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Quick Thoughts as I Scramble to Catch Up

ClipperZoe had a doctor's appointment this morning, which took some time.  I've rad the comments here at ClipsNation, but I haven't read any other reports yet today - this SF Chronicle one sounds really interesting.

Here are some bullet thoughts in the mean time:

  • It's likely that Baron's decision caught everyone by surprise, and certainly pundits in the media did not see it coming.  That would explain why MDsr was talking to Udrih at 1 minute after midnight.  But the priorities necessarily switch now. 
  • Although it was probably not his primary goal, Baron's decision makes me look like an idiot.  I spent several hours on a point guard post yesterday, concluded that he was an unrealistic target, set a list of priorities - and today it's all wrong.  Thanks for that, Boom-Dizzle.
  • It's worth noting something here: before each opted out, EB and BD stood to earn a combined $34M+ next season.  Now, the media is ablaze with speculation that they'll split somewhere in the neighborhood of $25M to $27M to play together for the LAC.  No wonder I said it was unrealistic yesterday.  It's the kind of thing that happens to the Spurs and the Lakers and the Celtics.  It does not happen to the Clippers.
  • The 2008-2009 salary cap figure has not been set yet.  That happens in about a week.  For that reason, we don't know exactly how much the Clippers can offer these guys.  Basketball Related Income (BRI) just became really, really important to all of you.  If it went up a lot this year (maybe it did, with the Lakers and Celtics thing), then the cap goes up.  The more the cap goes up, the more realistic it is to sign both these guys.
  • Baron Davis went to Crossroads High in Santa Monica, and the Clippers franchise is at a crossroads with this situation.  We're literally in a situation where the team could have two all stars in the starting lineup - or it could be building around Chris Kaman.  The nature of this type of home run swing is that you can strike out.  Udrih (not that he's a savior, but still) will likely be gone by the time the Davis situation is resolved.  If you don't get Davis, maybe you can salvage Brand and Maggette.  But it's also possible that the 'I'll take more money to play on a winner' moment passes, and Brand gets disillusioned.
  • It's hard to figure how much Brand saw this coming.  He was quoted talking about Udrih yesterday.  Does he say that if he had Baron Davis in mind?  And as others have pointed out, the Brand-Davis play closes the door on Brand's buddy and long time teammate Maggette.  At any rate, this seems to literally be a chance for Brand to put his money where his mouth is.  How much money is he willing to give up for the Clippers to sign an all star point guard?
  • He hasn't been asked to play in a low post system in a long time, but in many ways Baron Davis is the ideal addition to the Clippers.  The one thing the team has needed for eternity is a go to scorer, particularly one on the perimeter.  He's all that.  He's got Sam Cassell swagger, with a half the miles and double the talent.  He could certainly clash with MDsr - but Brand and Davis get massive team leader cred if they take pay cuts, and as we saw in Boston this year, that sort of thing has a way of getting the entire team and the coach focused on one thing.
  • As John R correctly pointed out, the Clippers have to renounce all of their exceptions to cobble together the money for these offers.  That means Maggette is gone.  It is less clear what it means for Livingston.  I wonder if a multi year deal at the minimum salary, where all of the subsequent years are player options, would be acceptable to Shaun.  Someone else will probably offer him more, but maybe not a lot more.  If he gets a multi-year deal, he has some security in case he can't play.  But the player options allow him to demand more money if he comes back strong.  It's not a bad compromise, and allows Livingston to stand by the franchise that stood by him.  I also feel that Shuan could play a crucial role in a very bright Clippers future.  He could be the jack-of-all-trades backup to Davis at the 1, Gordon at the 2 and Thornton at the 3.

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Looks beautiful on paper

lots of moving parts, though. I am not getting my hopes up.

by mikey p on Jul 1, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

From Hollinger's chat (so far)

Let’s put it this way—I think he’ll (Baron) end up in the state of California. Exactly where, I’m not sure. It sure seems like it’s possible for the Clips to keep Brand and sign Davis if they renounce Maggette (whom Dunleavy never was totally sold on), especially now that they didn’t make qualifying offers to Livingston or Davis.

It’s possible (Maggette to ORL for MLE), but only if the rest of hte market for him dries up. If the pursuit of Josh Smith doesn’t work out, Philly could offer him some good dough to replace the aforementioned Willie Green. Otherwise, MLE may be best he can do anyway, so why not go home.

I think Baron’s move took Maggette by surprise … i think he wanted to force a sign-and-trade, but if the Clips can get Davis they have to renounce Maggette and leave him to forage on the open market … where only one team is spending.

general consensus is that Brand will stay in L.A. to make movies.

If they can’t get Baron Davis, I don’t think Brand would mind a sign-and-trade to South Beach, but he’ll need the Clippers to play ball. Usually The Donald just lets his guys leave, and the only way Brand can do that is either by going to Philly or persuading Michael Heisley to open his checkbook.

by mikey p on Jul 1, 2008 12:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Again, a flawed equation

Nothing concrete here about where BD is going. The state of California? Are there any other realistic options (Sac, GSW, LAL) that are close to the deal and the roster of the Clippers? The point is what makes sense for BD and why he did it.

And “general consensus is that Brand will stay in LA to make movies” doesn’t mention that Davis has a movie coming out. Why not say “Davis wants to go home and make movies”?

He does manage to figure out that the trick is renouncing Maggette. It’s not “Baron’s move took Maggette by surprise.” A more correct statement is that Baron’s move was predicated on Maggette’s move. If Maggs hadn’t opted out, then BD wouldn’t have—and maybe EB wouldn’t have as well.

by citizen zhiv on Jul 1, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point, hadn't thought of that

Perhaps they were all waiting for Maggette

by mikey p on Jul 1, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Couple of Items

Clipperblog is on the case and worth reading. TrueHoop did a late update link to it on his midday notes. I posted a comment over at CB a little while ago, then came back and saw John R’s important new post.

I’m still thinking that the thing to do is look at BD’s options. Why did he do it? Where can he go? Apparently Brand’s deal has to come first, but my guess is that it’s all one thing.

About Brand mentioning Udrih: perhaps Brand didn’t want to tip his hand. And then you get to MD in NYC and meeting Udrih. The question is whether anybody on the Clips management side was in the loop, and if that’s even legal. But it’s worth remembering that Maggette had to opt out first in order for the dominoes to fall.

It’s funny to break down the time line, which someone may want to do more exactly. Dunleavy knows that Maggette opted out. Then Brand opts out—and then BD. Did Dunleavy know about BD when he went to the meeting with Udrih? It may have been breaking news.

by citizen zhiv on Jul 1, 2008 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Collusion

Clippers couldnt talk to BD, presumably, until he opted out. Now that he and EB are completely free, they can collude among themselves, with the Clippers, the Warriors, or anyone else.

MDSr going to NYC was seemingly the only logical thing to do. Anything ELSE would have been suspicious.

“Its the day before free agency opens and were are here in Carpenteria at Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy’s beach campsite. Coach, aren’t you worried about acquiring a PG? What about the futures of your free agents?”

“Huh? No, Im just enjoying some smores with my family. These things tend to work themselves out.”

by John R on Jul 1, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Collusion

Collusion is a pretty interesting concept in this thing. You’re exactly right, agreeing with my implied suggestion, that MD’s meeting with Udrih is the perfect smokescreen. And it was also a perfect insurance/back up plan move, unless something went awry.

I know the Clippers couldn’t talk to Davis, and I don’t think that they did. But they were able to talk to Brand and Falk. The question is, is it okay for Brand to talk to Davis? Do we think he did?

by citizen zhiv on Jul 1, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The rumor

Is there is a secret deal in place.

Oooo drama! Intrigue!

Wait I can close the loop here. EB and BD’s movie will be a dramedy set in the seedy underbelly of professional basketball. Greed, collusion and…hilarity reign!

by John R on Jul 1, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BD opted out to get a better deal from GSW

their talks were stalled. This puts pressure on them.

by mikey p on Jul 1, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stay calm, mp

I was worried too about BD’s statement to Adande. But when you break down the situation it’s not so unsettling, and seems like it’s just good diplomatic chatter as things move forward.

Let’s remember this:

1) The Warriors apparently made an immediate offer to Arenas, possibly for max dollars. I’m not exactly sure how or why, but it does say something. Some people might want them to do a S&T, but Davis didn’t mention going to Washington to Adande. He said Clips, but still likes (doesn’t want to piss off) GSW.
2) Warriors have to deal with Ellis and Biedrens. Nelson has one more year. BD was unhappy at the end of the season. It’s not really an ideal scenario.
3) Warriors were probably lulled into thinking that Davis would stay because the money on the table was substantial. They thought that they would have him for a year, no worries, while the team evolved. They probably showed virtually no interest in giving him a big longterm deal at this point. If Davis wanted to stay with the GSW, why wouldn’t he take the money, play with Nelson as coach, and then get a new deal or go to another team?

Davis had a reason to opt out of his deal. The obvious reason is that he had a plan. The most logical plan is that he could join the Clippers.

by citizen zhiv on Jul 1, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I am the calm one

LOL. I am actually cautiously optimistic.

by mikey p on Jul 1, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The plan

BD’s plan may have been to force GSW back into negotiations. $18M next year is a lot of money, but it’s a lot less than $60M (or more) in the long term. Still, I agree that his best financial move was to play the final year and re-sign next year when there is more money on the market. He would have had to have a good year of course.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jul 1, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

udrih just resigned with the kings who outbid us, now we must have gotten davis

by cliprboy on Jul 1, 2008 1:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

udrih just resigned with the kings, we must have baron davis locked up

by cliprboy on Jul 1, 2008 2:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

why must all you guys think negative…i cant see dunleavy having udrih locked up and then loosing him

by cliprboy on Jul 1, 2008 3:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

la times is reporting deal could be done tomorrow

by cliprboy on Jul 1, 2008 3:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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