The Camby 'Trade'
Let's start with a little historical perspective. Back in December 2006, I was certainly on board with the idea of the Clippers trading for Allen Iverson. I was not on board with including Livingston in the deal, which apparently would have gotten it done. Obviously no one could have known what was going to happen to Shaun's erstwhile knee. But we can now look at the downside of an Iverson trade.
The Nuggets have won exactly one playoff game in two seasons with Allen Iverson. That's exactly how many they won against the Clippers the season before. And because they have an owner who is not willing to pay the luxury tax indefinitely (certainly not while going 1-8 in the playoffs), they have now decided to give away an incredibly productive player. It's a cautionary tale. Whereas it might be nice to have a Mark Cuban or a James Dolan in charge, willing to remain above the luxury tax threshold indefinitely, that is certainly not the norm. For 28 teams (even the Lakers) the luxury tax threshold serves as a firm cap, if not a hard cap. Teams may stray above it for a season or two, but eventually they will do what is necessary to avoid it.
As I pointed out in May, the Nuggets cap situation was pretty dire. That became even more obvious in June when they dealt away their first round pick for cash, despite the fact that they are pretty desperate for an infusion of young talent on that team. Worse still, they were saddled with a slew of untradeable contracts. The Camby contract looked downright tasty compared to those of Iverson, Nene and Kenyon Martin. So although there were a few rumors floating around about dealing Carmelo Anthony, at the end of the day they weren't going to do that, and moving Camby remained the only way they could shed significant salary.
Having said all of that I am shocked - SHOCKED - that they could not get more in return than a swap of second round picks. Let's be clear - this is as close to trading for nothing as it comes in the NBA. He led the NBA in blocked shots AND was second in rebounding last season. I know he's 34, but did I mention that he led the NBA in blocked shots AND was second in rebounding last season? That occurred when he was 33. He's really shown no sign of dropping off as he's entered NBA old age. So, yeah, he's getting up there in years. But still, there's no concrete reason to expect that he's ready for a significant decline.
Compare this situation to Ben Wallace. I guess this is in some ways the worst case scenario for the Clippers, since Wallace's productivity has fallen off a cliff. But that had already begun when he signed in Chicago for 4/$60M in 2006. Big Ben built his reputation as the best rebounder and shot blocker in the league, but in his final season in Detroit he was fifth in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Respectable, but not game-changing. (By the way, you'll notice a guy named Camby ahead of him at that time, before Wallace signed his monster deal, and of course he's far ahead of him now). When you chart his decline from prior years, you could see that the 31 year old (at the time) Ben Wallace was well on his way to becoming the 33 year old Ben Wallace. By contrast, for whatever reason, the 33 year old Marcus Camby was better than almost any other version that came before, averaging career-highs in rebounding and blocks last season.
Plenty has been written here about what a terrific find this is for the Clippers, and I can only agree. For Citizen John R, an acolyte of Wages of Wins and Win Score, it's a grand slam home run. I have my issues with WoW, but it's difficult to see how this isn't a major coup. As is often the case, all of the names we were talking about last week turned out NOT to be the target that was eventually acquired. And by the way, kudos to citizen bballanalyst who was the only one thinking along these lines before the deal was announced. At any rate, Camby or Randolph? No brainer. Camby or Okafor? Also a no brainer, partly because the commitment for Camby is for a mere two seasons. A guy like Josh Smith might have provided a high reward, but at a much higher risk. Remember that it is a combination of bad contracts, including those to Nene and KMart, that forced the Nuggets into this salary dump. Josh Smith has the potential to be a great player in this league. And Josh Smith at 5/$70 has the potential to be a bad, bad contract in a couple seasons.
One thing that I have not seen mentioned is the unique potential of a Camby-Kaman front line. Based on per game averages (and certainly Kaman's injuries make this less valid, but still), these are two of the top three rebounders in the NBA, and two of the top three shot blockers. I was excited last season with the emergence of Kaman 2.0 to contemplate the idea of a couple of top ten rebounder/shot blockers in the same Clipper lineup. A couple of top threes? It's literally never happened. The combination of David Robinson and Tim Duncan is a close as anyone's ever gotten, and those teams did OK.
I'm not suggesting that Kaman-Camby equals Robinson-Duncan. Obviously Robinson and Duncan were also terrific scorers in addition to being shot blockers and rebounders. But I am saying, this is a unique pairing and it's hard to predict what will happen.
I am hoping that MDsr is planning to build his entire defensive approach around this duo. Because having Kaman and Camby together allows a team to behave very, very differently than they would otherwise. The perimeter defenders can apply ball-pressure and take lots of chances, knowing full well that there simply are no lanes to the basket with both of those beasts defending the rim. Hell, there could be a 1-2-2 zone in the Clippers' future that would be next to impossible to beat. And once the shot goes up, there are three Clippers who can basically ignore any rebounding responsibilities and start heading out on the fast break, because either Kaman or Camby has a pretty good chance at grabbing the board. As for the possibility that teams will go small and neutralize the Clipper giants, I suppose it could happen. But bear in mind that neither of these guys are your typical lumbering lummoxes. When Kaman and Brand played together, it was Kaman, not Brand, who defended against Dirk Nowitzki. Short of putting five three point shooters on the floor and going bombs away, I'm not real concerned about major matchup problems. (Then again, it's only July.)
Obviously the pairing is more problematic on the offensive end, but I hope and pray that the Clippers commit to playing up tempo. Fast breaks begin with defensive rebounds, so there's your first check mark. The next thing is a point guard to push the tempo. Check again. Al Thonton and Eric Gordon just happen to be the best athletes from each of the last two drafts, so it would seem there are players to fill lanes. As I've pointed out in the past and MDsr recently said, Kaman is among the fastest seven footers in the league. Camby has been playing in the fastest paced offense in the league. Running is clearly the way to score for this team. (Unfortunately, I remain somewhat skeptical that control freak MDsr, he of the perfectly-pointy-pocket-puff, will embrace a high paced offense.) In the half court, Kaman proved last season that he commands a double team every time he gets the ball in the post. Camby was more or less a perimeter player in Denver, and is more than capable of hitting a 17 footer. He's also an extremely gifted passer, an aspect of his game that is underappreciated. The offense will necessarily be very different, if only because Davis and Thornton will become options 1 and 2. But it appears to be a dangerous team on paper, especially if Thomas, Mobley and Gordon can hit from the perimeter when they are on the floor.
Are there concerns? Well, of course there are. Of the Clippers three best players, two have been quite injury-prone in their careers (despite having enjoyed good health recently), and the third missed 28 games last season. And the Clippers are committed to paying $20M to a 34 year old at this point - not exactly a youth movement.
But on closer inspection, it really is a youth movement, but one that allows for the possibility of significant success in the interim. Camby, Mobley and Thomas and $26M in salary attached to them all drop off the Clippers books in summer 2010. Mobley's replacement is a 19 year old named Eric Gordon. Camby's is a 19 year old named DeAndre Jordan. Are Gordon and Jordan locks for stardom in the NBA? Certainly not. But they both have a chance to be good, and they both have a starting job waiting for them in two seasons if they're ready for it (and if they're ready to demand it before then, so much the better). And even if you don't dare to dream about LeBron James or Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh (any one of whom would be nice fits with Davis and Kaman in 2010), there will be a host of other free agents on the market that summer, since they all know that the money will be flying. The Clippers had the money to spend this summer. It ain't my money. It is difficult to imagine a better scenario than getting a player as productive as Marcus Camby without committing more than two years.
Bear in mind that two seasons is the new one season, since next year Camby becomes an expiring contract, which is solid gold itself. There is literally no downside to this acquisition. The money was burning a hole in DTS' pocket and it doesn't help us fans if he holds onto it. So Camby is pure gravy compared to Tim Thomas or Josh Powell. If he plays anywhere close to as well as he has for several seasons in a row in Denver, then he's helping the Clippers win a lot of games. If not, he's a $10M trade chip next summer. And then he's no longer on the books. I'll say it again - there is no downside.
I'll reflect on the bigger picture (Davis and Camby versus Brand and Maggette, 05-06 Clippers versus 08-09 Clippers, etc.) at a later time. For now, yes, I love his trade. Let me also add that when deals like this happen, where a team gives up a player for almost literally nothing strictly for monetary reasons (Rasheed Wallace to Detroit, Pau Gasol to the Lakers, and on a lesser scale James Jones to Portland or Kurt Thomas to the Sonics), I invariably ask myself "Why couldn't the Clippers have been the beneficiary of that charity?" Well, this time, it was the Clippers.
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27 comments
Comments
Great Post
Recently found this blog due to all the Clipper news recently and think it provides the most in depth and reasonable analysis out there. That, and no one here annoys me, so that’s a big plus.
There’s been a lot of talk about the fragility of the Clipper signings, so I wanted to share a little number cruching I did involving Baron Davis & Marcus Camby.
Davis’ 5 yr. average says he’ll play 62.6 games this year for us, and Camby’s 5 yr. average is 68.6, playing 76% & 83.7% of games the last five years respectively. Maybe that’s a little better than their reputation would lead you to believe. But the interesting thing is if you take those numbers and multiply them, it would say we can expect both players to be on the court together for only 52 games next year, with average luck. Obviously, possible injuries to Kaman, Thornton, and others makes depth of utmost importance. Then again, Davis played 82 games last year, while Camby played 79, but if Clipper luck allows that to happen again this year that would be one heck of a longshot.
by ghost_ride on Jul 17, 2008 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"no one here annoys me"
Give us time, my friend.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 17, 2008 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chameleon Clippers
Get ready for it. I can see it now.
This roster is exactly what this coach likes – a versatile team that can adjust to any style. Dunleavy will have a fun time mixing and matching this squad.
Azuibuke is the final piece to the puzzle. A SG/SF blend who can be plugged into a variety of lineup combinations.
Wanna go big? Easy. Kaman + Camby is as big as you need to be. Small? Slide Camby over, put Al at the 4 and let Az (I can’t keep typing the full last name) handle the 3.
Need a shooting lineup? Thomas at the 4 can spread things out.
Many new and wonderful possibilities for our Tinkerer in Chief.
I don’t worry about the Clippers being a running team. Baron Davis only knows one way to play. It is who he is. For as much as Dun wanted Sam Cassell to stay within the offense, Cassell only knew one way to play, which was jacking up turn-around’s midway thru the shot clock.
The Clippers will run. Should be fun.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 17, 2008 6:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Showing up high in the rankings
Google search for Marcus Camby
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 9:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Delfino to Moscow
I’ve long been interested in the growth of the int’l game, as some of you may know. Delfino to Moscow for $30 M is noteworthy in my view. He is a good player whom the Clippers could use. He’s worth alot of money in the NBA. However, with salary cap restrictions, and the rise of basketball internationally, players who can play in the NBA like Delfino can make more money (and become bonafide stars in their own right) overseas.
(The force feeding of NBA lottery pick high school players to the NCAA for a year may also change things up – see Brandon Jennings to Italy instead of to college. Don’t get me started on that one.)
Those of us who love basketball understand why it is increasing in popularity world wide. If not the second most popular sport now it will be within the next 10 years, at least I predict that it will be. The NBA will likely either expand across the pond and into Asia or we will likely have a true world championship, to be governed by FIBA or co-governed by FIBA. There is too much money involved, too many good athletes and too many fans to keep the sport localized here. And many NBA caliber athletes simply don’t want to come over here – and since they are making similar money, playing at a high level and achieving similar fame elsewhere, why would they?
About 10 years ago I was living in Europe (and playing basketball). It was wildly popular then. I can only imagine how popular it is now.
We live in interesting times.
by Jax on Jul 18, 2008 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Were you playing professionally?
No way would I want to live in Moscow, not even for that kind of money.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
Not playing professionally – on a Fulbright Scholarship. Playing third division.
You wouldn’t live in Moscow for $3M / year? Why not?
by Jax on Jul 18, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cause it's Moscow
Cold. Still not a free society. Very expensive. High crime.
Did I mention cold?
My counterpart at work is Russian. Grew up just outside of Moscow during communism. She is actually visiting there right now. But she doesn’t wan to live there.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope...
You’ve actually read this on Denver’s side, right?
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jul/16/camby-insulted-trade/
He never wanted to be here, and here he is.
by Redmosa on Jul 18, 2008 10:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure he is insulted
He was given a way. What a slap? But he will come to LA and collect his $10M and play hard, especially against Denver.
Hopefully he has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove.
I remember watching the guy at UMass. I thought he would be a big time NBA star. While he may not have reached star-level, he is a very good player.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be dealt again
Don’t get your hopes up with Camby, boys. I’ve heard that he’s just trade bait for Josh Smith. We’ll see though.
by SnortingMercury on Jul 18, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know
I was thinking it was curious that we havent had an introductory press conference…
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
by John R on Jul 18, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But then again
With BYC it would be complicated and difficult.
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
by John R on Jul 18, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, just like Redmosa pointed out...
I don’t think Camby really WANTS to be here. He’s just here. And I think he knows what’s up. But I can just be hearing rumors. I haven’t heard from any real credible sources. Just speculation on message boards and reactions from players I see.
It does make sense though. A couple of days ago Dunleavy sat down with Smith, not Camby. They have shown interest in Smith this whole offseason. Camby is pissed that he was traded for practically nothing. No press conference (as you have pointed out). Smith wants out of Atlanta desperately. It sort of adds up. But, like I said, we shall see.
by SnortingMercury on Jul 18, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The article doesn't really mention Camby's take on the Clippers
He is butt hurt about being traded for nothing, but that’s towards the Nuggets, not the Clippers. Still kinda immature, but not completely unreasonable
Camby for Smith straight up is impossible due to cap rules. So it would take some interesting wheeling and dealing.
I would also be massively disappointed and the Clippers would be worse off.
Now, if you get Smith AND Childress and it doesn’t cost you more talent than Camby you are on to something.
Otherwise, pass.
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
by John R on Jul 18, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah... it's all up to what Dunleavy wants...
If he wants a light-footed, quicker team to match Davis’ style, then Smith fits a LOT better than Camby. And you’re giving up a little on defense but not that much with Smith.
But, I think I’m still with you. I would rather see a twin tower duo of Kaman and Camby over Smith playing the 4 spot and getting 1/3 of the rebounds that Camby would have been getting. Smith’s just not that physical underneath the basket. Camby is. But, like I said, it’s all what Dunleavy see’s as the team’s new style with Baron at the point.
by SnortingMercury on Jul 18, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MDSr. has gone out of his way to praise Camby
I don’t think there is a trade brewing.
Press conference could come later, but do they always do those for trades? I don’t know how newsworthy it is. It is not like he has to sign a new deal or anything.
I don’t see the logic in trading for Josh Smith. Wait until 2010. If the Clippers really want Smith, tell him to sign a one year offer and be a UFA next year. Trade Camby and sign Smith up.
Camby will be a Clipper, I believe. And I am glad.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget younger
And you’re not giving up much on defense – he just plays a different position. Smith is in the top three in blocks and he gets 2 steals a game.
by Jax on Jul 18, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get that whole argument - traded for nothing
Didn’t they save something like $30 million?
by Jax on Jul 18, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Camby's a Clipper
Fair number of factors in Camby’s reaction.
-Big time player, leading rebounder, shotblocker, key defender on playoff team, sent for a 2nd round draft pick. Had to say “huh? That’s what I’m worth?”
—General surprise factor. Seems like he didn’t see it coming.
-Has been in Denver and had enough success there that he’s probably fairly settled in. And Denver strikes me as the kind of place that the people who live there really like it and think it’s kind of cool. Not that LA isn’t, but the whole point is he’s reacting to the rejection and being sent away (for nothing in return), rather than the destination.
-We can’t undersestimate NBA players naivete about the details of salary cap issues. Maggette’s stubborn reaction to FElton’s defection and the “dream” is a good example-it’s pretty clear that Maggette didn’t have a full grasp of the consequences of his opt-out and the subsequent signing of Baron Davis. If Camby had a sophisticated view of Denver’s situation, he would have known that he was vulnerable. And he should know now that no matter how productive he is at 34, he’s still 2010 capspace bait. I’m guessing he’s not familiar with John R’s post on the 36 rule either.
—Lots of people are ignorant about the Clippers and their roster. That probably includes a fair number of NBA players. Was Camby even aware of the Baron Davis signing and the FElton debacle? Maybe, maybe not. It’s safe to assume, however, that he probably has less general up-to-date knowledge about the Clippers than most of the people who read this blog (hey Marcus, how many offensive rebounds did Nick Fazekas get last year in how many minutes? Tim Thomas?), although his insider knowledge as an NBA player is a different story.
I’m highly skeptical about Camby as a summer 08 trade piece. Dunleavy has made a lot of comments about how well he fits and how excited he was to get him, and surprised as well. He’s very much a Dunleavy player, while Josh Smith has potential to fall into the other (Maggette) camp.
My guess is that Camby had a strong anti-Nugget reaction, and he needs to be educated (by Dunleavy and Baron Davis) about the Clippers and their immediate plans and approach. And then he’ll be fine.
by citizen zhiv on Jul 18, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see Camby's reaction as abnormal
Who wants to be traded, especially for nothing? It sucks. And now he has to uproot his family. He was very involved in Denver.
He spoke highly of the Clippers and said he is ready to go. But this is a very normal reaction.
Nothing like Richard Jefferson’s 2 weeks of bellyaching.
F-Elton!
by mikey p on Jul 18, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
very good analysis
I agree.
That doesn’t mean that, if Smith signs the one year agreement w/ Atlanta, a packaged deal, with Camby included, for Smith isn’t feasible. I’m just stating what could possibly happen and what I have heard brewing on other boards.
IMO, I would love for Camby to stay. Let’s see what him and Kaman could do in the middle. Though I agree that they won’t be to the caliber of Duncan and Robinson, like ClipperSteve says, but they will wreak some havoc for guys trying to penetrate, as well as on both sides of the boards.
Finally, it’s an exciting time to be a Clipper’s fan! I’ve never heard this much buzz about our organization in preseason… EVER! I like it.
by SnortingMercury on Jul 18, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*correction
offseason – not preseason.
by SnortingMercury on Jul 18, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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