L.A. Clippers: Don't laugh. As dysfunctional as they've seemed this season, the Clips could be a playoff team next season on talent alone. Baron Davis and Eric Gordon make for a solid backcourt, the frontcourt trio of Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby is potent (if they're ever healthy at the same time), and the Steve Novak Experience has to be seen to be believed (more on him in the Insider Gems).
As with Washington, the Clips will get an advantage from their awful season in the form of a high lottery pick who should give them a big boost a year from now. And if they stay in contention there's a greater probability players like Davis will work hard instead of lazily jogging after loose balls (like he did in the opening minute Wednesday night, while Washington's McGuire breezed past him, took the ball and cruised in for a dunk), and that the defense will consist of more than an arm wave.
John Hollinger's PER Diem: March 19, 2009 - ESPN
Hat tip to Citizen sqrebck (is that Squareback, as in the old VW?) for posting this. I'm thread-jacking it with a FanShot because I like the cool blue back ground breaking up the front page, and because it deserves to be talked about a little more.
It's certainly surprising having Hollinger predict mildly good things for the Clippers - he's been a naysayer about the team, even in the 06-07 pre-season coming off the playoff run. In fact, given that he predicted 20 wins for this edition of the Clippers before the injuries kicked in, it actually says a lot about what has happened this season. Frankly, I'm a tad stumped - you'd think he'd be sitting back saying "I told you so" and talking about the bright future in Memphis with Marc Gasol. So what gives?
Well, he must really like Eric Gordon, even though he's never really let on. And he must like Zach Randolph a lot too. Because those are the only two new elements on this team at the end of the season (with the third worst record in the league, remember) versus the beginning of the season (when they were tied for the best record in the NBA at 0-0). Oh, and he loves Steve Novak too.
He's also apparently more of a fan of actual in the locker room talent than he is of potential: three of his five picks are teams that he feels have a lot of talent now that are simply either hurt (Wizards) or underachieving (Raptors) or both (Clippers).
The last thing worth mentioning is his inclusion of the Timberwolves on the list. This is significant only because of the fact that the Clippers still own a top 10 protected first rounder from the Wolves. For awhile when the Wolves started January 10-2, it looked possible, if unlikely, that Minnesota might rise out of the bottom 10 this season. With Al Jefferson's injury, that's not going to happen. But if Hollinger is correct and Minny is ready to challenge next season, the Clippers could have an extra late lottery pick in the 2010 draft. Of course, the best case for the Clippers might be to wait all the way to 2012 for the protection to drop off and hope that the Wolves are still terrible then.
Finally, of course Hollinger makes no mention of Al Thornton being part of a bright(ish) Clipper future. Some things never change.
10 months ago
Steve Perrin
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he makes a point to talk about novak
i wonder what the contract offers are going to be like this summer? I would imagine that with these tough economic times and every team trying to get cap space for 2010 the clippers may have lucked out and actually have a shot at keeping him by matching the contract (assuming it’s reasonable). I’m interested to hear from the nation on how much he’s probably going to be offered, what kind of contract the clippers should match and what they should let him go for…
by cantthinkofagoodname on Mar 19, 2009 4:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i forgot to include my 2cents on my own question...
3yrs 9 million is probably what i expect to be offered, and i think the clips would match that. if someone were to offer the entire MLE for more than 3 years though I’m nut sure if the clips should match.
by cantthinkofagoodname on Mar 19, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is he an RFA
I thought he was a UFA. Novakian Management Associates is looking for Bobby Simmons money.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 19, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unrestricted
Clippers have his bird rights.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 19, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Clippers cant have his bird rights
b/c they havent had him for more than 3 years..
by C's Up on Mar 19, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he is an RFA
according to this
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10
by C's Up on Mar 19, 2009 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
embarrassing foot in mouth moment
ok so I have no idea… I read somewhere he was restricted… but shamsports, hoopshype both have him as unrestricted… and espn has him as restricted as well… so I have no idea.
by cantthinkofagoodname on Mar 19, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is Restricted (or rather will be)....
That was my bad. I fell into the ‘first round pick’ trap. Novak was a second year pick who signed a three year deal. But all free agents of less than three or fewer years in the league are restricted. There just happens to be a lot more structure around the restrictions on first round picks – like option years and qualifying offers. That’s where it gets confusing. For instance Hoops Hype and Shamsports list the QO on first rounders on their rookie contract, but they don’t for a second rounder like Novak. But essentially the same rules apply – if the Clippers give him a QO by June 30 (125% of the player’s previous salary, or the player’s minimum salary plus $175,000, whichever is greater according to the Salary Cap FAQ) then he becomes restricted.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 19, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's awesome
Qualifying offer here we come! And it should be interesting to see what the market is like out there for him.
Is he headed for Azubuike or Turiaf territory? What were those deals again?
by citizen zhiv on Mar 20, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bird rights are tradeable..
They got his bird rights when they got him from Houston.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 19, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup VW SquareBack, Love the projects, I guess that's why I follow the Clippers. They Always seem need a good tinkering.
by sqrebck on Mar 19, 2009 4:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Love the Squareback...
And the Karman Ghia.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 19, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
dumped the fuel injection and ran with dual carbs.
Love the Car, hated working on it all the time.
I became good friends with Bill at “Bill and Steve’s”
by sqrebck on Mar 19, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me, not a car guy...
Love the old vee dubs, but could never own one because of the hassle. Actually had a 67 Beetle for about a year… during which it actually ran about a month. Really, really cute though.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 19, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Props by Hollinger,
is the sky falling??
On another note, Blake is a beast
by Qlippers on Mar 19, 2009 8:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I´m starting to recognize Hollinger
since he has been correct in his predictions about the Clippers this year. Sadly.
by edu_argentina on Mar 20, 2009 7:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Very strange
I think we have to have at least a little bit of a hard time supporting Hollinger, after he happens to write something posititve for the first time and gives the Clips some props after hammering on the team for two years. Not ready to jump on the Hollinger bandwagon yet.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 20, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone really see Hollinger's prediction
coming through for this year? I still can’t wrap my mind around it.
I have a theory: Maybe everyone is in on it the NBA, ESPN, the players etc. Maybe this has been the plan all along: follow ESPN’s preseason predictions so they won’t look bad.
Hmmm… -.-
"This kid is the best new talent in the league right now, and I don't care who else you mention." -Suns Coach, Alvin Gentry, on Clippers rookie sensation, Eric Gordon.
by cliptakular on Mar 20, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
-through- true
"This kid is the best new talent in the league right now, and I don't care who else you mention." -Suns Coach, Alvin Gentry, on Clippers rookie sensation, Eric Gordon.
by cliptakular on Mar 20, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the undercurrent in Hollinger's prediction re the Clippers
is the coach and management situation here – I too thought the team would not do well
by Jax on Mar 20, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Because in his preseason predictions he thought:
-Gordon would be terrible
-Thornton would be terrible
And somehow he knew that they would:
-Trade precisely Thomas and Mobley for Randolph
-Use Taylor far more than Hart, eventually releasing him
-Work Novak into the rotation and he would be wildly successful
Since his prediction was either 100% wrong on many of those counts or based on things he couldn’t possibly and didn’t predict, his prediction was just luck.
Just like he was dead wrong about the 05-06 team. Which we now know had the same “coach and management situation” since Baylor has denounced all credit for anything since Dunleavy got here.
No, basically Hollinger just always predicts “its the Clippers”.
But hey, the dunk contest was fixed. If the league has no problem fixing that…
Get me BD and 75 and I'm in
by John R on Mar 20, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little fresh air
Exactly right. He was just lucky, but “it’s the Clippers” is still a pretty safe bet.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 20, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing
If someone had said, even just before the seaon, “the Clippers have a lot of talent but they seem rather injury prone, and Baron Davis and Dunleavy might take awhile to figure out how their divergent styles mesh. So the Clips could be sailing into the familiar stormy seas this year, but should come out of it with a solid roster that has built some chemistry and looks good for the future.”
Is that what Holliinger said?
by citizen zhiv on Mar 20, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's focus on the forest, not the trees
It was obvious to many of us that there were alot of issues. BD is injury prone. Camby is injury prone. The team had no go to scoring PF at the time, and Ricky Davis and Cuttino Mobley were the SFs. Elite players generally don’t want to play for the team. Who was the backup pg? Is Thornton really the savior? No – Corey for example is better. EJ is a rookie. BD and MDSr styles do not mesh. Kaman? That’s just a few of the problems going into the year.
At some point, guys, we need to fish or cut bait. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that this team with poor coaching and poor management is very likely to lose alot of games. John R’s monthly posts seeking to rationalize such issues while ripping prognosticators who have reasonable opinions are getting rather tiresome.
You cannot ignore coaching and management when you are predicting how well an NBA team will do. Worrying about the precise statements made by the talking heads doesn’t really do much. Forest for the Trees.
Instead of spending so much time worrying about what others say about why we are losing every year, I would suggest that we do something to fix the underlying problems. On this site, we can at least come to a consensus that it is time to move on from MDSr. That is, if you really want to have a winning franchise. Then they’ll say nice things about us. Imagine that.
“the dunk contest was fixed” – LOL sure
by Jax on Mar 20, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing...
You seem to think we have some power in all of this. “We should do something.” What praytell, are ‘we’ supposed to do? I am the most powerful blogger in all of Clipperdom. That, and $3.65 will get a triple grande nonfat latte at the Starbucks.
Of course we overanalyze everything that every pundit says. Of course we look for slights at every turn. What do you propose we do? Our jobs?
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 20, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm the most powerful blogger in all of Clipperdom"
Apparently congratulations are in order. Use that power to create adverse publicity. That is our angle. Our only angle. But it can be a powerful angle.
Zhiv can write the press releases – but he’s got to keep them under a page, double spaced.
Set up protest events outside the stadium. Believe me, people will go.
Unless you are trying to curry MDSr’s favor. At this point other Clipper management would probably tacitly support you.
Seems to me that this blog surprisingly sits on the fence while we continue to support an atrocious team, coming up with excuse after excuse as to why they’ll be better next year. “Just tweak this or that” we say. “Kaman will perform well soon” we argue. “ZBo could be the savior” we exclaim. Etc., etc., etc.
My suggestion CS – get angry. Stop rationalizing. Turn this blog into something purposeful.
by Jax on Mar 20, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're missing the point...
I can sit where I like. You act as if futility is a recent phenomenon for the Clippers.
“Turn this blog into something purposeful.” Silly and insulting at the same time. Well played.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 20, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well played, indeed
CS , you asked, and I told you what I thought you could do. Didn’t intend to insult.
We both want the same thing. This is a forum to discuss our respective opinions. I’m grateful that you provide that forum.
I’m just a frustrated Clipper fan trying to figure out how to change the culture. Talking endlessly about people like Hollinger isn’t going to get that done IMO.
by Jax on Mar 20, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about talking about movies?
Will that get it done?
The point is, we talk about what we talk about.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 20, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're a funny guy
I see you want to give MDSr credit for 05-06. Give him that credit, my man. Of course, he’s got to take credit for the six bad years too.
And he deserves that credit. Let’s review. MDSr has been in charge since he’s been here for the past 7 years. It’s not just Baylor, it’s in MDSr’s contract. Even David Falk pointed that out.
by Jax on Mar 20, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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