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Point Guard Deja Vu

Last off-season, I wrote seemingly countless posts about the Clippers' desperate need for help at the point guard.  When all was said and done, they drafted and traded Jared Jordon, added Brevin Knight and Dan Dickau (and Andre Barrett and Smush Parker) via free agency, and here we are a year later in an equally desperate situation.

To be fair, it's hard to imagine what they could have done differently.  They made a better offer to Steve Francis than Stevie accepted to play in Houston, but the Franchise barely played due to injuries and general suckitude.  In the end, the Clippers got Brevin Knight for less than other teams paid for their non-solutions at the point, so at least they didn't squander too much money.  Looking around the league, there is nary an impact point guard to be found changing teams last summer.  The closest is Beno Udrih who (a) wasn't even on anyone's radar last June, (b) is a free agent again already, and (c) MDsr tried to acquire before being denied by Sterling.  As for the others from the free agent class of 2007:

  • Steve Blake was so unimpressive in Portland that the Blazers went into this summer convinced that all they need is a point guard.
  • Chucky Atkins was hurt most of the season in Denver, and when he was healthy he couldn't supplant Anthony Carter as the starter.  And now the Nuggets are again looking for a point guard.
  • Smush Parker lasted less than two weeks in Miami, despite signing for 2/$6M.
  • Jason Hart went to Utah to be the backup to Deron Williams, and ended up being the backup to Ronnie Price.

One pattern that should be immediately obvious - all the teams that needed a point guard last summer (Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Heat, Cavs) still need a point guard this summer.  So we can rail against the incompetent Clippers management, but they're not the only ones who have this particular problem.  And exacerbating the problem is the fact that several teams are chasing a handful of mediocre point guards.

Still - what to do this summer?  There are no easy answers.  Here's the world of possibilities:

The Big Two

  • Gilbert Arenas
  • Baron Davis

Unrestricted Free Agents

  • Beno Udrih
  • Jason Williams
  • Carlos Arroyo
  • Chris Duhon
  • Jannero Pargo
  • Damon Stoudamire
  • Sam Cassell
  • Keyon Dooling
  • Anthony Johnson
  • Tyronn Lue
  • Sebastian Telfair

Restricted Free Agents

  • Jose Calderon
  • Louis Williams
  • Daniel Gibson

Trade targets

  • Javaris Crittendon, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Marko Jaric
  • Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Blake
  • Kirk Hinrich
  • Jamaal Tinsley
  • Marcus Williams
  • UPDATE Raymond Felton (hat tip Citizen clipschamps)

I hate these lists.  I mean, I made them, and I still hate them. 

Forget Arenas and Davis.  Yes, Arenas is an unrestricted free agent, and Davis could be one by the end of the day.  But as it happens, their free agent status is not particularly relevant, as the Clippers would not have the money under the cap to offer them what they want unless LA renounces their rights to both Corey Maggette and Elton Brand.  Since that is extremely unlikely, Arenas and Davis should only be viewed as available (because they may be less than 100% happy with their current teams) via sign and trade.  Even so, it's unlikely that the Clippers would be able or willing to put together the deal necessary to land either of these two.  Moving on.

The interesting thing about the unrestricted guys is that none of them will sign for more than the MLE, so the Clippers can make a run at any one of them.  But are any of them actually starter material?  I wouldn't give a roster spot, let alone the MLE, to anyone on that list other than Udrih, Arroyo, Jason Williams or Duhon.  It's clear that Udrih is near the top of the Clippers list, so don't be surprised if they put that offer out there tonight.  I'd probably prefer Arroyo, who is incredibly inconsistent, but knows how to run a team and can stick an open shot.  The rumor is that D'Antoni and the Knicks like Duhon - good luck to them.  And Williams has been almost as injury prone as Shaun Livingston, so I'd be hesitant to sign him.

The restricted guys are barely worth talking about.  The Raptors are going to match any offer for Calderon, not to mention that he'll command more than the MLE, so he's just not an option.  Not with TJ Ford in Indiana.  Lou Williams is an interesting possibility, but it's clear that the Clippers would have to overpay for him since the Sixers have plenty of money to spend right now, and they like the guy and need a replacement for Andre Miller next year.  The MLE would be seriously overpaying for Lou Williams, and even then I'm not sure you'd get him.  As for Gibson, he's not really the answer at point guard, or the Cavs wouldn't be having the same problem the Clippers have.

So now we're down to trades.  In theory, every player in the NBA is a trade possibility.  Maybe the Hornets will trade Chris Paul to us!  In the real world, I tried to limit this list to players on teams with a glut at the position (Memphis and Portland) or players that are known to be on the trading block already.

Tinsley is an interesting possibility, and certainly has NBA starter talent, but he comes with lots of baggage.  The rumor is that the Pacers will buy him out if they can't find a trade to their liking, so it may behoove the Clippers to try to wait them out and pick him up on the cheap.  Still, if you take that approach and miss on Tinsley, you could end up with nothing.  As it happens, one player on the Clippers roster who could be traded for Tinsley straight up is Tim Thomas.  Tinsley's deal runs a year longer, which would hurt bad, but I think I'd do a Thomas for Tinsley trade.  (Also in the buyout rumor category is Stephon Marbury.  It's not really worth thinking about at this point.)

Marcus Williams is more than a little intriguing.  He's always looked great against the Clippers, which makes me worry that I'm overvaluing him.  But the Nets now have Devin Harris (25) as their starter and they're actively shopping Williams, not to mention that he's only making $1.2M with a couple seasons left on his rookie deal.  And he can probably be had very inexpensively - say, a lottery protected first rounder and some meaningless bodies to make the salaries match.  Maybe we could sign small forward Marcus Williams and trade him for point guard Marcus Williams!  That would be cool.

UPDATE - Felton seemingly became expendable when the Bobcats drafted DJ Augustin in the first round last week, 9th overall.  As a rule, you don't spend a top ten pick on a point guard when you've already got a 24 year old former top five pick already on your roster.  (As it happens, last Thursday was Felton's 24th birthday - Happy Birthday, Ray!  We just drafted your replacement!  Oh, and how would like to be the Bobcats in this situation?  The Jazz got Deron Williams at 3, the Hornets got Chris Paul at 4, and they got Felton at 5.  As Agent 86 might say, "Missed it by that much.")  Hard to say what Felton's trade value is.  As a former number 5 pick, he's already making over $4M this coming season, which is pretty much in a no man's land as far as matching Clipper salaries are concerned.  And I think we can safely assume that Charlotte does not want former starter Brevin Knight back, after they waived him 12 months ago.

The Memphis guys are a mixed bag.  I'll assume we don't want Jaric (don't be surprised if he gets bought out if the Grizz can't figure out a way to pass him through to another team).  Conley, Lowry and Crittedon are all recent first round picks from the top (Conley at 4 in 2007), middle (Crittendon at 19 in 2007) and bottom of the round (Lowry at 24 in 2006).   They'd be stupid to keep all three, but then again this is Chris Wallace we're talking about.  The asking price for Conley will be high.  Conley and Lowry are both small, which is potentially a problem with the Clippers already lacking size at the position.  It's not clear that any of them are ready to start in the NBA.  But in a world of imperfect solutions, one of these guys may be the best choice.  By the way, you can probably forget about any big trades with Memphis featuring Maggette as the signed and traded centerpiece.  Memphis has more room under the cap than any other team - if they are enamored of Maggette, they can offer him the money he wants outright.

The Blazers remain fairly deep at the point, assuming rookie Jerryd Bayless can make the transition.  One would assume that they would like to keep last season's starter, the veteran Blake, to help Bayless learn the ropes.  They also have Petteri Koponen in Finland warming up in the point guard bullpen.  Rodriguez would seem to be completely expendable and very cheap, unless they plan to keep him around to make Rudy Fernandez more comfortable.  Sergio's likely to be even cheaper than Marcus Williams.

Hinrich is the biggest name, and biggest salary, on this list.  In many ways, he'd be a great fit for the Clippers.  A solid if unspectacular point guard; he can run an offense and make an entry pass; he can stick an open three; he plays good defense.  MDsr would no doubt love the guy, who's skinny and white enough to be his own son.  He would cost nothing less than a signed and traded Maggette.  But in terms of putting together a competitive roster for the coming season, it's the type of deal the Clippers need to make.  Of course, it's far from clear that the Bulls would be interested in taking on Maggette for the long term.

There are a couple of names worth mentioning in a post script.  Monta Ellis (restricted free agent) and Leandro Barbosa (on the trading block) are both shooting guards in the bodies of point guards.  They're terrific scorers, capable of playing some point, but neither is a true point guard.  I bring up Ellis simply because he's out there - but the Clippers have nothing more than the MLE to offer, and they can forget about Monta.  Barbosa on the other hand may be a real option in trade for Maggette.  The Suns would like an alternative to Grant HIll at small forward, and there have been whispers of a Barbosa for Maggette swap for a couple of weeks.  It's a less than perfect solution for the Clippers, but then again it's a less than perfect world.

