Darius Miles, Shaun Livingston, the Blazers, etc.
by Steve Perrin on Sep 15, 2008 10:49 AM PDT
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PrintBrowsing through NBA news, I was struck by the parallels between Darius Miles and Shaun Livingston. Both were high draft picks by the Clippers from High School, both from tough towns in Illinois, both possessing a tantalizing combination of basketball skills, physical gifts and size. And this off-season, both have been trying to convince the teams of the NBA that their careers are not over - that they can come back from seemingly devastating injury. In fact, they even went to the same workout guru to rehab - Tim Grover in Chicago (not too surprising given the Illinois roots). Shaun's injury was more gruesome, but DMiles is the one whose career was pronounced dead. Miles has signed an (unguaranteed) contract with the Celtics, while Liv is expected to receive an offer from the Heat or the Wolves or the Blazers very soon. Both still face an uphill battle to ever be significant players in the NBA again. And we wish both of them luck.
Some have suggested that ClipperSteve is harboring an unhealthy fantasy of Livingston once again being a Clipper. Perhaps. Watching him as a rookie, I was certain he was the most gifted player I'd ever seen in a Clipper uniform. If any team is going to take a chance on the admittedly long shot that he ever becomes the player I was sure he would be, I would think that team would be the Clippers. Of course, if he doesn't want to play here, that's his decision. And if his goal is to be a starting point guard, certainly both Minnesota and Miami are better fits at this point. I don't really see him signing with the Blazers.
Speaking of Portland, there was a comment in a recent thread questioning whether they should be considered a likely playoff team, as in fact most predictions say. There would seem to be seven 'safe' Western Conference picks - with Dallas and Phoenix being less certain than others. But for that 8th spot, while most pundits agree that the Clippers, the Nuggets and the Warriors might make a run at it, the consensus would seem to be that the Blazers have the inside track.
It makes a lot of sense on paper. They were 41-41 last season, and they're adding three supposedly high impact players this season. But let's be clear. The 41-41 is perplexing at best, and hardly indicative of their season. Based on their points for/points against of 95.4/96.3, the Pythagorean win-loss comes in at 38-44. Still respectable, certainly. What's really difficult to resolve is the hot streak. After beginning the season 5-12, the Blazers won 17 of their next 18 to move to 22-13. For the final 47 games, they were 19-28. That's 47 games of .400 ball. And the team was about as healthy (ignoring Oden) as any team can ever hope to be - the only player in their top 10 who missed more than 8 games due to injury was James Jones, who is now in Miami at any rate.
As for the three key additions, they're all rookies - and pretty young rookies. Greg Oden is 20, Jerryd Bayless is 20, and Rudy Fernandez is 22. Oden is likely the real deal. If he's healthy, he's going to help. Rudy Fernandez was great in Europe last season, and great in the Gold Medal game against the US. But that doesn't make him Manu Ginobili. For every Ginobili who translates European league stardom into NBA stardom, there's a Marko Jaric or Sarunas Jasikevicius who washes out. And looking at Portland's roster, doesn't Fernandez have to be a star to make a major impact? They've got Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster all playing on the wing, and they all played really well last season. Rudy's got to be better than Outlaw and Webster, this season, to add more than injury insurance. So it's not good enough for him to come in and be Jorge Garbajosa or Anthony Parker - or at least it would not account for a significant leap forward for the team. As for Bayless - I know he played well in Summer League. And if he has a positive impact at point guard this season, that will be terrific for Portland fans. It will also be the first time EVER that a 20 year old learning to play the point had a positive impact in the NBA, but I guess there's a first time for everything.
Don't get me wrong. I love Portland's roster, and I think they're going to be really, really good - like competing for an NBA title good - in the not too distant future. They have an absolute vault-full of young talent, and gobs of cap space the next two summers. (Miles' situation in Boston can impact that some, as his $9M goes back on the books if he plays 10 games this season, but even with that salary their cap situation is enviable.) But for a team that closed the season 19-28 and added three rookies, the playoffs may be a tall order. We'll see.
