Miscellaneous Playoff Observations
The Big Three in the West -
From 2004 to 2007, Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio were the best teams in the best conference. Before Golden State shocked the Mavs in last year's playoffs, no other Western Conference team had won a series against one of those teams since Steve Nash arrived in Phoenix. And entering this season, the big three were widely assumed to still be the class of the conference. But the Mavs and Suns were both sent home in 1-4 series, and San Antonio is down 0-2 after a pair of bad losses to the Hornets. For Western Conference rivals, hoping to see some room at the top, the main hope was that age would catch up with these teams. The Suns and Mavs hastened their own demise by making blockbuster trades to get significantly older. Meanwhile, the Spurs own 'big three' remain great and plenty young, but their supporting cast is ready for social security. Too bad for non-playoff teams like the Clippers, Warriors and Blazers that the Hornets, Lakers and Jazz already appear to have taken over the top three spots.
The Hack-a-Shaq -
Gregg Popovich is a great coach. I'm also beginning to suspect that he's something of a weenie. For one thing, the NBA needs to revisit their 'sideline' interview strategy between quarters if Popovich is going to be so disdainful. I mean, sure, I disdain Craig Sager too, but it's not doing anyone any good to put it on TV. But this whole Hack-a-Shaq (and now Hack-a-Tyson) thing is just wrong.
First of all, look at the numbers. Without getting too detailed, the Spurs have one of the top defenses in the league, allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Given that number, it would only make sense mathematically to foul someone who shoots worse than 51.8% from the line. Isn't Popovich the guy who was righteously indignant at the Pau Gasol trade, that it was hurting the league, that it made a mockery of the rules? And he's going to have Jacque Vaughan fouling Shaq IN THE FIRST QUARTER? For basically no advantage? If the Hack-a-Shaq were worthwhile from a basketball standpoint, I could almost forgive the disrespect to the game and the fans. But the bottom line is, your defense, if it's any good and if it's set, should be getting a stop at least every other possession, so intentionally fouling only pays off if the shooter is significantly under 50%. Sure, if you're behind and you want to lengthen the game, you might foul Shaq (or Ben Wallace or Tyson Chandler or whomever) in the fourth quarter. But fouling intentionally in the first quarter? With the lead? That's bush league. And awful to watch. And not even smart.
Billups' Three -
This has got to be one of the most absurd situations I've ever seen. The NBA's complete disregard for common sense in the rulebook is monumental, from the 'leave the bench' rule to what is and isn't allowed as regards replays. This is a great example.
First of all, I watched the play, and the instant that Stuckey passed up his shot to instead pass the ball to Billups, I said to myself, 'Dumb decision, there's not enough time.' My internal clock, set to 5.1 seconds, knew that Stuckey should have taken the shot. When I glanced at the clock and saw that 4.8 seconds were showing, I knew that something was wrong.
I can almost understand the refs being bound by a rule that needs to be changed and not looking at the replay. But if the spirit of the rule is to not slow the game down with replays, we would seem to have violated that rule with a 10 minute discussion that must have gone something like this:
Steve Javie: Hey Joe, do you think that was 5.1 seconds?
Joe Forte: I dunno. Derrick, were you counting?
Derrick Stafford: Was I counting? Why would I be counting? We have clocks for that!
SJ: Well what did it FEEL like?
JF: Feel this, Javie.
SJ: Well, what are we gonna do? We're not allowed to look at the replay.
DS: We're in Detroit, Chauncey Billups is a great player. All these things say to me, basket counts.
Needless to say they got it wrong. Here's the thing. Clocks malfunction all the time. The ref blows his whistle, they reset the clock to something reasonable and they restart the play. So even accepting that the NBA rulebook short-sightedly precluded a replay, the painfully obvious answer was to take the points off the board, put 5.1 seconds on the clock, and inbound the ball again.
Because of the NBA's tendency to circle the wagons and clam up during controversies, I've seen no decent explanation as to why they couldn't simply have a do over. In their admission that the basket should not have counted , NBA President Joel Litvin said "NBA rules, [do not] allow for a re-play after a clock malfunction is discovered." The rules don't allow for a re-play? What does that even mean? Does it specifically DISALLOW a re-play? Why would it do that? 5.1 seconds... it would have taken 10 seconds to make the decision, 5.1 seconds to re-play it and it would have been an infinitely better decision. Instead, they talked for 10 minutes in order to get it wrong. Besides, refs re-play things all the time. Maybe not after a basket, but when the clock malfunctions, they blow their whistle, they address the clock, and they inbound the ball again. What is that if not a re-play? Oh, and then there was that game in Atlanta where Shaq was disqualified with his sixth foul even though he only had five. You're going to re-play the final seconds of that meaningless game, 3 months later after Shaq has been traded to Phoenix, and you can't be bothered to put 5.1 seconds back on the clock when you KNOW it's the right thing to do? Excellent.
But given that the do over option wasn't available, disallowing the basket was the next most obvious choice. Not just because it ended up being the correct answer. (My internal clock is good, and maybe it's better than Steve Javie's. But 0.6 of a second is small margin of error.) But in the absence of compelling evidence that the basket should have been allowed (which obviously didn't exist), you disallow it. Why? For one thing, the Magic players saw the frozen clock before the officials did - if you watch the replay, they're pointing to the clock before Billups releases the ball. So the malfunction impacted the play. Secondly, Detroit is the home team and is therefore ultimately responsible for the clock (the operator is supposedly neutral). After multiple issues in Atlanta this season, why the NBA would rule to benefit a home team in this situation is unfathomable. There's a pretty clear conflict of interest here, if a clock malfunction so distinctly ends up favoring the home team. Finally, even if you're not specifically allowed to re-run the play, and you can't, you know, count to five and satisfy yourself that the basket should not have counted, you can still re-run the play from a statistical standpoint. Length of the court, 5.1 seconds, end of the quarter. What percentage of those plays result in three points? 5%? Take the points off the board, finish the quarter with the Magic up one, let the teams decide it in the fourth.
So option 1 - get it right. Option 2 - do over. Option 3 - disallow the basket because of several common sense reasons over and above the fact that it is the right call. The officiating crew of course went for the worst possible option. Putting 0.5 seconds on the clock was of course the icing on the ludicrous cake, considering that the shot was in the air for a good 2 seconds.
But here's my favorite irony in this situation. The referees are allowed to review a play if there are zeros showing on the clock. Which of course there would have been had the clock not malfunctioned. Isn't that delicious? "We need to review the play to determine when the clock malfunctioned. Oh wait, we can't because the clock malfunctioned." By this logic, if the clock showed 0.4 prior to a play, but failed to start, they would not be allowed to watch the replay, because the clock would still be showing 0.4.
Where Kafkaesque Happens. Where Joseph Heller Happens.
I feel compelled to point out that throughout the fourth, until there were 10 seconds left in the game, the Pistons never led by more than three points. There's no way of knowing what the actual outcome would have been, but it goes without saying that allowing Billups' three pointer to count had a HUGE impact on this game.
By the way, the dead ball foul Javie called on Dooling was also crap. He blew his whistle when Hamilton fell, not when the contact occurred. There may have been a foul there (or they might simply have gotten their feet tangled), but Javie wasn't convinced there was a foul until Hamilton fell down, which had nothing to do with the play.
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Hack-a-Rebuttal
I think the Hack-a-Whoever is retarded. It’s not in the “spirit of the game”. It needs to be changed.
Having said that, I disagree that it’s not smart. In fact, it’s brilliant. Your 51.8% measure is inaccurate because that doesn’t take into account that playoff teams are mostly better-than-average offensive teams. And Phx is at least a very good offensive team. The Hack-a-Shaq takes away pseudo-fast breaks, psychologically wears down the fouled team (imagine the “WTFs” and feelings of helplessness when Shaq misses), eliminates the 3 pointer/play, and forces the poor FT-shooter into playing fewer possessions. I’d be the asshole that employs the strategy endlessly – it’s effective and very smart.
But the NBA needs to change this rule, because it really really sucks for the fans. Call it an intentional foul, 1FT plus the ball.
by supac on
May 7, 2008 1:43 AM PDT
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I'm not sold...
I know that Nash said something about it throwing them off their rhythm. Only if they let it.
As for your specific points:
Phoenix is the most efficient offensive team in the league. The score 115.8 points per 100 possessions. That pushes the mathematical break even all the way to 57.8% foul shooting.
