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Building a Roster - How we Got This Clippers Team

After the San Antonio game, Citizen Zhiv was riffing on DeJuan Blair and draft steals and the karmic circle that has brought us to this roster, and I think it's a topic worthy of it's own post.  And of course we have to make the obligatory preface that the team has yet to play a regular season game, and things could obviously veer horribly karmicly wrong at any moment now.  But even if that happens, I think it's safe to say that you don't have to be a member of Club Optimism to see that the Clippers are in a pretty good place, roster wise, entering the season.  Certainly a much better place than they have been over the last two seasons.  So how did we get here?

Star-divide

For the ten players who figure most prominently into this season's rotation and the future of the franchise,
  • five of them were added via the draft (Griffin, Gordon, Jordan, Thornton and Kaman);
  • four of them arrived via trade (Camby, Butler, Smith and Telfair);
  • and one was a marquee free agent signing (Baron Davis).

But it's worth digging into a couple of those categories a little deeper. 

Of the draft picks, four of them (Griffin, Gordon, Jordan and Thornton) were added in the last three drafts - this is significant, as it means they are all still on their rookie contracts.  Kaman arrived in the 2003 draft, and signed an extension in 2006.

Of the tradees, Camby and Butler are in a slightly different category.  In each case, the Clippers took a starter off the hands of an overbudget team in exchange for the NBA trade equivalent of nothing - a heavily protected future second round draft pick or some such.  These trades highlight the reality of the modern NBA - trades used to be about talent-for-talent - you evaluated them on who got the best player in the deal.  When players are only moving one direction, it's a little different.  In the cases of Camby and Butler, these are almost akin to free agent signings, and you can in fact trace them directly to an earlier roster event.  Elton Brand's defection to Philadelphia via free agency produced the room under the salary cap to allow the Clippers to make the mis-matched salary Camby trade.  As for Butler, the trade of Zach Randolph to Memphis was mismatched in salary the other way, generating a trade exception for the Clippers, which they turned into Butler (so far - they still have some of it left).

And of course Randolph is the player that spawned Telfair and Smith as well.  Randolph, became Quentin Richardson, Richardson became Smith and Telfair.  Tracing the legacy a bit further back, Randolph himself came to the Clippers in exchange for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas, who were free agent signings in 2005 and 2006 respectively.

So that's the relatively short answer to how the roster was built.  But let's go a little deeper.

It's axiomatic that good NBA teams draft well.  In the interim between the Kaman draft in 2003 and the Thornton draft in 2007, the Clippers have nothing to show.  Three drafts, two lottery picks, four second rounders (some of them pretty high), and the team has NOTHING.  None of the players even left as part of a deal - they all just left.  That's a complete disaster, right?  Well, maybe not.  Andrew Bogut, the first player in Korolev's draft, is due to make $60M over the next five seasons.  I like Bogut, and I think he's a pretty good center.  But you think we're worried about Kaman's injury issues?  Bogut missed 46 games last season with back issues.   My point is, if you draft well, it's an unqualified success for the duration of the rookie contract.  Then, you have to re-sign the guy, and unless the guy is LeBron James or Chris Paul or someone in that category (that is, a very elite group, and probably only a couple of guys each draft on average), there's a distinct possibility that you might be overpaying them.  It's not an excuse (and only slight facetious) - but Korolev is a great pick compared to some as regards the bottom line.  He's gone, and he was gone quickly.  No roster spot, no cap space, gone.  Spending that money on someone else.  Same with Shaun Livingston.

In that sense, the Clippers are incredibly lucky that they've strung three good drafts together, after three strike outs.  You'd much rather have that than the same batting average, but getting your base hits every other draft.  Why?  Because it provides a window where all the rookies are together, and still on their rookie deals.  Think about it - of the five draft picks on the team, which one is paid by far the most?  Kaman makes $10M, because he was re-signed.  Whether you think Kaman is overpaid or underpaid is beside my current point - he is highly paid, because he's no longer on his rookie deal. 

And not having a 2004, 2005 or 2006 pick on the roster, as painful as that seems from a basketball standpoint, is just peachy from a salary cap standpoint.  The Clippers have had the financial flexibility in the last few seasons to sign Baron Davis and to trade for Marcus Camby.  Not to mention that they weren't too afraid of the cost to use their trade exception on Rasual Butler.  See, karma?  Korolev becomes Camby.  Not really, but you get the idea.

Of course, you could argue that there's something much less eastern than karma at work here.  Having three consecutive completely empty drafts, while also suffering injuries to all your key players, causes you to have a bad record, which increases the odds that you win the lottery, and if you play the game with decent odds enough times, eventually you're going to win.  So it's just the NBA's version of rewarding incompetence, and not the law of moral causation.

Sure, if you believe in the NBA lottery.

2 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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great read

i’m not saying that your other articles aren’t, but this one was especially well written.

kudos!

by wily6 on Oct 20, 2009 4:07 PM PDT reply actions  

a little off topic

but seeing mbenga stomp back in forth, watching andrew bynum hide behind the towel, and watching both the lakers and clippers bench in awe after Blake threw down that dunk? PRICELESS hahahahah

by big0lbad on Oct 20, 2009 4:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Luck

Nobody can understate the role of luck in all this. The bottom line is that the Clips did pretty well in the last 3 drafts…but one was a complete no brainer because we completely lucked out. Just like we got unlucky getting the #1 overall pick in a year when Kandi happened to be the top guy.

It could have easily gone the other way where the Clips got another late lottery pick and pick a dud. With Blake Superior wearing Clippers red, white and blue, we can all look back at recent history and laugh and enjoy our good fortune. But the reality is that bad teams squander bad picks and it cripples their franchise. The Clips wasted getting lucky with the #2 overall pick by drafting Livingston (not saying it was a bad pick at the time, just talking about what ended up happening). That coupled with the Korolev bomb threatened to hurt this franchise for years to come. It just so happened that we got lucky with the ping pong balls this summer that changed everything.

Because the truth is, if we didn’t win the lottery, this team wouldn’t be looking all that good and we’d be talking ourselves into how good Zach Randolph will be with a full training camp.

by madglove on Oct 20, 2009 4:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Hopefully it will change things

but past history suggests otherwise. The Spurs got lucky with Duncan not because they sucked but because the Admiral was hurt that year. They had a great coach and good management in place to transform that luck into wins.

Don’t forget, Elton Brand was a top pick. We had a franchise player for years and had a winning record for one of those years.

by Jax on Oct 20, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's see how the Spurs do without Duncan before we go crediting anything but luck

It was still luck on the Spurs part that Duncan came out that year.

The second pick was Keith Van Horn.

by John R on Oct 20, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I had a nickel...

for every time Jax referenced coaching & management in an attempt to criticize MDSr, I’d, well, have a whole lot of freaking nickels.

That said, you have to give a tremendous amount of credit to Pops and Buford for the Timmy! era in San Antonio. The Spurs may have “lucked” into Duncan, but the organization certainly skilled their way to consistent success and four championships.

by supac on Oct 20, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

You'd have even more if you had a nickel for every time

numerous knowledgeable sportswriters, bloggers, etc., criticized them. Why limit your cash to my comments!!

I agree with your comment.

Nice to seek you back, John R. However, your suggestion that Coach Pop and management may not have had anything to do with the team’s success is laughable

by Jax on Oct 20, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

EB

Think we’d all agree that EB was never an elite player. Chicago sensed it, and was willing to trade him, though he did turn out to be very good and put in the work to be a top 15 player for a couple of years at his height.

by ghost_ride on Oct 20, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess it depends on your definition of the term "franchise"

He has averaged 20/10/2 blks with good percentages for his entire career. Not sure if he’s elite, but he was good enough to build a team around.

Ask anyone in Chicago about whether they’d like a redo on that deal. That was a moronic trade.

by Jax on Oct 20, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Totally agree...

Not sure where ghost_ride’s going with that argument. Elton Brand is/was/has been way way way better than Tyson Chandler. Stupid trade. No argument.

by swamigusto on Oct 20, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

And the argument comes full circle...

Clippers clearly got a deal in trading second pick Chandler for Brand. But they blew the number 2 pick in drafting Livingston. Obviously they should have taken Emeka Okafor in 2004, whose original team just traded him for… Tyson Chandler.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Oct 20, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Full Circle

Interesting comment to think that at this point picking Okafor would have been a no-brainer. Oddly enough, the stumbling block at the time was FElton. But it was also Kaman as well. And in the meantime, the Clips needed a PG of the future badly and they thought that Liv had the potential to be a franchise player.

And the big thing was missing out on the number one pick, which it turns out was the franchise-maker: Dwight Howard. That’s where their luck fell just short.

Now, because of the subsequent track record and events with both FElton and Kaman, Okafor seems like a more solid pick. But what about Devin Harris? That would have been a safe and effective move too. When I think of that draft I usually think that they should have taken Harris, not that they should have taken Okafor. They rolled the dice on Liv, and it didn’t work out. Bummer.

by citizen zhiv on Oct 21, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Clips didn't have the #2 pick in 2004

They had the 4th pick, so they never had a shot at Okafor. If they had the 2nd they definitely would’ve snagged Okafor ‘cuz he & Dwight Howard were considered choices 1 and 1a, with Orlando likely to go either way (meanng someone who can produce now versus someone who has potential to be better down the road). The Bobcats had #2 and were psyched to take whoever the Magic didn’t snag.

That said, if we wanna go into the world of hindsight, that draft was stacked. Other options we now can say the Clips should’ve gone for: Devin Harris, Andre Iguodala, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Luol Deng (well depends on if he ever returns to health), Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Anderson Varejao, Trevor Ariza, JR Smith, plus solid players like Josh Childress, Delonte West, and yes, current Clipper Telfair.

Hmm, maybe if we’d drafted Telfair instead of Livingston, we could’ve just skipped through 5 years of bad karma?

by FullyClips.com on Oct 21, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry

They had the #2 pick and traded down to take Liv at #4. They passed on Okafor because they had FElton and Kaman, and they needed a point guard.

by citizen zhiv on Oct 21, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hingsight versus real time

My issue with trading down was always that they didn’t get enough. As citizen FC correctly points out, it was Howard/Okafor 1a/1b at the time – in fact, when the Clippers made the trade, it’s not as if Orlando had settled on Dwight – at least not publicly. Seems like you need to get more than a second rounder in that case.

So keeping the pick, the ‘no-brainer’ at the time was Okafor – once the Magic took Howard, Okafor was next, everyone at the time would have agreed. In hindsight, maybe that was really Jefferson – but at the time it was Okafor.

With the fourth pick, it was Livingston/Harris, and this is one of the rare cases where the alternative at the time is still the best alternative. Ignoring Jefferson, who likewise overlaps with Brand/Kaman, the guards to choose from, even in hindsight, were Harris and Jameer – and Harris looks like the best pick still.

But of course you can’t account for career ending injuries. Those who say that Liv’s situation was inevitable because of his frame but then argue we should have taken Harris are being disingenuous – Harris is also a frail guy.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Oct 23, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

What a terrible deal

All we got back was a 2nd rounder pick (which we used for Peja Drobjnak). Another case where DTS was trying to save a few bucks. We should have at least gotten at least a future 1st round pick.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 25, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Scratch that

We got Lionel Chalmers not Drobber. I forgot we drafted Super Nintendo Chalmers (Simpsons joke).

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 25, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

If my memory recalls...

there were reasons other than we didn’t need Okafor/Howard because of Kaman and Brand…

Bobcats were in expansion draft mode, this trade had an agreement that they could only take Peja Drobjnak. Not sure exactly of all the reasons or if they just didn’t want to risk the Bobcats taking someone else (not sure who).

I think it was also cost cutting move to make room to possibly sign Kobe

…all in all, in hindsight this was a terrible draft. at the time….not so bad

by KidJustin on Oct 26, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great summary

The NBA lottery can be a beautiful thing sometimes – look at some of the franchise-changing lottery success stories over the past decade or so:

1) Shaq – Magic
2) Tim Duncan – Spurs
3) AI – Sixers
4) Yao – Rockets
5) Lebron – Cavs
6) Dwight – Magic

All were #1 picks if you didn’t know already…

by banandy on Oct 20, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions  

Yea but

Consider how bad the Sixers, Cavs and Magic were the years leading up to those picks and where those #1 picks took them. Every single one of those 6 listed took the team that drafted them to the NBA Finals.

by madglove on Oct 20, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

No question

Just thought it was interesting anyway….

by Michael White on Oct 20, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's Amazin'

How much one player can affect a team in basketball. The same can’t be said for baseball or football.

by ghost_ride on Oct 20, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's pretty simple really...

Basketball plays only 5 guys at a time on each side…not many team sports have such a small number of players.

by banandy on Oct 20, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great Post

The “deep” part about the benefit of empty draft picks is kind of a head-scratcher, but in a good way. It’s always hard to trace the logic of how Korolev becomes not just Camby, but really Thornton and Camby, but this is a good attempt.

Everything changes so fast. If you had said, at this point last year, that Thornton is the least likely of 4 Clippers on rookie deals in Oct 09 to get an extension, it would have seemed nutty. We don’t know where things are headed, but Griffin-Gordon-Jordan seem to be the young core, complemented by BDavis and Kaman. That covers 4 positions, with a good overlap at center, and it doesn’t mention Camby. The next piece that the Clips need to add is at the SF spot, but Thornton and Butler and maybe some Griffin will hold down the spot nicely for the exciting year ahead. And the crazy thing is that if the Clippers had drafted Granger instead of Korolev, the current team would be completely different—literally nothing would be the same.

After so many years and so much ineptitude at every level, and so many injuries, the Clippers luck really has seemed to turn around. It’s interesting to contrast the feeling about Livingston versus the feelings about Gordon and now of course Griffin. We were always waiting on Liv. It was always something, and then it turned out to be one horrible thing, killing the dream that he would become an elite player. It’s interesting how Gordon emerged rather quietly, well under the national radar. Then there was the gathering of the other pieces, and even BDavis’ horrendous season last year is a handy storyline and set-up. But, by contrast, the arrival of Griffin is anything but quiet. It’s more like an explosion. And it’s just so timely, and this post should begin the process of making it clear to all of the zillions of fans who are so used to dismissing the Clips—where did all those guys come from? How did that team get Blake Griffin? We all know how painful it was, that it wasn’t easy. It was the perfect combination of both luck and intense suffering.

by citizen zhiv on Oct 20, 2009 5:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I was going to bring up the the Korolev-Granger idea

..would he be stunted by Maggette?
..would he overtake Maggette?
..would he have been our answer to who should start Maggette or Ross?(…making it neither)
..would we have gone further in the playoffs that year?
..would his impact result in us not being able to draft Thornton? or Gordon the year later? or Griffin the year after that?

no matter the answers of the first 4 questions….the last one, to me, is the most important one. I would take Thornton, Gordon, Griffin vs. Granger + whoever was drafted instead..and there wasn’t much after we got those guys (i can only see, maybe, Nick Young in the Thornton draft)

by KidJustin on Oct 20, 2009 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting

To get Griffin, we had to win all of 19 games last year. You’d take that over Granger?

by Jax on Oct 21, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

A lineup of dominos

—he wouldn’t have been stunted by Maggette. He would have been able to develop at a nice, manageable pace.
—he would eventually overtake Maggette. The question is when. Perhaps he would have started when Maggs was injured in 05-06 (would he have been a rookie?). He might well have been the starter in 06-07, with Maggette coming off the bench. The Clippers would have been more successful. If they were in the same place, they would have drafted Stuckey instead of Thornton, but chances are they would have had a better record and probably in the playoffs. (It’s one of those impossible questions: would Liv have been injured in this parallel universe?)
—Yes, he would have been the answer to the Maggettifesto issues.
—that year, we probably would have made the playoffs, rather than missing them and picking Thornton.
—yes, the Clips would not have picked Thornton, nor would they have picked Stuckey. Assuming Liv was injured and Cassell plays out his deal, they would have been in the market for a PG a year before they signed BDavis. Assuming FElton was injured before the start of the season, it’s interesting to note that Maggette might have become the starting PF in the way that Thornton eventually did in 07-08, although the awesome (not) Tim Thomas probably would have still been the starter. It’s hard to say who the draft pick might have been instead of Thornton. It’s doubtful, even with Kaman 2.0, Granger, Maggs and Mobley, that they would have made the playoffs, but they probably would have done better… and thus no Gordon.
—Definitely no Griffin either.

There are a lot of steps, and no way to tell what would have happened. It took a huge disaster and three nightmarish years, along with some luck (DJordan falling, Gordon still on the board, getting the #1 pick to take Griffin) to put this nucleus together. Hard to say if it was worth it, especially when 05-06 was so successful.

by citizen zhiv on Oct 21, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Kudos

Great article, well researched and written.

I suppose in theory we should strike out in the next 3 drafts which would enable us to ensure cap space is available for Gordon and Blake Superior in particular. Why commit unnecessary money when you don’t need to?

by Natedog1977 on Oct 22, 2009 6:29 AM PDT reply actions  

Some teams do it

Some teams intentionally trade away their picks – especially good ones. First rounders get guaranteed deals, late first rounders rarely make a difference, loaded rosters are more likely to be over the cap. So the Lakers, for instance, just sold their pick this year.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Oct 23, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

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