That's the current point guard situation as I see it.  The next step is to try to avoid being overwhelmed by the possibilities, and to avoid 'analysis paralysis'.  Things will start happening VERY quickly at 9:01 PM tonight.  Calderon will be locked away, Udrih and Duhon may be off the market before tomorrow, the dominoes will start falling and pretty soon you're stuck with no chair when the music stops.  (Wow, what a crazy mixed metaphor that was!)  So you have to have a plan.  Of course, Maggette is a linchpin here.  After he opts out, it remains to be seen if he'll work with the Clippers in a sign and trade.  So first things first -

  1. talk to Maggette and Rob Pelinka about getting Corey more money than the MLE on a decent team like Chicago or Phoenix
  2. make an offer to Udrih (if he's gone, move to Arroyo) - don't make an offer to a restricted free agent like Lou Williams until you've exhausted other options, as that offer can tie your hands to do anything else while the other team decides whether or not to match
  3. get on the phones to discuss offers for Marcus Williams, Rodriguez, Crittendon and Tinsley

Whatever you do, don't get caught napping.  There may not be any saviors out there, but the guys who are there will be gone before you know it.

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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point guards

Dont leave out my man raymond felton. Ive liked him ever since his tar heel days and would definitely rather have him here instead of udrih. Ive read somewhere that larry brown is trying to revamp that roster and has put felton and gerald wallace on the block. Felton has been OK in the nba so far, would love to see him become a solid nba player as a clipper.

by clipschamps on Jun 30, 2008 3:49 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks CS

I feel much better now. Not about the Clips PG situation, but about having the information necessary going into the sweepstakes.

I was thinking that the Clips might make a run at Calderon and then go back to Maggette, but from what you say it seems like the plan is to make the offer to Udrih right away.

And I wonder if the Chicago situation deserves more analysis. We’ve heard a lot about how they’re shopping Hinrich (and what a nice fit he is for the Clips, which I agree with), but only recently has Duhon’s name come up, and he’s the UFA. They have to figure out Deng and Gordon. You would think that the Bulls would like to make a deal for Hinrich and get rid of his salary, and resign Duhon for a considerably lesser and reasonable amount. But if the Knicks are chasing Duhon it might make things more complicated. Which makes me wonder if Mobley and Knight for Hinrich might not be a pretty good deal. I’m not sure why it’s always Maggette who comes up in conversations about Chicago.

Didn’t see Luc Ridnour or Earl Watson anywhere on the list. And you mention a buyout of Jaric, which would make sense if he was a pure PG, but with Miller gone he can be that 2-3 defender backup, so they’d probably keep him on the roster, even if it’s just to see if he can be moved in a trade, perhaps if somebody wants Conley bad enough. They have an Antoine Walker contract too. Kind of a mess.

Again, great post, and pretty funny to remember that you were doing the exact same thing last year. As bad as the Clippers fortunes have been, it’s always worth remembering that they luck out sometimes, as in the Steve Francis situation and even more memorably, when Olowokandi turned down his extension.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 4:34 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The plan

To be clear, this is what I BELIEVE the plan is. I have no idea what the plan actually is. But given the musical chairs metaphor, the can’t afford to make a play for Calderon (an unrealistic target anyway) and end up losing out on everything else.

I’m not sold on Duhon. A backup at best, maybe a third stringer, maybe should be in Europe with fellow Dukie Ewing. My opinion may be colored by Blog-a-bull Matt’s visceral hatred of the guy.

Luke (not Luc, he’s American, not French) Ridnour and Earl Watson are always there. They’ve been in trade rumors for 5 seasons now, and they’ll be in trade rumors 5 seasons from now. I grow weary of them. Still, you’re correct, three is a decided crowd in Seattle OKC.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jun 30, 2008 4:45 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know

Yeah, obviously it’s just an idea of what might happen.

What do you think about possible deals with Mobley?

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 4:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One more category...?

Great post. Agree with Zhiv about Watson and Ridnour, though I think they stand in the back of the class.
Maybe you should throw in another category (you could call it the “ridiculous” category or “the almost ludicrous category” or something like that. Guys like Stephon Marbury or Sam Cassel would qualify. I can’t decide if this is a terrible idea, but if you could pry a young pg out of Memphis (like Crittendon or “the other” Marcus Williams) would bringing back Sam for yet-another-final-year be just plain dumb (although I guess that means your carrying 4 pg’s into the season)?
I did enjoy that musical chairs metaphor. I think we witnessed that very event last year with the desperate, doomed Steve Francis auction.
Outside the topic, I realize now that Eric Gordon reminds me of another former Clipper number one draft pick… drum roll: Terry Dehere. Good college player, too small for a two guard, good shot, and they tried to make him into a point, which… was… a… disaster. I think Gordon and Maggette might play exactly the same position: they are both perfect sixth men.

by swamigusto on Jun 30, 2008 4:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fascinating

So interesting to read the “Point Guard Roulette” post from a year ago. Mercifully I believe I was in Europe at the time, so I didn’t have to read myself babbling like I have been all week this year.

It also contains an early Stuckey sighting, which is amusing. The ClipsNation archives could be really amusing 10 or 15 years from now.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 4:48 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

My first Stuckey post: July 19, 2007

“Um, Maggette is far better than Bonzi/Battier

The Clips are not going to trade Corey, and as mp said, they will probably try to tough it out and pick up one of the remaining available pgs.

They should have taken Stuckey over Thornton IMO.”

by Jax on Jun 30, 2008 4:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah

I was a little disappointed that the honor for the first Stuckey post went to pookeyguru, and you were a good two weeks behind the curve, Jax. I thought you would like the “I have to plead ignorance on Stuckey” line from CS. It’s interesting to see that Thornton was also a bit of a surprise and unknown, because no one thought he would still be on the board at 14. Looking at it from that immediate post-draft perspective, the Clips were actually very unClipperlike, because Thornton was an all-rookie team success, not a complete whiff like Korolev, and right after that they dodged the Steve Francis bullet. Of course, we know now that this was all just positioning the curse to set up Brand’s injury.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 5:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Getting some news

Maggs opt-out is official. Still waiting for word on Brand. Tonight, supposedly. Delay might mean that they’re working on a deal. Jamison just made deal with Wizards: 4yrs/50 million. Speed of Jamison deal might bode well for quick info on Brand, but 12.5 mil a year is not going to help with making a reasonable deal with Maggette. And exactly what is a reasonable deal for Maggette? 5 yrs/45 mil?

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is a trick here right?

I mean, technically anything above the mid-level will be unmatchable by all but maybe 2 teams.

There isn’t really a reason not to play hardball with Maggette, except that the owner is so soft on him.

I’d offer 5/45 and stage it like Hinrich’s deal. Front load it, so that when his athleticism starts to fail you aren’t stuck with a bull with no horns, but will have a reasonable expiring contract to trade.

If he wants more than 5/45, good luck in the free market.

by John R on Jun 30, 2008 5:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ross

But now with Gordon, Mobley, and Thornton on the roster, and Livingston possibly coming back as a defender, I don’t resign Q Ross. It seems like making a deal with Livingston on the cheap and for the short term (2 years with a player option for a 3rd?) is a much higher priority. If Ross can make a pretty good deal for himself, good for him. He’s too far down on the priority list for the Clips to be worrying about him in the first wave or two—not to mention that they don’t want to use up the cap space while Maggs is off the books. If he’s still around and the Clips have figured out their more pressing needs, then it might be a topic.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 5:43 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trade exception?

“As a former number 5 pick, he’s already making over $4M this coming season, which is pretty much in a no man’s land as far as matching Clipper salaries are concerned. And I think we can safely assume that Charlotte does not want former starter Brevin Knight back, after they waived him 12 months ago.”

Maggette opting out leaves the team with $10M in cap space. Would it be possible to simply absorb Felton’s contract and send back $4M of trade exception? The Bobcats did it to aquire Jason Ricahrdson from the Warriors (though GS was desperate to unload because to the horrible contracts Mullin had inked) for Wright. I’m just wondering if this might be a course of action for the Clippers. If the Warriors see Biedrens and Ellis as their future, then maybe they’d be open to unloading him for another trade exception. Or is this just wishful thinking?

by OhMeOhMy on Jun 30, 2008 5:27 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

E.B.

Well, the Times is reporting Elton joined Corey and opted out, so here we go.

by Jonee on Jun 30, 2008 6:26 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay...

CS was saying that an EB opt out was probably a good thing—with the most likely result being that he would sign a deal where he gets the most money, which is with the Clippers. The fact that it took a little longer than the Maggette opt-out, which was more automatic and which is more complicated, may be a sign that the parties were trying to put the finishing touches on the deal. That, and well, a difference of 10 million dollars between what Brand is leaving on the table and what Maggette is leaving.

So let’s hope that it’s good news. It could be the forerunner of a sign-and-trade as well. That would certainly shake things up, but at least something would be happening. Did Baron Davis opt out? CS told us to dismiss any thoughts of BD as a Clipper, and I’ll take his word for it.

Nervous time.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2008 6:33 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All indications from EB and FAlk

are that they are resigning with the Clips..
BDavis has also just opted out. How do we clear up $$ to make him a legit offer?

by Clip Show on Jun 30, 2008 6:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PGs

Our PG problem is exacerbated by the fact that we don’t even have a good enough BACKUP right now. Knight is a third stringer, period. Livvy hasn’t recovered yet and it’s ill-advised to count on him for even marginal minutes next season. So unless in the unlikely event that Mike Taylor or a random summer league invitee impresses enough to win the backup role, we’re in the market for TWO PGs.

That’s a nice and comprehensive list of PG options there, CS. I don’t want to repeat what you’ve already wrote. Suffice it to say that we’re mostly on the same page in terms of eliminations.

The first priority is to nab a solid NBA-caliber PG – with experience. The list includes Hinrich and…nobody else. But the Bulls don’t want nor need Maggs, so the only way to get Hinrich for Maggette is by using a third team (Phx, Barbosa?) Udrih would be second choice not because he’s oh-so-great but because the options are oh-so-not. It speaks volumes that I actually consider Tinsley the third best realistic option for us here. The other vets are either forked or sucky or both.

For the backup spot, we need someone with the potential to grow into a legit starter, not just a career backup. The best candidate is Marcus “laptop” Williams. We won’t get Conley – we’re not the Lakers. I’ve always liked Williams since the UConn thievery days. It always seems like he’s calm out on the court and in control of the game, but others might read that as being lackadaisical. If not “laptop”, then I’d want Lowry. I know he’s vertically challenged but he’s got a degree of toughness that the Clips are lacking.

We’re in a much tougher spot than last year going into the season. At least we had who we thought was Sam Cassell, even though it turned out to be a shell. I can’t imagine making the playoffs with most of the PG options out there.

by supac on Jun 30, 2008 7:27 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i have it from a source that brand opted out to help the clips get some more players…baron davis just opted out to and the clippers are after him. Because brand is our own guy we can sign baron and then go back and sign brand…lets keep our fingers crossed

by cliprboy on Jun 30, 2008 7:34 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was wondering

if the Clips could make a run at BDavis. That would be HUGE!!!!

by Clip Show on Jun 30, 2008 7:45 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

David Opt-Out

Just wondering where you heard that Baron Davis opted out…is it official?

by benoit benjamin on Jun 30, 2008 8:11 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Seems to me that EB is forcing their hand

Either they sign BD or someone of his caliber (not Hinrich) or he’s gone (perhaps via sign and trade). That’s what I read into Falk’s message.

It’s about time.

by Jax on Jun 30, 2008 9:05 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

EB and BD opt out

Brand is going about it in a professional of way of saying I’ll come back if you get some players. According to Stephen A Smith, the clippers and Brand are working out a 4 year 60 mil deal.

Here’s the link for B Davis opt out
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3468448

Also, B Davis left because he was fueding w/ Nelson last year and since did not get the long term deal he wanted from the Warriors. I can’t believe he left 17 mil on the table w/ no one offering that type of cash. I wonder if long term deal is more important to Davis, Can the clips over him 5 years 50 mil?

by Qlippers on Jun 30, 2008 9:14 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It would be quite comical to watch

BD’s freelancing, ignoring MDSr completely, DTS supporting BD. God I’d love that.

by Jax on Jun 30, 2008 9:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please Baylor....

Make it happen…

Kaman
Brand
Thornton
Mobley
Baron

by CLiPPz WeRD 42 on Jun 30, 2008 9:46 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just Do it…Haven’t we suffered enough???

by Qlippers on Jun 30, 2008 10:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As far as FA PG's

Sam Cassell could be brought in for 1 year on the cheap. He can make an entry pass and hit a shot.

Maybe he can recapture the magic.

by mikey p on Jun 30, 2008 10:18 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don’t worry guys, we made qualifying offers to Nick Fazekas and Marcus William.

Anyone got weed?

by Qlippers on Jun 30, 2008 10:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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