The Clipperblogger Summit - Part Five
by Steve Perrin on Jun 11, 2009 5:23 PM PDT
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PrintI don't know about you guys, but I can hardly wait to read each new dispatch from Kevin Arnovitz of Clipperblog in the Clipperblogger Summit. This one is particularly timely, because judging from my last two posts, I must be feeling quite curmudgeonly today. But Kevin is fixing the Clippers, so now I feel better. His latest missive is posted on his site, and re-printed below.
The conversation so far: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
To: Steve Perrin
From: Kevin Arnovitz
Date: June 11, 2009
When it comes to trades and transactions of any sort, my general belief is that, with rare exceptions, if an NBA team isn’t seriously contending, then it’s rebuilding. The franchises that get themselves into trouble are those that suffer from delusions that if they can somehow add a piece here and there, they’ll be right back in the thick of things.
The reason I had such a visceral reaction to the acquisition of Zach Randolph last November wasn’t because I thought he was a completely useless ballplayer (he’s not entirely useless), or that I thought the Clippers had the inside track to the upper echelon free agent talent in 2010. The deal annoyed me because it signaled that the Clippers suffered from managerial myopia. Rather than accept the fact that the Clippers had fallen out of serious playoff contention and take the hit, Mike Dunleavy pushed all in on Randolph. However you feel about Randolph’s talents, his contract wasn’t the sort of liability a team looking to rebuild should have put on its books for 32 months.
Over the past few years, we’ve seen smart franchises like Portland and the Sonics/Thunder see the writing on the wall. They resigned themselves to piling up losses, and drafted and dealt accordingly. They also got a little lucky (as the Clippers have this spring), and both teams are now poised for a bright future. Other than Darius Miles’ expiring deal in Portland, and 2 years/$13 million remaining on Nick Collison’s deal, there isn’t an eyesore anywhere on the spreadsheet. It’s not just the down-and-out, either. Critics killed Joe Dumars for dealing away Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson’s expiring deal, but Dumars realized that the Pistons’ window had closed and did the most sensible thing for the future.
We share similar views on Marcus Camby’s contract (quite valuable), and the Clippers should be very patient about moving it. We agree that Chris Kaman’s deal isn’t a toxic asset, but that he might be the best candidate to be traded to clear some room in the frontcourt, because the other contract down low – that belonging to Zach Randolph – is a millstone. As much as I’d like for the Clips to move Randolph, I wouldn’t do it for Luol Deng, a player I like a whole lot more than Randolph. Deng has a huge deal that runs through 2014, and my dislike for Randolph isn’t more unyielding than my strong belief that rebuilding requires payroll flexibility. If that means locking Randolph in the boiler room at Playa Vista for the next 22 months, then so be it. At least by dealing Kaman, the Clippers would be shedding years and getting leaner from a contractual standpoint.
My greatest fear about the current regime is that they see the arrival of Blake Griffin as an opportunity to win now. I have little doubt the Clippers are going to best 19 wins next season, but that should be the extent of their goal in 2009-10 so far as wins and losses go. The Clippers’ larger ambition should be to do what’s necessary to surround Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin with the very particular pieces they need. In Eric’s case, that means finding a counterpart on the wing who can cover bigger perimeter players – something Eric is always going to have trouble doing. If the Clippers have every intention of cultivating DeAndre Jordan as their center of the future, they’ll need to sculpt his game to compliment Blake Griffin’s. If the Clips intend to keep Baron Davis around for the next four years, Mike Dunleavy will have to craft an offensive strategy that will keep Davis from sabotaging the team’s success.
With all those considerations and the understanding that Gordon and Griffin are the building blocks of the future, how do you see this team emerging as an on-court product? What kind of basketball team do you think we will – or should – be watching in the coming years?
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Why is it always about the future?
We have been waiting for the Clipper’s future to arrive our entire Clipper fan life? Are we saying that if we get a chance to win a title by getting a couple of aging but great, proven basketball players (e.g., Nash and Duncan) by mortgaging away the entire farm other than enough pieces to win a championship, that we shouldn’t do it?
The Cetlics proved that with a few great pieces you can go from worst to best.
I say, “Win now, baby!”
No...
That’s not what they said at all. Kevin’s point is that most teams AREN’T a few pieces away…at least not real pieces. In your example, how are they getting Duncan? And even if Duncan and Nash were on this team, are they real contenders at this stage in their careers?
It’s about the future because the Clips have done a horrible job putting the team together. When they stop making bad personnel decisions (like trading for Randolph’s fat…contract) then they’ll be better suited to stop constantly rebuilding.
And this team is nowhere near “winning now.”
Agree
As usual, Kevin nails it. The Randolph trade was a myopic act of desperation to try for a quick fix to a problem largely of their own making. Now is the time to move slowly, and he’s right about trading Kaman for a wing.
I concur
I said the same exact things when the trade was made. Only about 5 teams in the league have a realistic chance of winning it all each year and if you aren’t in that group you have to identify whether you are close enough to join that group with some changes or blow them whole thing up and start from scratch.
We fortunately landed the 1st pick in a draft with only one sure thing, we have a young SG coming off a terrific rookie year and we have alot of talented players with reasonable contracts (ZBo and possibly Baron aside). Can this squad win a championship? No. Can this team make some adjustments and be in the group in 2-3 years? Yes.
We can move Camby at some point in the year. We can pull the pull on Kaman 3.0 due to funding difficulties. We can perhaps trade Zbo for expiring deals. We can sit tight and wait until 2011 where we have a ton of cap room. When you have 2 great building blocks like BG and EJ you have alot of possibilities.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 11, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions
To be more specific
Only about 5 or so franchises have a shot at winning the thing any given year. Of all the major sports, basketball is the one with the fewest amount of teams accounting for the last 30 champions.
The Clippers are NOT one of those teams. Accordingly, their goals and mindset are a little bit different. It is unlikely that they are going to be able to compete for a championship until they acquire an elite player. All champs have an elite player. We have to wait for ours to develop since FA’s don’t usually end up here.
So the Randolph trade was a good move in that respect. The Clippers were not going to be competing for a championship anytime soon. The team goal should be to put a watchable product on the floor and try to be competetitive.
F-Elton!
Wrong kind of attitude
There’s nothing in the rulebook that says we have to settle for being a crappy franchise or sloppy seconds. If expansion teams like Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat can make it to the Finals (and win a championship), if small market teams like San Antonio and New Jersey or a struggling city like Detroit can field a contender for 7 straight years then surely a team playing in the 2nd biggest media market should be more ambitious than being just a middling team. It’s that kind of negative thinking that keeps us a laughingstock of the NBA.
The ZBo trade was short-sighted, but at least it ends in 2011. For the record Zbo’s game isn’t even that aesthically pleasing as I can’t recall him ever dunking the ball or running a fast break and I can’t see how he drastically helped us last year (19 wins, what would our record have been without him, 16-66 instead?). And you are wrong, we CAN be competing for a championship team within 3-5 years if BG and EJ become all-stars (which they have the potential to do) and we add the right mix of players to play alongside them.
Fortunately our two best players in 2-3 years are both solid citizens, have huge upsides and if we make the right moves (or at least avoid the wrong moves) we can change the culture of the team in and outside of the locker room.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 13, 2009 6:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Right
I meant that at the time of the Zbo trade, the Clippers were not on a championship trajectory. Bringing him on for 3 years did not derail the future. In fact, as Zhiv points out, it got EJ into the strating lineup much sooner than he otherwise would have.
F-Elton!
Why did we have to get Zbo and take on $45 M to get EG into the starting lineup?
Sorry, I don’t get it. Wasn’t EG already on the team?
Best Chris Kaman trade
Would have to be to Dallas for Jerry Stackhouse who contract can be bought out and Shawne Williams who is a long wing who has the potential to develop into a very fine player. The Clippers can take a chance on him…
Dallas Fan Here
I think Dallas would be interested in a deal for Kaman that centers on Stack’s partially guaranteed contract.
You don’t want Shawne Williams – except maybe for his expiring contract. He was banished from the team about mid-season. The details are sketchy, but it was for something like “immature behavior.” Considering his arrest history – like being pulled over for possession of pot, then the cops find that your car isn’t registered, you don’t have a valid license, and your friend is carrying an unlicensed gun – well, it’s questionable at best that he’ll turn his life around. The kicker is that his play was pretty weak anyway before his extended vacation.
by MavinClipsLand on Jun 11, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m loving this exchange between you and KA, Steve.
Another interesting aside, what’s up with these soon-to-be rooks talking smack?
Brandon Jennings thinks of himself as a true point guard and thinks that Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans will struggle in the NBA at the position.
Not Clipper related, but dang… I’m kind of glad we’re going to get the Griff. He seems to be well-spoken and not have the baggage that someone like last year’s top pick had.
Stuck in limbo.
Rose has baggage?
Outside of the recent test score incident (looks like Memphis is to blame) he seems like a good kid.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 11, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions
This picture is a from a story that just hit the press today.
And the following was from last year.
Derrick Rose’s laugh briefly replaced his sheepish smile when asked if the freak injury he suffered Monday morning had come as payback for giving up Gummi Bears.
A self-described sweets freak in college, Rose needed 10 stitches to close a gash in his left forearm after he said he rolled onto a knife while eating an apple in bed.
Stuck in limbo.
Where's the story?
The apple thing was covered, no foul play was discussed.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 11, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
by PaperClip on Jun 11, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Back to Rebuilding
The Clippers/Dunleavy need to set their sights on the future. The team that should get a majority of the minutes this season are the young maturing core. (Gordon, Jordan, Griffin) Its a necessity to move one or two parts out the the frontcourt of this team.
I see talent and athleticism on the team im just scared to death dunleavy/ B. Davis are going to choke the life and optimism out of this team. I just want to watch a fun game of ball instead of stagnant offense and 4 players watching one guy take on 5. It looks like highschool basketball more often than not. Being a Clipper fan isnt easy but when thinking about waiting one more season it doesnt faze me. So WHAT is just one more season?
D-Miles dont call it a come back
by Darius Miles Up In Smoke on Jun 12, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
A Critique
The summit is awesome. It’s a bit sketchy in terms of topics—somehow I’m not absolutely sure what’s being discussed at any given time, or exactly why—but it’s great to see the meeting of the Clipper minds.
KA’s viewpoint on the Randolph trade is worth discussing. He’s right on the whole, but it’s not quite as cut and dried as it might seem, even with the salary issue factored in. Let’s try to remember what was going on at the time, and look at the sequence in order (as we have many times before of course).
The Clippers need a PG, and we’re talking ourselves into Beno Udrih while debating the merits of Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, and DJ Augustin (with DRose and RWestbrook, a questionable choice, already gone) The Clips take Gordon, which seems like the right move. They sign Baron Davis—PG problem solved. FElton defects. Camby arrives in a trade, a bit shocked and disgruntled (and btw has any one thought about or commented on what Camby’s feelings might have been during the Denver run, especially when BirdMan so clearly took Camby’s spot in the hearts and minds of Nugget fans). Camby is injured and misses all of training camp and the preseason. Tim Thomas misses the preseason, along with Baron Davis. Kaman is clearly not in 2.0 form. Paul Davis is the semi-credible PF for a time, along with Brian Skinner, although Tim Thomas makes it back, and after the first week (of losses) Camby is finally wearing the Clipper uniform. Aren’t those names and the effort they were mustering in November, just a few months after you thought that FElton would be around and the position was a lock, enough to make desperation a legitimate response?
Part two of the same dilemma is that the Clippers crave and need basic credibility more than most subpar teams. They’re a laughing stock, a tired punchline. Under the circumstances of the BD signing and the FElton defection and everything mentioned above, it looked like the wheels were coming off yet again in an unimaginably horrendous way. And they were. It was about to get worse. At the time we didn’t know that Baron Davis didn’t just have problems with Dunleavy, he also was playing at a diminished level, willing to sabotage the team in a subtle way until he realized he was sabotaging his own standing and profile in a much more serious manner. Kaman got hurt. The wheels did indeed come off, but the Randolph trade actually gave the team the one tiny burst of halfway decent play that they enjoyed last season.
Last, most importantly, and mentioned on many previous occasions, the Randolph trade (which I was immeditately shocked and horrified by at the time) fixed the Clippers lineup and hastened their growth considerably by making Eric Gordon the starter and taking Tim Thomas away. Randolph has all sorts of limitations, but he’s a credible PF. If Kaman and Camby had been healthy and we could have seen them in the preseason and the first ten games, with Thomas coming off the bench, it might have been different.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 12, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Green - nice
Good post Zhiv. I would take issue with your final point, which is that while the Randolph trade made Gordon a starter, a good thing in the short term, it hurt the team long term for the reasons KA mentioned. As it turns out, we didn’t win more than 19 games even with Randolph and his other issues.
Not sure what you are referring to about Kaman and Camby. Are you saying that if they were healthy we might not have traded for Zbo? I suspect that this wouldn’t have made a difference. MDSr probably realized that it was unlikely that they’d be healthy for the entire year and also that neither one of them could replace EB’s offensive production (in the iso manner MDSr likes). Thus, and given MDSr’s apparent past fascination with MDSr, getting him was likely a huge priority for MDSr, still stinging from losing EB.
The Clips seemed to be forming an identity
and building some momentum before the Zbo injury. Not sayin the situation was great, but they finally had a player who was going to call for the ball and score. Agree with MDSr long coveting/pursuing Zbo. Destiny?
Don't Know, Doesn't Matter
I think I kind of believe that final point—that if Camby had been healthy when he showed up (just remember Camby’s later eardrum injury…when it rains it pours), and Kaman and Camby had a good training camp and preseason and learned to play together, the trade might have happened.
I’ve said before that Tim Thomas makes at least the tiniest sense coming off the bench, but he’s a glaring toxic asset as a starter. Like, supertoxic. We saw more than enough of it in 07-08. As bad as last season was, at least the Zach Randolph trade made it more interesting. Can you imagine what last season would have been like when Kaman got hurt?! Camby and TT, Thornton, Mobley, and BD. Remember that the only thing worth watching last season was Eric Gordon, but what if he had been on the bench, still getting limited minutes through January? We got some good entertainment out of Zbo for a nice little stretch.
It was short-sighted, I suppose, but I’m just cant fully endorse KA’s strong position. There are just too many factors. And remember that with Tim Thomas gone, Steve Novak eventually started to play, another important development. Gordon was going to come around eventually, but I would argue that there’s no way he would be where he is now without that trade. But seeing that Novak can contribute could be a significant (not major, but significant) part of the roster building that needs to continue now.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 13, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Rebuilding takes discipline...
And I’m not sure there’s a magic formula. Randolph was a risk, to be sure. And given the results of the year, it looks like it didn’t pay off. But is it impossible to imagine Cleveland trading Wallace for Randolph? In which case, the team would be no worse off than pre-Randolph trade – cap space in 2010. I actually think that MDsr is of the opinion that there’s no reason to ‘dump’ 20 and 10 – but he very well might be able to. My point is, it’s still to early to call the Z-bo trade a failure. If cap space in 2010 is the only thing the team lost, the simple fact is, they haven’t lost that yet.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 13, 2009 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
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