Where the Clips stand in the West
by MichaelCage on Jul 29, 2009 8:09 PM PDT
Email
Print
After going through some posts on this blog, and talking to our Clippers rep for the upcoming season, it seems to me that many people assume that we have a good chance of making the playoffs next year. This seems a bit overly optimistic for a team coming off a 19 win season. Even if we double our wins to 38 next year, which would be a pretty impressive turnaround, that probably won't be enough to snag a spot in the western conference playoff. Granted the West has gotten weaker than in years past, but of the eight playoff spots in the West, how many are actually up for grabs?
PLAYOFFS BOUND TEAMS (barring catastrophic injuries to superstar players)
1) Lakers - The world champs will snag a top three spot in the West even if they lose Lamar to free agency. Their only weakness is a thinning bench (if they lose Lamar) and a starting PG to ease the minutes for Fish. Artest might also run around naked and burn down the team hotel one night. Barring that, though, they should have a playoff spot locked up.
2) San Antonio - My sentimental favorite to win it all next year. The health of Ginobli is still key, but if their core can stay healthy with the addition of Richard Jefferson and darkhorse rookie DeJuan Blair, they might have enough fire power to take out even the Lakers on their best day.
3) Denver - Chancey has calmed the team down tremendously, and while they might not be as good as they were during the first two rounds of the previous playoffs, they'll probably get 50 wins even if they sleepwalk through the regular season.
4) Portland - Unless they take a huge step backwards, their young core should be even better next year. Maybe adding Andre Miller to the team will screw up their tempo and chemistry. But asides from that, they should have enough raw talent to contend for spots 3-6.
5) Utah - Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan will have to be placed on suicide watch if they fail to make the playoffs, with or without Boozer. They have enough talent and are disciplined enough not to slack off during the regular season.
6) New Orleans - Unless George Shin goes into complete miser mode and dumps Chris Paul's contract for peanuts, the Hornets should be able to snag one of the spot. Paul and Byron Scott are too competitive for the team to lose focus. Getting Okafor for Chandler gives them a bit better offense in the post, though they lose a bit of an edge defensively. Playing with Paul should also get Ike some good numbers.
7) Dallas - Kidd is another year older, but Dirk is still in his prime. They have alot of questionable guys like Jason Terry & Josh Howard, and a bunch of one dimensional ex-Clippers in Q Ross, Singleton, and Tim Thomas so they're almost a bubble team. But Carlise got those guys to play hard and they competed well in the last month of the season. Before he burns out the team completely, this Dallas squad should be able to build on their momentum this year. I think they'll probably end up in the 6th or 7th spot again.
BUBBLE TEAMS: That leaves these five teams fighting for the last playoff spot
8) Phoenix - Nash and Grant Hill might have enough left in the tank for one last push for the playoff, with Amare getting monster numbers now that Shaq is gone, but wins might be a different story. It's hard to count out Steve Nash, though, and they seem capable of at least playing .500 ball.
9) Houston - Was last year's playoff series against the Lakers without Yao a fluke? Artest played horribly after the first two games, so in a way, they were winning without him. Who knows how much T-Mac's got left, but they have a decent young core and Adelman might squeeze enough out of Brooks, Landry, Scola, and Battier to at least fight for the last spot. Aaron Brooks looks like a star against the Lakers. It will be interesting to see how effective he is in the regular season against guys with better ankles than Fish. But their young guys gained alot of confidence last year in pushing the Lakers to 7. The NBA season is long, but they just might have enough mental toughness to contend for the last spot.
10) Clippers - It's all about young core developing and making sure that the veterans don't suck up all the crunch time shots and stifle the growth of Blake and EJ. If Baron don't sulk and comes back in relatively good shape we should be there fighting for the last spot. It would help if you can sneak into the West under .500, but that hasn't happened in a long time. We need ALOT of luck, Blake & EJ to have a monster year, no injuries, and hope that Phoenix, Houston, OKC, and/or Dallas falters.
11) Oklahoma City - People are whispering that Durant might be able to lead the league in scoring next year. They have a good young core and the budding superstar. We're probably on equal footing with OKC and a step below Phoenix's level of consistency and veteran leadership. It will be interesting to see who finishes the season with a better record. That might be the real race for the Clips this year.
12) Golden State - Nellie is going to ramp up the pace again with all his young guns. They're alot more volatile than most teams, so if Nellie catches lighting in a bottle, they can get 45 wins, but on the other hand, everything can completely collapse on his head. Stephen Jackson and Maggette can get into fist fights or end up choking Nellie before the season is over.
Anyways, that's our take on the playoffs picture next year in the West. We're hoping to contend for the final spot, but with the teams ahead of us, it doesn't look all that promising. So we're dialing down our expectations accordingly. That way, if we make the playoffs, it will be a nice and pleasant surprise.
26 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Does anybody else believe that we could have had a playoff team last season
had Baron actually preformend like Boomdizzle?
Did Dunleavy’s attempt to play “BoomDizzle” in a slower pace offense jeprodize that? Or did Baron’s weight/ age jeprodize it? (Or both?) Which do you think was a bigger factor?
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
In hindsight...
there was no chance that the Clippers would make the playoffs last season. When it came down to it, we were a 19 win team last year and many of our losses were not even close…they were blow outs that many of us have banished from our minds. Some of the games were so bad that people in our section were laughing uncontrollably through the tears. Moreover, Phoenix, which won 45 games last year didn’t even make the playoffs. So a fit and productive Baron wouldn’t necessarily add another 30 wins for the Clips. He might have pushed us to 25+ wins territory if he had the cajones and leadership of Cassell, but that’s a far far away from the playoffs.
Okay wrong, talk about West college team;
but how about atleast a 19 game win? I would have atleast said 30-40 wins possibly?
Plus, I did mean at the beginning of the season.
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
Crap, Im seriously high or something
*okay wrong talk about the West.
*but how about atleast a 19 game win team? In the beginning of the season, I would have atleast said 30-40 wins possibly.
Mike Smith on Eric Gordon: "The Clippers may have found their go to scorer."
On a second note, I want Novak back!
At the beginning...
of last season, I thought we would be a 30 win team. I think I told the guy behind our seats that. But it turned out I was wildly optimistic. I got ribbed about it at the end of the season. “Man were you way off. We’re horrible.” And indeed we were.
by MichaelCage on Jul 29, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we can get a playoff spot
Houston is now in rebuild mode and you never know when another huge injury is going to take place and dismantle a team (hopefully it doesn’t happen to us). But we’re gonna be competing against Phoenix and Oklahoma City for that final spot which is going to be difficult but not impossible. Hopefully we start out the season with another 14 game winning streak.
If Baron is healthy and focused...
and he decides to play some defense, I’d say we have a slim chance at the #8 spot.
We need to get rid of BRicky, and get either a starter or a solid backup at the 2/3.
'Cause how you play, is how you'll be remembered. PLAY LOUD!
Good Analysis
I think your analysis is solid. New Orleans didn’t dump Chandler as was commonly assumed, and in fact got a better player in Okafor – so the assumption a month ago that Shinn would cheap them out of the playoffs appears to be wrong. And I think the addition of Marion in Dallas makes them a solid playoff team as well – they were a player short last year. (At the same time, Dallas and to a lesser extent the Spurs are playing this perfectly for the future Clippers – they’re doing all they can to keep the window open a little longer, which bodes well for the Clippers in three or four years, when Griffin and Gordon are old guys – you know, 24.)
Utah is the only team in your 7 that seems to have the potential to stumble. I say this mainly because they were terrible down the stretch last season. They lost 7 of their last 9, and 11 of their last 18 – and they’re probably going to lose Boozer at this point. I could never figure out what was wrong with them at the end of last season – but something wasn’t right.
But even if you add Utah into the next group, it’s still six finding for two… and three of them have a head start.
Clearly the Clippers were not a 19 win team in terms of talent last season. So a big turnaround is entirely possible. And winning tends to build on itself (as does losing). But no, I don’t expect the Clippers to make the playoffs – I’d be very pleasantly surprised.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Thanks,
Yeah the moves that Dallas, Phoenix, and to a degree, New Orleans made this off season was a bit surprising. I didn’t think that Dallas was going to re-sign Kidd nor that Phoenix was going to re-sign Nash. With the addition of Marion, QRoss, and TT, Dallas is clearly in a win now mode with Dirk. Though winning what, I don’t know, because they’re far from being a championship caliber team, even though they are clearly superior to bubble teams like us.
I thought Phoenix was going to a complete rebuilding mode as well, but then they signed Nash, retained Grant Hill, and haven’t given up on Stoudemire. Maybe they’re afraid of losing their fan base completely in a recession, and they’re doing just enough to remain competitive with a talented but aging nucleus. That doesn’t bode well for them long term, but it doesn’t bode well for our playoff chances this year because it puts them in the mix for that last spot.
I agree with you on Utah’s fade last year. They clearly have to get rid of a self-absorbed Boozer (another lying Dukie) and somehow the Euros have to toughen up in the post season. It is tough to bet against a Jerry Sloan team in the regular season though, because they always seem to execute their set plays very well, especially in Utah, where the Clippers haven’t won since the Regan years or the Peloponnesian war. The post season is a different story, and as constructed, they’re far from being an elite team. You’re right in that they’re probably not a team on the rise (like we perceive them to be two years ago), but they might not fall very far either.
Houston is another intriguing team. On the surface, without Yao, Artest, or a healthy TMac they don’t seem to have very much. But then you think, with a similar line up, racked by injuries, they racked up like 20 wins in a row two seasons ago. Adelman is one of those guys who gets the most out of his players and somehow, his team is always greater than the sum of their parts. Brooks, Scola, Battier, and Landry just might be tough enough to give the playoff teams a run. Even though the Lakers play down to the level of their competition, they seemed most vulnerable last year against this depleted Houston squad (their series against Denver, Orlando, and Utah were much easier). On paper, we should be better than Houston, but that seven games series against the Lakers probably instill their young guys with confidence this year, and a head start over the Clippers in terms of chemistry and focus.
I do expect us to be more entertaining this year. I think alof of longtime Clippers fans are very patient. We just want to see good basketball and want to see our young players develop. My buddy and I were laughing on the phone today because our season ticket rep said that we’re going to miss out on the playoff tickets this year if we don’t re-up. Playoffs?! We’re the Clippers. And you’re threatening us with the loss of our playoff seat reservations? We can count on one hand the number of years we’ve made the Playoffs. And this year isn’t likely to be one of them. It feels like we’ve been going to Clipper games longer than our rep has been alive, though that isn’t mathematically possible.
by MichaelCage on Jul 29, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Houston
Adelman has done a great job. But eventually talent matters. I just don’t think they have enough. Put it this way – if they can make the playoffs with $40M in annual salary injured, then MDsr owes us all a big apology, because he said it can’t be done. (I’m counting TMac in that total – if he has a great year, it changes the equation some of course.)
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jul 30, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Dallas is stronger than you stated....
They have The Matrix as well.
Yea Dallas has really improved.
They’ve made some nice moves and I fully expect them to be in the fight for home court this season.
Good post
I think the Clips need to sign Sessions AND trade for a really high quality backup wing (say Azubuike) for the team to be a credible playoff threat.
As is, or even with just an ok backup wing, I think the other teams would have to suffer a lot of bad luck and the Clips would have to have a dream season (when’s the last time things worked out that way instead of the reverse?) to be an 8th seed.
The rest of the west is still solid (though not as powerful as before) and the Clips still have a long way to go.
Plus, all the talent means little of Baron and Dunleavy can’t get on the same page.
Yeah personally I wouldve swapped Dallas and Utah. Also, I’d be happy with a playoff push after last season. If they make the playoffs I’ll be stoked
by AtotheZ on Jul 30, 2009 5:06 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Hmmm...
You guys are probably right in that Dallas and Utah should swap places, especially if you consider each team’s respective strength of finish. Plus it usually takes three years before the players turn on Carlise so he should have those guys operating at maximum efficency this year. It’s interesting though that Cuban bought in a noted disciplinarian right after dumping Avery Johnson. Two disciplinarians back to back, doesn’t that violate some NBA tenet about filling that vacancy with a player’s coach before the players mutiny?
In terms of Dallas picking up Marion though, I’ve never been a big Matrix fan. He seems to be one of those guys that were referred to as underrated so often that they became overrated. I think he was the perfect guy in D’Antoni’s system with Nash inflating his numbers. The last couple of years in more traditional offense seem to have taken the shine off his All-Star credentials. Plus, with the nickname like “The Matrix,” it just reminds me of how old he is. I mean why would you keep your nickname after Matrix 3? I suppose it can be worse, he could have been nicknamed; “Starman” after the Jeff Bridges movie and that would be really bad.
Kidd might be able to give Marion a few buckets a game, but does he come off the bench to back up Josh Howard? They’re hoping that QRoss turns into Bowen, and we’ve been down that road before. All and all though, they have gotten better in the off season, in the sense that their new pick ups were upgrades and guys like QRoss, TT, and Marion all have a specific role on the team.
I've just been listening to the Simmons/Stein/Bucher
chat about this on the podcast also. I’d agree also that the Mavs have made themselves better but I don’t think to the same extent that say someone like the Spurs have.
The peices they have got are all pointing to Dirk playing some 5 and I think they could be ok in short spells with that but it isn’t going to push them past the 2nd round I wouldn’t have thought.
I think a deal with the Clippers really makes sense for Dallas. They would probably prefer Howard for Kaman but I’d probably take Howard for Camby/R Davis exp instead. Gives them both contracts coming off their books at the end and they get a shot blocker that will allow Dirk to play more 4 and take his perimeter shots. Gives them Camby/Dirk/Marion/Terry/Kidd. Ok, so they loose something with Howard gone but Dirk and Marion don’t get mismatches on D.
Howard would be a decent fit in at the Clippers and would allow us to move Thornton to sixth man, having him off the bench with DJ, Smith and Telfair (and maybe Jones?).
I’m never quite sure why these teams who are in the bottom end of the playoffs make a lot of moves unless they are trying to win the whole damn thing. Money isn’t a priority for Cuban so these moves just slightly improve them without giving them a realistic chance of going to the finals. It’s an ageing team without top young players coming through. It’s gotta be win now but in my opinion, it’s not enough.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
I'm not sold
On Josh Howard. But yes, some sort of trade for one of our centers makes sense for Dallas…especially if Craig Smith pans out. Perhaps there is some three-way trade scenario out there that gives us a better guard-forward?
interesting
i see dallas doing it now that they have Marion but do the clipps want to give up their exp contracts? tough decision: get better now? or sign someone next season
Josh Howard could be expiring this
year also. The salaries would match to those ideas shown above and he’s got a team option of 11.8M for the following season.
That way, if you want to be players in 2010 then you can by letting him go but you’ve got options to trade him by taking the team option out and trading for someone else.
And, if you strike lucky and he fits the team well, with Kaman/Griffin/Howard/Gordon/Davis, then you could resign him
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
haven't been able to lsiten to simmons podcast
anything on the clippers??
I would have to go check his stats, but
I seem to recall that the Matrix did pretty well before Nash got to Phx. I suspect that he’s just starting to slow down a bit now.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Clips Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
