Resetting the Draft
If the Clippers hired me to play GM for the draft, this is how I would approach it. I've seen enough mock drafts w/ Thabeet going to us at the 3 spot to be more than a little concerned, but hopefully we'll be competent enough to avoid him.
#1. Ricky Rubio - Many are tempted to put him in the #1 spot, and it's easy to see why if you watch any film on him. He's a throw-back kind of player that could not only be great, but one of the most exciting to watch lead a team. With the fan base and executives anywhere from disappointed to infuriated w/ BD's 1st season, this could be just the face lift the team needs. As recently mentioned in the previous thread, Rubio & EJ have the potential to make for one of the most youthful & explosive back courts in the league. Probability of drafting #1: 17.7%
#2. Blake Griffin - For strong reason, the consensus 1st overall pick would bring plenty of buzz to the Clippers, but Griffin wouldn't figure to have the kind of impact that the team needs in the short term, nor would he seem to have the edge on long term upside when compared to Rubio. He's definitely the most prudent pick at #1 due to his very high floor, but the Clippers don't need solid, they need transcendent. On the other hand, Griffin would seem like a dream pick for OKC...Probability of drafting #2: 17.3%
Probability of drafting 1 or 2 : 35% Unfortunately, we must come to grips with the fact that we are unlikely to draft Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio. While we have a solid chance of getting here, the reality is that we can't be too disappointed when the odds aren't in our favor. If it's any consolation, the Wizards only have a 35.2% chance of landing in the top 2 spots while the Kings are also under 50% likely go 1st or 2nd @ 46.5%
#3. DeMar DeRozan - Pick #3 is where it starts to get interesting, but what I like about DeMar is that he for sure has an NBA body w/ a ton of upside, and in the small amount of experience we have to go on, he played his best at the right time. Despite the merry-go-round exploits of his "posse", he seems like a good kid, and think he projects as a nice upgrade over Thornton because he's got a better shooting stroke and because he has an easier time deffering to teammates. He'll need to be coached, especially on the defensive end, but it's hard to pass up on this kind of talent, especially after Thornton's stock sliding over the past year. Unless someone goes overboard trying to trade up to get him, I take this guy all the way here. Probability of drafting #3: 16.4%
At least we are likely to land in the top 3 w/ an overall 51.4% chance.
#4. Brandon Jennings - Ricky Rubio aside, he's the only other PG that really stands out from the pack of solid points coming out this year. Like DeRozan, he's a hometown kid with plenty of upside to spare and is arguably more skilled at his position than DeRozan, but questions about how his body will hold up in the NBA persist. While he boasts more quickness and flash than Rubio, he doesn't seem to have that "heart of a champion" determination that Rubio plays with, though he does possess an inner toughness & cool about him that could prove to be very effective just as well. Would be slightly more willing to trade out of this spot, but am still plenty intruiged to take a shot and draft him. Probability of drafting #4 - 19.5%
#5. Jordan Hill - I don't like Hill at #3 or 4 as much because I like the idea of us taking a bold move rather than a safe pick this time, not that Hill is the safest pick around. No doubt he's improved tremendously over the last couple of years, but that also means he wasn't very good just a short time ago and his game still obviously needs plenty of work. Taking Harden, and dealing him shortly thereafter might be another option here, or just trading down or out altogether, just depends what we get back. Probability of drafting #5: 25%
Scary thought: We have about as much chance of drafting #4 or 5 (44.5%) as Sacramento has of drafting #1 or 2 (46.5%).
#6. With a 4% chance of landing here, we're obviously a big longshot to wind up having to be in this position, but if we do, we should be able to take one of the aforementioned players, especially with Thabeet & Harden projected in the top 5. If all else fails, we'd be all but forced to trade our pick, but the group of guys who figure to round out the lottery are Earl Clark, Stephen Curry, Gerald Henderson, Ty Lawson, Chase Budinger, Jonny Flynn, Erik Maynor, Tyreke Evans, & James Johnson. Donatas Mantiejunas (international player) is showing up on ESPN's simulator, but I don't know much about him.
1 recs |
54 comments
Comments
I swear that me and ghost_ride are brothers or something.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
by FlyByKnight on Apr 28, 2009 5:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, after talking about it for a month...
I think most of us are on the same page, and though it’s mostly just splitting hairs now, sometimes that’s fun to do.
by ghost_ride on Apr 28, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome write up
"This kid is the best new talent in the league right now, and I don't care who else you mention." -Suns Coach, Alvin Gentry, on Clippers rookie sensation, Eric Gordon.
by cliptakular on Apr 28, 2009 9:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
According to DraftExpress
Motiejunas is waiting until 2010.
I’m shocked that John Wall didn’t at least force the NBA to rule on his eligibility – and surprised that Motiejunas is waiting. It’s such a weak draft – there isn’t a better time for them to enter, it seems to me.
DeRozan feels like a ‘need’ pick, which is always dicey. He’s probably the best SF in the draft, and he may be a good pro – but he’s got a long way to go, it seems to me, and he’s a stretch at 3.
Of course, anyone is a stretch at 3 when you get right down to it. Thabeet scares me, Harden scares me, Hill scares me… I’d really very much prefer to have one of the top two picks, please.
Nice post.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Apr 28, 2009 9:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Harden seems safe
Harden seems like a safe pick and could be a good role-player — the only issue is that he might have a low ceiling.
by bballanalyst on Apr 28, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think harden and Griffin are safe bets. The one that scares me is Rubio. Have you seen his jumper ? I have a faster release… (which just means i miss, quickly). no 3 point range, no strength.. he might be next years russell westbrook but without the crazy dunks and 5 boards a game. personally, i think hes going to struggle if hes leaned upon. however, you can bet that mike dunleavy will give him some good courtside seats so it might be a moot point.
Thabeet doesnt scare me, hes going to be mediocre. I mean if Greg Oden is a number 1 pick as a center then how bad is thabeet going to be (not to say oden is bad) ? his offensive game is nonexistent (think DJ). now that i think about it how is thabeet any better than DJ ? he might be a better post defender but thats about it.
by andrewexd on Apr 28, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thabeet is alot better defensively
DJ barely started in college just to remind everyone just how raw he is. Thabeet has alot of flaws but he is a terrific defensive player. He’ll probably never be more than a 12 ppg scorer but he’ll shoot a high % (all put-backs, tip-ins, dunks and layups), rebound well and defend the traditional bigs well (he’ll be vulnerable to pick and rolls like almost all big men).
I’m okay with drafting him 3rd pick or lower but only if we move Kaman for Gerald Wallace and Camby for a draft pick.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 28, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
im just saying… if we draft thabeet you’ll really find out how good camby and kaman are. I dont think he can score 12 a game. Camby is borderline double digit scorer and hes a proven rebounder and he has that wierd 15 foot shot.
by andrewexd on Apr 28, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kaman for Wallace is a pipe dream
Gerald Wallace is the heart of the Bobcats, their star and most popular player by far. His stock has risen much higher than it was when the Bobcats were struggling and overloaded with wings early this season. The Bobcats already traded away 5 wings – J-Rich, Morrison, Carroll, Dudley and Brown, and they currently have 3 centers, Okafor, Diop and Nazr. Crash is the wing the Bobcats decided to keep and build their team around. After what he did this season, the Clippers would have to offer something crazy, such as Camby and EJ, to get him.
by ClipCat on Apr 28, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crash
Is not untouchable, in fact he’s injury prone and they kept him because he has a big contract and is no easy to unload. I just threw in the Kaman for Wallace trade since that one matches up well salary-wise. The point is we don’t Kaman or Camby if we have Thabeet (and Jordan).
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 29, 2009 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thabeet
To be a 7 ft + Jr. in College Basketball and not dominate is pretty pathetic. Oden after 1 yr. was a dominant college ball player. He’s definitely had his share of injuries, but the point is that bigs in College should be dominating to expect good things from them. DJ showed only flashes in his one year in college, and if he’d have stayed we’d probably be looking at drafting him at 3 instead of Thabeet. Yes, Thabeet’s defense is better, but why draft another DeAndre w/out the offensive potential? Doesn’t make sense to me. The fact that Thabeet’s upside looks to be a poor mans Dikembe is about the worst pick this franchise could hope for.
by ghost_ride on Apr 29, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He better than DJ for starters
He had two triple doubles in one season. UCONN made it pretty far into the tournament with his help. I don’t think he’ll be a superstar but he’s still a solid big man and if you look at SP’s recent article about big men then you know they come at a premium.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 30, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a prospect
It’s still arguable that DJ is a better prospect at this point because he has a higher ceiling. For one thing, Thabeet is a year and a half older than DJ and has gotten a lot more meaningful playing time, and on top of that is 7’ 3". He should be way better, but he’s just not that talented. Sure, if he keeps progressing he could be a solid piece to a team, but that’s not at all gauranteed. UCONN straight up ignored Thabeet’s presence on the offensive end throughout their run.
by ghost_ride on Apr 30, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure
I’d trade DJ for Thabeet in less than 1.3 seconds.
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Year
If DeAndre had stayed in college, where do you think he’d go this year?
There were pretty much no big men in college last year except for a couple, how they didn’t fare better is mind boggling to me, they are being drafted for their height in a weak draft…i’d just rather go for skill. Especially when you consider how many centers we already have.
Obviously, this is a moot point if we draft 1 or 2. Let’s just pray for that.
by ghost_ride on Apr 30, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DJ
Non-lottery pick this year. Would he have even gotten off the pine at A&M? Doubtful.
Yes, we do need the 2nd pick.
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DJ
He started alot of games as a freshman but wasnt that productive. Its hard to tell because we sucked so much this year but the jury is still out on his basketball IQ. I think he can easily be a solid NBA center but almost just as easily can be out of the league (or overpaid sitting on the bench) in 3 years.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on May 4, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we pick Rubio with #1 pick I will put a hit on Mike Dunleavy. Its not happening. IT wont happen. Not even sacremento is going to give up girffin for rubio (they have hawes and thompson but udrih at pg). and washington isnt giving up blake either even though they have a seemingly never healthy pg. DeMar Derozan isnt going #3. most mock drafts have him borderline top 10 and you dont have james harden who is easily top 5 if not the 3rd pick
by andrewexd on Apr 28, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DeMar Derozan isnt going #3. most mock drafts have him borderline top 10 and you dont have james harden who is easily top 5 if not the 3rd pick
Mark my words.
By the time the draft rolls around, DeRozan will be a top five pick and Harden will be fighting to stay in the top seven.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
by FlyByKnight on Apr 28, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NBADraft.net's most recent mock
has DeRozan at #4 and Harden at #6. I really don’t want to pick DeRozan at #3 either, but it’s not that out there of an idea. Like SP wrote, there’s no safe pick at #3.
by ClipCat on Apr 28, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plan B
If we end up with the 3rd pick or lower our best hope is that another team wants to move up and is willing to swap additional picks. We need some solid glue guys to come off the bench that care about winning and not stats.
Curry, Lawson and a few other upperclassmen fit that mold.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 29, 2009 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Curry too
If the Clips are able to trade down to the 10-12 range, I like picking up Curry. He’s a smart guy who can provide depth at the 1 & 2 and therefore backup both Baron and EJ.
by Michael White on Apr 29, 2009 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry
I’m curious, why do you say that? In that range 10-15, do you like Holiday better?
by Michael White on Apr 29, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry
He is too small, can’t dribble, and can’t defend. Classic 1/2 tweener. He’s still riding the wave of the 2008 NCAA tourney. Besides, he’d get no playing time on this Clips team.
We are not drafting in the 10-15 range. If we do trade down to accumulate more picks, then we can reassess that portion of the draft at that time.
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 6:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curry seems
Pretty Jarryd Baylessy, which might not be such a bad thing.
by ghost_ride on Apr 30, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bayless
I still think he’s going to be a good pro, it’s tough getting minutes b/c that Blazer team is so deep on the wings. I certainly no longer think it was a mistake to draft EJ over him, though. :)
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bayless
is a very gifted athlete (Youtube his dunk on the Nets). I think he’ll be a good, maybe he’ll replace Steve Blake one day or maybe the Blazers will package him with some of their other young prospects for a veteran.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on May 4, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a ideal work ethic
He started his off-season workout the day our playoffs ended. I expect Sergio Rodriguez to be moved to make room for Bayless to be the backup and show his stuff. We have high hopes for his future, we just redshirted him this season.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on May 6, 2009 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bust is a bit harsh
I’ve watched quite a bit of Curry the last couple of years since he is from Charlotte, and Davidson is only about 25 miles away. He’s a very tough, smart, highly skilled player with a great attitude. In the right situation, a good team that needs a jolt of offense off the bench, he will become a valuable fan favorite. I think he’ll develop into a solid 6th man just a tick below Jason Terry or Mo Williams.
But I don’t think there are enough available minutes for the Clippers to develop both Curry/Lawson/Flynn/Maynor/Teague and Mike Taylor. I wouldn’t argue that Taylor is better than all those guys, but he (and Mardy) are already on the team and played reasonably well this year. We have greater needs in the frontcourt. The only way that Curry makes sense is if we have two picks, and he’s the BPA for our second pick.
by ClipCat on Apr 29, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only guy(s) I would trade back in the draft for would be someone like Tyreke Evans, Jeff Teague, or Gani Lawal.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
by FlyByKnight on Apr 29, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lawal
He’s a guy no one really talks about, but I think he’ll be pretty good.
by ghost_ride on Apr 29, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if the clippers select Taylor griffen over rubio and Blake Griffen
Then I might pony up some serious dough for the hit.
by Qlippers on May 1, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
terrence williams is the most underrated player in the draft
if we dont get one of the top 2 picks i’d love to trade down to the late lottery and pick this guy up. his D is nba ready, he rebounds at a very high rate and can create for others(5 asst/gm). his only knock is his shot, which is a little sketchy but his overall game is more nba ready than just about everyone else in the lottery. they call him a poor mans iguodala or wade, but this kid has potential to be a very solid 2/3…
by krapper11 on Apr 29, 2009 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i've also warmed up to picking Hill
they say hes a solid role player at best, but in all reality the majority of players drafted in the lottery every year never equate to more than a solid role player. Lamarcus Aldridge is a perfect example of this. He’s supposed to be a part of portlands 1-2 punch with Brandon Roy, but without BRoy Lamarcus is nothing! He cant dominate offensively, he cant dominate defensively, in fact he doesnt have much of a game outside of hitting an open 18 footer or dunking. I’ve seen a couple turnaround hooks in the low post, a couple hard drives here and there from the high post, but hes a number 2 option at best, closer to number 3, never a number 1, and he was picked 4th in 2006! Its rare you get a number 1 option in the draft to build your team around, many teams fail every year looking for that. we may have lucked out last year by snatching EJ at 7, who looks to be a go-to guy for us in the foreseeable future, and drafting Hill might not be so bad if he can be a solid number 2 option to EJ in 3-4 years. he has a 15-18ft jumpshot, a couple post most, he rebounds at a high rate, he works hards. he may not be a star but a very solid number 2 option sounds more than possible. again i’ve warmed up to him, not saying we should go out of our way to draft him, but i dont think he’ll be a huge flop or anything, more so a solid number 2/3 option much like L.A. in portland…
by krapper11 on Apr 29, 2009 5:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
May 19th
Not sure what time its at but thats the date. Everyone needs to find a lucky penny, borrow a lucky rabbit foot, sacrifice a goat/virgin so we get Blake Griffin. If you don’t, well its YOUR fault we don’t get the 1st pick.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 30, 2009 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loud City Blog
The Thunder fans are trying to figure it out too.
http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2009/4/25/852832/understanding-the-nba-draft
They actually have a great situation, as long as they are 1-4 they get a player that helps them.
1st pick – Blake Griffin – Local kid, adds to their holy trinity of Westbrook, Durant and Green
2nd pick – Ricky Rubio – Pure point, can move Westbrook to the 2 and they have a exciting backcourt
3rd pick – Hasheem Thabeet – True Center, they just added a traditional big man to their team
4th pick – James Hardin – They found a good backcourt mate for Westbrook.
I’m envious of them :(
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Apr 30, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Presti
Another excellent GM. Now THAT is how you rebuild a team. It all starts from the top, folks.
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what Presti did that was so brililant
They finished 2nd in the draft lottery and had Durant fall to them. It’s not as though that takes talent. They traded Ray Allen for Jeff Green—- okay that move is pretty solid. They drafted Westbrook but passed up on Gordon. Since we’re evaluating this in hindsight, would you rather have Westbrook or Gordon? And what, because they might pick in the top 4 again this year, we should crown Presti an excellent GM?
by Michael White on Apr 30, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously
Drafting Kevin Durant at #2 that year was the best thing he did, and anyone on this board would have done the same thing. Westbrook was a little bit of a reach to say the least, going after the rare, skilled big man like Lopez or Love would have been a better move for them. It would have made them even more flexible in this draft, because i’m not sure how much Harden helps them. They wouldn’t have a true point, and they’d have 3 starters who might all be shooting guards.
by ghost_ride on Apr 30, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hired PJ Carlesimo...
A bad idea. Then fired him, a good idea. Scott Brooks… hmm… dunno. So far, his two big moves outside the draft were moving Ray Allen and getting a trade exception for Rashard Lewis. Gave up Chris Wilcox in the aborted Tyson Chandler trade. Not much here.
by swamigusto on Apr 30, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TNT
Not every GM has the cajones to come in and say “look, our team stinks, we need to completely rebuild, time to blow this sucker up.” The Clippers instantly improve if they reach that same conclusion. But alas…
The Kurt Thomas deal was pretty nifty, imo.
by supac on Apr 30, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a hundred ppl praying in india for the clippers getting the #1 pick
I just had to buy tons of rice
by Qlippers on May 1, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don’t understand the infatuation with rubio. Sure he may turn out good, but seriously, how many have really seen him play, not just the youtube highlights? Besides, point guards are easier to come by than big, athletic players who can play multiple positions. If the clips are back in the lottery next year, I’m willing to bet money on that, they should go for John Wall. He’s awesome!! If they draft thabeet, I wouldn’t be disappointed, he’s way more athletic than oden and just because he didn’t put up spectacular stats, he was dominant defensively and the guard oriented offense didn’t allow him to really develop all that much. I still think athletic players who can play multiple positions is the way to go, james johnson, stanley robinson, etc.
by Seansdad08 on Apr 30, 2009 10:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rubio
2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. You didn’t tune in?
by supac on May 1, 2009 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
He was 17 at the time (turned 18 in October) and looked good out there against our finest. Unless he does ridiculously poor workouts the 2nd pick is his to lose. Any team that has the second pick and doesn’t need a PG has to explore picking him and then trading down.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on May 5, 2009 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
#3 pick is so iffy
I would take a look at Demar, Evans, Earl Clark. Basically Swingmen and SF position
by Qlippers on May 1, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Way too early for some of them
There are some guys that can be solid starters.
Griffin, Rubio, Thabeet should pretty much be the order. Derozan will be very good on a up-tempo team (he’d be terrible in MDsr’s offense).
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on May 5, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeMar
Just play him w/ Mike Taylor, Ricky Rubio, or even a normal (trying) BD, that would be great. Wouldn’t worry too much about Dunleavy’s offense, doesn’t look like we’ll have to put up with that much longer.
by ghost_ride on May 5, 2009 6:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Um
We won’t be able to get him and Rubio. I think Derozan can be very good but hes kind of like a younger Al Thornton at the moment, hopefully with higher basketball IQ.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on May 6, 2009 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops
Right, but you get my point, it’s not the roster we have that’s keeping us from playing uptempo, and even given Sterling’s penny pinching reluctance to replace Dunleavy, his days are numbered.
by ghost_ride on May 6, 2009 6:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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