Free Agent Follies Set to Begin

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2009 4:04 PM PDT

Carlos Boozer becomes the first domino, electing to take the one-year money and stay in Utah. This makes life a little more difficult for the Jazz, as Paul Milsap is expected to get a sizable offer from OKC, and they also have to deal with Okur. But what prompted Boozer's decision (he doesn't want to make less money), and what does it mean for the other free agents who are a few hours away from turning the ignition key?

In LA, a good test for the basketball knowledge of Laker fans is their awareness of the free agent situation and luxury tax consequences on Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom. As bitter Clipper fans, we probably have 10 times the financial awareness of the average denizen of Lakerdom. Of course Laker fan, enjoying champion status for the 15th time, has every reason to be optimistic and to believe that things will work out. It's the Lakers! And so we see statements about how the Lakers made $6 million by selling draft picks, which will certainly help them sign their free agents. That 6 million, of course, should pay for 20-30 games of one season from Lamar Odom, at a very hopeful discount rate of 10m/yr, doubled by the luxury tax. It's one thing to pay Zbo 18 million when you don't need him, but can you imagine contemplating a 60 or 70 million dollar deal for Odom that will cost you twice that amount--and that's after you sign Ariza. Does Boozer's decision mean that Detroit, OKC, or Memphis is more likely to make a generous offer to LO or Ariza?

What a difference a year makes. Oy. I can't even think about last summer, and how it turned into last year. If the pain is going to come this year, at least it will be a new version.

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Last year the surprise was Baron Davis opting out of $17M

This year it’s Boozer NOT opting out. Detroit has money to spend. Booze seemed like a good fit. And the Jazz are ready to move on with Millsap as the PF of the future. Boozer has a funny way of screwing teams. The Jazz have to watch one of Millsap or Okur walk away because of Boozer’s decision to stay for one year (he certainly won’t re-sign with the Jazz next year, especially with all of the money that will be available next year).

This year lacks the drama of last year from the Clippers perspective, thats for sure.

Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)

by mikey p on Jun 30, 2009 4:25 PM PDT reply actions

Must be demoralizing

Can’t be good for team chemistry, unless Boozer was able to indicate privately that he was probably going to come back, and the team should be prepared for that outcome. Worth remembering that it’s just one year, and the Jazz can match any offer that OKC or anybody else gives Milsap. The potential tax implications are miniscule compared to what the Lakers are faced with.

I put this up so we would have a thread to follow these developments—like the fact that Kobe didn’t opt out—, but I’m still hoping that SP might break it all down for us.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey, there it is!

I knew I was being hasty.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2009 4:44 PM PDT reply actions

Odumb isn't getting $60-70 mil

There’s no chance. The guy comes off the bench for them and they clearly value Ariza more. There isn’t a team in the league that will give Odumb that kind of money. The Lakers don’t need to bid against themselves and they won’t.

I see them offering both Ariza and Odumb each contracts that just beat out the MLE. The teams with cap space aren’t going after either of those guys for more than that.

by madglove on Jun 30, 2009 5:12 PM PDT reply actions

Really?

Isn’t LO worth 5yrs/60 mil? 70 might be a stretch. But I don’t think he signs for 5/40—and that’s what Ariza is going to try to get.

Maybe you know better than I do MG, but I think LO is a valuable, viable player on a lot of teams. On a team with Kobe Bryant, he’s an amazing luxury item. The only reason he comes off the bench is because they have Gasol, Bynum, and Ariza, and he would start for the majority of teams in the league. He’s also proven that he’s a credible PF, although he can also play SF, and he might do a lot more things for a team that doesn’t have Kobe Bryant taking shots and holding the ball.

I guess the big question is how he fits on teams like Detroit, OKC, and Memphis, which have money. If you’re OKC, would you rather pay Milsap—who is restricted—or LO? They have Jeff Green, but if they’re going after Milsap, why not LO? Odom won’t take shots away from Durant, Westbrook, or Harden

Don’t forget that Maggs got 5/50 last year, and that’s just one example. Ariza is the prototypical player who is overpaid after a great playoff run, but my own sense is that LO is perceived as a much more productive, highly-valued player. If he’s “Odumb”—and I’m not forgetting any of the frustrations of his Clipper tenure—his misfortune is only the fact that he’s a UFA in a year when teams don’t have money or aren’t spending it.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Yea I'm speaking more to the market

There just aren’t a lot of teams out there who have money this summer, and even less who are going to offer it to a guy like LO who has a history of underachieving.

OKC would WAY rather have a bruiser inside than another lanky forward. They need a big time rebounder to collect Durant’s rebounds. Plus, they’re going to be very thrifty given that they’ll have to pay Durant and Green pretty soon. Detroit? Is LO better than Prince? Even if he was, they have Prince locked in. Memphis? They’re looking for a post presence (as evidenced by their attempt to get ZBo.

In this market, in this economy, I don’t see LO getting anywhere near 60-70 mil. Plus, the Lakers can’t risk offending Ariza, who they really want to keep. If you’re Ariza and Odumb is getting the bigger deal, aren’t you naturally going to think “uh…I’m the starter in front of him…I deserve more”? I know that’s what his agent will say.

That’s why the Lakers will have to give them pretty close to the same. Again, I’m not disagreeing with you about their respective abilities or even worth. Just the way the market is this summer.

by madglove on Jun 30, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Must Say

Your arguments are usually more sophisticated, mg, but I can understand the sentiment behind intense skepticism of the value of former Clipper Lamar Odom. He burned Clip fans, and he’s been flaky for a long time, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t a talented player, and things have evolved.

LO now has a ring and lots of playoff experience. Just because Ariza played well doesn’t mean that people around the league don’t realize what Odom can do. Ariza knows it too, and he knows that he’s the starter because of “Glue Guy” theory, while LO plays more minutes, is more productive, they’re on the floor together in crunch time when Andrew Bynum is nowhere to be found, and LO would be a starter on virtually every team in the league, none of which has a guy named Kobe on it. The difference between him and Prince is that he can play PF easily, he’s versatile and a more complete player in lots of ways than the Piston PF from their glory days, Rasheed Wallace. LO and Prince would be an awesome pair of southpaws.

I like the suggestion below that the Lakers try to trade Bynum, that’s intriguing and it would be a surprise. But the Gasol-Bynum-LO-Kobe combination is what makes the Lakers a superteam, when you add Ariza. My guess is that they’ll count on Bynum’s development—he’s an extremely young player, and quite promising—and keep Ariza because he’s cheaper and a Glue Guy, and they’ll take their chances without LO.

But I think LO is worth real money. Just because he wasn’t starting on the Lakers doesn’t mean he won’t get more than Ariza.

by citizen zhiv on Jun 30, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll try to be more sophisticated than madglove

Lamar’s value isn’t as high as it could be because he doesn’t have the emotional makeup to be a go to guy every night. He knows that, the Lakers know that, and the league knows that.

by Jax on Jul 2, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Ariza is the "starter" over Odom

Don’t get it wrong, Ariza is the starter because he is the “glue” guy. The Lakers starting lineup doesn’t need another scoring threat…they need a glue guy. If both their contracts were the same and they demanded an equal amount, I’m pretty sure Lakers would take Odom.

Thing is…Odom is more expensive…for a reason.

He’s the more complete player.

by Newton Pham on Jul 1, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't feel sorry fot the Lakers

They have consistently led with their hearts and not their brains in salary negotiations. Sasha Vujacic was terrible this year after signing a big contract, Luke Walton is a marginal player with a long term deal, the Bynum deal happened too fast, Vlad Radmonovic for Adam Morrison/Shannon Brown was helpful because it got rid of Vlad’s last two years but they still have to pay Adam Morrison almost $7 million next year!
Zhiv’s right, Odom’s not taking $6M, he’s gonna get a better offer elsewhere, closer to ten. And why would Ariza settle for a “little better than the MLE”? Nope. I’m thinking 8 to 10M for him too. So, best case, (according to my calculations) their payroll is $83M BEFORE the tax. WOW! They could be close to a hundred million in salary! That’s Knick’s territory, only Jerry Buss doesn’t have THAT much cash. The Lakers are his only business.
Of course, there is a way out. With Vujacic, Morrison, and Walton essentially untradeable pieces the Lakers best move right now might be dumping Andrew Bynum… put him into a package with Morrison or someone else and kiss him goodbye. Or just suck it up and pay the tax… and not just a little tax… a lot of tax.
If Ariza and Odom catch the interest of other teams (Ariza certainly will)… the Lakers have no way out… someone’s gotta go.

by John Raffo on Jun 30, 2009 6:44 PM PDT reply actions

Lakers...

It was very interesting that Kobe didn’t ETO this year. One can make the argument that the Market was not competitive enough to illicit a max contract for the soon to be 31 year old, I make the assumption that he will ETO next year to acquire the max contract. Is Kobe cocky enough to think that the Lakers would not make a run for LeBron or DWade?

by sqrebck on Jun 30, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions

from what I understand

he is a FA next year and doesn’t need to ETO. I think this season is his chance to ETO but after winning a championship I don’t see that happening.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Jun 30, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions

It wasn’t long ago that Kobe Bryant reportedly wanted out of Los Angeles. He’s not going anywhere now.

Fresh off winning the championship, the Lakers guard decided not to exercise an early termination option in his contract and will return for the 2009-10 season, a league source told ESPN.com’s Chad Ford.

Bryant is scheduled to make $23 million next season by not opting out. He also has a player option to opt out of his contract in the 2010-11 season. The Lakers will work with Bryant over the summer and fall to hammer out a new, long-term extension, according to the source.

by sqrebck on Jun 30, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Kobe is expected to sign an extension.

Bryant is expected to sign a three-year extension on top of his existing two-year contract at some point in July. Bryant will make a guaranteed $47.8 million over the next two years and earn an estimated $85 million or more with his three-year extension.

It would be hard for me to justify paying 34/35/36 year old, 28 million a year coupled with a No Trade Clause. However I guess you pray that he has an injury that requires him to retire so the insurance will cover 80% of the salary.

by sqrebck on Jun 30, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok my bad

but I don’t see him ever seriously considering leaving the Lakers (except that one summer).

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Jun 30, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't tink that Kobe was seriously considering to join us

I think he was toying with our offer in order to make his offer bigger. Apparenty Lakers took the bait and he’s still with LA.

Damn, but imagine what the Lakers will look like if Kobe was hurt 80% of the season.

Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!

by JackduhSun on Jun 30, 2009 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions

He was seriously considering us

Its already been verified how close it was. It wasn’t a negotiating ploy, the Lakers were offering the maximum contract with the maximum years so it wasn’t like there was anything being left off the table.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Jul 1, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I thought Lakers weren't offering max

until Clippers offer max.? I mean you would think that Clippers had sweeter offer? They were willing to move to Anaheim, closer to his house for crying out loud!

Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!

by JackduhSun on Jul 1, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions