Clippers vs. Orlando - Game Preview
by Steve Perrin on Dec 8, 2009 1:00 AM PST
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2009/2010 NBA Regular Season
vs
9-11 16-4
Staples Center
December 8th, 2009, 7:30 PM
Prime Ticket, 980 AM
Probable starters:
Baron Davis
PG
Jason Williams
Eric Gordon
SG
Vince Carter
Al Thornton
SF
Mickael Pietrus
Marcus Camby
PF
Rashard Lewis
Chris Kaman
C
Dwight Howard
The Back Story:
First meeting of the season. Orlando swept the season series last year two games to none.
The Big Picture:
The simple fact of the matter is that although the Clippers are a semi-respectable 9-11, they have played a very easy schedule to get to this point. Among LA's nine victims, only two have a winning record at present, and one of those is Oklahoma City at 10-9. That leaves Denver as the lone quality victory on the young season. Well, tonight the Clippers face the red-hot Orlando Magic, and a victory would be just as impressive as the Denver win, if not more so. Can the Clippers replicate whatever it was they did against the Nuggets? Not likely. Looking at that Nuggets game now, it looks like a total outlier. That is, unless you think Rasual Butler is going to score 27 points tonight. Or make a three pointer. In fact, Butler has not made a single three since that Nuggets contest, 18 days ago. At least Eric Gordon will be back for this one. EJ told Citizen ASoMS at a season ticket holder event this weekend that his hamstring was still sore but that he would definitely be playing tonight. The Clippers will have to play good defense against Orlando, a top five team in terms of offensive efficiency, and it would help if they would rebound like they did against Indiana. In that game, the Clippers outrebounded the Pacers 58-34 and grabbed a season-high 19 offensive rebounds. Of course, it won't matter much if they don't shoot better than the 35% they put up against the Pacers. The Magic present all kinds of matchup problems for teams, and this one looks like a nightmare for the Clippers. Baron Davis would seem to be the best matchup for LA.
The Antagonist:
The Magic have won 9 out of 10 games since getting Rashard Lewis back from suspension, and the one loss was a heart breaker at the buzzer. Surprisingly, most of those games came after they lost Jameer Nelson to a knee injury. The Magic lost Hedo Turkoglu over the summer from their Eastern Conference championship squad, but they added Vince Carter, who is currently the team's leading scorer at almost 20 points per game. But the star of the team remains Dwight Howard, who is third in the NBA in rebounding at 12.1 per game, leading the league in field goal percentage at almost 65%, and scoring over 18 points per game. With Carter in town, Howard is taking fewer shots per game than he has since he was a rookie - which account for the sky high shooting percentage. The Magic use a classic inside out attack. They surround Howard with shooters and take a lot of threes - a ridiculous 27 a game, second in the league to the more ridiculous Knicks. They also make a lot of them - 37%. This doesn't bode well for the Clippers, who were destroyed from the arc in their last loss, last week against Houston. Whether it's Carter, or Lewis, or Mikael Pietrus, or Ryan Anderson, or JJ Redick, or Jason Williams, the Magic almost always have four shooters on the floor, and they spread the floor and dare you to cover all of them.
The Subplots:
- Jason Williams, the almost former Clipper. Ten year NBA veteran Jason Williams signed a free agent contract with the Clippers in the summer of 2008. Then, just before the start of training camp, he decided to retire and walked away from his contract. Then, midway through his retirement, he decided he wanted to play after all, and asked that he be re-instated. A handful of teams, the Clippers among them, voted against mid-season re-instatement, and Williams had to wait until this summer to re-sign. He landed in Orlando, and with the injury to Jameer Nelson, he's the starting point guard (carrying an 8-1 record as the starter, no less). So how's that for a turnaround? Retired from the Clippers, to starting on the Eastern Conference Champs. I expect there will be some boos for Williams tonight. Still, with Williams coming to town, it gives me a chance to link the elbow pass again. I love the elbow pass.
- No Jameer, no problem. As I just said, the Magic are 8-1 since Jameer Nelson went out. Last season they went to the NBA Finals without him. How much better would they be with him? Of course, when the Clippers faced the Nelson-less Magic last season, Anthony Johnson made 6 of 8 threes and scored a season-high 25. So I guess we'd rather see Williams than Johnson tonight.
