Breaking Down the Roster of the 09-10 Clippers
I've resisted doing one of these roster break downs to this point, tempting as they are. After all, the things I wrote about the roster last spring were so ludicrously irrelevant by the time the season rolled around as to be laughable in retrospect. But with the draft finally in our rear view mirror, and with 'stability' seemingly a watchword of the Clippers braintrust at this point, it appears that we're relatively safe assuming that a large portion of the roster is set.
In fact, assuming Brian Skinner exercises his option (and frankly, I can't imagine why he wouldn't), the Clippers already have twelve players under contract (that's counting Blake Griffin's impending rookie deal). That's a roster right there. MDsr has shown a strong and consistent preference for entering the regular season with no more than 14 players under contract, so there are likely only two open spots at this point - that's barring trades, though of course at least trade is in truth pretty likely. But ignoring trades, let's see what we've got, from big to small.
Center - Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, DeAndre Jordan. Kaman is signed for 3/$34M, Camby for one more season for about $9M (if you include his incentives) and Jordan for 2/$1.6M.
Power Forward - Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin, Brian Skinner. Randolph has 2/$33M left, Griffin will soon be signed to a 4 year rookie deal, and Skinner will likely exercise his option for the second year of his veteran's minimum deal.
These two positions are of course where most of the discussion has focused lately, given the amount of salary tied up there, with the number one draft pick joining the stable. Now, I won't disagree with Citizen Zhiv regarding the Myth of Too Many Bigs - but could we also agree that we exit mythology and enter reality when we talk about TOO MUCH SALARY tied up in bigs? The good news there is that given the fact that it's almost impossible to shed contracts immediately, the key salary number is really NEXT summer's. By then, all other things being equal, Camby's contract will have expired, and Randolph will be a one year contract that will become easier to move. So while the Clippers certainly have a lot of salary tied up at the four and five positions, it's really not TOO MUCH when you take the longer view.
Of course, there are still questions of who starts, and how much do guys play. I see the four big bigs in pairs. As of now, Randolph and Kaman are the more potent offensive players, each capable of forcing a double team in MDsr's post centric sets, while Camby and Griffin are more defensive and rebounding presences (Griffin's offense will come, but as a rookie he may not be a go to guy.) I think you have to start a scorer with a defender in order to balance the line. I see Randolph and Camby as the starters, with Griffin and Kaman coming off the bench, but it could as easily be Griffin and Kaman starting. Playing time (and egos) will no doubt be an issue if no one is moved and no trades are made - but I think Zhiv is saying "Yes, by all means let's have too many healthy bigs this season - that's a problem we'd love to have." DeAndre Jordan also needs some playing time to continue his development, though he may only see spot duty if everyone else is healthy. Hopefully Skinner is reduced to spot duty and emergency backup status, if indeed he is on the team.
Small Forward - Al Thornton, Mardy Collins, Ricky Davis. Thornton has 2/$6.7M left on his rookie deal, Collins has one year left at $1.8M, and Ricky Davis recently exercised his one year option for almost $2.5.
At small forward, let's first recognize that Ricky Davis is likely only good as $2.5M worth of trade filler. His knee tendinitis rendered him completely useless last season, even when it allowed him on the floor, and it turns out he didn't get any younger over the summer. That leaves Thornton and Collins. Thornton was the starter last season before he got hurt near the end, and while his all around game leaves much to be desired, he is a more than adequate scorer. One can only hope that he'll start 'getting' a few more things (like rebounding and defensive rotations) in his third NBA season. Collins on the other hand is an enigma. A throw in for the Randolph trade, he had some great games as a Clipper, including a memorable performance in the team's biggest win of the season against the Celtics. But he's a pretty dreadful shooter, and not a great defender either. He is quite useful to have on a roster certainly, since he can play anywhere from the one to the three.
Shooting Guard - Eric Gordon. EJ has three more seasons on his rookie contract.
Point Guard - Baron Davis and Mike Taylor. Baron has the longest contract on the team, 4/$54M. Taylor has 2/$1.5M (not guaranteed, though it would be very surprising if he wasn't asked to stick around at least one more season).
Notice anything about the Shooting Guard spot? That's right, there's only one name on the list. Fortunately, it's a really good name, arguably the team's best player. But as of this instant, there's no clear back up for Eric Gordon. Ricky Davis is still around, but I'd rather imagine that he's not. That leaves the Clippers making due with Davis or Taylor or Collins playing out of position at the two when Gordon is on the bench (Collins is one of those rare players who is adequate at the one or the three, but a pretty big disaster at shooting guard since, well, he can't shoot).
So now we begin to see some of the real-politick of Too Many Bigs - it often leads directly to 'too few smalls', especially when the artist formerly known as Ricky Buckets is squatting on a roster spot.
The Clippers also have three free agents this off-season - Steve Novak, Fred Jones and Alex Acker. We've already counted 12 contracts on the roster, and we know that MDsr is likely going to enter the season with 14 players under contract. So there's not room for all of them. Acker is a long shot at best, although in many ways he's what they need - a versatile guard with some size and the ability to defend. Jones played very well for the Clippers and is a logical choice to join the backcourt. And Novak is arguably the best pure shooter in the league - he may be one-dimensional, but it's an important dimension, and he is unbelievable good at it. But if indeed the Clippers re-sign Jones and Novak and call it a roster, the team remains dangerously thin at the guard positions (even with Jones) and not much better off at the small forward. For what it's worth, Novak and Acker are restricted, while Jones is unrestricted.
A big man trade is still a pretty good possibility before training camp, even if the team is trying to be patient on that front. The right deal would go a long way toward balancing the roster. As we've said many times, a 'glue guy' on the wing would be ideal. Someone who can play the two or the three, and has the size to step in for Eric Gordon against the Kobe Bryants of the NBA. Someone who is first and foremost a solid perimeter defender. It remains to be seen if the Clippers can find that person, either via a trade or via free agency. Of course, barring a trade, signing an outside free agent would likely banish either Jones or Novak from the team.
There are a couple of other options for creating some roster flexibility. Neither Skinner nor Ricky Davis really fits on this team at this point so both are candidates to be waived. However, they each have value as inclusions in trades at this point, so it is not to be undertaken lightly.
3 recs |
49 comments
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Comments
We don’t need Brian Skinner and Ricky Davis should be included in a trade bait. Aside from that, I would love to give Fred Jones a second chance and obviously Novak backing up.
Mardy Collins would be a player I usually would not use. Like Steve said, his defense is good, but it’s just not as polished as some people give him credit for. Stopping Paul Pierce was great, but that was probably the only memoriable thing about Collins in a Clippers uniform.
I will laugh though if Steve’s roster prediction is wrong again. (: (Probably won’t happen) But if rumors are right, seems like Clippers really are trying to trade away one of their bigs( Memphis & Randolph.)
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
Hey Steve,
Wouldn’t a Clippers-Wizards trade make so much sense? The Washington Wizards recent trade has given them a logjam in the backcourt and depleted their team in the front court. Wouldn’t they have an interest in one of the Clippers bigs? Is there any chance that you could do a cross blog with the writers of "Bullets Forever", and possibly kick the tires on trade proposals between the two clubs to see if they could help each other ease their logjams.
Here are some expendable players from their roster who i think can help the Clippers:
Dominic McGuire: A defensive nice "utility man": Coming out of college he was actually compared to Travis Ariza. He probably won’t be that good but he is the type of "glue guy" that could balance the Clippers starting five.
Nick Young: A local guy who would be a great backup to Eric Gordon and who would more then likely welcome a homecoming.
Mike James: Expiring contract who is also a veteran point guard that the Clippers are seeking.
Interesting...
I haven’t looked too closely at the Wizards’ lineup post Minny trade. I’d definitely consider working with pradamaster and jake the snake to see what makes sense – but I hate those guys. (JK)
What’s the thinking on Brendan Haywood at this point? Two seasons ago, his PER was better than Kaman’s. Are you sure you want another high paid big?
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
LOL Travis Ariza
Any relation to Trevor Ariza?
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
You guys want free roster space?
The Mavs have Stackhouse, with $7.5 Mil but only 2 Mil guarenteed. So, I think Skinner, Davis, and DeAndre Jordan for Stackhouse plus cash incentives (The 2 Mil for buyout.) This trade is for the Mavs because they need a center to replace Dampier (who sucks), the Clips get a few free roster space plus less salary. The Mavs will then waive Davis or Skinner, hopefully Davis if this trade happens.
No one's giving up DeAndre Jordan....
Especially for Stackhouse who is 35 going on 90 and can’t shoot.
The point for Stackhouse
is to get rid of unwanted veterans and salary relief if for a little. If DeAndre Jordan busts an ACL, he’s worthless to the Clips!
Nice try...
Clippers can waive Skinner and Davis, and still have Jordan. So this ‘trade’ really amounts to a money savings – which no one on this blog is interested in.
Besides, Skinner and Davis can be packaged in trades that actually HELP the Clippers.
But like I said, nice try.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey look!
Some one trying to get DeAndre Jordan from the Clippers for free! Somebody outside of Clipperdom talking about him—it’s typical, it’s not much, but it’s a start.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 27, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
They know about him in TX
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Skinner has an option?
Hoops Hype shows a one year deal for Skinner, with no player or team option. Washington Post is also reporting that Skinner is a Free Agent.
ShamSports and Hoopsworld have him with a player option at 1.3M
Those guys are both pretty reliable.
He has an option...
I noticed that it was not consistently reported, but he has an option for this season.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I read he is considering not using it
Because of the logjam in the frontcourt
http://lucasnbablog.blogspot.com/
He would just need a better offer
But that could be tough to find.
Eric Pincus...
seemed to think there was a question about him using his optoin… but in this economy, I’m just not convinced another team is going to pay him $1.3M. He could really regret it.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
But he wants minutes.
I’m sure he can retire comfterably in 1-2 years as it is.
http://lucasnbablog.blogspot.com/
Veterans minimum?
What’s the veterans minimum right now? It’s got to be pretty close to what he’s scheduled to make next year. Supposedly Skinner hated the way Dunleavy used him last year. I really think there’s a good chance that he opts out.
Same
His LAC deal is for vet’s min, so if he can get that elsewhere, he’s not out any money. But can he get it?
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Mike Taylor at the point? Novak notes...
Nah… the Clippers really need a real backup point guard. Even if Baron comes back and regains some form, he’s still injury prone. Your point guards are then Mike Taylor, Mardy Collins and uh… EJ? Gulp. I like Fred Jones better than any of those guys at point and he’s not a #1 either (nevermind that he’s a free agent).
It doesn’t add up. Clippers need to trade a big and bring in two new guys, a point guard and a small forward. If they can’t sign Fred Jones they might need another sg as well.
But even with a trade the numbers still don’t work. I think you’ve got to get rid of RDavis, Mike Taylor, or Steve Novak. I don’t think management buys out Ricky, so Taylor or Novak have to go. My problem with Novak is not so much his defense (which is execrable), but that he doesn’t really have a position. He’s not quick, he can’t drive, he can’t pass, and he has no handle so he can’t play the 1, 2, or the 3. He’s has no inside game and can’t rebound so he can’t play the 4 or the 5. He’s a perfect sixth man… if you were allowed to play six men at the same time. He’s a six, but not a sixth man.
Of course Novak is useful… when you need to come back from 20 down or when you want to flood the floor with shooters. Can he develop into something more than that? Probably not.
Mike Taylor’s useful too… he’s a great change of pace… you throw him in a game where you’re down by ten and he runs around like a madman and does five good things in a row… of course you have to get him out of there before he does five bad things in a row but that’s okay. Can he develop into a real point guard? Probably not.
Of course this might not be a problem… because if someone makes Novak an offer over a million or so, Clips won’t (and shouldn’t) match.
by swamigusto on Jun 27, 2009 8:58 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Where Novak would be usefull
If Griffin becomes as dominant a big man as we think he could be then he will require a double team. And from what we saw he is a very good passer, which means when the double team comes Novak would be waiting outside the arc and Griffin would pass it to him then it would be an easy bingo for Novak. Also we could run our fast break like Orlando and have the rest of the team run and fake a lay up and then pass it to Novak for a wide open three. But the problem is that we can’t have two defensive liabilities on the floor at the same time (Zbo and Novak) so he would have to be on the floor when Zbo isn’t.
In Gordon we trust
One additional note on Novak...
According to Eric Pincus the Clips have extended him the qualifying offer. Doesn’t mean they are certain to resign him, but it does insist they may be working in that direction. I learned this from following Eric Pincus on Twitter (plug). The dude is well informed within the NBA.
Oh yeah....
I also learned last week from his Tweets that Skinner asked for one more week to make his decision on the player option. I believe he has until July 1st.
Pincus is the man
The Clippers have to extend the qualifying offer in order to secure their right of first refusal on Novak as an RFA. Plus, the QO is for next to nothing, and since the Clippers are over the cap, there’s no downside to extending the QO since they only have the cap exceptions to work with anyway.
What I’m saying is, extending the QO is a no-brainer, and doesn’t mean much if anything. I suppose it means that they haven’t written off Novak completely, but assuming another team is willing to pay him more than the minimum, the Clippers will have a decision to make on him yet.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Taylor/Novak
I’m still quite intrigued with Taylor. He does things you can’t teach – and of course he needs to get better at staying under control, which you can teach. I think he can be a terrific back up point guard with reasonable improvement – I don’t think I’m talking about miracles here.
Novak on offense isn’t really a problem. He’s a classic catch and shoot guy, among the best I’ve ever seen. So you run him off double stacks to get him shots. He’s Ray Allen or Reggie Miller if you can get him some space. No, he can’t put the ball on the deck and blow by the close out like other guys, but that’s why he’s not an all star. He’s still Steve Novak after all. But his position on offense is almost irrelevant. If you put him at the four and make an opposition big chase him across those screens, so much the better. He just torched Kevin Love last season.
Of course, Love torched him on the other end. What MDsr did (which was smart) was to put Novak on the offensive ciphers. Przybilla, Ben Wallace, etc. It’s a good strategy if one of those guys is in the game, but Novak still has to work on boxing out in those situations.
Novak is a great asset on a roster. He got very few minutes with Houston two seasons ago – and hit at least one game winning three. But he may be a luxury the Clippers can’t afford – less from a monetary standpoint (depending on what offers he gets) than from a roster spot standpoint. I fear you may be correct that they need 3 players not currently signed (one of whom could be Fred Jones).
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Butbutbut...
I see Novak as a bigger mess on defense than you. He needs to be protected by at least three good defenders and a rebounder. Only the current Clip team, those guys don’t exist.
And do you see Mike Taylor as a guy who can start 5 to 20 games. Even a healthy Baron Davis only plays 60 games. Mike Taylor is your best backup THIS year?
Look, I’d like to hang onto both guys, but… it just doesn’t work. You’ve got to get rid of at least one big… and Ricky too.
The problem with Novak
Is that he can’t play the three. That would help his cause, and help the Clippers.
I’m not sure why he can’t do whatever it is that Mike Dunleavy Jr. does, but he can’t. Too bad. He could get lost in the shuffle.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 27, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Bigs Rotation
20-24 minutes for all, and scraps for DeAndre?
It’s amazing how much fallout there was when we had to rotate Camby, Kaman, & Randolph for the two spots, but now we have five, including a #1 draft pick and more people seem cool with it than ever. Who knows, maybe it could work to start the season with Blake getting his feet wet, and watching the vets do their thing. Bottom line here is that we have to wait for the right deal or risk not getting enough for one of these assets.
Could definitely understand limiting minutes for Kaman & Camby, due to age in Camby’s case, and fragility in Kaman’s. Would 28-30 minutes be enough for Randolph & Griffin, and would 18-20 be enough for Camby & Kaman? If DeAndre continues to come along, he’ll be deserving some time as well. There are things to like about all five of these guys, but the Clippers might be forced to let this go into the season as is, and hope that Kaman can increase his stock for a potential trade, because he seems to fit in the least right now. Of course, that could all change if Kaman 2.5 comes out guns blazing. Maybe then, we’d want to keep him, and we’ve heard Griffin publicly state that he likes Kaman’s game. It’s a dificult situation.
Are we cool with it?
Well, Citizen Zhiv is. I wouldn’t say I am. But of course we don’t matter – it’s MDsr who’s calling the shots. What I’m hearing is that they’ll try to make a move before training camp. After all the roster changes last season, they don’t want to have mid-season turmoil this time around. So even if Camby’s value might possibly go up around the deadline, the preference is to make a move before Sept. Stay tuned.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I am and I'm not
I think SP summed up my point very clearly, and it simply amounts to the idea that the Clippers could and have had much worse problems than too many healthy, available, talented big men. And in a slightly different way SP adds the point I was trying to make about the expiration dates on these guys being a factor, starting with Camby.
My main purpose in exploring the myth was to think of the surplus as taking out extra injury insurance after the devastation of the last two seasons. If Camby, Randolph, or Kaman sits too much because Griffin and one or two of those three guys is having a great season, that would be fantastic.
But that being said, if the Clips can make a deal for the right guy and balance out the roster a bit, I’m all for it. It’s all about the proper value of their assets, and getting the right return.
by citizen zhiv on Jun 27, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Houston Trade?
From what i remember Yao is the only real center for the rockets the rest of the team is around 6-10 and below. Mutumbo is gone now leaving the backup center for Scola or Landry. So what i was thinking was anyone Zach, Kaman, or Camby would be ideal for the Rockets.
Now on the Rockets they just got Chase Budinger 6-7 F, Sergio Llull 6-3 G, and Jermaine Taylor 6-4 G, i think they have to many Small/Power Forwards to be able to split the time if we could trade them a big for a Forward it would be great! I would love to have Shane Battier on the team i would say Ron Artest is a decent choice although he’s getting old
Houston's not trading Shane or Ron
They are in “win now” mode. It’s just not happening. That said, I’m sure they would have interest in Kaman.
But how are they gonna win now?
Without a solid backup C they will not be able to compete. When Yao is tired who are they going to look to? Scola is a decent player but he will not be able to score on or defend true centers effectively
by civicdude590 on Jun 28, 2009 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions
But I would assume
that they don’t plan to trade away such a large contributor such as Shane Battier for center that’s going to backup Yao.
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
But if Yao is out all season
or even a good chunk of it, Houston is looking for a C. Marcus Camby Goes in, starts for 40-60 games, backs up when Ming comes back, and is off the Rocket’s books next seasoin.
http://lucasnbablog.blogspot.com/
Keep in mind that
statment was made before news of Yao being hurt.
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
The second rounders...
Budinger, Llull and Taylor are all flyers – they didn’t buy those picks to make anyone on their roster expendable. They’re hoping one of them pans out, but still doesn’t mean anything about Battier or Artest.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey Steve,
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm
Taking a look at the Washington Wizards salaries, it doesn’t seem that Brendon Haywood would have to be included in a Clippers-Wizards trade. Mike James expiring contract and a few young wing players could work.
Here’s my trade proposal: Chris Kaman for Mike James, Dominic McGuire, and Nick Young.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine
Wizards Depth Chart:
Kaman/Haywood/McGee
Jamison/Blatche/Mcgee
Butler/Miller
Stevenson/Foye
Arenas/Crittenton
Clippers Depth Chart-
Camby/Jordan/Skinner
Randolph/Griffin/
Thornton/McGuire/Davis
Gordon/Young/Collins
Davis/M. James/Taylor
You're dreaming
Kaman would already be gone if the Clippers were willing to give him away for that bunch of castoffs. Too bad for you, but you’re one year too late to pick up Marcus Camby.
Kaman and Haywood
My point on that is, I’m not sure everyone in DC would agree that Kaman would be an upgrade over Haywood. So I just don’t think a deal is happening. Clippers will value him higher than the deal you’ve proposed, and Wiz won’t value you him high enough to make a much richer offer.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jun 27, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
potential loss
..i think we may lose Fred Jones to a team like Orlando.
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