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Observations about Marcus Camby

First, some history.

One could definitely say that Marcus Camby has had quite an interesting career arc.  After winning the Wooden and Naismith awards as a Junior at UMass, Camby was the 2nd pick in the 1996 NBA Draft by the Toronto Raptors.  Allen Iverson was chosen #1. 

Camby's highest ever scoring average came in his rookie year, 14.8 ppg.  It also happens to be his worst rebounding year in a season in which he averaged more than 30 MPG.  He was thinner then than he is now, so the rebounding trouble is understandable.  Overall, his two years in Toronto were forgettable.  He played exactly 63 games in each season.  He was traded to a retooled Knicks team in exchange for Charles Oakley. 

His Knicks career began quite unremarkably as well.  His first season was the year of the lockout.   Incidentally, his teammate, Patrick Ewing, was a major player in that whole fiasco as Active Players President.  I was in New York during those years, and can remember, quite well, thinking that such a good college player should be having a more productive career.  He was the primary back up for an aging Ewing, and was joined in the lineup by Larry Johnson, Allan Houston, and Chris "Bust" Childs, all of whom were signed on the same day of free agency in 1996.  One could say that that day was the beginning of the Knicks current woes.  They were joined by Kurt Thomas, Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward, and Clipper favorite, Rick Brunson.  Last but not least was the reinstated strangler, Latrell Sprewell, making his first "comeback". 

Camby played about 20 minutes per game in reserve duty for the 46 regular season games.  The Knicks finished 27-23, good enough for the 7th seed in the days when a plus .500 record was needed in the East.  (I think 27 wins still gets you close now, even with a full 82 game season.)

Tied 2-2 in their first round best of five series with their hated rivals, the Miami Heat, the Knicks were able to pull off game 5 in Miami (game 4 was the Mourning-Johnson fight in which Jeff Van Gundy clung to Alonzo's leg in an attempt to stop him.)  Camby's contributions in the series were modest. 

After sweeping the Atlanta Hawks in the 2nd Rd., the Knicks faced the Pacers in the Conference Finals.  Ewing went down with a wrist injury in game 2.   Chris Dudley was named the starter, but Camby played the bulk of the minutes at center for the rest of the series.  Finally, in game 3 of the NBA finals vs. the Spurs, with the Knicks down 2-0, Camby was named the starter.  The Knicks won game 3, but dropped the next two, losing the series in 5.  That was the beginning of Camby becoming a respectable NBA player.

Over the next few seasons, Camby went on to become one of the NBA's top rebounders.  He was later traded to the Nuggets for Antonio McDyess.  He was productive throughout his Nuggets career, but especially so after George Karl took over at the midway point of the 04/05 season.  From that point on, he has averaged over 3 blks per game, and his rebound totals have been in the 12-13 RPG range.

So, after all of that, I was wondering...is Camby truly getting better with age?  Or did George Karl's up-tempo system have an impact on inflating his stats?

His rebounding numbers are interesting in and of themselves.  One would expect his offensive rebounds to be exceedingly high given all of the "chuckers" he has played with in Denver.  But it is his defensive rebounding numbers that make up the bulk of his totals, with an average of over 10 per game. 

Meanwhile, his shot blocking totals continue to increase.  This is probably a sign of experience.  Unlike FElton, who tended to record his blocks while guarding his own man, Camby gets the majority of his from the weak side.  This I think is a good thing, and is what makes him such an elite help defender.  Also, whereas FElton was able to "rebound" a lot of his blocks, Camby sends a lot of his out of bounds.  He is more of a swatter.  But it can't have been too many, because Denver was the leading fast break team for many years.  A lot of them began with either a Camby block or DReb.

I am expecting similar results from Camby as a member of the Clippers, but one never knows.  As ClipperSteve said, it will be interesting having two of the NBA's top three rebounders and shot blockers on the same team.

Camby is very versatile and athletic.  I think a shift to PF will give him some opportunities to score.  I would bet that his point average increases to the 13-14ppg range.  He runs the floor well, and is more than capable of leading the fast break.

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Rebounding numbers

You mention George Karl and his possible effect on Camby’s numbers. This would seem to be a good time to hype another advanced stat: Total Rebound Percentage.

According to the b-ref.com glossary:

Total Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (TRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm TRB + Opp TRB)). Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

So simplifying, 10 players on the court, 100% possible rebounds, 10% per player or so, adjust that in your own minds for position, etc.

Camby’s page.

So since Camby hit his stride, he’s only varied between like 17.7% and 21% of the available rebounds grabbed. That’s across two teams and through many coaches, teammates and lineups. He’s up above 30% on defense, but a part of that is certainly Denver looking to run.

Kaman is up there too. 16.6 TRB% for his career, and north of 30% on defense last season.

There will obviously be some diminishing returns here, but check that out. When the Clippers make the other team miss, there is like a 50% chance one of those two dudes are getting that board. On any given rebound, its like 35%.

Thornton and KA are both in the 13-14% range, and even BD is at 9.8% on defense so he’s holding it down from that PG spot. The PG getting the ball in the first place is the easiest way to run, right?

There are rebounders at every position, in fact totalling like 97% DRB%. Again there will be diminishing returns, but its definitely a great test of advanced stats having this group on the floor.

Team’s shouldn’t be getting very many second chances against the Clippers.

Get me BD and 75 and I'm in

by John R on Jul 19, 2008 9:29 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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