As for fast break points, if they were only doing it when Phoenix had numbers, that would be one thing. Of course, having Jacque Vaughan track down Shaq, get the ref’s attention, and foul him before a Phoenix fast break has developed might be tough, and might result in the foul and the bucket. At any rate, that’s not what Popovich was doing. His favorite time was after a Spurs free throw, when he could get his hacker into the game during that dead ball, and back out on Shaq’s free throw. No fast breaks after a free throw, right? By the way, that also drives down the break even percentage. If the Suns score 115.8 per 100, I think we can all assume that the number is lower when you eliminate fast break points. I see now way that fouling after a made free throw makes any sense at all.
By the way, it only forces Shaq into fewer possessions if you actually think it’s hurting your team. If it’s not hurting your team (which it isn’t) you leave him in and welcome the fouls. Easier said than done, I know, but if I were the coach that’s what I would tell my guys for sure. 1 point on a 3 second possession in the half court against the Spurs? You take that EVERY time. 2 points in a home run. Only if the player misses both (which Shaq certainly can do, but didn’t do much against the Spurs) does the strategy actually ‘work’.
And of course it’s still, ALWAYS, bad basketball.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
May 7, 2008 8:58 AM PDT
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FT%
Shaq – 52.4% lifetime, 50.3% 07-08, 50% playoffs
Ben – 41.8% lifetime, 42.6% 07-08, 35.7% playoffs
It’s a much more obvious example with Hack-a-Ben, but I still firmly believe it’s the smart play to Hack-a-Shaq all day, any day.
by supac on
May 7, 2008 11:49 AM PDT
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They had to put the time on the clock
That knocked it out for sure as a reviewable situation.
Teh rulez book says:
RULE NO. 13
INSTANT REPLAY
Section I—Instant Replay Review
Triggers
a. Instant replay would be triggered
automatically in the following situations:...
(2) A field goal made with no time
remaining on the clock (0:00) at the end
of the first, second and third periods.
If they put the clock at 0:00 it still becomes a presumably reviewable situation. The rule does not call for how the clock got to zero. If they can rule there was some arbitrary amount of time on the clock, they can just as easily rule there was zero time on the clock. The rules say nothing about this.
So its really one worse. The refs had a chance to do the very right thing morally, logically, sportsmanly, bizarre NBA rulingsly and otherwise. Allow the basket. Set the clock to zeros. Consequently review the play. Properly disallow the basket. Quarter inconsequently ends or maybe there is a fraction of a second for Orlando which is probably equally inconsequential.
Was it cowardice on the part of the crew chief to do the right thing? Hubris? Or something more sinister?
Its almost not the lie, its the cover up. But it is the lie too.
Also, the NBA does allow officials to take a basket away if less than 24 seconds have elapsed. So in certain situations a complete do-over is exactly possible. It is a little more vague but this situation also seemed to allow it here. Less than 24 seconds had elapsed (obviously since there was less quarter remaining), the teams had not gone to the locker room or anything. Its a more iron fist ruling for sure, but I’m not convinced it isn’t on the table as far as the rules are concerned.
by John R on
May 7, 2008 8:43 AM PDT
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An excellent point...
Three dribbles from Billups, beginning in the backcourt.
A pass to Stuckey. A dribble from Stuckey followed by a shot fake and a pass. Finally, a three point shot from Billups.
I’ve already said that my internal clock went off when Stuckey made his pass. In watching the replay, it turns out that I was uncannily accurate. But by the time the high-arching three went through the hoop (which is the point where the clock should have stopped), it was well over 7 seconds. And one would think that NBA refs would know that 4 dribbles, 2 passes and a long shot would indeed add up to 7 seconds (or more than 5.1 seconds at any rate).
Just a horrible mismanagement of the situation.
By the way, could Dick Stockton have been more wrong and more insipid in his commentary?
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
May 7, 2008 10:27 AM PDT
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A dude who counts on the NBA for income
willing to say whatever is needed to side with his boss?
At least he could sell it a little. Give the impression he gave it thought. Instead it falls out of his mouth instinctually. Of course the basket is good. Of course the refs are Right.
We love you Steve Javie. We love you most of all.
by John R on
May 7, 2008 11:43 AM PDT
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The Question
Should Det be PUNISHED for their clock manager’s error? What if Stuck meant to shoot the ball, but caught a glimpse of the clock at 4.8, then decided (in an instant) that there was enough time to pass it to Mr. Big Shot (singular, because it’s only happened in one series)? Do we now have home court disadvantage if your arena employee screws the pooch?
We can all agree that Orl should not be punished. Their on-court play was arguably affected by the clock stoppage – see the players throwing up their arms pointing at the clock instead of playing the full 5.1 worth of defense. But should they actually benefit by having the possession end?
The three definitely shouldn’t have counted. But the quarter shouldn’t have ended either. Put 5.1 back on the clock and replay the possession. It’s the only fair solution.
by supac on
May 7, 2008 11:43 AM PDT
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What do they do in baseball?
What happens when a guy hits a fly to the warning track and a fan leans in and catches it? Does it matter if the home or away team is up to bat?
I really don’t know, I’m asking.
Stuckey passed that ball because he was about to get it stuffed. I doubt he checked the clock. He might have, but to me the preponderance of evidence was he passed out of desperation alone.
So after the delay you would give the ball back to Detroit to do over? Would you charge them a timeout since they would have effectively received one?
To me, the home team shouldn’t be able to benefit from shenanigans. So I guess I would say, yes I would “punish” the home team in a situation such as this, as much as finding out the correct result of the play is punishing them.
by John R on
May 7, 2008 11:53 AM PDT
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Hmm
I’m not pro-L by any means, just trying to play devil’s advocate. Especially since everyone is like “OMG CHEATERS!!” I’m not at all opposed to punishing Det (the home team) for incompetence by their employees (ahem, Atl). But the rule has to be in place first.
I would treat it like the shot never happened, make or miss. When the clock normally malfunctions, the refs pause the game, get the clock right, and restart the play. It’s the fairest ruling given the situation. IMO.
by supac on
May 7, 2008 12:07 PM PDT
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In baseball
regardless of the who is home and away, if a fan “interferes” with a batted ball that is still within the playing area (ie. not crossed the imaginary plane that exists at the top of the outfield wall in your example), then it is ruled Fan Interference by the umpire. “The ball becomes dead, and the umpire will award any bases or charge any outs that, in his judgment, would have occurred without the interference.”. The classic NO CALL of this situation, occurring in the playoffs (as is to be expected), was in the 1996 ALCS with the Yankees getting the benefit of a no-call when Jeffrey Maier clearly interfered with a fly ball that was destined to be caught.
It is pretty clearly spelled out in the baseball rule book, so there really is NO interpretation here. Now, the umpires making the correct call is another story. As in basketball, no video replay is allowed in baseball either…
by Clip Show on
May 7, 2008 1:14 PM PDT
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Timekeeper
The timekeeper was from the T-Wolves, for what that’s worth.
I don’t disagree that Stuckey might have made a quick check of the clock before he passed. But like you said, it DEFINITELY affected Orlando, as is evident in the replay. Replaying the 5.1 was the easy, obvious answer. It goes without saying that the clock, when there are 5.1 seconds left in a quarter, is going to have an impact. If Detroit players WEREN’T checking it, they should have been.
But I am saying that the refs got it completely wrong. Not only did they not get the right answer, they got the worst possible answer, and one that leaves open the door for conspiracy theories and conflicts of interest. Of course, that seems to be their preference. Maybe all the X-files stuff is working for the dial groups.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
May 7, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
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NBA officiating
Historically bad. It is an ugly part of the game. Officiating lways has an impact.
My boxing trainer always told me that the way to take the decision out of the hands of the judges is to just knock the other guy out instead. Same can be said here.
The only way to prevent the game from coming down to human error is to blow your opponent out.
by mikey p on
May 7, 2008 9:29 AM PDT
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The only way to prevent the game from coming down to human error is to blow your opponent out.
That’s exactly why I hesitate to ever blame a loss on officiating.
by Ben Q Rock on
May 8, 2008 3:21 PM PDT
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You're a better man than I am, Ben Q Rock
I read your post after game 2, and you were much more cool-headed about the officiating than I think I could have been. I see your point – there were still 12 minutes to play in a 2 point game and the Magic had every opportunity to win it during the fourth. But isn’t the converse also true? Didn’t the Pistons play poorly enough to lose? The call was huge and it was wrong and it was avoidable.
Having said that, karma once again proves to be a bitch. If Billups is hampered for the rest of this series, it’s over.
The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!
by ClipperSteve on
May 8, 2008 5:43 PM PDT
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