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The Myth of Too Many Big Men

 

As much as I'm good with the Do Nothing strategy in place, I'm getting frustrated at the poor analysis of the Clipper situation.  Given the fact that the Griffin pick is giving the team a lot attention, it would be nice of somebody would do some actual work and spend time thinking about the Clippers and their prospects.

Two things jump out at me.  They more than jump out--they're really starting to bug me.

1.  20-10 guys don't grow on trees.  You don't just give them away and moving them requires, as MDSr says, "basketball decisions" of a sophisticated kind.  So far, so good.  But no one is connecting the dots between all of the minutes missed by the Clippers primary big men the last 2 years and the fact that they can't have too many guys at the 4 and 5.  The Clippers gave substantial minutes 07-08 minutes to Josh Powell (1228) and Tim Thomas (1940), backup Paul Davis played 194 mins before his ACL, FElton played 274 minutes in 8 games, and Kaman 2.0 barely topped 2000 (2083) in 56 games.  Nick Fazekas (220), Aaron Williams (297) and Ruben Patterson (327) were low level scrubs we saw too much.  Last year Kaman played 921 mediocre minutes in 31 games, Camby made it to 1925 in 62 games, and Zbo 1369.  By contrast, FElton played 3077 and 3099 mins in 05/06 and 06/07.

It would be great if Blake Griffin is phenomenal and can get up towards 3000 minutes, but it's not going to happen for him as a rookie.  Eric Gordon managed 2654 last year in 78 games with a slow start.  Al Thornton played 2677 last year in 71 games, and he played 2158 as in 79 games as a rookie, a lot of those out of position at PF.

The moral of the story is that it would be great if Blake Griffin plays between 2200 and 2500 minutes.  Let's say, rounding off and counting overtimes, that there are 7800 minutes to go around between the two positions.  That means that the Clips have to get 5300 to 5600 minutes out of Kaman, Camby, and Randolph.  And that's not counting DeAndre Jordan or Steve Novak, let alone Brian Skinner.

So say that the Clips get 1500 minutes out of all three guys, and 1000 minutes go to DJordan.  Maybe one guy plays more, one guy plays less.  What happens to the logjam when one guy gets hurt?  Is there a problem?  Will we find ourselves saying, when Camby is out X number of games, and Kaman has been traded away, that the Clips are thin up front?

2.  Deandre Jordan is a major factor in the myth of too many big men, but it has been like he doesn't exist for the last two weeks.  I'm probably more outraged than I would be about this because of SP's excellent work comparing DJordan to Thabeet after the combine measurements came in.  DJordan's role is where the minutes get tricky, but it's almost like a bonus question, because literally no one is mentioning him, he didn't appear on any ESPN graphics, no one wondered where he might have gone in this draft if he had stayed in school for another year like Blake Griffin did, nada.  The only person who mentioned him is Blake Griffin, who knows him well from growing up the same age in the same region.  No one is talking, even in the new article about the Clips three years down the road with Gordon and Griffin, about how DJordan is also 20 and should complement Griffin extremely well, perhaps for a very long time.  The DJordan-Griffin-Gordon combo is one of the very best things about the Clippers' luck in the lottery.

DJordan could use an increase in minutes next season, but his growth curve seems to coincide well with the timetable of automatic departures, starting with Camby at the end of the coming season, and Randolph the year after.  There will be plenty of minutes for him soon enough.

He'll be hard to miss as part of the DJordan-Griffin-Thornton-Gordon-Taylor lineup at the summer league in a couple of weeks.  It should be funny to see people remember him all of a sudden.  The Clipper fortunes have been rising quickly and steadily, and even though it seems like they're getting a lot of attention, the analysts are missing a number of very important stories.  I'll add one more:  we can expect to see Eric Gordon playing a lot of point guard in the summer league.

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It just so happens that two teams dumped our precious 20/10 player. Btw Gordon is not a of

by andrewexd on Jun 26, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions  

I think you meant PG

fingers weren’t on the home keys, my friend.

And I think Gordon can play some point.

Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)

by mikey p on Jun 26, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

PG

Mardy was pretty effective there too.

