The Blake Griffin Effect

Good post. It’s interesting to see the Clips with a marquee name, a consensus #1 who is universally projected to be an impact player.

One thing it shows is that the franchise has come a long way since FElton first arrived from Chicago. If the Clippers are still getting very little or no respect now, and no one is spending much time giving serious consideration to how Griffin will fit into their roster, things were much worse when EB pulled off the trade that brought FElton to the Clips. At that point, the Clips were definitely more comical and bumbling and pathetic. They were cheap and were just starting to play at Staples, which was a big step forward (did FElton ever play at the Sports Arena? I don’t think so.)

In the interim they’ve signed free agents, made a lot of good personnel decisions and trades, things like not overpaying Bobby Simmons, the sign and trade with Jaric for Cassell, the trade for Camby, drafting Al Thornton and Eric Gordon. They didn’t overpay for Maggette, and should have solved the PG conundrum by signing BDavis, although that’s very much a work in progress, along with lots of other things. And they have the sterling-quality practice facility. It’s a professional organization, despite the fact that the national (and local) media wants to diminish their legitimacy.

A lot of the credit for this development should go to Dunleavy. He’s a deeply problematic figure, but he has pushed DTS and the Clippers forward with the same stubborn focus that he has shown in making some horrendous coaching decisions.

But I’ve been thinking about the impact of Griffin quite a bit over the last couple of days. We need to spend some time focusing on the positives. This is a truly fortuitous event, a tipping point that will have an amazing impact on the Clippers. But the ground has been prepared throughout the Dunleavy era, and the team has been making good decisions and making determined efforts to improve and compete, even though it hasn’t seemed like that at all on a daily basis and through a long death march of defeat. All of the injuries were very bad breaks, misfortunes, and they were compounded by the bizarre reactions of a stubborn, old school, conservative coach.

But now this downtrodden team has finally gotten a lucky break. We’ve been waiting for things to turn around and for something good to happen for a long time.

We’re taking our time getting around to it, but the question, it seems, is an analysis of MDSr’s tenure.

Let’s start by saying that he shouldn’t be the coach, at least not in a reasonable world. But the DTS Clippers aren’t reasonable and never have been. And the fact is that he is the coach, and he is the GM.

And yes (working backwards), he’s a horrible game day coach. That’s reason enough why he shouldn’t have his job. And yet he still has it.

Getting along with the players is a little bit trickier. He’s nobody’s buddy, but he did seem to have a good relationship with certain players until recently, when his conflicts with players became magnified by the Baron Davis conflict. He had issues with Maggette, and with Chris Wilcox before that, but those issues were based on style of play. He seemed to have good relationships with Cassell and other veterans. He seemed to get along with FElton, although FElton had questions about the Maggette debacle. I like to remember that he pushed FElton to improve his fitness and play and FElton responded with an MVP-level season. And the following year, Chris Kaman became Kaman 2.0, showing remarkable improvement.

I would argue that MDSr is an especially poor coach when faced with injuries and unforeseen problems. When he needs to experiment and innovate, he becomes more conservative and stubborn, and he stands on bad ideas for much too long. His system is probably not so bad when you have a rock solid roster, one that is able to prosper in matchups and play hard defense. But through one circumstance or another, over and over again, MDSr hasn’t had anything close to a solid lineup that could execute his system, and he has never made a commitment to do anything differently, even in the midst of continuing abject failure.

Along with the bad, he made one unforgiveable draft pick when he passed on Granger and picked Korolev. Thornton was a good enough pick, and Gordon was solid. The Livingston pick was an honest mistake, although it foreshadowed the Korolev pick. Going for the obvious and playing it safe in both cases would have yielded far better outcomes. The second round picks have been unfortunate thus far.

That gets us to trades, where he has done well enough. The Randolph deal is still in question, I would think. I like the fact that the Clips got a productive player who filled FElton’s role to some extent, and that they got rid of Tim Thomas and Mobley, allowing Gordon to start. There’s a false argument here, to a certain degree, because MDSr could have just started Gordon and brought Mobley off the bench (and made Davis2 earn his minutes), and he could have benched Tim Thomas, started DJordan or Skinner, and brough Novak off the bench.

Again, all good reasons why MDSr shouldn’t be the coach. But we should probably look at them as reasons why he won’t be the coach much longer.

But now I hit an area of disagreement. The eight year tenure. Has it really been that long? I don’t think it’s fair to put it all in one block. Yes, the Clippers could have won a lot more games over that span with a better game day coach, and a coach who had a better ability to utilize his personnel.

I like to look at the old Wilcox-Kaman controversy. After seeing Kaman 2.0 in 07-08, it appeared that MDSr made the right call on that one, that Wilcox was an athletic player who couldn’t thrive even when he got consistent minutes playing for the Sonics. But the problem with that argument is that it doesn’t account for the fact that Wilcox was a much better player than Kaman over the first two years of Kaman’s career, when Kaman was basically a doofus. Starting Wilcox (or Big Z) at that time, and reducing Kaman’s turnovers and empty minutes, would have helped the team considerably. It’s notable that Dunleavy played Kaman extensively as a rookie and coddled him for years, and yet he failed to get DJordan many significant minutes on a depleted roster with 60+ losses. The same type of choice is evident in the infamous Maggette debacle, when Dunleavy cost a talented, successful team multiple wins when he stayed with QRoss in the starting lineup for half a season.

That 06-07 season was the watershed moment. The best thing would have been for Elgin to step down, or take the VP job you mention, and for MDSr to become the GM. My guess is that MDSr would hire a good coach, if he was forced to, not one of the scrubs that the Clips might have had in the past. It was probably too much to ask, however, for MDSr to kick himself upstairs right after almost making it to the conference finals. But that was the moment, it seems to me.

At any rate, I think you have a rising but flawed effort and record through the first 5 years, leading up to the 06-07 debacle, when things took a turn. The franchise really did take some significant strides during that first period (five years seems a year too long to me, but I’m not going to check), and the trip to the playoffs consolidated that effort. The important twist came when Dunleavy got the big new contract and extension: that was another watershed moment.

What’s interesting is that the horrible failures in each of the last three years have been so strange and twisted and complex. It’s simple and correct to place MDSr at the center of the poor decisions in each separate case, but the injuries have distorted the picture. It adds up to an inexcusable record, however, for the reasons cited above: inflexibility and a lack of resourcefulness with the personnel, poor game day decisions.

That’s a more developed breakdown. It doesn’t inspire greater confidence in MDSr, but it does allow the discussion to procede in a more thoughtful way. There are reasons why MDSr got the extension. The Clippers don’t work on the same clock as other teams, and they’re not going to start. When MDSr got the extension, he was virtually guaranteed to be coaching this upcoming season. It’s amazing that he could lose so many games and that so many things could go wrong, and still have his job. Even more amazing is the idea that he’ll be making deals and heading into the season with renewed confidence, based on the Griffin pick and the somewhat impressive roster that he has put together, even though it is yet to approach even the most modest level of respectability.

MIke Dunleavys substitutions/lineups are absolutely maddening sometimes. But I would argue that his work as GM deserves a lot of credit, particularly if you give him credit for being GM all along, as you have suggested (and I agree). Since that time, he traded Marko Jaric for Sam Cassell (The best Clipper ever in my opinion, but that is another post) AND a 1st round draft pick. He traded Chris Wilcox for Vlad Radmonivic, who was a major contributor for us in the playoffs that year, a great move in my opinion. He Got Marcus Camby for nothing, and managed to dump Tim Thomas and pick up a 20-10 power forward to fill the void left by Elton Brand. Furthermore, and contrary to what you have suggested, I would argue that his Draft day record is excellent:

In 2003, he drafted Chris Kaman, easily the best player left in that draft (It would have been nice to have a top 5 pick that year, but that’s just how it goes sometimes). In 2004 he took Shaun Livingston. I still contend that was the correct pick. Livingstons injuries were unfortunate, but his talent was undeniable and its not every day you come across a 6’7 point guard with super court vision. 2005 was the lone stain on Dunleavy’s draft day resume, as we definitely should have taken Danny Granger, who somehow slipped to 14 (although other than Granger there was a whole lot of nothing left , and 13 teams passed on him…only 2 of them don’t regret it). IN 2007, Dunleavy grabbed Al thornton with the 14th pick in the draft, an absolute steal, as AT is definitely one of the top 5 players in that draft, and I would argue even higher than that. 2008 saw Dunleavy take Eric Gordon, which has worked out perfectly, and 2009 looks like the year that Dunleavy will take Blake Griffin. Nothing about that record says below par to me.

I would argue that there has been a fundamental change in culture, as Cuttino Mobley and Baron Davis were the type of major free agent signings that the Clippers never saw before. A lack of success since our terriffic year in 06 is disappointing, but not really all that surprising. the 07 Clips were disappointing, as that team certainly underachieved (finishing just under .500), but Sam Cassell was another year older, Shaun Livingston was lost in February, and the injury bug got so bad that Luke Jackskon and Doug Christie were signed to 10 day contracts. In 2008 the Clippers were destined to fail, Sam Cassell was washed up/ hurt, Shaun Livingston was out for the season, as was Elton Brand. We all know how the 2009 season went. The Clippers “star” player, Baron Davis, was either out of shape or hurt, and the Clippers were going to have a lot of trouble winning without him producing. Alex Acker, Steve Novak, Brian Skinner, Mardy Collins…all these guys got significant minutes because the Clippers were so desperate as a result of injuries.

 You mentioned that Dunleavy does not garner the respect of the players. I refuse to accept this as an excuse for the players. Who are they going to respect? The Clippers are not going to sign Phil Jackson or Greg Popovich, Red Auerbach and Chuck Daly are dead, and MJ, Larry Bird, Kevin Mccahle are all working for other teams at the moment. At some point the players, starting with Baron Davis, have to play like professionals with some heart. It starts with Baron Davis. If he would try play the best he could within Dunleavys system, the entire team would benefit, most notably he and Mike Dunleavy (and I think he will).

I would love to see the Clippers with a new coach, I agree with your criticisms of Dunleavy as a game day coach. But who are we going to replace him with? Phoneix just fired terry porter and replaced him with Alvin Gentry, so the coaching talent pool isn’t exactly overwhelming ( I would keep Mike Dunleavy over either of those guys every day of the week). It would have been real nice to give Rick Carlisle or Flip Saunders a shot, but those ships have sailed.

As a GM, Mike Dunleavy has formed a nice group of young players whilch should begetting even better with Blake Griffin, and the CLippers have the 2nd lowest payroll in the league. Ill take that.