Thoughts on the Draft But Not on Players...

by John Raffo on Apr 20, 2009 10:00 AM PDT

Like most of us, I've been thinking a lot about the draft recently and something occurs to me: If this is as weak a draft as many predict and with a lot of team holding out for the free agent "bonanza" after next season, what is the real value of those guaranteed contracts for first round picks and how will the economy and this weak draft affect teams under economical duress?

Is it worth it for high ranking playoff teams and teams near the end of their cap-rope to bother with first rounders and their guaranteed contracts at all? We saw Denver give away Marcus Camby last year, and we've seen a lot of serviceable middle-level guys get dumped or go jobless because of cap problems (Fred Jones, Mardy Collins come to mind)... and that's certainly not going to get any better next year, if, as predicted, attendance drops and the cap and luxury tax numbers drop as well. Rookie salaries won't drop, because they're fixed through the term of the CBA, not up for another two seasons.

But... this might really benefit a team like the Clippers and other teams that are safely under the cap and luxury tax levels... and not really waiting around to land a big fish in 2011.

Even more impactful might be the situation of teams like Phoenix or New York... sitting in 14th and 8th place in the lottery. Do the Mavs (with an payroll in the 90M area) want to lock a player in for two years (team option in the third and fourth) at 1.5M or the Knicks at 2M plus? Further back, why would the Lakers cut a serviceable and known quantity (DJ Mbenga?) to take on a guaranteed contract out of this weak draft?

Are there going to be guys available in the first round who are identifiable as real NBA players (or good gambles) but too expensive for some teams to lay out cash?

It looks to me like the Clippers could pick up some first rounders for chump change. Those picks might well include guys in the lottery... and they might pull it off without giving up their own first pick. The critical thing is you have to make sure those guys are guys you want on your team the next two years... and hopefully, beyond.

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Its a very interesting take

The going rate for picks seems to be the maximum cash allowed to be traded, or $3M.

So it would require MDSr to make the case for Sterling to shell out $3M per for the right to take on another contract valued at an additional $3M→$8M guaranteed.

Its a pretty clear case to us, but at the end of the day its a big part of the difference between Allen and Cuban and Sterling. So far.

by John R on Apr 20, 2009 10:53 AM PDT reply actions

You might also swap out future second rounders...

…I don’t think the Clips have any second rounders this year, but you could also package cheap or cuttable contracts you have on your roster, trade exceptions (again I don’t think the Clips have any), anything that doesn’t cost other teams guaranteed salary. Even second-year players with guarantees lasting another season might have more value than two-year guarantees for those looking for relief in 2010.

by John Raffo on Apr 20, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes

Unless Portland or someone else is still paying $3M for picks and setting the market price. There is no limit to the number of players they can try to stash in Europe. Once you get down to the middle of the first round the only way to save another team any money is basically to trade them another very, very small contract, which really gets into marginal savings. At the end of the day, a team doesn’t have to sign a player they draft. So even once they make the pick, if they don’t like their financial situation they can say screw it and not lose any money.

All of that said, I think this is something the Clippers should look into doing, but I would be surprised if the price dropped down below the floor of just not signing their pick to a contract. That value is +/-$0M, so I think you will pretty much see teams need to give up cash.

by John R on Apr 20, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions

The Suns are always selling their picks

But this is an interesting topic that has not been given much thought. I think last years late rounder 1st rounders had more talent than this year’s crop

by Qlippers on Apr 20, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Which means, perhaps, that the pick-selling phenomenon might slide down the draft...

…and right into the lottery. I guess the question is, if the quality of the draft is thin at the top, how’s the overall quality? Does it plateau after you get to three or does it keep falling off?

by John Raffo on Apr 22, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Portland...

They really are in their own class aren’t they? Small market, but with an owner who doesn’t need to make a profit. A perfect home for arrogant pseudo-genius, Pritchard.

by John Raffo on Apr 22, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

can blake griffin play SF?

just wondering, cause we really need an SF

by highriser on Apr 20, 2009 9:40 PM PDT reply actions

no

he would be to slow to guard SF’s he can play PF and C.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Apr 20, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions

If it goes Kings, Wizards, Clipps in the draft...

Any chance you think we could trade picks with Washington to move up?

by dulciusEXasperis on Apr 21, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions

probably not

they probably want to hold on to him and play him with Agent Zero

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Apr 21, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Anything is possible.

If you believe Griffen is the real deal, you can trade this 1st rd pick and Minny’s pick

by Qlippers on Apr 22, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

what about Ricky D and some cash for a 1st rounder?!

a little but of cash(preferably something in the $1 mil range) along with rickys expiring contract could be something teams take a look at. thats a million in cash and an expiring contract rather than what was already pointed out that a rookie contract could be something in the $3-8 million over its length. i’d take a look at a few guys in the mid 1st….blair, terrence willliams, maynor, lawson, hansbourogh. or jrue holiday come to mind. maybe even craig brackins as a sleeper

by krapper11 on Apr 22, 2009 1:42 AM PDT reply actions

That's the thinking I was talking about...

Although it doesn’t immediately relieve anyone’s cap problem, it might mean something later on. Though, at under 3 million in salary, it’s not like Ricky’s expiring deal is hugely attractive.

by John Raffo on Apr 22, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions

As a fan, I'd be for it

The Clippers would be trading a little bit of nothing for a draft pick so what’s not to like? I’d rather have a late 1st round pick than Ricky D, but neither one should be in the playing rotation next year unless we have major injuries again. Is Sterling really in the mood to spend money obtaining an extra draft pick now? If he is, then the money would be better spent on a new coach. If we pick up a late 1st rounder, I think it more likely is part of a trade down in the draft with OKC, Memphis or Minny, who all have multiple picks.

I expect Brackins (if he even declares for the draft) and Blair to be selected late lottery or at least by pick 20. Late 1st round, the Clips would probably be picking a developmental project to back up Thornton. That could be useful, but it’s nothing to get too excited over.

by ClipCat on Apr 22, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions