path to spending all that money is pretty smooth, actually. He can sign one of his favorite guys, Maggette, during the coming offseason, and spend the MLE money, etc., and still stay below the luxury tax threshold, and over the course of the season he’ll be able to see what happens with Livingston, Dunleavy, and the new players. If the Clippers are tough and play well, then he backs up the money truck and makes EB a Clipper for life, and MD talks him into paying the luxury tax to try to win a championship.

No worries.

by citizen zhiv on Apr 26, 2008 6:10 PM PDT reply reply 0 recs

Sactown will likely retain Beno - he's their future PG

he’s why they got rid of Bibby. So forget about him.

Let’s get real. We are in dire straits. Our only legit PG is an unreliable injury risk with good upside. We have a legit starting SF and an up and comer (albeit at 25) backup SF. We do not have a starting SG. We do not have any bench young SG type shooters. We have what I would consider to be bad contracts in Cat and Thomas.

In this situation, we really don’t have a choice but to try to deal Maggette for a PG. We’re fairly desperate, folks. So prepare yourselves.

by Jax on Apr 27, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Sterling and the Luxury Tax

Never gonna happen.

Udrih is an interesting possibility, but that’s not gonna happen either. I’m pretty sure that Sacto will offer him the full MLE if they have to (he has no Bird rights, so they can’t offer him more unless Artest opts out). Sacto would give him the starting point guard spot with the team that saved his career – LA’d give him the chance to backup a 22 year old. Which do you think he’ll take?

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by ClipperSteve on Apr 27, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply reply 0 recs

What he said

by Jax on Apr 27, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply reply 0 recs

Luxury Tax

My point on DTS and the luxury tax was that if the Clips sign Maggs and manage to come up with a credible PG to back up/fill in for Liv (not a rookie, and better than Brevin Knight), and then the team of-here goes 1)Brand 2)Kaman 3)Maggette 4)Thornton 5)Livingston 6)Mobley 7)Knight 8)Powell 9)Thomas 10)Fazekas? 11)Rookie SG/PG 12)Backup FA/MLEish PG 13)Ross replacement/shooter minimum FA 14)Davis?minimum - plays well, competes, makes the playoffs and done some damage, THEN the Clips go into 09-10 with 1)all-star power forward, comeback player of the year 2)Kaman 2.5—all-star worthy? 3)Maggs 4)Thornton 5)Liv 6)08 Rookie. Knight is gone. Powell has an option year, at the minimum. If the Clips sign Fazekas and/or Davis they would be back for a cheap 2nd year (and both of them might be very good). MLEish PG might move to 3rd string PG, but he needs to be good so probably not. And most importantly… the expiring contracts known as Mobley and Thomas.

So say that this team, having been highly competitive in 08-09, is ready to come on strong at the beginning of the season in the fall of 09. They’re capped out, still under the luxury tax, but they’re missing one piece as they go against the top teams in the West. When the horse trading period starts, if there was a great player available, would they make a deal that put them into the luxury tax area, to try to get over the hump to win a championship. My view is that it all depends on next year and what they can do, if they can stay healthy and answer some of the basic questions. My experience is that we have no idea how this is going to work out, and this is just an idle optimistic scenario, and some of the obvious stuff will happen, and some of it won’t. I go back to the days when I was positive that the Clips would sign QRichardson, it just seemed so obvious, but then they let him go, brought in the expiring deal of Kittles-who seemed like a really good idea, damn injury bug-and it was the right thing and it worked out.

Just a little postcard from Club Optimism.

by citizen zhiv on Apr 28, 2008 10:40 PM PDT up reply reply 0 recs