Randolph seemed to contribute more wins to the Knicks when they had him, and to us when we got him last year. Hopefully he can build on that and get out of his own way while he’s here.

by ghost_ride on Jun 26, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry was on my iPod and it auto corrects pg to of. Still, I don’t see the point of playing Gordon at pg. Baron will be playing the majority of minutes at pg and I assume Taylor and Collins will play backup. Gordon is best playing off the ball imo.

by andrewexd on Jun 26, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are missing the point

It’s the summer league, the perfect time to experiment. If Baron gets hurt, wouldn’t it be nice for EJ to have at least a little experience running the point with a few of his teammates just in case we want him to hold down the fort for a few minutes there.

by ClipCat on Jun 26, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure in the summer league against other rookies and NBA hopefuls but him playing pg in the regular season is less than desirable. Why exactly do we want Gordon at point guard? Why not al Thornton or ricky davis ? The point is he’s not a pg. You wouldn’t ask ben Gordon or ray Allen to play pg….

by andrewexd on Jun 26, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I dont think I want to see

Gordon playing pg full time.. or even 20 mins of it anytime soon.

Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!

by JackduhSun on Jun 26, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great post Z

This notion of too many bigs is ridiculous. When has a team ever had too many bigs? Ask Houston if they wished they went into the Lakers series with too many bigs, or with 6’6" Chuck Hayes playing center.

The Clippers do need another solid wing, so trading one of the bigs to meet that need would make sense. But if the team stands pat and goes into the season as ts, it won’t be a catastrophe. Kaman and/or Camby are bound to miss games at some point. Plus, platooning them 24 minutes each is probably the best way to go with them if they do both stick around. There will be plenty of minutes to go around.

I do think it is important to get BG into the flow quickly, though. I’m for starting Griffin and bringing in Zach off the pine.

And yes, I think EJ at the point is workable in some sets. Believe it or not, AT did pretty well at the 2 in the VERY limited time he put in there.

There is no such thing as too many bigs.

Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)

by mikey p on Jun 26, 2009 5:04 PM PDT reply actions  

No ones saying we must get rid of one, but we have four guys tying up the bulk of our salary cap we could use on a small forward or a backup guard (ricky is not he answer). To top it off we know which big will get the least minutes

by andrewexd on Jun 26, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

not sure why mike taylor is not getting recognition as a point. the dude was on fire vs NY

by bigolbad on Jun 26, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Like the Macro view

If Kaman is as injured as he’s been over the last two years, and if we can manage to get some other minor injuries to Camby and the rest, we’ll be okay, right? Except, that’s kind of a morbid way to look at it. In fact, with guys playing less minutes, they’ll be less likely to be injured. Who would be most likely to sulk? The main guy who will have to take a pay cut in minutes, ZBO. If we’re winning, this situation will be a lot easier to manage.

Another possible reason for uproar will be if Griffin doesn’t get enough minutes, as EJ didn’t early in the season last year.

We could easily survive at the 4 & 5 if either Kaman or Camby are traded, it’s just that when you put all of your talent in 2 positions, you ultimately have too much talent sitting on the bench, you don’t give your team it’s best chance to win. If we do nothing however, which we may be forced to do, we will definitely be able to withstand injuries. We will be a less likely to make a bad trade, and maybe chemistry will be hurt some, though Kaman leaving may have the least impact in that regard, the only guy left from previous Clipper playoff glory.

The main thing is, if we keep them all we just have to run more, that’s the only way to use these guys, even if it does expose our backup options at the 1,2,&3 a bit.

by ghost_ride on Jun 26, 2009 5:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Hot Fire

Summer league is going to be fun.

by John R on Jun 26, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions  

i think we can afford to lose either kaman or camby.

we are going to trade one of them. zach comes off in 2 years anyway, so i really dont think its that big of a deal. zach played center for the knicks too… at least sort of seeing as david lee sort of plays center also.

so if we say got rid of kaman or camby, and we had blake and randolph in the game at the same time, its pretty easy to see them doing the same thing as david lee and randolph did in ny.

I think all of us would be pretty happy with 45 win season for a while until camby and randolph come off the cap. in 2-3 years we’ll have a more mature core of blake, deandre, al and eric, and i think that that is a pretty strong core just as a lot of the western conference “powers” get old (i.e. kobe will bel ike 33 by then with a roster full of bloated salaries like a 32 year old lamar)

by hans007 on Jun 26, 2009 5:31 PM PDT reply actions  

I think the problem is not too many big men but

alot of big while there are other gaping wholes in the roster. I think we can afford to drop one of our big men for a SF or back up pg. Also I don’t want having so many big men to get in the way of Griffin getting enough time or touches. That doesn’t mean he has to start right away but I think that he should be getting decent time immediately and it should increase over the season and he should be starting by mid or the end of December.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Jun 26, 2009 5:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed

Perhaps we’re really talking about: “The reality of too many oft-injured and unfocused big men”

by Jax on Jun 26, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah

I would not be upset if Kaman is traded, actually I rather trade Kaman then Zbo. Yes Zbo’s contract is bigger but he actually tried (although not has hard defense) and he tried to come back from injuries and personal issues while Kaman malingered for 1/2 the season. Like I have said before I think Kaman 2.0 only emerges when Kaman is the main player in the offense and I don’t think he can motivate himself to try hard if he is not the star.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Jun 26, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

kaman’s contract is longer. i’d rather get rid of him honestly.

i think if it came down to it, and some team was willing to take him, but wanted say camby’s expiring deal also its still probably something the clips should do.

if anything they could sign some random journey man, and i’m assumign they’d get something.

I mean a camby + kaman for luol deng and salary cap fodder trade, i could live with. we’d actaully be thin up front, but if anything it’d give deandre more playing time.

i mean a lineup of the follwoing

baron
eg
luol deng
griffin
randolph at center

probably would be not winning a TON of games (this assumes we have al back up the 3/4, zach at 4/5 , and deandre get 15 minutes backing up center as well), but i think in the grand scheme of it all it’d be worth it.

by hans007 on Jun 26, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

If that were the case I think

Griffin would be better at center then Zbo. Although in some cases where the other team has a quick PF you would switch it. I think Griffin is big enough and strong enough to be an undersized but still good center. But I think we should hold on to Camby tell trade deadline and trade him to a team either looking to clear some space or looking for a last piece.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Jun 26, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK, we don't have too many bigs.

If potential injuries are a concern and we don’t want to become too thin up-front, then we really should be concerned about how thin we are at the wings. Baron, Gordon, and AT all have had some significant injuries the past 18 months and without any remarkable back-up players to replace them.

by Jerdog on Jun 26, 2009 6:47 PM PDT reply actions  

We need two of the three centers

Camby, Kaman and DJordon one of them will and should go. I would keep Kaman, I still believe that he can be an elite center, and DJordon for his youth, length and rebounds.

Camby is a great citizen and player but he will head back to the east coast when his contract expires and I don’t want to be left with only one good center.

Looking back over Clipper history, I am nearly always excited when we have a player tied up for more than a couple of years.

If we can get a talented, long SF to mix in with Thorton we have a deep team all around.
Skinner, Randolph and Griffin can all back up at center
.

by Fdannymanning on Jun 26, 2009 8:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Zhiv's in love again...

Last year it was Nick Fazekas. Then when the bad men sent Nick away, he pouted for awhile until he found Steve Novak, only Steve had some bad holes in his game and Zhiv fell out of love. Zhiv was angry and crying all the time but then he found DeAndre. DeAndre Jordan? DeAndre might also have a few flaws but he’s really really tall… and has all that extra-ordinary upside. This time, Zhiv’s pretty sure it’s forever.

by swamigusto on Jun 26, 2009 8:39 PM PDT reply actions  

So... Zhiv, does the ring you got for DeAndre have a diamond?

I honestly think it would be better if DeAndre wore the 2010 NBA Champion Ring instead of Zhiv’s diamond one. Espescially cause that is illegal in California.

http://lucasnbablog.blogspot.com/

by LJ Hann on Jun 26, 2009 9:29 PM PDT reply actions  

You're right and also...

I agree with a lot of what you said particularly The Young Clipper and DeAndre Jordan. We have a serious group of guys there and they have great personalities which means great spirit which is great for the Clippers (If Dunleavy who’s a stiff doesn’t snuff it out). The reason the absent chatter about all these terrific young Clippers and the great Vets they’ve stockpiled is that most of the writers and fans around the country pay absolutely no attention to the Clippers. They BS about them because they must seem to know about every team. I once told Vescey that he was full of crap with a rumor that Shaq was signing with the Clips and he accused me of being put up to it by Stephan A. Smith & Mitch Lawrence, I don’t know any of them. Around the country the Clippers are a joke, Simmons isn’t wrong. The last two years they stunk out the joint mainly because of injury but nobody ever mentions that cause to them the Clippers alway stink. One less team to do homework about. This is a really great group of young players to me the real question is Dunleavy. He picked them, I give him that, he also picked Korolev and I still can’t understand that other then Dunleavy’s huge ego. He is now a terrible coach. He doesn’t get “it”. Maybe he knows too much. He is why Elton left (not that it worked for him) because he didn’t want to play for Mike Dunleavy and Dunleavy knew it. He blew a lot of games last year. The number of times that his outmatched team had a run going, catching up or pushing ahead he’d call a Time Out, maybe needed. He’d make an adjustment and give them some “motivation” or whatever. When play started again the rally was over and the Clips were flat and it was over. It happened too many times to blame anyone but the Coach. He turned them off. Now he has the Prize in the package but he stinks with rookies and we wouldn’t have known what we do about Gordon, Taylor or Jordan or Thornton the year before if it wasn’t for injuries. Mike Dunleavy does not play Rookies (unless forced by fate). Thursday they interviewed him on ESPN after he picked the consensus #1 Draft Player in the NBA (BTW he lost reportedly at least 40% of his fan base and season ticket-holders) pathetic, no excitement, no pleasure, no pride, no promo. A fool. And this guy will coach this hot hand of young players and inspire them to do or die for good old Donald T. Sterling. Word is they were so excited to have the first pick and all the appropriate media coverage (and usually if they had their drothers the sports writers don’t or wouldn’t even mention much less say anything nice about the Clips) they serve them for the Draft Day Coverage Chicken Wing and Taco Chips. How to win friend and influence people. What schmucks. Let us pray for a healthy, fun and successful 2009-10 Season.

by Plus15 on Jun 26, 2009 9:38 PM PDT reply actions  

Well stated Zhiv as always

A little perspective is needed when evaluating our players. Let’s be thankful our last three 1st rounders weren’t Swift, Petro and Sene, or we didn’t tie up our cap space trading for Gana Diop and Nazr Mohammed.

Watching Mr. Flippy doink easy shots may be incredibly frustrating at times. No man should ever miss so much time with the flu. Some of his quotes and actions are not PC to fans who would give anything just to have his seat on the bench. He’s different so that makes him a target. But I like the fact that Kaman isn’t a clone of every other NBA player. I’ll take his eccentricities any day over the gloom of enduring an Olowokandi or a Benjamin or the frustration of watching Stanley Roberts eat himself out of a career.

To add to the myth debunking, a team’s talent does not need to be perfectly balanced in order to win. Rarely are even the best teams balanced. Is an aging Derek Fisher an acceptable starting PG for a championship team? Did Orlando really make the finals without a true power forward? Both teams made the most of the talent they had, and they did not let their weaknesses become excuses for failure.

With a bit of creativity, all the Clippers’ bigs will get their chance to shine. Maybe Dunleavy needs them all to avoid the temptation of running them into the ground as he did to Camby last December and early January when he averaged over 38 minutes a game. Replace that criminal neglect and mismanagement with fewer minutes per game and the Shaq treatment for both Camby and Kaman. Suddenly finding minutes for DJ isn’t difficult. Blake is our future star, but he hasn’t played an 82 game season yet. He and Randolph can split 48 minutes a game, and we will have one of the best frontcourts in Clipper history. Maybe they’ll even stay healthy enough so 3 or 4 of them can be counted on to play most nights.

After all the horrendous basketball the Clippers have given us the last two seasons, it seems many of us are focused only on fixing the perceived problems while discounting the strengths. Maybe we’re right not to give in to the same optimism of last year, but the pendulum has swung too far.

The Clippers have the talent to challenge anyone. They will succeed to the extent that they can coalesce into an organized unit that plays to its strengths. With last year’s debacle and our coach’s past stubborn reluctance to innovate, I have no illusion everything is about to magically fall into place. Still, all the puzzle pieces we need are in the box right now.

by ClipCat on Jun 26, 2009 11:06 PM PDT reply actions  

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