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Getting Greedy - The S&T Scenario

First of all, credit where credit is due.  Citizen John R is the first person who suggested the sign-and-trade as a way for the Clippers to have their cake (Davis and Brand) and eat it too (keep their cap exceptions, allowing them to add other pieces around them, certainly including Shaun Livingston).

It's very complicated, but here's how it might work.  The simplest would be a straight up, Maggette for Baron double sign and trade.  The math on this one is pretty inflexible.  Maggette gets a 20% raise to avoid becoming a base year compensation player, from $7M to $8.4M starting salary.  Baron then gets 125% plus $100K over that, the maximum allowable for a trade between two teams over the cap.  (Remember that both teams are working over the cap in this scenario, since neither team would have renounced their rights to their players.)  That comes out to a starting salary of $10.6M - the offer on the table from the Clips is rumored to start at $11M, so we're in the ball park.  Bear in mind that since Baron would be signing with the Warriors in this scenario, he'd be eligible for a sixth year (maybe that's unlikely) and 10% annual increases versus 8%.  The 10% increases alone would more than make up for the slightly lower starting salary.  In other words, the Clippers can offer Baron a slightly better 5 year contract in a straight sign and trade for Maggette.

Of course, if the Warriors want Maggette, they can sign him outright for $8.4M or even more.  So there has to be something in it for them.  That something would be a lottery protected first round pick.  So in this fairly straightforward scenario, the Clippers give up a future pick to get their exceptions back (freeing up Donald Sterling to spend more money this summer, so maybe they're not fighting so hard for this after all), the Warriors get an extra pick for playing along, and everyone gets paid.  Not bad.

Of course, Maggette's options now are seemingly (a) get paid on a bad team or (b) get the MLE and play for a title contender (the Spurs, Hornets, Magic and Celtics would all like to get him).  The power of the S&T scenario for Maggette and those teams is that it potentially allows him to get paid AND play for a title.  If one of those teams is REALLY interested in Corey, what would they be willing to give up to get him? 

The problem is, none of those guys has the assets they're willing to part with to get this done.  The closest thing on that list might be Hedu Turkoglu of the Magic.  Do the Magic have enough interest in a Maggette reunion that they'd be willing to part with the reigning Most Improved Player of the NBA to get it done?  And do the Warriors want Hedo? 

John R originally brought up the Pistons, which is interesting because it puts Maggette on a good (though in the midst of reforming) team for greater than the MLE.  Not to mention that the Pistons have stated publicly that they intend to make major changes.  Either Tayshaun Prince or Rip Hamilton (who play the wing where Maggette would go) would slot into this trade without any other players being involved.  Baron to the Clippers, Corey to the Pistons, Prince or Rip to the Warriors works fine.  So that's interesting, right?  The Clippers would have to include some filler salary to make this work for Billups or Rasheed Wallace.

Chicago is the other team that immediately comes to mind.  With the Warriors losing Davis, they suddenly become the team desperate for a new starting point guard.  We in ClipsNation have some familiarity with this situation as well.  Baron to the Clippers, Maggette to the Bulls, Hinrich to the Warriors - done.  Let's face it - that's not bad.  The Warriors are only really looking at Maggette because they HAVE to spend their money on someone.  But with Stephen Jackson, Brandan Wright, Marco Bellinelle and even Al Harrington, not to mention the fact that Monta Ellis isn't really a point guard, the Warriors are loaded down with wings.  They need a point guard or a power forward.  They're not getting Brand; they're not getting Josh Smith.  Hinrich may be a better consolation prize for them than Maggette.

I don't think the absence of news means that people aren't working on these angles.  Of course, Hoopsworld (a site that tends to make stuff up) is the only place other the ClipsNation where I've seen a reference to the S&T scenario, so if someone is actually working on this, they're being pretty tight lipped.  But don't forget that a key ingredient in all of this is the realization on the part of the Warriors that they're cooked.  Right now, they're throwing money at every wall to see what sticks, and they're certainly in no mood to help either the Clippers or Baron Davis.  When reality sets in and they realize it may be their best (only?) option, that's when something could get done.

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I think the S&T will be for Maggette, and GSW will keep him. Nellie loves wings.

They are not in love with Harrington, so they could move him, maybe for Hinrich. I don’t see why Detroit would want to replace Rip or Prince with Maggette. I think each of them is better than Corey, on balance.

My concern is getting more money for Brand. Does this trade allow them to do so?

Stephen A. Smith actually has some good analysis here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac He points out that Maggette is at Brand’s mercy, but not in a bad way. Either EB signs with the Clips, or the Warriors, and then Corey signs with the other (or Philly, who appears to be interested in CM). It is looking less likely that Corey will take the MLE with San Antonio. Too bad, because he would be an excellent fit. Buy he can get an additional $3-5M per with one of those other teams. Hard to walk away from that.

by mikey p on Jul 5, 2008 2:28 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sterling really interested in S&T involving Maggette?

I also believe that we could work something out with another team so Corey can get a little more cash, but i doubt that Sterling would add Baron, re-sign Brand and take on even more money, for a S&T involving Maggette.

So i guess it’s more realistic for the Clipps to sign Davis to the contract they negotiated, re-sign Brand as well and to let Corey leave, while adding another player or two(i’d prefer another guy to back up Kaman & Brand) on the cheap.

As far as Maggette goes, i think he’ll then sign for the MLE with a team like San Antonio, Dallas, Boston etc.

by Silvio on Jul 5, 2008 2:39 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The S&T money would be going to Baron...

Its a wash, but it allows the Clippers to keep their MLE and Bird rights to all of their free agents.

Nothing for Sterling to lose here. Even signing BD and EB only gets the Clippers TO the cap. The tax is still at arm’s length.

by John R on Jul 5, 2008 3:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The money...

The S&T, because it allows the Clippers to keep all of the Bird rights, would actually permit the Clippers to spend a lot more – not that they necessarily want to. Baron’s would be locked in because of the chain reaction from Corey’s current contract – avoid the BYC rules on Corey, Baron gets $10.6M first year, period. But Brand could be re-signed for the max. And Livingston could be re-signed for the max (obviously not going to happen, but you get the idea). Then add on the MLE, and the difference in total team salary between plan A (Baron and Brand as free agents) and plan B (S&T, Maggette for Baron) gets pretty big.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jul 6, 2008 11:15 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GSW needs a PF or big man

It seems like getting GSW into the mix on this is going to take more than a protected draft pick. They’ve been humiliated and now they’re hanging around out there looking a little bit like dorks, but the fact is that they didn’t want to give BD a long term big deal anyway.

The Hinrich scenario looks very good. It’s the right money, and BD is replaced by a good player, right away. The only problem is that the Warriors still have the same problem that they had before. They have to sign Biedrins and they’re still very thin up front. They’ve talked about trading Harrington. That may be one way to push this along—when adding another team, add Harrington into the deal too. But there has to be a way that the Warriors end up with a piece that makes sense to them.

Does Miami make any sense—would it work for the Warriors to end up with Marion for one year (instead of Baron for one year?) It makes sense to me, and Marion would be perfect playing for Nellie. Miami was going nuts in going after Brand, but since then they’ve been very quiet. I guess they’re short of big men too, even with Beasley added. Would they want a core of Beasley-Maggette-Wade? The Warriors end up with Biedrins-Marion-Jackson-Ellis-Hinrich. But what does Chicago get? Harrington and Pietrus? Does this make any sense?

The Clippers might want to put Josh Powell or Paul Davis into the mix somehow. They’re not exactly solid guys, but they have size and Powell at least had a chance to show that he can contribute. The two of them are redundant, even more so with Fazekas around. I’d put Fazekas in the conversation too, but I just can’t do it.

I think the goal for all of this is for it to bigger and more complicated. The Clippers are already there, so it’s easy enough for them. The way to do it is for the Warriors to get greedy as well—they have a bunch of money, and they’re pretending to be greedy with the offer to Brand, but that just shows that they have money and slots to fill. The Bulls have Derrick Rose and need to get rid of Hinrich. The Heat have Beasley and Wade and they wanted Brand badly. New Jersey and New York want 2010 capspace. The list goes on.

by citizen zhiv on Jul 5, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Appreciation and praise

Can’t tell you how much the in depth analysis means. I am a student of some very bright students of the game. Posts as well as comments have been enfuego. Anyone catch the bitter letters to the Times sports page today? Knee jerk was to fire off a letter but that would be pretty lame. Lakers and Warriors fans seem to be handling this whole thing not so well.

by oneight on Jul 5, 2008 6:04 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I saw the Times

this morning and could do nothing but laugh. Bitterness abounds…in Laker land and in the Bay Area…

by Clip Show on Jul 5, 2008 7:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I will laugh at you

when you’ll cry seeing BD & EB in suits for most of the season

by buky on Jul 6, 2008 1:53 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brand

I find it interesting that people now view Brand as injury prone. He’s had one injury – one that happens, and then heals, and has never historically shown to impact players abilities, durability or longevity. Brand is fine.

Baron is another story. There are reasons the Dubs didn’t want to give him the contract he wanted. That’s another interesting aspect of this of course. Mullin et al in Oakland could have signed the guy, but decided he wasn’t worth the risk. Maybe he’s right. Only time will tell.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jul 6, 2008 11:23 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agree

the perception out there is that EB is going to break down with an injury any time now, even though historically his type of injury has had a very high recovery rate…...but at the same time the Clippers get ridiculed for NOT making a QO to Livingston, who DOES have an injury history. It’s the classic “The Clippers are inept” argument at it’s best….no matter what the Clippers are doing, it will always be wrong…

by Clip Show on Jul 6, 2008 11:35 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Another factor

Another factor here is the change in workout and fitness programs, which are getting better and more sophisticated all the time. We haven’t mentioned how Steve Nash was supposed to be more than half-done and rickety when he signed with Phoenix, and the BD deal has some close similarities to that one, including a Don Nelson connection—I would say that Nelson unleashed the full potential in both players, for starters.

Somewhere in the new information-it might have been the AT3 article-is that after beating Dallas in the first round early last summer, BD embarked on an all-new and intensive fitness program, working with ex-Bruin Rico Hines. He went on to play 82 games in 07-08. That doesn’t mean that he won’t get banged up, but he is taking an active approach to avoid injury and maximize his productivity.

Since Brand’s own transformation before the 05-06 season it’s ridiculous to critique his fitness. Brand is healthy and ready to go. And note Kaman’s statement in the Plashcke article this morning: that he has traditionally been a slow starter in the NBA season, and he thinks that playing competitive basketball in July and August will be good for him.

by citizen zhiv on Jul 6, 2008 1:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kaman sure didn't start slow last year

The Clippers concerns are legitimate about that.

As for BD, he showed no signs of slowing last year. I’m encouraged.

by mikey p on Jul 6, 2008 3:24 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hoopsworld and its sources

Hoopsworld. Hoopshype. Insidehoops. Sites that gather NBA stories from various publications and online media, then dare to create opinions from that gathered information without firsthand sources! Sound familiar! Uh… yeah….
But what’s the difference between Clipsnation (and all it’s clever acolytes) and those former sites? Page hits? I’m sure they have many many more. Monomania? Clipper Steve is Ahab-like, but that’s not it either. I think it is simply… integrity… as in… they don’t have any.
BTW, is it impossible to believe that Hoopsworld used John R and Clipsnation as a source? If you google some of these recent stories Clipsnation.com is often third or fourth or fifth on the list. It’s too bad the writer of the latest Hoopsworld piece doesn’t dig a little deeper into this (and likely other) blogs. He might then get better than half the story right.

by swamigusto on Jul 5, 2008 6:59 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I had that thought...

The Hoopsworld story quotes “Informed Clippers sources”. So maybe John R qualifies. He’s informed. He likes the Clippers. He’s a source if you make him a source.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jul 6, 2008 12:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Awesome

I’ve spent far too much time this week trying to find out information on all the various machinations unfolding. Here, I (finally) find the best, most illuminating posts to be had. Brilliant stuff.

by dennis11 on Jul 5, 2008 11:47 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No confirmation on GSW offer

According to Ric Bucher, No one can confirm if there was ever an offer to Brand or Arenas from. This may be agent driven to spike up the asking price.

by Qlippers on Jul 6, 2008 10:38 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm...

Good news bad news right. If there wasn’t really an offer, then there’s less threat of losing EB. But if Falk is the one floating the rumors, it doesn’t fit with Brand and Falk being on board from the start – certainly not with them being the masterminds. Unless it’s again all intended as a smoke screen to cover the tracks of a pre-arranged (colluded) deal. The plot thickens.

The Clippers! The (second) Best NBA Team in LA!

by Steve Perrin on Jul 6, 2008 11:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bucher

Pretty interesting. Bucher lost a lot of credibility last year when he let himself be manipulated by Kobe, but he came out of San Francisco and seems to have an inside track with the Warrior’s brass. He’s also always been a reliable Clipper-basher.

by swamigusto on Jul 6, 2008 12:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pistons like Maggette

Pistons and Maggette

This would fall right in line with John R’s three team sign and trade scenario. If the Pistons really want Corey, then there definitely is a way.

by Clip Show on Jul 6, 2008 11:47 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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