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Phoenix 109 - Clippers 103

The Clippers have now played six games since Baron Davis joined Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph on the injured list.  That's in addition to Ricky Davis and Mike Taylor out of the lineup.  By my count, that's 5 of the Clippers top 8 players sidelined for those six games, meaning that beyond Marcus Camby, Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, any one else taking the floor for the team would be getting spot duty at best on a fully healthy team.  (One exception to that may be Mardy Collins, who could conceivably be supplanting Taylor as the backup point guard with his recent performances.)

Nonetheless, severely shorthanded though they have been, the team has been competitive in four of the six games and had a legitimate chance to win three of them.  They took at 1 point lead over Detroit into the final seconds, led Dallas by 5 with 2 minutes to go, and today they were ahead of Phoenix by 3 with 4 and a half minutes left, after overcoming a 15 point deficit against the red hot Suns.  Of course, if you're a citizen of Clips Nation, you already know how all of those games ended (and even if you're not, you can probably guess). Suffice it to say, the losing streak stands at 11.

This Phoenix game was clearly the least likely of the bunch.  Detroit was missing two starters.  And I think we can safely conclude that Phoenix has been playing better than Dallas of late, given the results of their Friday meeting.  And then there's Eric Gordon.  Against Detroit, he scored a career-high 31 on 9 for 21 shooting.  Against Dallas, he bettered that number by 1, and shot 9 for 18.  He was the reason they had a chance in those games.  Today, he was 2 for 14.

Now, prior to this game, you tell me that EJ is going to shoot 2 for 14 for the short-handed Clippers, and I say LA loses by 40.  I mean, if EJ is having an off-night, they're down to Al Thornton as the only legitimate option on offense. 

Yet somehow, the Clippers stayed close, and even battled back from a 13 point deficit when the Suns tried to put the game away at the end of the third.  Crazy.

Before I go on, let's spend a little time on the third quarter officiating, and on charge-block calls in particular. 

During the game, there were 9 offensive fouls.  Eight of them were against the Clippers; one against the Suns.  During the third quarter alone, there were 4 charges called on the Clippers.  Now, I'm going to go on record as saying that I thought most of the calls were correct.  The second Thornton-Nash encounter was questionable - looked like Nash was sliding right to me - but I would have a tough time arguing too vehemently about many others.  Still, we hear all the time about how tough the charge-block call is, how the majority of them could go either way.  Well, it seemed pretty easy to make the call in this game.  If Steve Nash or Grant Hill was on the floor (veterans, all stars, all pros) and Al Thornton or Eric Gordon was holding the ball, the call went against the Clippers.  If it's such a tough call, if it's supposed to even out, why was it so easy, and why didn't it even out? 

Usually referees have memories too.  If a player gets the benefit of a close call one moment, they will likely not have the next whistle go their way.  But in a matter of 70 seconds in the third quarter, Nash got three straight calls on defense.  Thornton charge, Thornton charge, no call when he stripped Mardy Collins.  As I already mentioned, I thought the second charge-block was a block, and was very surprised when it was called against Al given that the ref knew he'd just given Nash that call 30 seconds earlier.  But the Collins strip was pretty ridiculous.  Mike Smith said he heard the slap from his broadcast position, and the replay clearly showed Nash hitting Collins halfway up his forearm.  I'm not talking about 'hand is part of the ball' questionable, I'm not talking a little bit of wrist - I'm saying he got more arm than ball.  The NBA insists over and over that all of the myths are not true - there is no star treatment, there is no such thing as a make up call, etc.  Well, that may be, and this may simply have been an isolated bad call (and unfortunately, the Clippers certainly were not benefiting from the make ups either).  But it sure seemed like Steve Nash was getting a lot of calls - and let's face it, this is not a guy with the defensive skills of Bruce Bowen.

MDsr also felt like the Clippers were getting the short end of the stick.  A few minutes later he picked up consecutive technical fouls and an ejection arguing a non call on Grant Hill's block on EJ.  The irony here is that he picked the wrong call to dispute so vehemently - Hill's block was surgically clean.  But of course it was an accumulation that resulted in his decision (and I'm pretty sure it was a decision) to get himself tossed.

A lot of things can impact an NBA game.  I'm not saying that the referees gave this game to the Suns.  But they certainly didn't give it to the Clippers.  Take for instance two plays down the stretch.  Shaq lowers his shoulder into Brian Skinner to clear space and then turns to the basket and scores as Skinner is trying to grab him.  A three point play for the Suns that could just as easily have been a turnover on an offensive foul.  40 seconds later, Thornton picked up his fourth charge of the game running into Jason Richardson.  The correct call, I believe, but one that often goes the other way as well.  A potential three point play for the Clippers, wiped off the board by a whistle.  The score after those two plays had the Clippers behind by 5 - both of them go the other way and LA is up one - and the game was over.

The good news in all of this is that wins don't particularly matter to the Clippers.  I would no doubt feel much differently about the 8 to 1 ratio of offensive foul calls if the Clippers were battling for a playoff spot.  And you have to give the Suns credit.  Nash and Richardson and Hill were stepping in to cut off lanes - not my favorite play in basketball, but effective.  Nash drew five charges himself in this game.  Impressive.  That's better than 5 blocked shots - better than 5 steals.  You end a scoring threat, win the ball for your team AND hang a foul on an opponent. 

And for those who want to crucify Al Thornton and his basketball IQ for picking up 4 charges, I'm going to defend him a little.  None of these charges really struck me much like the 'head down' variety - I saw him trying to change direction, with the Suns guessing correctly.  Again, give the Suns defenders credit for having scouted Al well.  But let's recognize that Al had a terrific game, and more than anyone else kept the Clippers in it.  He was 10 for 16 for 23 points.  Adding in the 4 charges, he's still the equivalent of 10 for 20.  If he gets the benefit of any of those calls, he's going to the line and scoring more.  Let's face it - we want him going to the rack rather than shooting jump shots.  The price of that is going to be some charging calls, and as long as they're not really bone-headed (and I didn't see any of that variety) you have to take the good with the bad.

My assumption at the end of the third - the Suns up 13, the Clippers missing many opportunities with offensive fouls, calls seemingly not going their way, coach ejected - was that the game was already over.  It seemed unlikely that a young team would be able to climb such a big hill.  But they did, with Steve Novak hitting crucial threes along the way (why, oh why, did Jason Richardson keep leaving the guy?) 

But the simple fact is that the Clippers came back with Steve Nash and Grant Hill on the bench.  We said in the preview that the Suns reserves are less than impressive, and the really pretty bad in this game.  Barbosa, Barnes and Amundson (the only three reserves who appeared in the game) combined to shoot 4 for 19.  Nash and Hill sat out the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter, during which time the Clippers turned a 13 point deficit into a 1 point lead.  But Phoenix settled down and won the game with their starters back on the floor.  It's not news that Nash is vital to the team.  They don't really even have a backup point guard - Barbosa tries, but that's not who he is.  What surprised me was the performance of Hill.

I'm thrilled that Grant Hill is still in the league and having success.  After all the injuries he's suffered in his career, it's great that he's a starter in the NBA again, even if his first team all pro days are behind him.  But when I watched Hill on the Suns last season, he seemed out of place in D'Antoni's offense.  It looked like they wanted him to spread the floor and shoot threes on Nash kick outs, a la Raja Bell, and that's not who Grant Hill is.  Of course, on the D'Antoni Suns, the ball was in Nash's hands about 90% of the time.  Hill is a playmaker - he can create shots for himself, or for his teammates.  Porter, partly to keep Nash fresh, is allowing other people to handle the ball, and although I haven't watched a lot of Suns basketball this season, Hill has looked great against the Clippers and the Mavs in their last two games. 

All in all, a quality outing for the undermanned Clippers.  Mardy Collins had his fourth straight solid game as a starter.  10 dayer Fred Jones scored 13 and dished 10 assists (I'd venture a guess that Jones has never played point guard in his life before this stint with the Clippers).  Novak was three for three from deep, which is exactly what he has to do to be in this league - he has to make his open threes.  And Camby was his usual stellar self with 18 and 18.  Even Brian Skinner was effective, with 11 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocked shots and yeoman's work against the big prickly pear.

This group continues to play hard and exceed expectations.  If they play like this - and if Eric Gordon shoots well, which I assume he will - the Clippers are going to end their 11 game losing streak this week.

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what was kim hughes thinking taking out novak and fred jones at the end of the game?

by baronycamby on Jan 11, 2009 9:38 PM PST reply actions  

Not surprising, really

Novak made his threes, that much is true, but he’s a defensive liability. Eric Gordon was on the bench getting a rest, when Gordon was ready to come back, Novak sat down. Simple.

In Jones’ case, it looks like Hughes realized that the was playing well. Yes he took him out with 5:43 left – and he put him back in two minutes later for the finish. Jones had been on the floor for 15 minutes straight of game time – bear in mind this guy hadn’t played an NBA game this season before the Clippers signed him, so he’s still getting into game shape – so Hughes no doubt felt he had to get him some rest.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 12, 2009 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Randolph

what’s the word on when Randolph is returning?

by 7Swords of Salat on Jan 12, 2009 4:04 AM PST reply actions  

Randolph

the official word from the Clippers is ‘day to day’. When he was on the phone with Ralph and Mike in the first quarter of the Hornets game (I didn’t hear the interview), he apparently said something similar – middle of this week, something like that.

Lisa Dillman had a one sentence update in her game recap in today’s Times:

Davis (bruised tailbone) and Randolph (sore knee) could be back in about a week or so.

Vague enough for you?

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 12, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Since we have the 3rd worse record in the NBA, who is the best #3 prospect that we should look at ?

by Qlippers on Jan 12, 2009 9:14 AM PST reply actions  

Or they can trade it.

This years draft is going to be very weak. I wouldn’t trust the Clippers to make a good pick in a weak draft.

I think the Clippers and Dunleavy now realize the season is over and are not going to try hard to win games now. Best to protect their investments and move up in the draft position.

by FireDunleavy.com on Jan 12, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Trading is definitely an option

So far the only guys i’d be excited about are Harden, Monroe, & Jennings and i’m not even sure how Harden would fit on our squad, but there’s still plenty of time for guys to move up the draft board.

by ghost_ride on Jan 12, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Or down

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 12, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Right

But college kids tend to get better as they learn, especially freshmen.

by ghost_ride on Jan 12, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

As I mentioned last week

I don’t see them finishing this low once some guys come back. So short of holding Baron and Zach and Kaman out for the bulk of the season, they are unlikely to finish behind MIN and MEM and SAC, regardless of the standings today.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 12, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Who Knows

The “bad teams” are improving, especially Minnesota & OKC. Memphis is kind of underated…I guess adding a ROY favorite helps. We’re no lock to finish ahead of anyone the way this season is going, though I expect us to finish ahead of SAC & OKC.

by ghost_ride on Jan 12, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Draft pick

(Great job on the analysis, btw.) It wouldn’t be worth talking about except that the quality losses really are reaching an astonishing level, set against an unlikely team like Minnesota going on a win streak.

It really looks like the Clips are going to get a 5-8 pick in a weak draft, at worst. They just benefitted from getting a 7 pick in a strong draft, and did great with it, and also picked up two keepers in the second round. I like the point about Mardy Collins vying for the backup PG slot—that means that when Taylor comes back the Clips might want to waive Jason Hart, just to keep Collins, Jones, and Taylor active and have some “roster flexibility”—like trying out Hassan Adams for 10 days. And I want to consider Collins in a new light now, but that will wait.

I won’t say I told you so, because I was screaming just the opposite, but the Clips need a guy like Luke Walton or—surprise—MDjr… or Grant Hill or Shane Battier. Obviously James Posey or Trevor Ariza would probably suffice. I’m not sure why Novak isn’t getting a chance to redefine his role and show some passing skills during the current crisis, along the lines of what Collins and Jones are doing, instead of just being a shooter. I’d like to see him think of himself as a Luke Walton or an MDjr, just go out there and pretend to be that guy. But the Clips need Thornton to keep playing hard and get better, and they need to add the anti-Thornton. A defender or a passer or a guy who hits 3s or a combination of all of those, coming off the bench.

I need to study guys but I liked Harden so much last year—as much as Westbrook or Gordon. Not to be UCLAcentric, but will Darren Collison be available to the Clips, and do you take him when you’ve got Taylor (and Collins—and Gordon and BD)—I think that you do. We should probably assume that Harden and Jrue Holiday won’t be around. Holiday seems like he’s going to be a great pro and you would want to take him, but he might not even come out and he’s more like Gordon, and I don’t think you want Stephen Curry either, even though he might be amazing—at best he’s going to be amazing in kind of the same way as Gordon, but less strong and athletic.

So I don’t know about any SFs in the Battier mold at this point. LRMbah-Moute would be a good model for an anti-Thornton, wouldn’t he?

Guess I’ll go do some studying. When you’re a Clipfan, it’s never too early to think about these things.

by citizen zhiv on Jan 12, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm Looking at NCAA more and more...

For now Collins is proving capable and Fred Jones has shown flashes of being better than capable, as has Taylor. They all have one unfortunate thing in common however, none are very good shooters. With a healthy lineup of BD, EJ, Thornton, Randolph, Kaman, we have guys who can drive and score inside. What we could use is a shooter or two alongside EJ who can hurt opposing defenses from outside. It’s clear that Hart is a waste of a roster spot going forward.

I’ve been thinking the same thing about the lack of big time SF’s in the draft, which is also the consensus choice as our weakest starting position. But in our position, we pretty much have to take best available. If Harden is there, you have to take him. I’m pretty sure a PG, or PG/SG will be available to the Clips. I’m not a big fan of Collison (though he’d be an upgrade over Taylor), but Holiday, Jennings, and even Jeff Teague are intriguing. Monroe has shot up draft boards, and would be tough to pass up. Blake Griffin will probably go #1 overall, and Thabeet & Aldrich could go early as well, along with Curry, the underdog/ wildcard of the bunch.

The more I think about it, unless we get a really good deal our best bet is to keep the pick. A team like the Clippers can’t afford to miss out on a chance at the next best thing.

by ghost_ride on Jan 12, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions  

UCLA fans

Zhiv, Jax and Westside Brandon and perhaps others will tell you not to underestimate Collison, although Hollinger won’t like his age and the fact he’s a senior. I think UCLA will play well and his stock will rise. Westbrook, Love, and LRMM are all playing well, and Collison is the same class of player. His speed is phenomenal, he knows how to defend, finish, and shoot, and he’s going to be an excellent pro. The Clips don’t need him, because he’s similar in all sorts of ways to Taylor, but he’s a more polished player. It would also be fun to see him and BD (the Bruin) going against Farmar down the road. Holiday seems very similar to Westbrook. The Clips would be in great shape if they have a shot at either Harden or Holiday, I would think, although it will be hard to figure out how to split things up with BD and Gordon. High class problem, and my guess is that Baron Davis would get a whole lot better in a big hurry.

by citizen zhiv on Jan 12, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I like Collison

as a college player. He’s a far better shooter than a classic pg. I don’t think he’s strong enough. There are a number of pretty good players available. Harden, Holiday and DeRozan come to mind.

by Jax on Jan 12, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions  

DeRozan

Is looking pretty lukewarm right now…doesn’t seem to have the work ethic required to be a solid pro. He’s so young that there’s still time for the light bulb to go off, but if he ends up going 1 & done I’d be avoiding him if I were the Clippers.

We need the exact opposite: Someone who’s a relentless worker with a lot of energy and a good attitude.

by ghost_ride on Jan 13, 2009 12:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Young kid with good upside - I like him

Difficult IMO to so critically analyze an 18 year old college freshman. However, he comes from a good family and is a nice kid. No one knew who Russell Westbrook was as a college freshman.

by Jax on Jan 13, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Read DeRozan's latest op from draft express

and ghost ride might be right – not because of his work ethic, but rather b/c he may not be ready for the NBA

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Demar-DeRozan-1319/

by Jax on Jan 13, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I Hear Ya

Collison’s stock is definitely rising this year but I’d hate to see the Clippers use their 1st round pick on him. They really need some star power, and that high class problem you allude to could make us a scary team next year if we could apply that to both our front court and back court.

Guards: BD, EJ, Taylor + 1st Rd. Pick (Harden, Holiday, Jennings, Teague, etc.)
 PF/C’s: Randolph, Camby, Kaman, DeAndre

This would give us a stacked rotation at four positions, and obviously leave us with the same position at Small Forward w/ Thornton, and assuming no more moves are made we could keep Novak and/or Collins to back him up.

Or if the Clippers are somehow in the position to draft another big, they’d definitely have to pull a trade then, but I really like the idea of getting a high upside PG who’ll be able to push BD and create for all our playmakers.

by ghost_ride on Jan 13, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I question

whether we can really say that we’re stacked at C with Camby as old as he is and with Kaman who can’t stay healthy.

by Jax on Jan 13, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Good Point

Though Camby’s age seems to be the least of our issues right now as he’s leading the league in Rebounding. If he can stay healthy through this time next year, I’d sign him to another 2 year deal and let him retire a Clipper.

DeAndre should grow into a great energy guy off the bench, though I wouldn’t bank on him being a starter.

Kaman is a big question mark obviously, but we have the rest of the season to see how his situation develops. It’s a pretty fluid situation.

by ghost_ride on Jan 13, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Right, but

Camby is historically a HUGE injury risk who isn’t getting any younger. Do you really, want to bank your franchise on him?

I would trade Kaman. He’s got too many negatives for me.

by Jax on Jan 13, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Banking

I’d agree that it’s tough to Bank on Camby, but why not keep a good thing going as long as possible. Don’t think there’s an issue there.

A slight mistake the club made was banking on Kaman, staking him to his current contract. You could trade him sure, but would you really want to now while his value down…the tough thing is if he gets his trade value back up, trading him at that point would be a pretty balsy move, especially considering his age.

Keeping these 3 guys filling out our 2 front court spots seems to be a pretty sound strategy given their injury risk. Then again, all that changes come the draft in june.

by ghost_ride on Jan 13, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I say we trade our pick

maybe we could trade for a Batttier type player or a backup SG.

by bestclipfan on Jan 12, 2009 3:03 PM PST reply actions  

Collins and Initial Draft Study

The guy I want to think about with Mardy Collins right now is Ron Harper. Not “free Ron Harper” of Clipper fame and the injury annals, a great scorer and SG, but the post-injury Ron Harper who won 6 titles playing at the pg/off-guard in the triangle offense next to Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Collins has been worthless as a scorer his whole career and it’s a deep insult to RH mention him and Harper in the same sentence as NBA shooting guards. But Harper had a wildly successful second stage of his career when he was a big guard who was a great defender, able to get to the basket, handle and move the ball, and use his advanced scoring instincts to hit shots and make plays. Collins is a better ballhandler than we thought, and he has the big guard body and can play defense. He needs to move the ball better and be more aware of the court, but it seems like he’s doing a pretty good job. The excitement about this is that it makes Jason Hart extremely expendable, especially when Taylor gets back. The fact that Collins is a good ballhandler and doing a decent job playing PG seems to make him a significant upgrade over QRoss.

So there don’t appear to be any anti-Thornton SFs out there in the draft. Of course not. Why would there be, when that’s what the Clippers need. Collison is a nice player and he’s pretty far down the chart now. On DraftExpress Harden is at 2 and Holiday is at 4. They have the Clips taking Ty Lawson, and there are a whole bunch of PGs before you get to Collison at 18.

by citizen zhiv on Jan 12, 2009 4:15 PM PST reply actions  

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