- Gordon. Gordon was only 3 for 10 against the Pacers, and after making his first three pointer, he missed every jump shot he took. Hopefully if that was rust, it's now gone, or perhaps it was just a bad game. The Clippers have little hope against the Magic if Gordon doesn't have a big game. Vince Carter was never a great defender, and now he's 32. Baron Davis against Jason Williams and Gordon against Carter really need to carry the offensive load tonight.
- Stretch fours. Rashad Lewis is the prototypical stretch four, a 6'10" 'power' forward who last season led the NBA in three point attempts and three pointers made, and who, since he arrived in Orlando, has taken about half of his shots from beyond the three point arc. And when Lewis sits down, the Magic bring in Ryan Anderson, a 6'10" 'power' forward who takes more threes per minute than Lewis, and is making a higher percentage this season as well. Marcus Camby is going to just love chasing these guys around the perimeter all night.
- Kaman. We've spent a lot of time discussing Kaman's struggles after his great start. If he can find a way to come up big against Dwight Howard, it would be a huge plus for the Clippers. You may be surprised to know that Kaman, despite his struggles, is still averaging more points per game (18.9) than Howard (18.1). Of course, Chris is taking 15.7 shots per game to get his points, while Howard takes only 9.5, so DHo has slight advantage in efficiency.
- Vince Carter, Clipper killer. Carter has had some huge games over the years against the Clippers, including a 41 pointer the last time he faced them. He has five career games over 30 versus LA, and another 5 over 25. I can also remember a couple of game winners. He almost had another game winner when he hit a three with 12 second left to give the Nets a lead last March. Instead Steve Novak's buzzer beater gave the Clippers their most exciting win of the season.
-
Movie Quote:
Crash Davis, Bull Durham (1988). This one seems appropriate, if only because I've compared Kaman to Nuke LaLoosh on a couple of occasions. And maybe Kaman needs some Annie magic to get him out of his slump.If you believe you're playing well because you're getting laid, or because you're not getting laid, or because you wear women's underwear, then you ARE! And you should know that! Come on, Annie, think of something clever to say, huh? Something full of magic, religion, bullsh!t. Come on, dazzle me.
- Get the Magic perspective at Third Quarter Collapse.
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Will there really be boo's to Jason Williams?
I really didn’t mind him not being a Clipper. Noone really even mentions him. But hey, Clipper nation plaese fill me in if LA actually does boo Jason Williams.
Btw, that elbow pass from Jason Williams is sick.
So anyways, if we can pull a victory underneath from these Magics, it is going to be more impressive to me than the Denver game. The Denver game was great alright, but we’re playing against a better center and a very impressive 3 point shooting team. Does anybody else remember that time when Houston went 12-23 at the 3 point line and we only went 1-14. That 3 point ball game can be the ultimate killer…
Personally I think we will be massacared
I think KA mentioned previously in his site that we were a pretty good 3 point defending team (until the Houston game). Hopefully the guys knows what’s up – MDsr probably has some idea of how to match with the Magic on the defensive end.
Not sure if Jason Williams will be booed, I suppose a few since he signed with us and then reneged on the deal to retire instead, to put it in another way. I don’t know myself, I just assume that he didn’t sign or play for us and is pretty neutral. Save for the elbow pass.
Well, here is some good news...
The Clippers are actually third best in the league, at .318, in opponent three point percentage. It sure doesn’t feel that way, with that Houston game still fresh in our memories. The Clippers also allow relatively few threes – fewer than 17 per game, which is ninth.
Three point stats are tricky, 20 games in. There are relatively few of them, and so the data can be skewed significantly by the opponents you’ve played and frankly whether they had a good night or a bad night shooting. Still, it’s not completely random and the data suggest that it’s not a weakness of the team but rather a strength. They’ll need it tonight.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
It's more the teams we've played...
Isn’t it? When the schedule starts to even out, our 3 pointers against numbers should come back down to earth, but hopefully that’s not the case.
That's a factor
I haven’t looked at that specifically but it certainly may be a factor. At first glance, it would not seem that the Clippers have avoided the best shooting teams. PHX, TOR, DEN, GSW, DAL, and NOH are all top ten, and the Clippers have played all of them. Then again, seven games against MIN, MEM and OKC, all in the bottom third, are helping.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Dec 8, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
Considering Rashard’s perimeter game, I think this might be a good idea.. I think Thorn has a better chance of keeping up with him than Camby does. Perhaps start…
Kaman
Thornton
Butler
Gordon
Baron
"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.
by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Dec 8, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
Then again, who's going to rebound?
"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.
by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Dec 8, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
Does that really make sense?
Thornton <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Rashard
Kaman <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< D Ho
I think we should do something else like start Camby and try to get some advantage.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Dec 8, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
I think we should just stick to our starters
If we had Blake, then maybe we are talking, but there is no need to swap positions. The better option is to double team the post (with proper rotations on their three point shooters), foul DH12 in the paint on any shot attempt, or go to a 2-3 zone.
Stick with the starters
Yeah, let Camby run around a bit and do his job. He’s more mobile than a lot of PFs, even if he doesn’t like to go out to the 3 pt line. But stick with the basics, and Camby has been doing a ton of damage lately.
There’s some flexibility in the lineup and rotation as things go along (it might be interesting to see some DHoward vs. DJordan minutes), but I would say stick with the starters, especially with Gordon back and playing at home.
Looks like MDSR's not doing that - surprising not
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Dec 8, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
Well, regardless who starts, we're still probably going to get lit up from 3...
So I guess it really makes no difference.
"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.
by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Dec 8, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
Novak
I would like to see Novak get some time tonight. Guarding 3-pt shooting forwards is within his defensive ability.
"You've got red on you"
Novak would be nice if...
Lewis didn’t have the ability to post him up or take him off the dribble. I have no idea why he didn’t play against the Pacers who had Troy Murphy who will try to break a guy down far less. Al Thornton at the 4 may have to be a option Camby just isn’t comfortable going out to guard a player. Best case I say we use Davis,Gordon,Collins, Thornton and Kaman to start off if they use Lewis at the 4. I also believe a player who may be a big help if he does what he is known for is Brian Skinner. If we can get Skinner to be physical with Howard it would be a big boost with this line-up I’d try Davis, Gordon, Thornton, Kaman, Skinner.
my thoughts exactly
This would definitely be one game were Dunleavy SHOULD adjust the match-ups and that’s by moving Al to the pf spot and I agree with Mardy starting at the sf here, against Pietrus. Tonight we use Camby as the back-up center(nothing wrong with that move). This could also be a good opportunity to give Novak some good minutes in and stretch out our offense and more so when Ryan Anderson is in, who I must say does a have bit of low post game that should not be totally disregarded. Doing these moves gives us a fighting chance.
by Takebb909 on Dec 8, 2009 8:16 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Novak
Right now CMDSr is having enough trouble trying to figure out what to do with the backup wings (RDavis, RButler, MCollins), and it doesn’t seem that he’s capable of finding any creative solutions about what to do with Novak. It’s too bad, because the Clips could have used another shooter on the floor, especially with Gordon out. But it’s probably much better that Thornton has changed his game and efficiency, and it’s more important for the Clippers to stay inside. Craig Smith has proved to be a reliable backup. DJordan seems to be settling in better as a backup, Camby is playing great, Kaman is drinking milk and might return quickly to top form, and the Clips are in pretty good shape up front—and all of that is before getting Griffin back. So it’s doubtful that Novak is going to see any minutes anytime soon.
I don’t think I would change the starting lineup, and Camby just needs to defend Lewis at the beginning of the game. But the idea of Collins as the first guy off the bench and leaving Thornton to play PF isn’t a bad one.
Gordon against VC should be fun.
Ha!
Kaman is drinking milk and might return quickly to top form
Yup, that needs to be the new ClipsNation tagline.
by Michael White on Dec 8, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting dilemma
The magic space the floor very well and have D Howard, a beast, on the block. Does MDSr try to match up with R. Lewis, Pietrus, VC, et al, with Thornton or or do they use Camby who should be able to have his way with Lewis inside and steal boards from Howard.
Kaman has been, ahem, underperforming in terms of boards. Thornton is not a good rebounder. One of the reasons why we’ve been doing so well defensively against the three is that D Howard has not been there to receive entry passes against us. I can’t see how we would take our best rebounder out of the starting lineup. I’d rather deal with the lower percentage of threes and keep Thornton at the three.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
This is one of those
I wish Blake Griffin existed type games. I would feel much more confident having an young athletic power forward available to chase Lewis around the 3 point line.
Clippers have to play much smarter defense tongiht then they did against Houston (obviously.)
good point
Getting eager to see BG out on the floor, even though it’s going to be another month.
I wish Tim Duncan existed
Unfortunately, he doesn’t
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
i thought we had a chance
until i saw it was Dwight Howards’ birthday.What a nice gift the NBA gave him, playing the clippers. lol
by cantthinkofagoodname on Dec 8, 2009 8:22 AM PST reply actions
LAT on Kaman's "illness"
The times today—recent reporter #3—says that Kaman has been feeling sick, or at least he has had low energy, which they have diagnosed as a Vitamin D deficiency. He’s been okay to show up for games and stay on the active roster and practice, but he’s been lying around and watching DVDs and hasn’t been sleeping well. So now they’ve apparently figured out that something is wrong with him and he’s drinking milk and taking other supplements, including melatonin to adjust his sleep patterns. Lots to analyze and discuss there, but the bottom line is that he hasn’t had the high energy level that he showed coming off his summer workouts, through training camp and the preseason, and in the first round of games. And it also seems to explain his rebounding woes, where he has often seemed a step slow.
This is probably good news, since it’s being treated, but it would be interesting to figure out what was causing this deficiency.
As soon as I saw the headline I thought “this should be good—wonder what has Kaman come up with this time.” And it’s still a bit of a mystery, but hopefully his energy will increase and we’ll see 3,0 back, though probably not at full strength in time to go against Dwight Howard.
Kaman
KA has a note on Kaman, and a breakdown of the rest of his game. He doesn’t mention the sleep issues and the melatonin, however. I’m not a melatonin guy, but it’s out there and people use it, and the Clips seem pretty sophisticated about this stuff.
Yes, the Clippers are very sophisticated
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
I expect they have
mis-diagnosed this illness and we will soon find out he’s done for the year.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Hope they're right...
But i’m always a little skeptical of a deficiency diagnosis.
Often, they aren’t a lot of times accurate.
Baron and EJ are the keys to this game
I would think in order for the Clippers to get this win BD and EJ will have to have 20+ point performances. Baron should be able to post up Jason Williams, and Eric Gordon should be able to dribble penetrate and run his defenders off screens for open jump shots. I feel the biggest miss-match is Camby vs. Lewis. Lewis can stretch the defense and put the ball on the floor. The Clippers might want to consider zoning up in a 2-3 zone. I doubt this happens, but it would work against the Magic. Force the ball outside in, rather than inside out. If the Clippers can limit isolation plays for Dwight Howard and win the rebounding edge, the clippers can keep this close and maybe get a win.
General analysis
It’s hard to imagine that the Clips will be firing on all cylinders and be able to compete against an elite team. They’re getting closer, getting EJ back and apparently figuring out what’s going on with Kaman, but they’re not quite there yet. They put it together against Denver, surprisingly, so you never know, but it’s doubtful that they’ll be able to defeat a great team that is playing well.
Baron and EJ are the keys, yes, but they seem to be separate situations.
EJ versus VC is a nice matchup. It’s just too bad that Gordon hasn’t played ten straight games at his own basic high level going in. Gordon is now a solid second-year man, and he prides himself on his defense. SP notes that VC has been a ClipKiller, but this is a new matchup.
The JWill situation is a strange one too. SP doesn’t speculate on what might have happened if JWill had showed up to play for the Clips last year. I can’t even think off the top of my head about the Clips backup PG situation last year, having mercifully blocked it out. Now I remember a nice, surprising Mardy Collins stretch in the midst of the death march. Wonder how JWill would have affected BDavis last year.
It’s good to have Telfair around.
Also noted that Livingston had 7 assists in 17 minutes last night.
by citizen zhiv on Dec 8, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
I would say
that the key is how they defend R Lewis/DHo. If MDSr decides to play Thornton at the 4 you can kiss the game goodbye.
And Livy didn’t score (against the Warriors)
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Another key, I believe
is whether Butler can hit some outside shots. Or if not him, maybe RDavis. If we’re interested in winning the game, that is.
Gortat
Also perhaps worth mentioning that the Magic have a little high-class problem with Gortat. The guy is a good player, but DHo is such a beast that he hardly plays at all. Kind of a thankless role Gortat has, as an elite team like Orlando really needs to have him there to sustain their play if Howard even gets minorly tweaked.
It’s funny to evaluate the “serviceable but solid” centers out there. Pryzbilla and Pachulia come immediately to mind. The question is whether guys like Bogut and Kaman are significantly better than them, and worth the extra money. And Gortat’s case is even more intriguing, because he has played so little that it’s hard to tell how good he is. Chances are, he’s better than the Big P’s.
Worth looking at too, as the Clipper roster evolves over time and DJordan’s role gets worked out.
The answer depends
on how good your forwards are.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Dec 8, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
the best part of the elbow pass
is that the recipient was Raef Lafrentz, the All Star.
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