Let's Talk: How many wins is Blake Griffin really going to add?

by Newtybar on Dec 17, 2009 9:30 AM PST Comment 22 comments

It's hard to say without ever seeing him play a "real" NBA game, but with the play of everyone in the starting lineup, where will Blake Griffin fit in? How much is he going to add to each game and how many wins will the Clippers get as a result?

Marcus Camby is beasting it right now, will the addition of Griffin matter as much as we think?

Here's my take, I think Griffin can pretty much kiss ROY goodbye. His role is going to be in the second unit or possibly starting against teams with "stretch" fours. Camby is just playing too well to be taken out of the game. BG isn't as long and won't be able to provide the shot bothering defensive presence that Camby brings (although you could argue that it seems BG has high BBIQ and a solid body so he could be a good defender in different ways a-la Shane).

This doesn't mean he won't be a pivotal part of the team. Energy and a scoring threat off the bench, good glue guy, strong explosive talent. No one in the second unit should be able to stop him. Reliable backup who will give Kaman and Camby plenty of rest.

You could also play him as a 3, but at this point I really doubt he can shoot any better than either AT or Sual.

All in all I think he will add 5 or 6 wins.

0 recs | Comment 22 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Do you mean this year?

Or going forward?

For this year he is replacing the minutes from Smith/Skinner, which will be a very nice improvement, but small given that his minutes are capped for the season by injury.

In the future, if he is 5-6 wins better than Camby, he will be an all time player.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 17, 2009 9:54 AM PST reply actions

This year...

I was thinking, will BG help us get into the playoffs?

by Newtybar on Dec 17, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions

If the Clippers get to the playoffs, Griffin will have helped.

He is going to be in line to play in 40 games, maybe. If he averages 25 mpg by taking the bulk of the Kaman/Camby rest/foul trouble minutes, meaning those guys stay generally healthy, and he is able to be an average player right off in his rookie season (doesn’t often happen and he is coming back from injury), thats going to be about 1000 minutes at .100 wp48 = about 2 wins over a terrible player. That is to say, probably not a large upgrade over Smith who has been a just slightly below average player for his career.

Silver linings? The hopes for Griffin are higher than he will become an average player and he may be even as a rookie. He will also be a nice piece to have in place if one of the starting bigs go down for an extended period by soaking minutes and giving us less Skinner.

That way Skinner can concentrate on eating people and intimidating fools from the bench.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 17, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions

If we're thinking playoffs

we should be limiting camby’s min a lot for the post season. Monster game from marcus or not he needs his rest if he’s gonna be a factor come may.

by STUCK IN LA on Dec 17, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions

This is true

But the balance is very, very fine. Don’t play him enough = miss the playoffs. Play him too much = he might wear down.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 17, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions

I'll err on the side of the latter

Just making the playoffs would be huge for this team.

by madglove on Dec 17, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions

The pedal to the metal option does seem supreme for now

And if you succeed it wearing him down, push him just a bit farther out on the trading block.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 17, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions

All time player?

Not really.

Maybe I am taking you too literally, but in 2008 Marcus Camby’s “win shares” was 5.2. So to be a 5 win improvement over Camby would be a 10.2 WS. The all time leader in win shares is Kareem Abdul Jabaar at 25.37 in 1971-72. Dennis Rodman’s 12.59 in 91-92 is good for 250th all time in the NBA (the list doesn’t go any farther.) 10.2 WS is solidly above average, but far from all time player.

by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions

Depends on whose win shares we are using.

He said wins though. Camby has typically produced 20 wins per year, so 5 more from Giffin would put him at 25.

You are well on your way to 50 wins then.

This is not a prediction however, just a clarification. It is what the Clippers need to replace the lost production of Randolph and eventually Camby though.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 17, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions

Ya

I was just about to make a clarifying point as well. Win Shares are a tricky stat, because (as you know) it functions like a counting stat, which while important makes it difficult to isolate the variables. I used Camby’s 2008 WS because that seemed to be the best way to compare apples and apples. Both play for the Clippers, both played alongside a good post scorer in Kaman and Randolph.

Though, if I wanted to “cherry-pick” the stats more, If Griffin is 5 wins greater (according to WS) than Camby’s 2000-01 season where he posted a WS of 10.3, then Griffin would be recording an all-time season.

by Michael White on Dec 17, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions

He'll help

us match up with better teams. Kaman & Camby will get more rest, and we wont need to field Smith/Jordan/Skinner much.

I think the team will truly believe they can beat anyone with him in full health like this pre-season. How many wins that would equate to is hard to say.

by ghost_ride on Dec 17, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions

Matchups

I think Griffin will help most on defense against teams like the Magic who have stretch fours and require the PF to help on the center but still get back to his man to contest a long ball. As much as I love Camby (and I really do) he has a very hard time guarding any PF or C that likes to shoot long balls, I think Griffin will have an easier time guarding the stretch PF because he is much quicker and athletic so he can get back on his guy quick enough to stop an open shot.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Dec 17, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions

Take a team turning good and add a super-energy big

I can’t wait to see it. CAN’T WAIT. We’re already 3rd in block shots, for instance. Can you imagine what our defense will look like, with Kaman/Camby getting real rest at no cost to the team?

If Butler stays normal now, then suddenly I don’t see any real weaknesses.

by SilverClip on Dec 17, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions

Good questions

Nice to have a solid statistical thread and question.

I’ll leave the actual win shares alone, for those who like that stuff, but what I’m curious about is where the Clips are with Kaman/Camby, as opposed to what we expected, and then considering what Griffin will add as he replaces Smith.

I think that Kaman and Camby have exceeded expectations. Certainly Kaman has, with his phenomenal start. After a dip and some poor shooting, it looks as if he’s stabilizing. And he’s doing so at a much higher level than we would have guessed, even optimistically. The weak point of any Kaman preseason expectation might be rebounding, but that happens to be the area where Camby is probably a tick above our expectation.

With Camby especially, it’s important to remember that we expected his numbers to be impacted by Griffin. Was Camby really going to get 15+ rebounds on multiple occasions on a team where he would be sharing minutes with Kaman and Griffin?

In essence, I think we were projecting more modest totals from Kaman/Camby because of Griffin’s impact. Now, because of Griffin’s absence, Kaman and Camby seem firmly established and their production is consistent and relatively predictable. The fact is that they’re playing great, and it’s quite reasonable to expect them to continue to play well when Griffin joins them.

One result of this twist, and Griffin’s injury, is that our expectations for him have been significantly lowered. At this point we’re just hoping that he can actually make it to the floor. We’re losing sight, to a certain degree, of how effective and energetic he was during summer league and preseason. He’s relentless and unselfish and makes other players better. He’s a force. He will be a fearsome presence coming off the bench. He has gone from being a shoe-in for rookie of the year, to the point where we’re hoping that he provides some good energy and defense coming off the bench.

The truth is that the Clips will be in really good shape because of the way that Kaman and Camby have stepped up and flourished in his absence. Griffin will be able to meet quite easily the modest expectations we have for him at this point, and could blast right through them. As far as matching numbers goes, before we were looking for him to be a 20-10 starter, but now it’s more like 10+ pts/7 rebounds coming off the bench. And we’ve seen that Griffin builds up numbers like that through sheer hustle and court presence. He’s just not a guy who plays empty minutes—in fact, he’s the exact opposite of that.

It has been a surprising sequence of events, and despite some poor play and our usual share of frustrating and desperate moments, the direction forward seems extremely positive and promising.

by citizen zhiv on Dec 17, 2009 11:20 AM PST reply actions

Here's a better question

when will Blake really start playing?

Clippers 09-10. Prepare for a revolution.

by iankobe on Dec 17, 2009 1:29 PM PST reply actions

2010-11 Season?

Everything starts out New, Gets Old and Dies or is Destroyed.

by HVYDRT007 on Dec 17, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions

January 9th vs. the Lakers would be my guess

Someone else said that his rep said that they want BG’s first game to be against a big time team and there is no bigger game then when we play the Lakers. I would be happy with anything before Jan. 20th which is when I bought tickets specifically to be able to see Griffin play.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Dec 17, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions