Always great to see CS so expertly servicing my crackpot commentaries. What he said. It was maybe just a little fun last year, and it’s great to see that the Clips got Eric Gordon out of it, but this year is different. No such thing as a quality loss; feel free to win some games. It seems now that the only thing we have to look forward to is the last 30 games of the season, when the team might be healthier and should be fun to watch, and might be competing very well against teams that are going to the playoffs. Again, let’s feel free to win.

There’s some question as to what the Clippers might want to get out of the draft. That’s part of what’s maddening: how can such a bad team appear to be so solid at virtually every position? Of course you can always use more high performance wings and other backups, but there’s nobody I don’t like on a roster with Kaman-Camby-Randolph-BDavis-AThornton-EGordon, and I’ll keep going with Taylor and Jordan in their roles as rookies and guys who are developing. CS mentions playing Jordan more as the season goes on, which I would support, but I’m not sure exactly how it will work once Kaman and ZBo come back. I guess I’d like to see Novak play a little bit more, just to know what that’s like, especially with Thornton struggling a bit. And I’d be happy to see Ricky Davis come back and be very productive, and MCollins seems to be doing okay as a QRoss replacement, and he’s even getting some Rick Brunson minutes and doing okay with them. But Novak, Davis2, Collins, Skinner, and Hart are the guys that you’re talking about upgrading with a draft pick, along with Thornton perhaps.

Breaking it down, I guess I’d say that Thornton has this season and part of the next to prove that he is a full-fledged replacement of Maggette and a clear starter and productive scorer, but he could end up being a 6th man—a big upgrade over the guy who Davis2 was on the roster at the beginning of the season. But we want Thornton to get both comfortable, very hot, and very productive, and to see how he plays once the team is at full strength.

CS points out that if 07-08 was catastrophic from the outset, all of it a riptide caused by the Livingston and Brand injuries. 08-09 is something different, a new breed of the virus, and it is especially nasty and insidious. So what is it, exactly?

It starts with all of the player turnover. It’s easy with hindsight, but the mere fact of the FElton affair and such dramatic roster upheaval made success unlikely, and impossible once injuries hit the team. It’s very important to remember, in calculating all of this, that there have been two distinct phases of the injury problem. The current one seems especially bad because there are so many victims who seem so naggingly close to coming back; it’s sheer numbers. But I would argue that phase one was the infection that killed the Clippers season and hopes before they even began.

Which brings us to Marcus Camby. The guy is just spectacular. Am I wrong, or is he having one of the greatest Clipper seasons ever? And it’s not a surprise—he’s been playing like this for years. So it’s really important for us to remember, even now as he’s one of the few guys still standing, that his training camp, preseason, and first few games illness and injury KILLED the Clipper season before it began. He’s a glue player, he does all of the little things, he sets the table for other players, he rebounds and blocks shots like crazy and he passes the ball, he’s awesome. But he wasn’t around. This guy, this great player, was missing from the equation. The Clips needed to see all of this stuff, to experience it and learn to play with it, to be inspired by it, and it was absent, non-existent, a gaping hole and looming question mark. With FElton’s departure, plugging the hole with Camby was absolutely crucial, and it didn’t happen. It’s great to see now that he’s a great player, but when the Clips needed to form their identity he wasn’t available. Insidious, like I said.

For me, the rest of the well-known struggles and setbacks are just dominoes falling after the initial opportunity to gel was lost. There are silver linings like the accelerated development of Gordon and the trade for Zach Randolph. The preseason tailbone injury of Baron Davis was just a contributing factor, not definitive like Camby’s absence, and if the Clips had managed to gel and develop a fighting stance and attitude I think that Davis would have been the perfect guy to make it all run and put it together. My favorite comment amongst the recent Clipper statements is BD saying that his first year in GSW was rocky and a big struggle, but they came back in year two very strong, resilient, and determined. That’s what seems to be going on here.

So it’s not about tanking. It’s about bringing together a talented and fairly healthy group for the second half of the season, to develop identity, chemistry, a winning attitude and the ability to close out games and step on the opponent’s neck and keep them down. The waiting—two more undermanned road games, no clarity about the return of Kaman and Randolph—is excrutiating once again. I don’t need to remind anybody about how we just went through this, waiting for Kaman-Brand, and how it never happened.

Clipanuary: the more it changes, the more it stays the same.

what do u feel about drafting steph curry out of davidson?

Such a bleak time of year! Thanks for the great writing and well thought out analysis CS and Zhiv. I wholeheartedly agree, especially with giving the Clips permission to win. Winning would be so much better to discuss than rehashing bad trade ideas, calling for the coach’s head or scouting a weak draft. Who knows, maybe club optimism could even open its doors again.

Should have traded the pick before the season, or trade it now. The Clippers haven’t shown an ability to keep it’s players.

On tanking, it’s not worth the risk now to play someone on a long term contract unless they’re 110% healthy.

And it’s probably to late to win back any season ticket holders.

Taking another look at that 06-07 Boston team their typical rotation included a couple good young players Rondo and Al Jeff, and a few players who have not panned out in Gerald Green, Allan Ray, and Sebastian Telfair.

I’m focusing on Green because he was considered a major talent and finished that season avging 15 a game in April.

Upon going to Minnesota, Al Jeff thrived. In Boston, Jefferson had already seen an ascension from flashes to consistently 16-10. Green, however was a year behind Al Jeff.

Green’s stats rose in his second season from 5 pts to 10. He appeared to be headed toward a successful career. Then he went from one losing team to situations he could not succeed in. Minnesota quickly gave up on him. Houston had no room for him. Dallas does not play him (even as Howard and Antoine Wright sat b/c of injuries).

Coming into the NBA, Granger and G.Green were compared favorably. Boston was a 33-49 team, Indiana a 41-41 playoff team. Granger was an important component on that team. In Granger’s rookie season he plays daily with Artest, Sjax, Joneal, and learns quickly that with Artest demanding a trade, he can step in right away on a team that won 62 games before the Artest melee. His coach gives him consistent minutes and he gains officials respect. The greatest SF of all time is his general manager.

Now to Gerald Green. Green plays for a coach with a maddening substitution pattern. Paul Pierce is still in a career long funk caused by his near fatal stabbing. He plays for a GM who never takes Green’s name out of trade rumors. He gets traded to play for a coach who did not develop Randy Foye (was compared to Wade), Corey Brewer (an elite defender in college), McCants (prolific scorer). Not only that, Green is prone to mental lapses and plays for a coach who despises mental mistakes. Future career stop gap, Ryan Gomes plays the bulk of the minutes ahead of him.

The difference between Granger and Green is remarkable now. Would Green have made it on the Pacers? Perhaps the better question is if Ron Artest is not traded and Peja, Joneal, Tinsley, Sjax all healthy…does Danny Granger become a 25 pt a game, 7 reb, 1blk, 1stl monster?

I don’t think previous Clipper ever had a chance to live up to expectations. The Clippers are consistently badly coached. They play second fiddle to the Lakers, and perhaps their players lose motivation to become great playing second fiddle.

I just think we’re missing the point when we call for tanking. Some guys are born to be busts, and some guys never have a chance. Someone like Tyson Chandler was a huge bust before he played with Chris Paul.

I think what’s important to look at is how is he being helped along by coaching, opportunity, and dumb luck. What incentives come his way. Ultimately, who teaches him how to win.

I liked this quote from Rocky Balboa,

“… somewhere along the line, you changed. You stopped being you. You let people stick a finger in your face and tell you you’re no good. And when things got hard, you started looking for something to blame, like a big shadow. Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It’s a very mean and nasty place and I don’t care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain’t about how hard ya hit. It’s about how hard you can get it and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! Now if you know what you’re worth then go out and get what you’re worth. But ya gotta be willing to take the hits, and not pointing fingers saying you ain’t where you wanna be because of him, or her, or anybody! Cowards do that and that ain’t you! You’re better than that!”

Who in the Clippers organization can get through to players with a speech like that?

What would it be like if Odom or QRich or Dmiles or Olowokandi had started their careers for Phil Jackson, D’Antoni or Sloan?

I mean at some point, QRich had a more promising career than Joe Johnson. The difference in their careers is that as Qrich was peaking in 2004 avging 17 a game for the Clippers, JJ was growing in 2004 aving 17 a game as a Sun.

Of course, their skillset and injuries made things different for them. But look at their stats.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/richaqu01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo02.html

If Joe Johnson had played for the Clippers in 2004 does he become the stud he is today?

This version of the Clippers has a gunner running the point, Ricky Davis just suspended for drugs, and a 20-10 machine, defines knucklehead, who nobody but the Clippers really wanted.

Eric Gordon can be a star, but will he be a 24pt, 4.5 rebound, 4.5 asst, 2stl, 2 turnover stud or a 26 pt, 2 reb, 2asst, 1stl, 3.5to best player on a bad team.

Tanking is not going to get us anywhere unless everything else is in place.

In an attempt to simplify all of the important issues being brought up as related to “Advanced Tanking Theory”, the focus right now has to be on the 09-10 season. To do our best to create a winning culture going into next season would definitely be a positive thing. On the other hand, the more we lose due to circumstance, the better draft pick we get later this summer.

Of course, the draft doesn’t always work out. Winning out might end up netting us a better draft pick than losing out. Look at Chicago last year, and Orlando when they rocketed up the board to get Shaq. Who knows. So i’ll have to agree with going after wins right now.

In the back of my mind however, I think this team needs another big talent in the 09’ draft, preferrably at PG or SF. Poing Guard, whether it be back-up PG or BD insurance, the position needs to be addressed. Small Forward. We need someone to push Thorton, or replace him, because he’s no lock to be a positive contributor to this team long term.

One impressive thing about the Eastern Conference is that there aren’t any “bad teams”. Washington is the closest thing record-wise, but once they get Arenas back they should make a push out of last place. The Western Conference has OKC, Minnesota, & Sacramento.

Where the Eastern Conference is hurting is their 7th & 8th seeds in the playoffs. You could make a case for the top 6 in either conferences belonging. But New Jersey, Milwaukee, or whoever winds up winning these last two spots will not be a better team than the 9th seed in the West.

Warriors fan here and I’m curious as to why you think the Dubs will be in the tank this season. Sure there is some front office turmoil but by and large, they seem to be in about the same situation as the Clippers. Constant injury problems, never playing with their entire team and much better than their record shows (or at least I hope so).

With our entire lineup healthy, the Warriors have a very potent offense that can beat anyone on any given night. I think that once Ellis gets back, the Warriors will play at least .500 ball (as you have predicted for the Clippers when their injured players get back).