The Dreaded 4th Qtr
by whydoiliketheclips on Jan 7, 2009 8:26 AM PST
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PrintIn analyzing our season thus far, it is interesting to note how many close games we have lost.
Out of 26 losses, 7 could be put in the not close category in which we did not have a real chance in the 4th quarter to win the game. A couple of these we were hovering around single digit deficits , but couldn't come any closer.
9 of the losses we were in the game in the 4th quarter, trailing by under 6 points, but finished weakly and didn't have a chance to win at the end.
10 losses were of the final possession category. We couldn't get a stop or make a last shot to win in regulation or prevent losing in overtime.
Success in the NBA comes down to being able to execute at the end of games and it is what separates the good teams from the bad. You need to have a coach to call the right sets and players who can come up big when the game is on the line.
We are clearly lacking in both those categories at this time.
Probably the best 8-26 team in history.
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Dreaded 4th Quarter
The problem is this team does not have a designated “go to guy”’ yet. You know Kobe or LaBron or Wade will be that person at crunch time. If they draw a double team they hit the other players. Even healthy, Baron Davis or Randolph may not fit this role which is a problem.
As great as Eric Gordon has played the last few games his lack of experience has shown at the end of games. I think he could be that person next year if Baron Davis will actually pass him the ball. He can drive and draw fouls or hit the open jumper. He just needs time to grow and have the confidence from the other veterans.
Hmmm...
“The last few games…” Wasn’t EJ EXACTLY that guy against the Pistons? He scored the Clippers final 11 points, didn’t miss in over 6 minutes, converted on consecutive possessions in the final 70 seconds, and even got the and-one to take the lead. He got a quality look with 2 seconds on the clock against a monster defender in Tayshaun Prince. The last two possessions of the Dallas game were a reality check, but taken together he looks like he’s well on his way to being that ‘go to’ guy.
Other than the details of the Detroit game, I agree 100% with your point. It has always been a huge problem for the Clippers that they have lacked that guy, and it is the way the NBA is structured – especially taking referees and the star system into account. Elton Brand was never a good enough one-on-one scorer to be that guy. Corey Maggette was way too dependent on getting calls that weren’t coming to be that guy. I thought Baron Davis was supposed to be that guy, but so far he hasn’t been. The best news of this season so far is that it looks like EJ (who just turned 20) will actually be that guy.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Dreaded last quarter
Don’t get me wrong Eric has done great down the stretch except for a couple rookie errors at the end e.g. ball stolen etc.. He is obviouisly the go to guy now but my concerns are when the others come back.
Will he see the ball much at the end when Randolph, Davis and David come back?. I question veterans like Randolph or B.Davis ability (or desire) to make the best decisions at crunch time that are not selfishly motivated. Neither has shown that ability or desire to date in their career inspite of tremendous physical talent. The Clips have some exceptional talent but I question if many of these main guys are chemistry players. At least less talented players like Marty and Hart know their roles when in the game. Eric Gordon actually sets people up on passes better than any of the veterans.
Good Breakdown
I was wondering about the numbers on this, and these facts confirm my guess.
My own view isn’t so much focused on “that guy,” though I agree with CS about Gordon showing some very positive signs in that direction. And let’s not forget that Al Thornton has not been playing great at all, but he has managed to hit a few big, pressure shots too—it’s hard to calculate how Thornton and his play thus far this year fits into the emergence of Gordon. That’s a good topic in itself.
But my own theory on the dreaded 4th quarter is that the team has not been able to forge a unified identity because of injuries. I’ll discuss that in greater length elsewhere, but I think that having the chance to get on the same page and form the identity in the first place is the crucial ingredient, and the Clippers were never able to do that because of injuries both early and late. More on the QL & ATT thread.
This is a really complex issue.
I don’t think that it comes down to specific late posessions, but moreso to that old cliche of “learning how to win.” These Clippers are way to affected by injuries to key veterans to be in a place where they’re going to learn to win. Gordon’s been great, but he’s not going to be great in late game situations when the Clippers don’t have any other options. If Randolph were healthy, it would totally change the complexion of these situations.
by WestsideBrandon on Jan 7, 2009 11:58 PM PST reply actions
Randolph
He’s only played in a baker’s dozen games for the Clippers, but he had some success in late game situations. The team had two MAJOR collapses during those games – at Dallas and at Chicago.
Dallas was his third game with the team and his second start. The Dallas zone also disrupted the Clippers offense in the fourth quarter. At any rate, whether it was the zone or his newness on the team, very few crucial possessions went through him during the crucial final 5 minutes, but the couple of touches he did get were not good.
Chicago was much better. He delivered basically every time they him the ball through regulation. Of course, the final play was called for him, but Thornton was in the wrong place and ended up getting the ball.
The Clippers close wins also came during Zach’s tenure. At Portland he scored 38, but he did not get a hot in the final 3 minutes of regulation. I honestly can’t remember if he was getting touches, though I assume he was. No doubt Portland’s defense was focused on him. At Indy he came through multiple times in the clutch.
So it seems clear that MDsr, at least partly because of his natural preferences, will run plays through z-bo at the end of close games (and at the beginning of non-close games for that matter – he’s going to do this a lot in all situations).
But it’s important to note the difference between the last 3 minutes of a close game, and the last 7 seconds of a close game. When the situation comes down to one possession with relatively little time on the clock, it’s crucial to have a perimeter player you can turn to. There may not be time for a post player to establish position, the entry pass can go wrong. In short, it’s just infinitely easier to inbound the ball directly to Kobe, or Wade, or LeBron and get out of the way.
That perimeter player was supposed to be Baron (who has delivered on exactly ONE crucial possession this season, against Portland). I’m thinking it will be Gordon before too much longer.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
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