Kaman 3.0?
by citizen zhiv
on Sep 5, 2008 3:12 PM PDT
As I was reading Monsieur Perrin's excellent summer recap, I was impressed by the way that "Kaman 2.0" seems to fit seamlessly into established nomenclature. It's an obvious fact around here, of course, but we were all paying attention through the Clippers 07-08 death march. It does seem, however, that enough people out in the general NBA fan world were faintly aware that Kaman made an impact last season, playing at a new level and approaching his potential. And Kaman also bumped his recognition scores a bit with his trip to the Olympics, even if nobody saw him play.
Because we're Clipper fans, we're of course worried that we may see the return of Kaman 1.0, as CS mentioned in his recap. He also suggests the possibility of a Kaman 2.5 rollout. That's fine. I would say that Kaman 2.5 would consist of Kaman 2.0 playing 70-75 games, which would be great to see.
But it makes the slumbering patrons of Club Optimism wonder what Kaman 3.0 might look like. Here are a few thoughts.
It would have been very hard to debut Kaman 3.0 if FElton was on the team. We would have happily settled for K2.0 or K2.5 combined with FElton's touches and productivity. But with Camby as CK's frontcourt mate, CK is the clear first option on the low block, so the opportunity for Kaman 3.0 is there.
The addition of Baron Davis is another factor in the possibility for 3.0. If FElton might have taken away a lot of opportunities, BD should create a healthy supply of new ones. BD is the best PG and passer that Kaman has played with, and last year he was very successful with Knight and Dickau at the helm. And perhaps more importantly, Baron Davis has never played with a center like Kaman before. The combination of those two players is going to be crucial to Clipper fortunes.
Athleticism and maturity. The advent of Kaman 2.0 was based on a strong summer work ethic, greater maturity, and a number of Kamanesque factors, including improved diagnosis of his unique thought processes. And then he got German citizenship, played very successfully in Athens, and went to Beijing--where the patriotism of one of the most "American" guys you'll ever see, an RV and gun owner who has his own trucking company--was questioned.
What would 3.0 look like? Gotta run, but I'm curious.
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Kamen 3.0
I agree that there is a strong possibility for Kamen 3.0 in 2008. The truth is,before he went down with an injury last season, Kamen 2.0 was often surrounded by two to three opposing players because the Clippers lacked outside shooters.
That should all change this year with the addition of B.Davis, M.Camby, R.Davis, B.Gordon, J.Williams, even S.Novak, who all can shoot from the perimeter, along with strong outside shooter Cat Mobley and somewhat lesser Al Thorton.
The essential factor in the emergence of Kamen 3.0 micro-managing Coach Dunleavy. If MD is smart, his offense will consist of a lot of blocks and rebounds and fast breaks started by Kamen 3.0 and Camby, putting less pressure on the half-court offense.
All factors appear to support a Kamen 3.0 break out season if MD loosens his reins. The only other real intangible I see is Kamen himself and, of course the development of chemistry among all the new players.
Although I am optimistic and confident about Kamen 3.0, my prediction is that we will see a Kamen 2.6. Kamen has demonstrated to lack the Black Mamba day-to-day mentality to up his game substantially.
Neverthless, my prediction for Kamen 2.6 is 16.7 pts., 10.8 rebs, 2.4 blks, a strong presence on both ends of the court, and a playoff berth for the Clips.
by clippers#1 on Sep 6, 2008 4:46 PM PDT 0 recs
wow
16.7/10.8/2.4 for Kaman? I doubt it. I’d like to see it, but I doubt it.
by daclipjoint on Sep 7, 2008 4:57 PM PDT 0 recs
Really? Why?
He was 15.7/12.7/2.8 last season. So 16.7/10.8/2.4 would actually be a regression in rebounding and blocks. Camby’s presence might certainly cannibalize some of those numbers, since Kaman was almost literally the only big man on the court for the Clippers last season, but the Clippers also figure to increase their pace a lot this season as well. (Of course, the numbers increase from an increased pace to have anything to do with playing better, but I certainly expect his scoring to go up.)
The fact is, there’s PLENTY of headroom for Kaman. If he plays well, the addition of other scorers on the floor definitely helps him. Don’t forget that he averaged 18 points per game in November and December last season before the constant double and triple teams arrived – and let’s face it, there was absolutely no reason not to triple the guy when he was surrounded by the likes of Josh Powell and Quinton Ross and Brevin Knight.
He only shot 48% last season, owing in now small part to the continued presence of Mr. Flippy. If he can exorcise that demon once and for all and make his friggin’ bunnies, that would be a huge step forward. Unfortunately, some of this summer’s box scores made me suspect that Mr. Flippy accompanied the German team to Beijing.
The final potential area for improvement is running the pick and roll. As Citizen Zhiv points out, Baron Davis is the best point guard we’ve ever seen around here, and Kaman is the best center Baron’s ever played with. Can they develop some rapport? A pet play? If we are fortunate enough to see another big step from Kaman this season, it will be because of Baron.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by ClipperSteve on
Sep 8, 2008 3:19 PM PDT
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Exactly
You point out the main areas for “headroom.” I guess I’m wondering about the “comps.” Are there other players that we should be looking to, from a statistical point of view, in setting goals for Kaman?
One of those players would have been Camby, except now he’s on the Clippers. Kaman needs to push himself to reach Camby’s rebounding and blocks, which should actually be fairly challenging while playing alongside him, but that’s a high class problem. And even though it has been obvious since the Camby deal was made, it should be emphasized that Kaman’s scoring and offense/touches should be a beneficiary of playing with Camby and a better gang of shooters.
The November and December numbers make an important point. That was the heyday of 2.0. As I said, the trick is to maintain solid production over the entire season, more or less. It makes me think that there were actually three stages of Kaman in 07-08: Nov-Dec, when he was astonishing; Jan-Feb, when he slowed down, got hit with more defense, and lost PG help; and Mar-Apr when he was pretty much on the shelf.
It raises this question: who is more likely to be a 20ppg scorer, Kaman or Thornton? Neither of them is going to be as efficient as Maggette (who was routinely able to score 20 pts on 3 or 4 fga—that’s a slight exaggeration, but still). And don’t forget that BD is going to pick up the Maggette scoring load. I think most people would say that Thornton is the more promising candidate. Will they both be around 18 ppg, and would the Clips be better off with that?
Shooting percentage is another huge factor. I’m looking for a couple of things. Kaman’s midrange shot was dramatically improved last year, and he put it up a lot more often in the absence of Brand and other scorers. If it was 200% better than in previous years, it can still be 20-25% better than it was last year. It’s a shot that he can get very easily, especially since Camby is one of the few guys who could defend it. And knocking it down with just a little bit more regularity sets up everything else. As soon as you come out on the perimeter shot, the Kaman dervish spins by you, and he’s much more in control of those moves. And as CS points out, there’s a lot of room for improvement in running the pick and roll, now with Baron Davis. Kaman might have never achieved the basic pick-and-pop efficiency of Cassell and Felton, but Davis’ strength, penetration, and passing might be better suited to Kaman.
The other part of shooting percentage is of course Mr. Flippy. This also seems to be a matter of degree. I think that Kaman is still going to miss a certain number of the seemingly easy shots that he creates with his spin moves, and he will also continue to spin around more than he should and over-complicate things at times. CS and the Nation here have examined this in some depth during the Kaman epoch, and we always come back to just making one or two more of those 2 ft gimmes, and he’s at 52-53% and rising. I don’t know that anything like that will ever happen—it really should, at some point—but my hope is that BD’s offensive attack and attitude will result in a couple more attempts per game that Kaman 08-09 can’t possibly miss, whether it’s dishes, putbacks, or early offense. The goal is to get the fg% over 50%, and to work from there.