Streaky teams are hard to figure going into the next season. It's hard to reconcile Portland's 17-1 stretch with their 19-28 finish. So who are they going to be the next season? Are they the 41-41 team? That's another reason that I'm confused about Philadelphia. They were 18-30 on Feb 4 (.375 winning percentage). And they closed the season 22-12 over their final 34 games (.647 winning percentage). Now, in Philly's case, they finished the season playing well, so you figure that's a better sign than in Portland where they were playing .400 at the end. But something just doesn't feel right. The 22-12 seems like a fluke. I'll tell you this - if they were anything close to a 22-12 team, and they just signed Elton Brand, then they really are going to be good. Very, very good. I just think they were closer to an 18-30 team last season than a 22-12 team. That's just me.
But I've been wrong many times before.
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Adding Oden
Grandpa Basketball will have to be very good out of the shoot to improve upon The Pryz’s performance last year.
Its entirely possible that if Oden is gifted the starting job they take a big step backwards if he doesn’t produce.
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
A high class problem
But yes, if the conventional wisdom is that Oden is a defender and rebounder, whose offensive game still needs work, then he may not be a huge upgrade over Przybilla, who averaged 12.8 boards and 1.8 blocks per 36 last season.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Sep 15, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's hoping...
DMiles plays 10+ games for the Celts, Paul Allen goes bankrupt, and Shaun succeeds whereever he goes as long as he’s not wearing forum blue and gold.
don't forget
he has to sit 10 games because of the illegal substance violation
by Croatian_Sensation on Sep 24, 2008 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Portland
Not sure what they get out of Livingston, unless they want to just have a big tryout for the PG position, or they’re willing to spend the money (and aren’t they over the cap?) on a guaranteed deal to put another player in the vault for the bright future.
Oden and Pryzbilla does seem to be a high class problem, as CS says: if he’s not clearly better and more of a force than Pryz, it’s a bummer, but Pryz is a very serviceable guy, and they won’t do worse than that. It reminds of the conversations about the value of Kaman, which seem to be behind us at this point, but you never know. I think the discussion came up before the 06-07 season, as the Clips were trying to sign Kaman to an extension. Would the Clips be better served by signing Kaman, or using their money elsewhere, and trying to sign a guy like Pryzbilla or Zaza Pachulia, big strong defenders who will get some rebounds. The problem is that the contracts of guys like D’Alembert, Dampier, Nene, and Gadzuric put a premium on guys who basically do the same thing. The Clips got all they could have wanted out of year one of Kaman’s deal, and expectations are heightened for this year. They need him to be even better, and to stay healthy.
And it’s because of guys like Kaman (and Camby, who is also better than Pryzbilla, although once you include him you have to start throwing Aldridge and Frye into the mix), that the Blazers need more out of Oden than just okay. And they’re trying to compete in a conference that has Bynum added to Gason-Odom, Yao-Scola, etc.
My bigger question about the Blazers, however, hearkens back to the “Big Three” theory. As far as high class problems go, managing an impressive stockpile of young talent presents an interesting dilemma. Who are they going to sign, what will they do with the other guys? It seems like they have a number of really good guys who aren’t even up for their extensions yet, after next year. Will they be patient and prescient enough to give the big money to the right guys, and who will that be—or will they play hardball, which is another approach, and make sure that they don’t overpay, and cycle through young players?
It’s reminiscent of a couple of old Clipper saws. “Star money for star players” is always a nice memory, and it turns out to be a good rule of thumb. I can’t remember the line about cycling through young players, but what I find interesting is that the possibility that the Blazers are the anti-Clippers, in that they will have a bunch of players who are actually quite good, as opposed to one or two players who seem to be pretty good, because they’re carrying a basement team, when in fact they’re fairly mediocre. Kind of a tough business.
But it gets us back to the beginning. You can only wait so long on guys, and that includes Kaman and Livingston and others. It helps a lot to have a Brandon Roy or Al Thornton (or Baron Davis) who quickly show that he belongs and can be productive right away. Paying for a lost year for Oden isn’t so bad, since he came out after his freshman year, but it will make things a whole lot easier on the Blazers if he’s effective fairly quickly, and clearly better than a serviceable big like Pryz. The Clips had to roll the dice with Kaman, and seem to have done okay. It really didn’t work out with Liv, and no his best hope is to catch on somewhere and beat radically diminished expectations.
agree for the most part....
Honestly, the topic of the Blazers near future is one that could be discussed for hours. The blazers are in a great position(not including the dmiles thing) with all the young talent they have. To say they are in a better position than the clippers is kinda jumping the gun. The don’t have anyone anywhere near as talented as bdiddy. Roy is a phenom but he is coming back off knee surgery and HE IS STILL VERY YOUNG. Besides him they have a slew of young, hungry, talented wings. They don’t really have any inside presence, yet? I believe, at best, the blazers will be lucky if they are a few games behind us. That’s just me talking though. I think the experts probably know better, they did pick the lakers to win it all and they are going for the back-to-back on that same prediction. Only time will tell.
You ask some good questions
We Blazer fans are naturally high on our young guys and rate them higher than fans of other teams do, no surprise. We expect great things from them this season but sure, in the back of my mind is always the thought that they haven’t proven anything yet and they are very young.
You could find all sorts of reasons for the Blazers’ streakiness last season, number one being their youth, but I think it boils down to that they were never as bad as their bad stretches or as good as their winning streak. Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle, sometimes you catch flak. If all season they’d been the team that went 18-1, they would have been in the finals. If they’d been the team that started 5-12, they’d have been a league doormat again. So I think a .500 final record was a more or less accurate indicator of their development and abilities.
Greg Oden is the most important reason why I think the Blazers will significantly improve this season and make the playoffs. His athletic ability and strength are phenomenal. To say he will play at about Joel Przybilla’s level this year, as a couple of your commenters wrote, indicates a lack of familiarity with both Oden’s and Przybilla’s skills. I’m not saying he won’t have adjustments to make to the pro game, but he will be an impact player in his first season the way Shaq, David Robinson, and Hakeem Olajuwon were in their rookie seasons. You will be surprised at how quickly Oden begins dominating in the paint. When he realizes, as he soon will, that no one can stop him, he will be an absolute nightmare for opponents.
The other reason I expect a great year is because the young core of the team — Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, and Travis Outlaw — all have at least two seasons of NBA experience under their belt, while Steve Blake and Przybilla are veterans. (I include Outlaw in the “young” group because he played so little his first couple of years.) Those guys have all played together for two full seasons, excluding Blake, who rejoined the team after a one-year hiatus with Denver. Yes, they’re still young, but they are not as inexperienced as people tend to think.
I shoot layups like they're jumpers.
To say he will play at about Joel Przybilla’s level this year, as a couple of your commenters wrote, indicates a lack of familiarity with both Oden’s and Przybilla’s skills.
I disagree on a couple of fronts. First thats a complete mischaracterization of what was written. I said if he doesn’t offer more than the very good offering Pryzbilla brought to the table, then he could hurt more than help. That’s not a prediction of what he will actually do. So that’s a bit of a strawman and and a presumption.
Second, Greg Oden hasn’t consistently played ball since high school. And when he did play in college, <16 and 10 is nice, but it isn’t exactly Duncan-esque, especially given the watered down state of the college game in general and the Big 10 in particular. Its not quite even Camby-esque. Kaman managed 22 and 12 on 62% shooting. Pryzbilla contributed 14 and 8 for Minnesota. As such that college numbers translate to the pros, Oden was somewhat lacking.
I think the overall Portland situation is best described in your first sentence.
Portland has a nice stable of young talent, but you can only put 5 players on the floor. Right now they only have 1 player who is approaching great, and he is just as rapidly approaching overrated.
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
Portland has a tremendous amount of young talent with substantial upside
Oden, Roy, Lamarcus, Pryz, Outlaw are all up and coming talents. Roy in particular is very good, but has historically been injury-prone. He’s the type of guy who routinely scores or makes plays when called upon. A valuable intangible.
And rookies Fernandez and Bayless seem to be great additions.
They certianly have alot of promise, and a good coach.
Oden will be a work in progress
this season. He, most likely will be work in progress next season, as well. I think the Blazers will be a work in progress team for a couple of seasons…..But progress is what keeps them moving on with greater expectations for the next year….So with that in mind, and given the fact that we were rock bottom 3 seasons ago, we have a lot to look forward to.
We have to play the games and playing them will make predictions obsolete in a hurry. The Blazers still have a long way to go and making the playoffs is a goal, but not a shoo in (or out of reach either.)
Oden is an impressive looking player. He will not dominate(yet) and still has a lot of maturing to do. If he lives up to potential he will be a factor on this team some day(even if his offensive skills never fully develop)….But one player is not a team, and he is only one ingredient in the mix. So this season will go a long way towards finding out what kind of team we are.
PS…Of course this is just my opinion, but stats are only footnotes of value…they are often so misleading and many should have footnotes of their own…especially in a team sport. So with basketball, they may only have true meaning when your at the free throw line.
By the way
ClipperSteve..Your post is a good assessment of the Blazers and what could be expected. It’s always great to have outsiders views because they are less want-a-be and more actual. ….And…that logo of yours is awesome!
Thanks
I really appreciate the well-reasoned and measured comments by the Blazer fans who’ve stopped by. A post like this might often elicit some flames from die-hard supporters. But every one who has commented has made the effort to understand my position, and made some great observations in support of major optimism for the Blazers.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Sep 22, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Oden will shock you...
If he produces at a Pryzbilla level, something went wrong, very, very, wrong. Joel has absolutely no offensive skills. He has stone hands, a terrible shot, and no post game to speak of. Oden has great hands, passes fairly well, and anything within 5 feet of the hoop is a dunk. He should be pretty good. Our biggest weakness’s last year were rebounding, and not having an offensive post presence. Oden should cover those two things pretty well.
You also shouldn’t underestimate the development of all of our young guys. Roy and Aldridge were only 2nd year players last year. Young players generally take their biggest leaps in year 3. Webster and Outlaw are also likely to take a nice jump. Steve Blake sounds like he is in great condition, and has been playing with Oden every time they scrimmage. He should have much better chemistry with our big 3 this year, as well as an understanding of what Nate wants him to do.
The main thing that will slow the blazers down is injuries. We can’t afford to lose Roy for any significant amount of time. The same is true of Oden and Aldridge, but to a lesser degree. You may think Roy is overrated, but I feel like he is underrated. He doesn’t put up gaudy stats, but we are simply a much better team when he is in the game. He makes plays with ease and doesn’t rely on his athleticism, but rather his high basketball IQ Roy is one of those guys that raises the level of every player on the floor with him, he has “it” if you will. I think we can win 50 games this year….
RUDY > MJ
Great use of stats
Points for and against is a very good stats, and 38-44 could have very well happened without some of the magic that happened last year. But that was it was, clutch plays happened at just the right time and it’ll be interesting if that continues.
Joel Freeland=Stud
Isn't another large point the fact that the Blazers have both Oden and Pryz?
I mean when Pryz was taken out of the game last year, there was some serious lacking on the boards, because Portland lacked a legit bench center (though I love Frye). Though I think Oden is going to have a larger impact that Pryz has had, nobody should forget about the fact that the Blazers now have a defensive center for 48 minutes a game, barring injuries (blah).
And for all the reasons you listed why Rudy must be very, very good to have an impact, couldn’t one say that for those reasons, he wouldn’t have to be very good to have an impact? The bench, for now, appears to be stacked.
Kwame and Darko - Grizz '07-'08. The rebuilding is complete.
As I said before, the Oden Pryz thing is a high class problem
The point is, Pryz was pretty damn good rebounding and defending last season on a per minute basis. So, yes, you’re point is correct. They now have that much more quality depth at center. And the conventional wisdom is that Oden will be better – I’m just wondering by how much.
It’s very deep, very exciting team. The excitement has to be tempered with the realization that they are counting on contributions from three rookies. But if I was a Blazers blogger, I’d be pretty happy.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Sep 22, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
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