Analysis of Dunleavy's Flaws in Loss to Pacers
by moKi on Nov 26, 2009 4:11 AM PST
24 comments
Am I the only Clipper fan who believes in their heart that the Clippers would have won tonight's game if they had a better coach?
I believe tonight's game was an excellent example of why Dunleavy's "just give me healthy players and I'll win" statements are NOT TRUE.
Logic: Arguably, tonight the Clippers had MORE and "BETTER" healthy players than the Pacers. Dunleavy's own son did not play. Granger did not play. MDSr would be stupid to argue that the Pacers had more healthy players than the Clippers...so the Clippers should have won. That is Dunleavy's argument, isn't it?
So what flaws did tonight's game highlight in Dunleavy's coaching?
1. His Worst Fatal Flaw - Overconfidence and Arrogance
Clipper players find out the other team will have no stars on the floor and come out soft (except for Baron maybe). The effort is decent but not enough to put away the Pacers, just enough to stay slightly ahead.
As a coach Dunleavy should have thought this at about 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter...
"Man my guys can't make a shot! Chris, Al and Rasual can't seem to buy one! We should be up by much more. If we let them hang around like this, these Pacer bench guys might beat us, especially since we're on their court. I've got to mix things up a little and try some other guys and see if any of them can get hot."
Sure, it's possible you could lose the lead if your bench guys can't produce but your starters are dead cold anyway so it's not a huge risk. You manage it as it goes. Plus isn't that the whole point of having 15 players? You need to give guys a chance to come in with energy and mix things up. TAKE A CHANCE. Make your bench guys believe that they are better than the Pacers 2nd unit. Get them to play HARDER.
But no. Dunleavy probably thought...
"Our bench guys don't match up well against what the Pacers have out there. We'll get killed. Chris and Al will get hot. We just need to keep getting them the ball and eventually their shots will start falling."
Instead of being humble during the game and recognizing that this game was in danger, in enough danger to try and mix things up - Dunleavy was overconfident. He figured his guys were in a little slump and that they would click into gear and eventually pull away. He must have been thinking that. Why else would any coach leave in so many players who were CLEARLY having a bad night?
Dunleavy is arrogant. In competitive sports It may be an asset sometimes, but he displays it far too often for my liking. It's one thing to be Phil Jackson and arrogant, it's another to be Dunleavy. That kind of arrogance needs to be earned and backed up by some big guns. I don't think MDSrs earned anything yet and he doesn't have guns on the level of Kobe or MJ.
2. Failure to Recognize and React to Flow/Momentum
I don't know how many times I've heard Phil Jackson say "Momentum is a fickle girl. I thought the play where... got them the momentum so we have to try and get it back..." PJ is a master of recognizing and reacting to shifts in the game - whether it's the way the calls are going or the level of his teams energy.
Far too often, I feel Dunleavy calls timeouts too late. He doesn't seem to sense the need to change things BEFORE the other team starts taking away momentum. By the time he makes changes it's too late.
In tonight's game, Dunleavy for reasons unknown does not give Mardy a chance to stabilize the team early. He waits until the Pacers have overcome an 11 point deficit to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Clips have lost all momentum, on the road, with 6:25 left in the game trailing 74-70. Dunleavy bringing in Mardy at this point is a clear sign of desparation. He's grasping for straws now (he didn't even try Novak until the begining of the 4th and that wasn't working either).
The other team can sense when you're backpedaling. They sense desperation and at home, that gives them a great chance to win, especially if they have a lead. A good opponent will smell it and crush you. A bad team, at home will just find some way to beat you.
At halftime Dunleavy told Blanton "We're playing good defense, we're holding them to 30%..." or something like that. I laughed. The Clips were playing OK defense but the Pacers were just missing badly. In my book, I'm thinking "they're not gonna miss those looks the whole game!" Anyone who knows O'Brien's style of coaching knows that he tells his players to keep shooting it and it'll go in. He's all about letting players feel free to jack it up.
Dunleavy on the other hand is a control freak. There's a big difference in letting players feel free to shoot, giving them 20 FGAs and calling the same play over and over, force feeding a player 20 FGAs just because he's supposed to have the advantage.
3. Failure to Impose His Lineups
Of course I didn't have a chance to ask him, but there's a good chance that he didn't go to Mardy, Ricky or Novak earlier in the game because of his first 2 flaws, but also because Dunleavy seems to always insist on matching up to the other team.
He avoids gambling on the fact that maybe a different Clipper lineup would be more successful at any given time and FORCE THE OTHER COACH TO REACT.
In tonight's game, it was very clear that he thought Chris and Al should be winners in his matchup game. Whether at his instructions or not Al got 15 looks and Chris got 19. They made 5 shots between the both of them.
A good coach needs to realize that just because your guy wins on paper doesn't mean that you keep going to him over and over again if it's NOT WORKING. At a certain point, ESPECIALLY ON THE ROAD, you have to cut your losses, bench your horse and tell him "Sorry, it's not your night. I have to try something else."
Chris should not have played 39 minutes tonight. What about the matchup? It;s called trying Skinner or Craig Smith. Force the Pacers to adjust to them.
At one point in the second quarter, Ralph noted how O'Brien had swapped everyone out on the Pacer team because basically his entire first unit was not getting it done. The Pacers' coach took a chance and it worked.
How many times as Clipper fans do we see MDSr take a chance at the right time? How often does he make drastic substitutions when the team needs it the most, before the other guys swipe away the momentum for good. Not often enough.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Sure the blame for tonight's loss must ultimately fall on the players. Coaches can scream all they want but if Chris and Al are throwing up clunkers - that's on them.
However, I do believe that a good coach recognizes shifts early and takes calculated risks in matchups in favor of better energy and defense and Dunleavy has consistently shown that he will not do that.
Bottom line?
Dunleavy is overly arrogant and stubborn. His in-game decisions seem to be based more on stats and paper matchups, when he should be more sensitive to the flow of the game and the shifts in momentum. His failure to do so has cost the Clippers many close games, and it will inevitably contribute to future losses against teams they should beat.
I firmly believe that the Clippers would have won tonight's game with a better coach. The Clippers had more talent and had a day's rest. The Pacers were wounded and short handed. They shot badly and gave the Clips every opportunity to kill any hope of victory in the first quarter.
Unless the players playing tonight had some unknown ailments or injuries, I believe this one's on the Chicken Man.
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Great piece Moki
and as someone who watched the whole game, I’d have to agree with most things you’ve said here.
There were other things that really annoyed me last night. Too many to mention all but one was the return of EJ.
Was he fit and ready to return? If so, why did he play so poorly? His attitude stunk last night and that is one of the only times I’ve ever said that about our star SG. It was like he didn’t want to be there. He had no energy, wasn’t efficient on the offense as usual and his passing and general team play was poor. You could see in his face he was unhappy so why did he stay on the floor for 27 minutes?
I’m sick to the back teeth with the “wait for a healthy roster and then judge Dunleavy then excuse”. Guess what, that healthy full roster might never come. You have to do the best with what you have and you have to have players who respect and want to play for the coach if you are going to have a good team chemisty, work ethic and ultimately successful team.
Our players look like they don’t want to play for Dunleavy. It appears from the outside that he certainly can’t motivate them as they were as flat as anything last night. The chemistry looks poor again. Not working hard for each other but in spells working hard as individuals. It wasn’t great D that was holding Indy back in the first half (although there were a few decent blocks by our guys) but the fact that they were shooting terribly.
However, terrible shooting wasn’t only limited to their team. We were horrible. How many bad looks can a team have in one game. It’s like they had decided how they were going to shoot the ball the minute they received it and it didn’t matter what else was transpiring on the court. Ball movement? Not on your nellie!
Kaman had taken over 14 shots in the first half and it hadn’t sunk into his ‘tarded head that they weren’t going to drop. So, what does he do, just keep shooting. He’s not Ray Allen or Reggie Miller that will shoot his way out. He’s Chris Kaman!!! The coach should have pulled him up after the first 7/8 and advised him to go another route. Try and post up more instead of taking terrible J’s. Try posting and dishing more to someone in a better position. Nope, it seems that no instructions come from the mighty Dunny.
Thornton is an ok player to have when everyone is fit. You have Kaman, Blake, EJ and Baron so you get a bonus when he goes off on a streaky scoring run but you might be able to cover it when he has nights like last night. However, not only was he unable to score, apart from a couple of blocks, his defensive assignments were lost more than me in a lingerie shop buying a pressie for my wife!
I agree with Moki that he was overconfident when he saw their lineup and his lack of decision making allowed the Pacers to stay in the game and then take the lead. You knew as soon as they got within a couple of points, we were losing this. It’s only however when things are too bad, gone too far in the swing of a game that he brings in Novak and Collins. What the hell are they going to do then. Get the cold players who have no minutes normally to come in and change it because you have let the team stink for the first 36 minutes.
Onto Blake. Can their have been much more pressure on a rookie in recent years (LBJ excepted) to come in and turn around such a stinking franchise. How is Dunny going to turn into a decent coach when his rookie returns? Is he going to suddenly remember when to use timeouts, when to capitalise on mismatches on the floor and to pay attention to the swing of the game? No, of course not. He’s going to hope that Blakes natural ability can mask his limitations and win some games for us.
This coach has got to go. If this club has any aspirations of taking this team into the playoffs over the next few years then he has got to go. Don’t believe me. Watch a replay of this game. You’ll change your mind soon enough.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
by ClippersUK on Nov 26, 2009 5:13 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Moki - great analysis
You pointed out and dissected some of MDSr’s biggest flaws and showed how they came to light in this game. I suspect that opposing coaches must lick their chops when playing the Clippers for the reasons you stated. These are the reasons why he’s sub .400 and will not likely be much better, even without injuries (some of the past years he didn’t have significant injuries). I find it funny that he’s always going to the injury excuse canard. Those in the know just shake their heads (and, perhaps, laugh).
THIS TEAM
these guys have no passion…they arent embarassed by their pathetic performances…they always have some lame excuse why they cant rebound….they give up to many second shots because they dont care about winning….they are beyond “getting a new coach”…i was a season ticket holder from 88 to 2000…watch every game and the one thing that never changes, everyone blames the coach and they never lay the blame where it belongs, on sorry “BUTT” players who really dont have the passion and desire to excell…they like their chjeck…they like being in los angeles…and they like the low expectations and HEY, WE CAN ALWAYS BLAME THE COACH FOR OUR PATHETIC PERFORMANCES.
No passion in last night's game
But they showed heart in the previous two games, no?
The coach cannot magically infuse passion into his players. But he can try changing things up, go deep into the bench to try and find a guy that will spark the team. Sometimes you see coaches kick and scream and purposely get themselves thrown out by the refs, just to get their team going. Dunleavy only gets himself thrown out, when he’s losing so badly he can’t bear watching the rest of the game.
As I said the players are ultimately accountable but better coaching should have saved last night’s game.
You are clearly not savvy
But I am with you. As know nothing fans we couldn’t possibly understand these things.
I agree with you 100%. When guys don’t have it going, the coach has to make adjustments.
He can use the excuse that he doesn’t have all his players, but what team really does all the time. Most likely Blake will come back, and somebody else will go down for some period of time, whether its a week or a month. If ever a change is needed it is now. He has lost this team. I’m ready for the aforementioned “dead coach bounce”.
Here here
EJ & Kaman played too much, maybe even Thornton as well. They just didn’t have it, but as a caller from clipper talk said last night, Dunleavy plays favorites.
Arrogance?
Instead of being humble during the game and recognizing that this game was in danger, in enough danger to try and mix things up – Dunleavy was overconfident. He figured his guys were in a little slump and that they would click into gear and eventually pull away.
I don’t see how that’s arrogant. You could argue its stupid, but watching the game, I basically thought the same thing. They weren’t taking bad shots, they were just missing them. I definitely didn’t sit here thinking, “get Mardy Collins in ASAP.”
I know you wrote a long post talking about how great Collins was (in one game) but the guy is a borderline basketball player. He’s a replacement level player (career PER of 8.4!), who would probably be off the Clippers if he wasn’t under contract for another year. He’s Fred Jones. Fine, you want Dunleavy fired (you aren’t alone in that) but using the logic that he failed to get Mardy Collins involved in the game is laughable.
I think you are jumping to conclusions
I did not once say I want him fired. If he were to change his strategy a bit I think he could be more successful.
Also as to your first point, I understand how you might not see why I see arrogance in his decision making, but I think your suggestion is worse…
You could argue its stupid, but watching the game, I basically thought the same thing. They weren’t taking bad shots, they were just missing them.
I guess maybe you’re being sarcastic? Because I understand that as a fan that I don’t know all the ins and outs of coaching so it would be arrogant of me to say his reluctance to take guys out is “stupid”. As you point out, they weren’t taking bad shots – they were just missing them. Some nights, you leave them in hoping they will get their touch back.
But my argument is that on a night like last night – playing on the road, against a “wounded animal” opponent (the most dangerous kind) and with EJ clearly not 100% yet, maybe you should try something drastic early to kill your opponent and not let them hang around. Dunleavy did not do that last night. Just analysis.
Finally, I understand that you weren’t thinking “get Mardy Collins in ASAP.” But I didn’t write anything about how Dunleavy’s failure to “get Mardy involved” was flawed. I clearly say that Dunleavy DID INDEED give Mardy a chance. My point was that he didn’t try using him until the middle of the fourth, when they had already lost momentum.
And it’s fine that you think Mardy is a borderline player. My point on Mardy – most coaches, when a guy plays well in one game (exactly as you state ONE GAME) – it USUALLY earns them minutes in the next. In Dunleavy’s case he gave Mardy about 5 minutes at the end of the game. If it was Novak or anyone else that was good & instrumental in the last game, I would have brought him up to make my case.
You know mwhite06, ever since my “Blake Superior” faux pas – it seems like you don’t like what I have to write. As you say, you think the logic behind my points are “laughable”. If that’s the case, why not simply refuse to read what I post? I’m sure Steve hates my guts for protesting his making Superior official, but he has never once left comments on any of my posts, misquoting what I write.
I don’t have anything against you. So if you’re going to join in the discussion on what I post all I ask is that you read what I write more carefully before attacking it. Or just be like Steve and simply choose to not read or comment on my “laughable” logic.
Thanks.
The inclusion of Mardy Collins at such a late
stage bothered me as we had watched Dahntey Jones go from having 1pt at HT (with 0 field goals hit) to becoming LeBron like in his ability to score passed the Clippers D in the 3rd quarter.
However, instead of spotting this early, like a good coach would do, and either rotate his defensive assignments or bring on a bench player to throw a different defender on him, Dunny just let Jones continue to abuse our D. That is right Dahntey friggin Jones abusing our D. That is how bad it got.
Mardy is no world beater but gives 100% on the floor which was more than some last night. As it was, it didn’t make the world of difference as, like Moki writes, the game was shot by the time he came on the floor but Moki’s underlying point is an excellent one. It’s the fact that Dunny doesn’t react to the ebbs and flows of the game at critical times but normally when it’s too late. This is where the arogance or stubborness comes in. He’s not a stupid man by any stretch so he sticks to his game plan, hoping that things will turn around. By the time he admits that it’s not going to turn around, we are normally chasing the game with little chance of the bench players to be able to turn it against the tide.
I get fed up with me writing this but I cannot believe after all this time he is still employed here as a coach. His coaching methods clearly don’t work anymore and the players don’t look motivated to play for him. Mr Sterling, how bad does this need to get before you make that decision. When Blake is back, how many games are you going to give him before you judge his performance because, I’ve got news for you. By the time you judge him in January (most probably), the playoffs will be long gone.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
You've said in a very coherent way things I just grumble about. Thanks. Dunleavy
is absolutely a horrible coach. No more excuses, no more defenses, it’s time for him to go. And he should have been fired last year. I still can’t believe 19 wins and he stays, but I guess that’s just me.
To borrow my line from a previous post: Dunleavy couldn’t motivate a hungry kid to pick up a sandwich.
Where are his defenders? Them seem to be quiet lately.
So true moKi..
Awsome piece… Im coming from Australia to watch 5 clipper games at the end of the season… I pray every day Dunleavy is not coaching in April…
I agree with many of your thoughts but don’t feel games are won by “in-game” coaches.
Coaches have to prepare their players before the game.
The problem with Dunleavy is that the players don’t believe in his uninspired system. They don’t feel they can succeed with it and thus merely go through the motions – either consciously or subconsciously.
Surely games can be won and lost by coaching decisions
made within the game itself. Often using the bench at the right time or changing defensive assignments or calling good plays at good times and the timing of timouts themselves.
These are all part of a good coach and can all definately effect the end result of tight games.
I appreciate what you are saying that the majority of work is put in, in practice maybe and the coach cannot directly affect players hitting or missing shots on the floor but he can do something about who he puts on the floor and the instructions they are given.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
That is very true and very clear
That was definitely BD’s attitude last year and it comes shining through when you watch them play. If you are arguing that he should stay, you are arguing for more of the same.
I agree
but let’s not forget that some of our players just couldn’t make shots… that’s gotta factor in, too. even phil jackson needs Kobe and MJ to win.
Angels 2009 WS Champs
Your analysis is right on the money
Their bench beat up on our regulars. Dunleavy doesn’t recognize when some one is having
a bad night sit him down. Kaman and Thorton had no business being in that fourth quarter.
Bring in Novak, Davis and Skinner. We have so much depth that we can do this. Dunleavy
is so stubborn that sometimes he doesn’t react in time. Prime example two games ago
with Baron he sat him down and Bassy came in and lead the way.
Seriously guys the simple fact is Dunleavy has been with the team for 7 years and he has a terrible record. Other teams fire coaches for a lot less. There shouldn’t be articles, paragraphs, essays written on why we should keep him. Quite frankly if you do think the Clippers should keep him you are probably a Laker fan or just plain have no idea. By the way I am not saying switching coaches will fix everything but I think it needs to be done to get on the right track.
As long as Dunleavy
is there heading the coaching staff, MANY WINNABLE GAME WILL BE LOST.
This game is not the only game where his decision making was questionalbe.
Remember the Sun’s, Timberwolves, etc., etc.. games?
When you have healthy good players like what the Clippers have, you don’t lose to undermanned so so healthy players left on the other team. You demolish them!
This team should have been in the win collumn more if not for MDR’s weaknesses in the END GAME.
Unfortunately, the team is not used to being guided to win. They panicked when the game is on line because of lack of leadership.
Kaman or Thorton should not be your go to guys when the game matters.
They do not know what to do with the ball when things go wrong
It is BARON who should have the ball !!!!
Figure out how you can position Kaman or Thorton at the end only and I SAY ONLY to be the
second and third option ALL THE TIME IN the last three or two minutes of the game.
BARON is the key!!!
BARON is the key!!!
Use the key and many doors will open for wins!!!!
And don't forget...
The Cavs game last year. Remember that one? We were up 30pts in the 4th when Dunleavy cast his sleeping spell on his team and the Cavs surged back to win it. I was at that game, fed up with Dunleavy (been a season ticket holder since 2007 and Dumbleavy has robbed me of thousands of dollars) and joining the FIRE DUNLEAVY guys. People were telling the guys to shut up and they just smiled and said “wait.” Sure enough, when it came down to closing out the game and making ingame adjustments that Greg popovich, PJ or Jerry Sloan would make, Dunleavy did the opposite. He went with cold bench players and repeatedly called the same ISO post play he loves. And LeBron, sensing weakness and momentum shift, took over. Now I know LBJ is an amazing talent but a good coach should be able to hold a 30 point lead in the 4th even if they’re playing the Dream Team.
Just another feather in MDsr’s Dunce Cap….
"I want someone who will, you know, let me put it in or who [will] suck on it." – Donald Sterling
The dream team?
With their perfect defense and lack of Kobe Bryant-ness, I think they’d take a 60-0 run in just the first quarter mannn!
Dream team with MJ, not the redemption team with Kobe..
I totally agree with one statement:
“As long as Mike Dunleavy is the head coach, MANY WINNABLE GAMES WILL BE LOST.”
That basically sums it up for me.
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