The Knicks' Three Year Plan
In perhaps the most blatant case of a coach being hired to lure a player since Ed Manning landed an assistant's job in Lawrence, Kansas, New York is openly talking about the possibility of signing LeBron James to play for Mike D'Antoni. There are only a few problems with this scenario. For one thing, it implies that the Knicks will do nothing to improve between now and 2010, in all likelihood guaranteeing two more horrible seasons unless D'Antoni is even better than we think he is. For another, there are of course no guarantees that LeBron will become a free agent, nor that he would choose New York if he did.
But by far the biggest problem here would seem to be the math. The Newsday article includes this line:
As the roster stands, the Knicks will have just $28 million against the cap going into the 2010-11 season. It's the perfect storm; the best player on the planet is available and the richest team in the league has cap space.
A perfect storm indeed. What could be better? Too bad it's not even remotely true.
The $28M figure seems to come from Hoops Hype, though frankly I'm not sure how they arrived at their number. ShamSports seems to be a much more accurate depiction of the situation. The good news for New York is that the Knicks are actually all the way down to $17.3M in fully committed salaries for 2010 (that would be the 17.3M committed to Zach Randolph). The bad news is that they are at $47.7M in potential salaries.
Here's the thing: Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford and Jared Jeffries have PLAYER options worth a cumulative $28M in 2010. If the Knicks' plan is to ask them nicely to decline those options, I'd say they need a better plan. There is not a GM in the league who doesn't think all three of those guys are overpaid, and they know it, and their agents' know it. So those monies are as good as guaranteed on the books.
That brings the total to $45M - for 4 players. The cap is currently $55.6M - if basketball revenues continue to increase, the cap should certainly be up to around $65M by the summer of 2010. More than enough to give LeBron the maximum $18M or so he'll be due by then.
Oh, but wait a minute. What about the young guys? David Lee and Nate Robinson are two of the bright spots for the current Knicks, and likely to be at the center of any plans that D'Antoni puts together. And they will be restricted free agents next summer. If the Knicks want to keep those guys, there goes LeBron's max offer. Not to mention Renaldo Balkman and Wilson Chandler, their lottery pick in June, and their lottery pick next June. So this whole $28M thing is pure fantasy. It's much more complex than that.
It doesn't mean it's not possible that LeBron could become a Knick. What it does mean is that Donnie Walsh needs to pull off some pretty difficult deals between now and 2010. Basically, he needs to get rid of Zach Randolph for expiring salaries. Or if not Z-Bo, then two of the other three big contracts - Curry, Crawford and Jeffries. And even then, it won't be easy to sign James, but at least it becomes a possibility. Of course, there aren't many teams that want any part of those guys. So he'd likely have to throw in draft picks to get any deal done. That's helpful to Walsh in a way - if he doesn't have those picks, he doesn't have to pay them guaranteed lottery pick money, freeing up cash to sign LeBron. Of course the bad news is that he could end up trying to lure LeBron to New York to play on a 20 win team with a roster populated primarily by undrafted free agents and D-League refugees. And that won't be easy either.
The bottom line is, this will be an interesting situation to keep an eye on. Hell, the Knicks have been so bad for so long and with no plan at all, what does Gotham have to lose? A plan to be REALLY bad for two years on the off chance that they can sign LeBron is, I suppose, better than no plan at all.
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I was reading this earlier, as well...
and I was, of course, trying to think of trades..
I think Crawford is a pretty solid player, and when the Knicks made him the starting PG, he was looking pretty good.. I think if we can pull this off, we’d be pretty solid…
1.) Sign and trade Maggette for Mike Miller
2.) Trade Mobley, Thomas, and Knight for Curry and Crawford.. (Mobley + Thomas [16 mill] expire the year that Lebron can opt out [+ Knight = 18 Mill total])
Kaman
Brand
Thornton
Miller
Crawford
Fazekas
Curry
Ross
Mayo/Bayless/Gordon
Livingston
Powell
Davis
2nd Rounder
I know that Curry’s contract is fairly ridiculous, but in 2010, it’d be a fairly nice size expiring contract.
Either that, or WE try to go after Lebron.. LOL
(Did I mention, LOL?)
On May 20, Please let it be.. The number 1 draft pick, for the Clippers, and me.
by CLiPPz WeRD 42 on May 12, 2008 10:00 PM PDT 0 recs
It's interesting...
1) Maggette for Miller is not happening. Miller’s a better fit for them, spreading the floor for Conley and Gay. And there’s no way they’re going to take a longer term deal back for him in their current situation. So I’m thinking you can forget about that one for now.
2) This raises a REALLY interesting point that I had not previously considered. LeBron, Wade and Bosh all signed identical contracts that let them opt out and become unrestricted free agents in summer 2010. One can imagine each of them at least considering that route – LeBron because he has a chance to be the biggest, mot important athlete in the world, and he could do that more easily in a bigger market. Wade because Miami may suck for awhile. Bosh to get out of the NBA backwater that is Toronto.
Mobley and Thomas’ contracts just happen to be synced up perfectly with the craziness that could be coming in 2010. In fact, for a team like the Knicks who are hell bent on clearing cap space for that year, Mobley and Thomas are perfect. So I’m thinking the Knicks would take your trade in a heartbeat.
But why would the Clippers? Eddy Curry? REALLY? When we have Brand and Kaman?
What about Mobley straight up for Crawford? I still doubt MDsr would be interested, as much as he loves Mobley. But the Clippers would get a better scorer, who’s 4 years younger, and who can play at least a little point (as opposed to Mobley who is a disaster at the one). And the Knicks would get $10M off their books in time for the LeBron / Wade / Bosh derby.
Like I said, I hadn’t thought about the Free Agency 2010 angle before, but Mobley and Thomas’ trade value just went way up.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on May 13, 2008 9:34 AM PDT 0 recs
Would LeBron or Wade consider LAC in 2010?
It is LA, a bigger market. What will the cap situation be?
by mikey p on
May 13, 2008 9:52 AM PDT
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I'm working on it...
My thoughts in a post soon
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
May 13, 2008 10:05 AM PDT
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Probably
not LeBron…but maybe DWade…at least that is what I think.
by Clip Show on
May 13, 2008 10:19 AM PDT
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it depends...
on the clippers 2009 year. I dont think any superstar would want to leave one bad team for another,
by cantthinkofagoodname on
May 13, 2008 11:18 AM PDT
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