In the trickle of analysis that is slowly coming in, we keep hearing the same things. The new Clippers are going to be all about Baron Davis. But that’s a good thing. There are the chemistry issues of all the new players. Again, I think that Baron Davis, the respect he commands, his game and his will to win solves a lot of that, in ways that Clipper fans have never seen before. A lot of different guys on this roster can do different things, and the team is deep enough that they should be more resilient than last year, but Kaman is still right in the thick of things. Longtime Kaman afficionados have a bit of an advantage, in that we know to expect the unexpected, and we also got to study 2.0 pretty carefully. A lot of people will still be wondering about why the Clippers have two centers in Kaman and Camby, while we’re already a lot further down the road, thinking that they should be complementary and forceful, and trying to figure out how it’s going to work.
by citizen zhiv on
Sep 8, 2008 4:39 PM PDT
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I don't think
Kaman’s offensive numbers will improve with Camby there as opposed to EB, particularly after learning that Camby’s ouside shot isn’t nearly as good as I thought it was.
I also don’t think Kaman will ever be a 20 ppg scorer and I wouldn’t want him to try. I don’t think he could handle that kind of offensive production over the long haul, physically or emotionally. He’s much better as a complimentary player. He should be at about 13 to 14 ppg on a good team with two legit 20 ppg scorers in BD and Thornton. Thornton’s the key – if he can score 20 ppg relatively efficiently they’ll be all right.
by Jax on
Sep 8, 2008 7:15 PM PDT
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The ppg game question is why I was wondering about comparable centers. The fact is that Kaman is a highly skilled and improving low post player who demands a double team. He’s no Yao or Shaq, but some teams are going to pick their poison and give him lots of opportunities. If he can continue to mature and cut down on his mistakes, and improve his shooting %, he should be a 13 ppg guy without even trying. If he’s just a little better and healthier than last year, and his perimeter shot is slightly improved, that moves him past 15 towards 18ppg.
I think in the end you’re right about Thornton, who is simply more resourceful, energetic, and attuned to scoring than Kaman ever could be. But I don’t like to put too much of the pressure of the team’s success on a 2nd year guy, even if he’s mature/old and talented. He’ll do his part, and have his monster games, no doubt, and he should cut down on the 1-for-11 games too. And on the nights when AT is struggling a bit there are a lot of other guys who could get things going.
But Kaman has been in the league for a long time now, he wreaked a fair amount of havoc last year and now he’s on a much better team, and he just finished a rewarding stint of international play. Now that his game is more effective, consistent, and polished, and still improving, it’s time for him to look at the next level. That means consolidating the gains from last year, taking advantage of and complementing new teammates and guys like Thornton, but there’s a big mental component too. He needs to get stronger on the mental side of the game as well, getting after his opportunities and proving that he belongs in the conversation of top big men in the league. He knows he’s close. And with FElton gone and being a better offensive player than Camby, and playing with Baron and others, it’s kind of right there for him.
As to the first point, you may be right, and Camby’s relatively poor shooting (he sure seemed to make a ton of shots against the Clippers and Kaman over the years) could weigh on Kaman’s production. But it may also depend on Camby’s ability as a passer. FElton has a lot of strengths, but passing has never been one of them. So that might make up for things a little bit.
by citizen zhiv on
Sep 8, 2008 10:28 PM PDT
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Good points, but
I think you might be a bit too optimistic about Kaman’s long-term production. He was excellent for two months. That where he was the only option. He needs to sustain that kind of thing for an entire year. Can he? Will he want to? Does he have the kind of mental fortitude to get it done? I doubt it, but I hope he proves me wrong.
This is why players like EB, who are legit 20 / 10 / 2lk guys year after year, are invaluable and really cannot be replaced.
by Jax on
Sep 9, 2008 11:25 AM PDT
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I need to take another look at BD's game
Not all good pgs are most effective running the pick and roll. Has he ever played with a big offensive-minded center? I don’t recall that.
Has he ever run the pick and roll on a consistent basis? That aspect of his game doesn’t really spring to mind.
I suspect as does Steve that BD and Kaman will come up with some plays that take advantage of Kaman’s athleticism for some easy baskets.
by Jax on
Sep 8, 2008 7:20 PM PDT
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No Center
He’s never played with an offensive-minded center, not that I know of.
I think the distinction between the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop needs to be made here, although that’s not exactly what I’m thinking about. A player like Cassell uses the screen to take his jumper. Davis uses screens to go to the basket and generally wreak havoc, which should include using his passing skills.
by citizen zhiv on
Sep 8, 2008 10:33 PM PDT
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