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Baron Davis After 20 Games

I kept waiting for one of the stat guys to write a post about this, but it hasn't happened, so I'll pick up the mantle. 

I think it was after losing their opening games that Baron Davis said, "Ask me how I'm doing after 20 games not four," or something to that effect.  Well, the Clips have played twenty games now, so how is Baron doing?  Now, he may have been talking about the team as a whole and that's an easy review, they're 9 and 11, two games under .500.  They've played well at times, they seem to play better when Eric Gordon plays, and they've played poorly... a lot.  But they're on a pace for 36 wins this year, certainly better than last but not near the .500 level and not as good as any of us would like.  But how has Baron faired personally? 

Ignoring statistics for the moment, judging by the evidence of having simply watched the games, I've liked Baron's game this year.  He's laying off the pull-up-jumper and laying off the three-ball in general.  This is good.  He seems to be often attacking the basket and getting into the lane, using his considerable size and strength to overpower smaller guards.  He seems to be playing solid defense as well... playing excellent "man" defense on all but the quickest guards.  His ballhandling, clock-management, and general surety at the point guard spot have been exemplary.  He also seems to be the team leader we thought we were getting when he came here.  And, perhaps most importantly, he seems to better understand and be more willing to play within Mike Dunleavy's system.  This is, to my mind, a surprising and welcome improvement.  Gone are the surly looks, the displeased expressions (at least from my limited, tv-watching point of view).  Most importantly, Baron Davis seems to have regained his lost confidence.  He seems to better understand and better accept his role.  

Baron Davis is a complicated dude.  Last year, it was hard to figure out what exactly was wrong with him.  He reported out of shape, he played poorly, he jacked up awful shots and... he sulked.  His enthusiasm and his confidence had vanished and he didn't seem to understand what his coach wanted.  Disastrously both he and Mike Dunleavy showed their worst traits... they seem equally stubborn, equally sure that their way is the only way.  This year, someone's changed.  Is it Baron?  Or has Dun changed as well?  Has John Lucas helped secure a rapprochement between these two strong-willed men?

Physically, Baron's in far better shape than he was at anytime last year.  He looks quicker, stronger, faster.  He's gotten above the rim a number of times....

Finally, do the stats back up our eyeballs?  (I'll leave the advanced stats (plus-minus, PER) to someone else, mostly because I don't understand them, but also because I can't find them).  His points are up...  he's at 16.0 this, 14.9 last year (against 16.9 career).  His assists, I was surprised to find are down, 7.7 last year, 6.9 this.  His FG percentage is up a hair over 40 percent vs. .37 last year.  His 3pt shooting is actually down .302 to .330, though he's he's taken slightly less per game 4.9 per 36 minutes vs. 5.3 last year.  Steals are slightly up, 1.9 to 1.7 and rebounds slightly down, 3.6 to 3.7.  He's also played slightly fewer minutes this year, 33.3 to 34.6. 

Wow... I'm very surprised that the stats don't really reflect the change I see on the court... which makes me wonder... am I only seeing what I want to see, and is Baron Davis anywhere near his former all star level?  In order for the team to improve, does Baron have to further improve?  Why don't the stats better reflect Baron's better play?  More importantly, why doesn't the team's record better reflect that improvement? 

I have a theory about this.  It's simple.  Baron's better, a lot better, but the rest of the team is lacking.  Actually, they kinda suck.  Kaman's been better, but he's streaky and his rebounding's dropped off.  Lately, Camby's been awesome but Gordon's missed almost half the games. Butler's been a complete flop and Al  Thornton has only recently seemed to discover his way.  Blake Griffin, obviously hasn't played a minute.  The bench has been... okay.  Without a scoring, rebounding monster like Zach Randolph, the Clips have little sure offensive firepower.  So, here it is:  I believe, without Baron's improved play, the Clips wouldn't have anywhere near nine wins this year. And now, it's up to the other 14 guys to get better if this teams going anywhere this year... even if anywhere is only 40 wins.

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I agree

I like stats and all, but just to point out one obvious thing about the assist problem; as you said there is no sure fire scorer with Baron on the floor. Its easy to remember the passes that go right through DJ’s hands, but I’m wondering how good this Baron would be with another solid post scorer, or with EJ staying healthy all year.

I like Baron’s game now too. He came ready to play, and I do think a lot of the “success” is thanks to Baron.

But this is part of the problem. We are probably seeing the best of Baron now then we’ll ever see from him. He skills are going on the decline (just considering his age they have nowhere to go but down) and by moving Randolph the team made the decision to start building for the future. Guys like DJ getting reps and all are nice for the future, but it does very little to win now. Baron can only do so much really, and his skills are going to decline as guys like EJ and Griffin mature into (what we hope) are stars in the league.

by Michael White on Dec 8, 2009 10:24 AM PST reply actions  

As long as Baron's decline is slow,

as I think it will be, then things should be fine. Next year and the years after, I see Baron as a very good player on a very good team.

I’m encouraged that he seems to be playing smarter. That much is not in decline. In general, I know he’s always been a bright guy, though on the court he has sometimes been careless or impulsive. With age, maybe he’ll become a more athletic version of Battier.

by SilverClip on Dec 8, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

If only he'd hang out with Nash more...

How old is Nash anyway, declining much?

BD may be declining physically, but hopefully the closer he gets to a new contract the more we’ll see him putting effort into figuring out how to slow the physical decline through workouts and become even more effective in other ways.

by ghost_ride on Dec 8, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Hey Guys

He’s only 30! His decline due to age should not be noticable to anyone at this point. Any physical drop off is more than likely due to conditioning only. Just take a look at the stat leaders in the NBA and you will find at least two players over the age of 30 in the top 10 in each catagory:

Scoring: #2 Kobe Bryant (28.9), #6 Dirk Nowitzki (26.7)
3pt%: #5 Anthony Parker (50.7), #10 Jason Kidd (46.7)
Assists: #1 Steve Nash (11.1), #5 Jason Kidd (8.8)
Blocks: #2 Erick Dampier (2.31), #6 Tim Duncan (2.06)
Rebounds: #5 Marcus Camby (11.0), #8 Tim Duncan (10.8)
Steals: #3 Kobe Bryant (2.26), #7 Baron Davis (1.85)
Pts/Reb/Asts:Average: #6 Kobe Bryant (38.3), #8 Dirk Nowitzki (38.1)

So the Baron Davis of LAC can still become the Baron Davis of GSW – if he wants to.

"Excellence...is not an act, but a habit" Aristotle

by Cliptomaniac on Dec 8, 2009 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

On the decline issue

Good that you mention Nash, and we shouldn’t leave John Stockton out of the mix.

Baron did himself a big favor by working so hard to get back in shape. Now he has to keep working even harder (as Nash does), with total dedication, and at the same time refine his game to suit the natural decline of his athleticism.

He seems to be playing much smarter and he has improved his shot selection, but he can still do better there. He also has to shoot better, period, as that’s a big discrepancy in any comparison to Nash. He will still be able to get his shot up against rival PGs, and he just has to do a shooter’s workout. It would help a lot if he can improve his percentage even slightly on his basic perimeter shot, leaving the 3 pt line aside for the moment.

In some ways it’s probably better for him to look at the aging process of athletic guys like Michael Jordan and Kobe, as well as players like Nash, and develop into a sort of hybrid. You can see he’s working on this type of thing with his baseline stepback.

He’s taking some good steps, but to get to a Nash-like, best-case scenario for him, he’s going to have to keep working extremely hard and improve his shooting.

by citizen zhiv on Dec 8, 2009 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

By the way...

I like BD better than last year, but last year was really tough to take. He seemed to have a lot of juice right out of the gate, and I think losing that Phoenix game was a big hit to our leaders morale at the time, but obviously the better his weapons play I believe the more investment he’ll put in. Need a healthy Gordon, Thornton to continue what he’s doing, and hopefully that’ll be enough before Griffin gets back.

by ghost_ride on Dec 8, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions  

A couple things...

I think the statistical improvement is more significant than you imply. His shooting percentage is the big thing. It’s hard to express just how bad 37%. So 40.6% sound bad, but it’s a 10% more made shots for the guy. Also, you read the wrong year on three point shooting. He was 33% two seasons ago – 30.2% last season, 30% this season, so basically the same.

Meanwhile he’s getting to the line a lot more, and making a career high percentage of his free throws. Put it all together, and his True Shooting Percentage is up to ,517 – far above his .460 last season, above his career average of .503 and in the neighborhood of his 07-08 season of .523. It’s a huge improvement.

His assists are indeed a little down, but when I look at the two IND games for instance, with a grand total of 6 assists in the two games, I want to blame that on the shooters, not on Baron. I guess everyone loses assists from time to time, but it seems like Baron’s teammates have let him down a lot in that regard this season (which is a big part of your point).

His PER is up to 18.3 this season after dipping to 14.5 last season. That also, is a huge difference. 15 is considered an ‘average’ player. For comparison sake, his PER is 8th best among point guards – behind Paul, Nash, Billups, Rondo, Parker, Deron Williams and Tyreke Evans.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Dec 8, 2009 12:46 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

SP...

I really wanted YOU to write this post, but I didn’t know how to suggest it so I just kind of blundered through. You’re excellent with the stats, both picking out what’s important and interpreting the results. I think what you really should have done, was stolen my concept and redone the whole mess. Instead you promoted my humble post, warts and all, and made sense of it through your excellent comments, which I will now recommend… and we come full circle.
Now if the rest of the Clippers can pull their games up to Baron’s level, we might actually have something.

by swamigusto on Dec 8, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

His assists are probably down because

his team mates aren’t finishing on his amazing passes. Many times during the Pacers game Baron made some amazing moves that made the crowd gasp (well those that actually were watching the game) and made the pinpoint pass but his team mates didn’t finish. Baron’s assist number would be hire if his team mates could just finish.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Dec 8, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions  

Good Post

Don’t apologize for going for it, sg. You did an excellent job. We all prefer to draft off of SP’s hard work, but sometimes it must be nice for him to follow up after somebody else takes a shot. It’s hard to maintain the effort and enthusiasm when the team is struggling and up and down, so SP can use the help I’m sure. I know I’ve been bummed out and slacking off. A piece like this one is welcomed by all of us.

So let’s break it down a bit. I’m pretty sure that the quote was about the team and how they would be doing after 20 games, rather than just BD himself. But that was before the Griffin injury, and well before Gordon was out. So I don’t think that it really applies, except that of course 20 games is 20 games, so there’s no getting around it.

I like the theory that a big story behind BD’s totals and statistical, quantifiable performance is about his teammates. Basically, I think he worked hard and showed up in a good, productive, determined frame of mind, and his own play has been fairly stellar. It was a devastating blow to lose Griffin right before the opener, taking away the x factor that was supposed to elevate the team a number of levels above last year’s debacle. Losing Gordon shortly afterwards created a threat that the whole thing might go down the tubes again. The Clips responded fairly well to Gordon’s absence, with Thornton stepping up and Camby coming on strong. But Baron has led the way and he has been consistently good, far improved over last year. His leadership has been severely tested by the setbacks during these first twenty games, the first one occurring before the team was even out of the gate, and he has done well. The conflicts with Dunleavy from last year seem to be gone. BD seems to know that a certain type of play, and level of execution, is expected of him, and everything follows from that. And he’s done a good job on those counts. Not perfect, but he has been solid. And it’s more than enough that, with Gordon coming back, he’s shown now that he can handle his own role and the pressure and expectations that come with it.

If the “let’s see where we are after 20 games” was nullified by injuries, we can change that to two upcoming steps: let’s see where the Clips are by the time that Griffin comes back, and then let’s see what happens when he finally joins the lineup. Gordon is a key element. The team evolved quite a bit in his absence. It’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks, with him back, but the games getting tougher at the same time.

The one thing that I’d still like to see BD tighten up is the turnovers. Dunleavy mentioned in today’s LAT, I believe, that turnovers are the one thing that have been critical and debilitating in the Clippers’ mostly mediocre play over the first 20 games. And BD is directly involved with that. He has always been turnover-prone, I believe, but it was offset by his athleticism and explosiveness. Now, in his more “contained” mode, he is still turning the ball over on occasion with lazy, routine passes. These aren’t errors of risk and explosiveness, and if he can cut them out it will help the cause. The team overall will be improved if they can take care of the ball just a little bit better, and that starts with BD.

by citizen zhiv on Dec 8, 2009 5:17 PM PST reply actions  

One other thing

I really thought I had covered it, but I realized I forgot something.

On the teammate issue, it’s important to note, as others do, that instead of plus Griffin/minus Randolph, so far BDavis is playing with minus Griffin/minus Randolph (and some minus Gordon games too, of course). We lose track of how last year was plus Randolph/plus Camby/minus Kaman for the most part. We’ve been enjoying a nice stretch of plus Kaman/plus Camby, which is kind of fun, and we have DJordan too, but the team’s value and Baron’s contribution and role can’t be fully determined until all the weapons are out there. Not having Randolph, and losing Griffin, is a big deal.

The problem with all this is that the Clips squandered the soft spot of their schedule. Perhaps the swing isn’t too big, and 9-11 isn’t too far from a best case scenario of say, 15-5. But it gets harder and the season is going to be a long uphill climb now.

by citizen zhiv on Dec 8, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions  

One area BD is really excelling

Meaningless 3’s at the end of games…

That forced shot at the end of the 3rd quarter really irked me.

by ghost_ride on Dec 8, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions  

He's been pretty good all things considered

At the end of the last year he looked like a below average NBA player, He’ll never be a star again, and at his contract he should be, but at least he’s trying hard most nights and at least a high middle of the pack starting point guard.

by ragman on Dec 8, 2009 10:55 PM PST reply actions  

Baron is ranked 7th in assists among all NBA players

But he should be ranked higher than that. I was at the game last night against Orlando. And on serveral occasions Baron would penetrate through the defense, make a sweet dish and then the recipient of his excellent pass would blow an easy wide open shot. FRUSTRATING.

"Excellence...is not an act, but a habit" Aristotle

by Cliptomaniac on Dec 9, 2009 10:12 AM PST reply actions  

Baron Davis is a disease.He never won anything in his carear. He is self centered and out of tune with his teammates.Nelson loved that Donleavy got him out of his hair.You make an excuse that he was out of shape last year after taking down 60 million dollars. They had to bring in Lucas as his personal coach. Sterling you also are stupid to let this happen. Get rid of Kaman with Davis and use Griffin, Gordon with Camby as a nucleus to build a team.The savior Gordon will be 21 on Dec 25. Gordon’s father does not want Gordon to play for the Clippers and who blames him. Don Mclean is another one with his stupid opinions to get rid of.Donleavy clean house.

by Vegas Mike on Dec 12, 2009 5:37 PM PST reply actions  

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