Clippers Regular Season Win Total

by supac on Oct 15, 2010 12:30 AM PDT

Oddsmakers currently have the Clippers' number at 38.5 regular season wins. More precisely, it's 23% more likely to go under (61.5%) than over (38.5%). Meaning, you can get around +160 on the over (risk $100 to win $160).

Perhaps it's time for Club Optimism members to put up or shut up.

The Lakers are at 56.5 (-110 O). The SuperHeat are at 63.5 (-140 O) - best team in the L. The Timbercubs are at 22.5 (even) - worst team in the L.

You can risk $125 to win $100 that anybody other than John Wall (will the real Blake Griffin please stand up) will win the ROY.

Thoughts?

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Comments

Thanks for posting

Had been wondering what the numbers would look like.

Vegas as level headed as ever. The Clips have looked every bit a 38 win team in preseason.

by ghost_ride on Oct 15, 2010 1:21 AM PDT reply actions

actually Vegas is predicting below 38.5 wins

hence the odds they are giving. It’s probably about 36 for even money then.

FA in 2010.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 15, 2010 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions

38.5 is the over under

38’s a half a game below that. Maybe even money is 36 or 37.
But they’re daring Clipper fans to bet @ 39 or more.

by ghost_ride on Oct 15, 2010 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions

You'd be a brave man to bet over 38 wins

Bingo! Oh me oh my!

by ClippersUK on Oct 15, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Yea

it sounds simple enough, heck its not even .500. But then you have to realize the Clippers have only done it FIVE times under DTS.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 15, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions

34 Wins...

I don’t think we have what it takes to get over the hump (the hump being .500). I REALLY hope that I am wrong!

"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.

by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Oct 15, 2010 3:10 AM PDT reply actions

Getting in on the action

Thanks for the info! Do you, or any member of the nation for that matter, know how (without physically taking a trip to vegas) I can get some action on these lines?

by ClippaBalla on Oct 15, 2010 4:47 AM PDT reply actions

I think Vegas is right - 35-40

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Oct 15, 2010 10:11 AM PDT reply actions

not exactly the Vegas math when it comes to futures

but I have bad habits and don’t expect everyone else to have them as well

Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas

by bacek on Oct 15, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions

These Vegas odds makers should be the ones writing articles

So much more realistic than that sham Hollinger and his stats.

by Newton Pham on Oct 15, 2010 10:33 AM PDT reply actions

There's less money in it

The oddsmaker make more than the writers why would they want to give away their secrets. Besides the oddsmaker try to set a line and the line moves because they want even amounts of action on each side so they can collect their vig (or juice).

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 15, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I say 35 wins...

the team this year reminds me of the 00-01 squad that won 31 games with D-Miles, Q-Rich, Maggette, Dooling, Olowokandi, etc, or the 01-02 squad that won 39 with Brand… They’ll be exciting to watch but won’t be able to close out the close games. So 35 is right in the middle of 31 and 39.

by kraptacular on Oct 15, 2010 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

For Comparison

The regular season win total last year for the Clippers was 34.5 (+130 O) – and that was BEFORE the Griffin injury.

by supac on Oct 15, 2010 12:50 PM PDT reply actions

not at all, it depends on when you took those bets

It will shift when it gets to the day before opening night

As it is set up right now they want people to take the over. Which they believe is highly unlikely. It will get closer to their true assessment the night before opening night. Which I expect to be exactly the same bet as last year.

Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas

by bacek on Oct 15, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

the smart money comes in last minute

that said the pros would probably not bet on the futures as it takes too long. Just tying up the cash for another 6 months is dumb.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Oct 15, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Obviously

The line shifts as bets are placed and news come out (injuries and such). The 34.5 from last year was during the middle of pre-season (about the same time as now). When Griffin got injured, the line came (mostly) off the board.

As it is set up right now, they do not care which side you take – as long as you place a bet.

by supac on Oct 15, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks for pointing out I stated the obvious then go ahead and proceed to state the obvious

But my point is that Vegas lines will tell you what their insiders think. They will be a lot closer to what they think as time goes on, or in this case closer to the start of the season (I know obvious)

You are wrong on what Vegas wants you to bet. They want you to bet the 160. Why? Because they think you will lose. They are less inclined for you to bet closer to the start of the season because the line will shift, and their true thoughts revealed.

It will shift closer to 34.5-35.5 when the season starts and most likely carry a standard +125

Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas

by bacek on Oct 15, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions