Bill Simmons - NBA Trades

Quick snippet from BS on moves the Clips should make.

L.A. Clippers (group A)

2009-10 payroll: $59.7 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $39.0 million

• VP's Take: A frontcourt logjam looming with Blake Griffin coming back soon. Can't mess with his minutes. He's a stud. That means trading Chris Kaman (near impossible) or getting something for Marcus Camby (expiring this summer) while he's healthy. And if they save money, that's a bonus. Remember, they're owned by the cheapest man alive.

• Mitigating Factor: Mike Dunleavy doesn't see it that way, explaining their decision to keep Camby like this: "When you have a stock that's going up, you don't want to sell it. When it's going down, nobody wants to buy it. So we just want to freeze, do nothing and continue to suck the soul from our fans." Fine, I made the last sentence up. He said the other two, though.

• VP's Verdict: Camby's stock WILL go down. Time to sell. Right now. Today. We even have the perfect suitor: the Trail Blazers, who tragically lost both of their centers in a four-week span. What about …

Fake Trade 5: Camby to Portland for the Outlaw/Blake ECs and the rights to Victor Claver (Portland's 2009 No. 1, currently stashed in Europe). Pretty good haul for the dirt-cheap Clips -- they end up with a $4.5 million profit swing and a highly regarded European for someone who was leaving anyway.

(Important note: If the Clips had a real owner, they'd be shopping Kaman and offering the rights to Minnesota's 2011 pick to get it done, just to clear cap space for LeBron and another big-ticket free agent this summer. Sadly, Donald Sterling's skills lie in housing discrimination, not owning a basketball team. Too bad.)

about 2 years ago ClipperChuck 25 comments 0 recs |

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LOL.. Too true!

"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.

by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Dec 24, 2009 9:56 AM PST reply actions

I like Simmons

But his “real owner” trade is flat out stupid. Yes, let’s trade a top 10 starting center AND a potential #1overall pick for the HOPE of signing Lebron James.

I’d do that trade in a heartbeat if it was actually for Lebron. Or even Wade. But just the chance to try to bid for them? That’s just stupid. Especially when we’re close enough under the cap and guys like Thornton and Bassy can be traded to free up more space.

I do like Outlaw though.

by madglove on Dec 24, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions

Yea I don't like the trade either

I wouldn’t be opposed to moving Kaman to the Blazers for Outlaw, Blake and a prospect like Bayless however. I wouldn’t include the Minnesota pick as it looks likely it will be a top 5 pick right now.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions

If the Clips had a real owner, they’d be shopping Kaman and offering the rights to Minnesota’s 2011 pick to get it done, just to clear cap space for LeBron and another big-ticket free agent this summer

And that’s why you’d be a terrible owner Mr. Simmons. Seriously has does this crap even make it onto a website or paper. That’s a ludicrous proposition. Even if we did land LeBron we still have no center. I guess his next idea would be to sign Shaq to a 1 year deal. Chris is playing amazing ball and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to stay on the path he’s on (baring any injury). And that silly Minny pick could easily be top 10 and maybe even a #1. You don’t touch that pick, not with the Wolves playing like they are.

by dulciusEXasperis on Dec 24, 2009 11:01 AM PST reply actions

I'd have to double check

but if we moved Chris for expiring contracts I believe we’d have enough to sign Lebron and also give Camby a mid level type deal.

SG – EJ
PG – Baron
C – Camby
PF – Blake
SF – LBJ
Bench – Telfair, Thornton, 1st Round pick, bunch of old vets wanting to play with LBJ for a chance at a ring.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

I'm starting to agree

I thought that by renouncing Mardy we could bring our payroll down near $36 million, but I just did the math and found that the $39 million figure assumes that we’ve already let Mardy go.

So to have a chance at James (or one of the other top guys), we need to (1) get rid of Kaman, or (2) get rid of both AT and Telfair. I don’t see any other team-sustaining way, and of the two choices, trading Kaman is probably the easiest and most realistic.

With Kaman gone, our payroll would momentarily plunge to below $28 million. Assuming that the cap is put at $51 million, a max contract would be $15.3 million, bringing us back up to $43 million. A mid level for Camby gets us up above $48 million, leaving us probably less than $3 million to play with if we want to get a non-expiring back-up center in our trade for Kaman (along with other expirings).

One pivotal question, it seems to me, is whether a capped out payroll (like the one I’m painting here) prohibits us from signing our new draft pick(s). Could somebody please answer this? Once Kaman’s gone, we’re ever-more likely to be in the lottery, so it the answer here could make a huge difference.

by SilverClip on Dec 24, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions

I believe there is a cap hold

also, because we are below the cap we no longer have a MLE. Of course its moot because we’ve never used a MLE in our history as we have probably the cheapest owner in professional sports.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

Cap hold

for the 1st round pick that is. If its a late lotto pick we can always sell it or trade it for future draft picks.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for the info

I keep overlooking the bit about no longer having the MLE. I take it we’d just have cap space, then, to offer Camby whatever we could negotiate.

I want to make sure I correctly understand what a cap hold is. In order to sign James, I think we’d have to renounce all cap holds in order to clear the cap space. This entails that we wouldn’t be able to sign our pick, unless we still happen to have cap space available.

by SilverClip on Dec 24, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions

Yea

Well the salary for the pick is already determined (which is why NBA rookies rarely if ever hold out unlike the NFL and MLB). The draft takes place about a week before FA even opens so teams can always figure out ways to cut cost then (or maybe draft a overseas player to keep abroad for a few years).

We would have to renounce our FA, the way it appears is we will likely have huge turnover this year (only BG, Kaman, Baron, EJ, Thornton and DJ are under contract, Telfair has a player option which I think he’ll exercise). I’m not sure if DJ’s contract is fully guaranteed so he could even be cut (like Mike Taylor was) which seemed ridiculous over the summer but given his recent play its no longer far-fetched.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions

tim thomas was an mle deal

by cantthinkofagoodname on Dec 24, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions

That could be true

I can’t remember for sure but that sounds plausible. That would be the only time it would make sense to use the MLE coming off our best season ever.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

Kaman should be a Clipper for life!

I am in favor of any trade that will send Bassy to another team.

Everything starts out New, Gets Old and Dies or is Destroyed.

by HVYDRT007 on Dec 24, 2009 11:33 AM PST reply actions

Another trade idea

Kaman, Telfair, and Thornton for Oden, Outlaw and Blake

Portland would be getting their coveted center and wing help. We’d gain about $7.5 million in cap space, plus next year we’d still have Camby and Oden at center.

The money comes out very close to even. I haven’t checked it on trade machine, but it looks legit.

by SilverClip on Dec 24, 2009 3:14 PM PST reply actions

We'd have to offer more I think

Kaman has a expensive contract that is about right for his productivity while Oden is on his rookie deal still, which means he’s a bargain assuming he’s healthy (big if so far). I guess the Blazers could/would consider it if we added either the Minnesota pick or our own draft pick. I’d love to have Oden on our team BUT do you think with our luck we should be adding the most injury prone player since Pervis Ellison?

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions

If the goal is to get Lebron,

Camby &Thornton for Blake,Outlaw and either Fernandez or Batum

by MTM22 on Dec 24, 2009 3:29 PM PST reply actions

That still wouldn't give us enough cap space

if my math is correct. W/o AT, our pay roll would be down to about $37 million, leaving less than $15 million to offer James.

by SilverClip on Dec 24, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions

Yep

AT is owed 2.8 mill next year, Rudy 1.6 and Batum 1.1. Net savings would only be 1.5 million or so. If we want to clear cap space for LBJ we need to either trade Kaman or Baron or both Telfair and AT.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions

Speaking of which

Moving Telfair and AT for say Alston or Battie’s EC would work. Only problem is I’m not sure if the Nets want to eat into their own cap space (they have enough for 2 max players) but they get 2 decent young players for free, one of them a local kid with a following (Telfair).

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions

Blazers lost another Center

Przybilla is out for the year now. It would appear that this would be the optimal time for the Clippers to trade Kaman or Camby. If it could be held off for a few weeks while we wait for BG it could work out nicely for us.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 24, 2009 7:38 PM PST reply actions

I heard about that

Incredible. I mean, that’s really hard to believe. You’re right that it’s a Blazin’ opportunity. (Ha ha… err, pun kind of intended). You suppose they’d be interested in my Kaman et al for Odom et al trade at this point?

by SilverClip on Dec 24, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions

Dunno about Oden

I’m sure they wouldn’t mind trading for Camby or Kaman (I think Kaman and Aldridge would be a good duo). Personally I would like to see if we get Rudy, Outlaw and Blake for Camby and Telfair (maybe even throw in DJ). That would clear another 2.5 million off our books next year. We’d then have 13 mill+ to go after JJ or go for broke and move AT as well to give the max offer to LBJ.

My guess is the Blazers will try to trade Andre Miller first for some front court help. Obviously we wouldn’t be interested in him.

If this trade was made here’s our possible new lineup.

SG – EJ
PG – Baron
C – Kaman
PF – BG
SF – Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay

Bench – AT, Rudy Fernandez, bunch of minimum contract type guys, 1st round pick

We’d have a good starting five, two terrific bench players able to play multiple positions, a late lottery pick that could play some spot minutes and we fill out the roster with cheap vets like the Magic, Celtics and Cavs do.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 25, 2009 12:20 AM PST up reply actions

I like it

I don’t love it, but how often does a Gasol-like trade come around?

Outlaw is supposed to return to action in January. So I’m thinking we could also throw AT into the deal. The Blazers appear to have the cap space for the extra $2 million he’s owed (their payroll is $56.7 million), and at this point I suspect they feel short of men and would prefer not to lose another body (your 2 for 3 trade).

I’m a little at a loss over whether including AT makes the deal more or less attractive to the Blazers. Everyone’s hyping up cap space, but the Blazers are in dire straits. I also have very little idea whether JJ is a more realistic target than LBJ. My hunch is that the Hawks are more attractive than the Cavs right now.

by SilverClip on Dec 25, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions