Berri on the 09-10 Rockets

This is the test. No "scorers". Nothing resembling a "big three".

50 wins and playoffs? Were they real when this squad battled with the Lakers? What's the score here? What's next?

over 2 years ago John R 7 comments 0 recs |

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I highly doubt they get 30 wins

there effort against the Lakers was great but it was just that a great effort. It can’t be sustained for too long.

In Gordon we trust

by bestclipfan on Aug 14, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions

This is a fascinating experiment...

The simple fact is that Berri’s theories rarely would get such a complete test, because NBA GM’s don’t build teams devoid of stars. The Rockets weren’t either – but their stars have been taken away from them. So can a collection of Berri- guys, posting solid win score totals, actually win games? I don’t think they can. But if they do, I’ll be a much bigger believer in Wages of Wins than I am now. (This ‘test’ assumes that TMac doesn’t go off. If McGrady returns to form and stays healthy, it contaminates the test of course.)

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Aug 14, 2009 4:09 PM PDT reply actions

I think I'll go out on a limb and say - - - - - Um, no

Those high WIN scores depend on a go to scorer or two.

who is Berri predicting to win it all.

by Jax on Aug 14, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

I tend to agree...

But what happens if he’s right Jax? Do you drink the WoW kool aid at that point?

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Aug 15, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Does that really make sense?

How could it possibly be correct? They need a go to scorer and they don’t really have one. Who’s going to shoot the ball at the end of the game? Who is the team leader?

The only way it works is if one or two players step up and becomes that go to scorer.

The larger point is a discussion we’ve had before – are we really going to put 5 high win-score centers on a starting 5? What offense would they play – how would they play defense?

Seems to me Berri’s thesis is just a way to create something to discuss based solely on speculation and a flawed understanding of the game of basketball. People who think that you can predict everything based on stats are intrigued by it. Basketball is a game that involves five different people at once. The WIN score stats are relative to the other players on the team. If you want to use stats as a predictor, baseball would be a good place to start.

I wonder if Berri is going to predict the Lakers, Magic, Celtics ,or Cavs to win. I would be very surprised if he picks anyone else.

by Jax on Aug 16, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Heh

So basically, the ability to predict the future wouldn’t interest you if it went against your worldview. That’s been my point all along. Rigidity in thought is a very bad thing.

The only way it works is if one or two players step up and becomes that go to scorer.

Ah outs. Cowardice in Arial 10. So in the case the prediction comes true, you simply redefine a Berri guy as a scorer all along. Viola, no critical thinking required.

"The larger point is a discussion we’ve had before – are we really going to put 5 high win-score centers on a starting 5? What offense would they play – how would they play defense?

The strawman continues. Find where Berri encourages this (in fact he never has) and then you might have something. Something other than falsehoods, of course. You have plenty of those.

by John R on Aug 17, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions

I see: According to John R I'm a "coward" and I "have plenty of falsehoods" because I'm not a big fan of Dave Berri's stats thesis

What worldview? Berri’s system makes no sense? If that’s a worldview, Steve apparently shares it.

by Jax on Aug 17, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

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