Playoff Odds

Hollinger gives the Clippers a 10% chance of making the playoffs

about 2 years ago ClipperChuck 13 comments 0 recs |

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Nice

We have a .5% chance of winning the Championship. Blake Griffin will be the GOAT if he can accomplish that feat.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 8, 2009 12:58 PM PST reply actions

The Clips had a super easy November and still lost a good number of those games. We haven’t even faced that many top tier teams, with Denver being the only quality win out of 9 wins (as Steve pointed out in his preview).

After digging itself in this kind of hole, it’ll be quite a shock to make the playoffs.

by madglove on Dec 8, 2009 1:59 PM PST reply actions

I think that the majority of Clipper fans need to take a look around the league

Not every team in the NBA has the players like the Lakers and Celtics. The majority of teams in the NBA are at or below .500. The Clippers have had injuries, and injuries will hurt any team. I myself feel like the Clippers have played well so far this 09-10 season. Last year this team had 19 wins in 82 games. This year, they have 9 wins in 20 games. That is a drastic increase, with out #1 pick Blake Griffin, and shooting sensation Eric Gordon playing less than half of those games at full strength. This 09-10 Clipper team is not an elite NBA team, but they have every bit of talent, if not more talent than the teams that are in the middle of the pack this season.

by NBAFAN8 on Dec 8, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions

But

last year Baron was out of shape, Kaman missed most of the season and we didn’t add quality bench players like Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Dec 10, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

Seems about right

Playoff odds were what? 20-25% tops before the season started. Griffin hasn’t played yet.

If you told me the Clippers were about 10% to make the playoffs without having Griffin all season, I would have called you optimistic.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 8, 2009 3:29 PM PST reply actions

Was Griffin alone supposed to double our playoff chances?

I’m not sure about that. That’s quite a bit to expect from a rook isn’t it?

How do you come up with that 20%-25% estimate anyway? Seems hard to come up with that kind of number.

by madglove on Dec 8, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions

I think the absence of Blake means more than one might think

He is the motor of our “bigs” he can dunk the basketball, run the floor, block shots, get rebounds, keep plays alive, and energize the fans and team with these plays. He really is just as important as any 4 or 5 on this team. The second unit in the first 25 games this season is below average in scoring, rebounding, and defense. When Blake comes back, those numbers will all increase. As of right now, Camby is the motor, but he can’t continue to do it all year long. He also does not amke those WOW plays that get the team and the fans on their feet. Gordon has also been able to do this, but with him playing off and on due to injuries he has not been a constant for the team.

by NBAFAN8 on Dec 8, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions

How else would I come up with it? I made it up.

The normal ways one comes about their expectations I suppose. Evaluate team; evaluate opposition.

I don’t know about Griffin doubling our playoff chances, I haven’t seen him play in the NBA yet. The most optimistic read of the situation was that he would come in and be a team changing rookie ala Duncan. That potential player certainly doubles a team’s playoff chances. Maybe more. Hence 20-25% tops. So that team featuring an immediately great rookie has a decent chance of making the playoffs, even given the current revolving door as we wait for contracts to expire and Gordon to mature.

Instead he hasn’t played yet so you have last year’s team healthy, but without Zbo. Feels like 10% to make the playoffs. Need a lot of luck, and they haven’t even had that with Gordon in and out as well.

Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

by John R on Dec 8, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions

Knicks a 42% chance?

I mean, OK, it’s the eastern conference and all, but then you look at the Wizards, 3 games closer to .500 than New York, and they have just a 21% chance. I’m sure there’s a complicated explanation somewhere, but that just doesn’t feel right. Nor does having the Kings up near 16%… I can’t imagine them keeping up a .500 pace, carried by a rookie who’s still on his first round through the league.

Wasn’t the system devised by Hollinger? That should say enough.

by SilverClip on Dec 8, 2009 7:11 PM PST reply actions

Wasn’t the system devised by Hollinger? That should say enough.

Care to explain that position?

by Michael White on Dec 9, 2009 8:18 AM PST up reply actions

Brute, irrational dislike of the guy

Plus his conclusions regularly seem outlandish to me (such as odds I point out above). But most of all, his opinions of the Clippers are often exaggerated and overly critical. His recent power rankings have the Clippers way down, something like 27th. In other rankings I’ve seen the team falls in the low 20s. I’m holding a grudge.

by SilverClip on Dec 9, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions