The Clipperblogger Summit - Part Six
by Steve Perrin on Jun 14, 2009 5:00 AM PDT
in News
Email
PrintHere's the sixth installment of the Clipperblogger Summit, the ongoing conversation between Kevin Arnovitz of Clipperblog and myself about the current state of the Clippers. I'm leaving for some canyoneering in Utah today, so there won't be another entry from me until late in the week. But rest assured, there will be more. We haven't explained everything yet.
The conversation so far: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Part Five
To: Kevin Arnovitz
From: Steve Perrin
Date: June 14, 2009
Kevin -
I'm going to push back (a little) on the Randolph trade. Your point is well taken that if you're not seriously contending, you're re-building (a variation on Ricky Bobby's "If you ain't first, you're last.") But you have to take chances sometimes also. Mobley/Thomas were certainly not a part of the Clippers' future, and Citizen Zhiv correctly points out that trading Mobley sparked the one glimmer of hope for the 08-09 edition of the LAC, Eric Gordon. Given that Mobley+Thomas make the same amount as Randolph and are signed through this coming season, the additional liability wasn't 32 months and $45M (or so) but rather 1 year and $17M. Not insignificant, I'll grant you, but you can't get something for nothing. So I've always maintained that you can't call the Randolph trade a mistake - yet. Might the Cavs trade Ben Wallace and his expiring deal for the scoring machine that is Zach Randolph? They might - or there might be another trade out there that leaves the Clippers no worse off from a 2010 cap standpoint than they were with Mobley/Thomas. Now, MDsr's attitude seems to be "Why would I be looking to 'salary dump' 20 points and 10 rebounds?" so it's probably not going to happen. But I'm going to wait until next off-season before I pass judgement on the trade. The team gave up nothing but cap space - and they haven't actually given that up yet.
I'm also not convinced that the Portland rebuilding method is replicable. On their 08-09 roster, a team that played great and made the playoffs, all but three players were on rookie deals. So you can credit them for drafting incredibly well in recent years - and that Paul Allen piggy bank they use to buy Suns picks has come in handy - but it's not a sustainable formula, "Let's get rid of all the vets and win with young guys." Nine times out of ten, that roster isn't going to get you to the playoffs, and eventually those young guys have to be re-signed as well.
But more to the point, let's look at why the future looks so bright in Portland and (to a less extent) Oklahoma City. It's because they have young players with star potential to build around. They each have one can't miss mega-star, and are hoping that one or more of their other youngsters can make it to an all star level to complement the top guy - call it the Batman and Robin theory.
Before Blake Griffin has ever played an NBA game - indeed before he's even been drafted - there's reason for optimism that he and Eric Gordon can be the Clippers' dynamic duo. And there are still some other guys on rookie deals that can help. We've discussed the need for an alternative to Al Thornton, but he remains nonetheless an incredible bargain for two more seasons as a mid first round draft pick. DeAndre Jordan and Mike Taylor are not as productive as Thornton now, but are younger and both have intriguing potential. I'm very much looking forward to watching Taylor, Gordon, Griffin and Jordan play together next month in Las Vegas. That's an exciting foursome.
I think you and I are in agreement on this season - be opportunistic on trades, but by no means be desperate. If the right deal is available, take it, but don't take on any bad contracts. (Deng's contract is borderline in my book.) Worst case scenario, if you enter the season with this group, that's not a bad thing. Could this team 'win now'? Actually, yeah, they could. But it would involve Chris Kaman returning to his Kaman 2.0 form of the first half of 07-08, and Baron Davis returning to, well some form of point guard.
Davis is the key. But the good news is that there's no uncertainty. The Clippers' fortunes are tied to Baron as much as his fortunes are tied to the Clippers. The team has no choice but to stick with Baron for a while at least. The last time he was traded it was for Speedy Claxton and a 36 year old Dale Davis and his stock is lower now than it was then. Besides, even if the Clippers could move him for salary relief, they'd still need someone to play point guard. This remains a point guard driven league, and it wasn't that long ago that Baron Davis was in the upper echelon. Last season he was by many measures the worst point guard in the league. Surely he wants some redemption as much as the Clippers want some leadership. So what happened last season? Was he out of shape? Was he hand-cuffed by his coach? Was he sulking? And where was the explosiveness of the man who was one of the most physical points in the NBA? Was he injured, or did he just get old? Whatever the case, the guy who detonated in the muzzle of AK47 a mere two year ago had a measly three dunks all season as a Clipper, none of them memorable.
Baron has evidently been working out on a daily basis since May 10th, an indication that perhaps he is indeed looking for that redemption. Given how good Gordon is, and how good Griffin could be, if Baron Davis can return to his Golden State form, the Clippers actually have a chance to be competitive. If on the other hand Baron really has lost it, it bodes very badly for the team. Talk about a millstone - Randolph's deal runs two more years; Baron's runs until 2013 (a year that seems like the setting for a science fiction movie).
Immediately following the lottery, the entire Clippers organization began talking about playing up tempo. Andy Roeser brought it up the night of the lottery. Neil Olshey mentioned it more than once, without even being asked, at his press conference the next day. Unfortunately, it had the feel of spin, like a political campaign getting on message; this was a talking point. And of course it would make sense - season ticket holders might be more inclined to renew if they believed the team was going to run more.
I hope it's not just spin, because I happen to be a big believer in pushing the pace. It can be very difficult to score against an NBA defense once it's set. A few easy baskets in transition can do wonders for a team's shooting percentage (one of the reasons the Clippers have been near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage is that they don't get nearly enough easy scores.) Even if it's not a pure 'fill the lane' fast break, if Kaman (or whichever big) can hustle down the floor, and get good post position and the team can get him the ball early in the possession, that's a much better situation than running that cross screen to get probably worse position, this time with only 8 seconds left on the shot clock. With premium athletes joining the team three drafts in a row, it only makes sense to get them out and let them run - especially when you consider the particular talents of Baron Davis. Fast breaks start with rebounding, which the Clippers did incredibly poorly last season (29th in the league in rebounding differential at -4.2). With Blake Griffin joining Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph, the Clippers should be monsters on the glass (and it would help if Al Thornton and Eric Gordon weren't such terrible rebounders for their positions and obviously there's no reason they shouldn't be better than they are). If you're looking for a bellweather stat for the 09-10 Clippers, that's my candidate: rebounding differential.
In general, next season will be a success if Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin develop and if Baron Davis re-emerges even slightly, regardless of what else happens. Neither Gordon nor Griffin have reached the legal drinking age in California - so you're talking about some kids who can get a lot better. The 10-11 season becomes crucial though. The other rookie contract players (Thornton, Taylor and Jordan) will all be in the last year of their rookie deals - after that, they either get much more expensive or they're gone. So it's vital to know who those guys are by then. If, say two out of those three pan out, and assuming that Gordon and Griffin are for real, the Clippers will be one of those up and coming teams once again.
In all of this, I feel like we're kind of taking Gordon for granted. I tended to write one rave review per month about him last season, so I think everyone knows what I think about the guy - I think he's easily the second best rookie from last season after Derrick Rose. But am I looking at him through 'Gordon' colored glasses: how good is the kid?
Steve
22 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I agree with you 100%
I don’t think the ZBO trade was horrendous because it gave us the gift of Gordon and got rid of TT. I also agree that if Baron is working as hard as DJ says he is working and can become Boomdizzle again then we can compete. But really I don’t think we have to try and win it all. I think for fans a good goal should be to make the playoffs multiple years in a row. I mean look at how making it in 05-06 did for our respectability that year. If we were to be good enough to make the playoffs multiple years in row (say 3 or 4) I think it would help heal the it’s the clippers view of the team.
In Gordon we trust
Summitry
The thing I like best about this response, aside from SP being in lockstep with my quibbles on the Randolph trade and it’s generally strong, comprehensive approach, is the reminder it provides about a significant Dunleavy issue: the uptempo canard. I’ve said before that one of the big problems with Dunleavy is that he pushes the team, and plays every game, as if the Clippers are in contention and locked in a defensive struggle and deep in the playoffs where every possession is crucial, and veterans have an edge over youngsters. He thinks or acts as if, say, he’s in Stan Van Gundy’s shoes right now. Except he’s not, he’s not even close, and the entire notion is absurd. Yes, the team should play good, much better defense. It’s just so sad that MDSr can care so much about having a tough, defense-minded team, and finish at the very bottom of the league in defense and rebounding statistics. How does this happen? Part of it is a result of not allowing players to play basketball in the real world, where they’re not in contention, where they need to play with enthusiasm and use their best skills, growing through experience. This issue pertains to the discussion because of what SP says about having young, athletic talent, as well as getting onto the same page with players like BDavis, Kaman, and Camby. Our frustration last year was based on the fact that the Clips were obviously going to lose a ton of games, but they were going to be miserable and lackluster while doing it. If MDSr were to loosen up on the reins, at least they might have some fun, get excited, and perhaps good things might happen. Yes, the Clips have a lot of reasons to run, to play loose and fast and use their athleticism.
That was last year, and it’s behind us. Now there’s a fine balance that the team has to find. It’s related to the “identity” that Baron Davis talked about last year, over which he seemed to be locked in a major conflict with MDSr for the better part of the season, before he realized that a big problem with the Clippers lack of identity was his own lousy play and effort. BD said it was impossible for the team to gel and discover itself last year with the turmoil, injuries, and new players, but that this second year will be completely different. I believe that. The question is, what will that identity be?
So I guess my main point, which I’ve made before, is that the Clips have to aim at being one of the very best teams, the kind that plays very tough defense, that wins the rebounding battle in almost every game, a team that can get stops and take those rebounds and race up the floor and get early offense, go to the hoop, get good shots, setting an upbeat tempo on their own terms. This type of uptempo approach is different from the 7 Seconds Or Less, swinging gate-defense version of GSW/Nelson or the Suns/Knicks/D’antoni. There’s a thin chance that MDSr can guide a team that plays this way, and it suits some ideal version of the Clipper roster.
The trick, however, and the point I want to make, is what happens when it doesn’t work. That’s where stubborn, unimaginative, conservative to a fault MDSr kicks in. We know what it’s like, and we don’t like it. It can be excrutiating and demoralizing, bad decisions, bad matchups, bad basketball all piling up on itself. MDSr is going to have to really push himself, push his own approach and take risks and get out of his comfort zone. He loves to work hard and prepare and act like a professional, but he’s going to have to explore his own fears and take chances. He’s in a desperate situation, and he needs to act a bit like a desperate man. It will be good for him, and good for the team.
Its not happening…. It hasn’t happened in 14 (?) years of coaching. Why would Dunleavy start running now ? It would be like asking him to dress better, not his style.
And really even if he does start running, is he suited to coach a team that runs ? If Dunleavy switched jobs with NY for one game, would NY run half as well as under D’antoni ? I don’t think so…
I can just imagine the look on Dunleavy’s face as Al Harrington jacks up a 3 pointer, 2 seconds into the shot clock. Nate Robinsons face as Mike dunleavy is yelling at him for 3 minutes straight. Classic. I cannot wait for “GTFO Dunleavy Day”
Maybe someone can explain to me
why we had to get rid of TT and Mobley to give E Gordon the opportunity? Sorry, I don’t buy that argument. He should have been getting 30 mins / game regardless.
Im actually with Jax on this one
I see your point that Dunleavy was playing a veteran over Gordon, but Gordon didn’t do much to reserve a starting role BEFORE Mobley was there. Granted, it takes time for Gordon to become a starter, I think Gordon would have eventually fallen into the starting lineup if Dunleavy saw such potential( which apparently he did.) Still, I’m just saying I like Mobley> Randolph. Cause really, Tim Thomas never provided the Vlad player we needed. Mobley wasn’t Mobley anymore, but he was one cat who had his swagger! Randolph? Let’s just say Zbo hasn’t exactly provided the same placebo effect after BRAND*cough left.
BUT, there was one play that strikes me where Mobley should have been in instead of Gordon. (But MObley was gone by then.) The Chicago OT where Gordon accidently fouls Ben Gordon for a three. A rookie mistake, but still would have benefited for a game. But hey, I can’t complain. We got the #1 pick! (:
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
I guess what my developing thoughts on this are at this point is
that while it is true that EG needed to start or get over 30 mins a game, couldn’t this have been done without trading for Zbo ? Granted, we would probably have ended up with a few less wins (solidifying our hold on the no. 1 pick, but there are a number of reasons why we wouldn’t want to build a team around someone like Zbo.
Having said that, perhaps Cat would have suffered a serious heart injury had he stayed so maybe the trade was the best for everyone.
You're right
Gordon could have been inserted much more aggressively into the lineup, certainly, and the Zbo trade was contingent, not necessary. But that being said, I don’t think that Dunleavy would have done it. That’s probably your point, of course.
Dunleavy has done some good things, some bad things, and he really seemed to be throwing gasoline on the fire at times last year. As I said above, perhaps my biggest problem with him is the way that when he goes with something he sticks with it long after it has ceased making sense. He has infinite patience for old borderline-scrub vets, but it takes young or inexperienced players forever to get minutes.
With the Gordon-Mobley (Randolph) situation, the problem wasn’t Mobley. It was Ricky Davis (who I happened to see at Borders in Century City today, buying comic books and stuff for his kid). Ricky Davis should have gotten a 5-game shot before MDSr. started working Gordon into the lineup very aggressively. RDavis should have been given a very short window, and forced to earn his minutes virtually from the beginning. The transition with Mobley could have gone smoothly, with RDavis taken out of the equation. And Mobley is a player who would have come off the bench in good spirits. A reasonable plan would have been to say that Gordon would be the starter by game #20, if everything went well. Give RDavis 3-5 games to see if he can put up 15-20 pts and shoot 45%, instead of 20 games to shoot less than 35%. Don’t forget the horrible shooting droughts in the early season, when the Clips shot an extremely low percentage—RDavis, Mobley, TThomas, and BDavis all contributing.
The same thing happened with Reuben Patterson and Al Thornton the year before. Patterson got a slightly longer tryout than he deserved. But MDSr sent him packing fairly quickly, and Thornton blossomed right away.
So I guess it has been an imperfect system, but perhaps MDSr deserves some credit for completely getting rid of guys like Patterson, and maybe TThomas and Mobley can be added to that. One way to work back around to the benefits of the Randolph trade. But no, it didn’t have to happen for Gordon to play more and make it into the starting lineup early enough to do something like the damage he did this year.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 14, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions
well
before mobley got traded, he shot 43%. One gameshooting 55% and 7 steals.
I jus don’tthink mobley should have been in the deal. BUT, i will say the trade benefited Mobley. That’s the only reason I’m grateful for the trade, Mobley’s health( and lets pretend that we would have gotten the #1 pick anyways.)
Truth is, Mobley was my favorite player. Maybe that’s why I am so bias when it comes down to trading Mobley. But damn, I wish i were lucky enough to see Ricky Davis. Or any of the Clippers player.
BTW, anybody have an idea whether Novak is going to be back?
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
Ricky certainly is making his presence known.
You’re the second person to mention seeing Ricky around.
Stuck in limbo.
Novak
He’s a restricted FA so we should be able to match any deal he signs. I could see us matching any reasonable offer since we really dont have any shooters aside from EJ.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 15, 2009 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Because Coach Dunleavy had job security,
And Coach Dunleavy was never going to start rookie EJ over Mobley the “Blanket.” You or I might have seen it as an obvious move to make, but what do we know? In the real world where Dunleavy calls the shots and where “should have” is irrelevant to how actual decisions are made, the Blanket was an automatic starter. The only way that EJ was going to play 30 minutes a game was for Mobley to be traded or injured.
Give MDSr some credit for developing young talent on his roster.
Thornton and EJ got relatively few minutes the first month of the season and ended up playing big minutes toward the end while posting good- to-great rookie season numbers. They also tied or broke all-time rookie marks for scoring in a single game. D Jordan, a project coming in, got six blocks in a game and had a 20-rebound game. M Taylor had the most point in a Madison Square Garden game for a rookies since, uh, someone named Allen Iverson.
MDSr made the right calls to draft these players, he helped prepare them for the NBA game, and then gave them the minutes to play. I have confidence he will bring Griffin along at the right pace, too. The last thing we want to have Griffin try to do to much too soon and maybe find himself injured or losing confidence because he wasn’t ready to play major minutes. Better to take it slow for a month or two than come out of the gate to early. This formula has seemed to work for the other Clipper rookies.
really ? I think its a coincidence that Thornton and Gordon was developed.
1. Elton Brand’s Injury and
2. The trade of Mobley and injury of Ricky Davis.
I can hardly give credit to Dunleavy for that. The only reason DJ is played is the same on as above. If we had Camby and Kaman both healthy, would DJ have ever started ?
Remember, when Kaman came back from his foot injury and Camby from his ear, Dj got very few minutes. In fact I blame dunleavy for not playing them enough. It was apparent the season was over a looong time ago. Kaman was still playing like out of shape and horribly. There was no need to play Camby at all. DJ and Taylor should’ve gotten more minutes. We don’t need to see Kaman turnover the ball 5 times or try to do a reverse lefthanded layup off the backboard.
I still support the Z-bo trade
He brought scoring to a team that couldn’t score. He got rid of Tim Thomas. He got Gordon off the bench. He saved Cat Mobley’s life. And the Clippers STILL go the #1 pick.
F-Elton!
Nah
You can’t give someone credit for being lucky.
- is a fluke, we beat the odds.
Detecting the extent of Mobley’s heart problem (already a known cause to some degree) was a fluke as well.
EJ getting PT was an ancillary benefit, we don’t know for sure if would not have earned more minutes as the season went on. Given how many injuries we had its likely he would have played alot anyways once R Davis and B Davis went down.
Tim Thomas was off our books after this year anyways. He’s actually a useful trade piece now (heck he was traded again last year) for teams looking to cut costs.
While Zbo brought some scoring we were still the 27th team in the league (out of 30) so its hard to say how much better we did as a direct result of his acquisition. On the same token he also probably hurt our D (shaky as it was to begin with).
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Jun 15, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
All products is 30% of the market price of high quality in NBA jerseys
Hot NBA Laker jerseys No.24,7,17,16;LMB dodgers jerseys No.99,42,27;Soccer jerseys in Beckham,NFL jersey Ware NO.94,Allen NO.32 and No.21,52.
All products is 30% of the market price of high quality, Low prices, Warm service, Quick action!To know more details,Pls visite:
www.cheapplaza.com
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- LeBron threatened to beat up a heckler. You gotta problem with that, tough guy?
- Jason Whitlock apologizes for his unfunny Jeremy Lin comment on Twitter
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
