2009-2010 Al Thornton vs Rudy Gay
Look at this and help me figure out why we wanted to dump Al Thornton but will pay $10M or more for Rudy Gay?
Rudy Gay is Al Thornton with a green light.
over 2 years ago
John R
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Minor improvements
On most secondary stats, on either the per 36 or advanced stat level, Gay is a little better – rebound rate, assist rate, turnover rate. He also gets to the line more which bumps up his TS%. But I agree that the main reason he scores 20 ppg is because he shoots enough to do so.
Having said that, this guy named John Hollinger put a lot of time and effort into a metric he calls PER, and it says here that Gay’s PER is 17, while Al’s is less than 12. That’s a big difference, though I’m hard pressed to see on these stats what accounts for that difference.
Even so, I wouldn’t spend $10M for a guy with a PER of 17 (if I were a PER guy).
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
That’s a big difference, though I’m hard pressed to see on these stats what accounts for that difference.
As you say, Gay is better at every component of PER. Better TS%, better TRB%, better assist rate, better turnover rate. In fact, Gay is better at every component of PER with the exception of TS% than Rasual Butler and that’s because Butler is basically a 3 point shooting specialist.
Gay is not just a scorer as he rebounds and assists well (though having 3 legit scorers on the floor with him in Memphis no doubt helps his assist rate.) He’s also averaging about 1 block and 1 steal per game.
I’m not sure why people look at guys who are good scorers, and assume that’s all they can do. I remember someone calling TMac a chucker and then you look up his stats and realize he averages a boatload of assists per game. If guys are good at scoring the ball, that doesn’t mean they suck at everything else.
Basically, Gay is younger than Thornton and better at every aspect of the game.
That being said, I still wouldn’t overpay for Gay, but the above stats don’t show me that these two are particularly comparable players.
by Michael White on Feb 19, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
SP alluded enough that I was going to leave it alone
Gay’s stats are marginally better. Marginally. Yet his PER is much better. So let’s see if I can find anything between them that is scaling almost perfectly linearly with PER.
So the difference in PER is 5.1. The difference in PP36 is 4.4. Thats so weird!
Of course Gay is taking 3.2 more shots and the rough equivalent to 1 trip to the line to get those points. So 4.4 more points on about 4 more possessions…
Its a double condemnation! Gay is overrated AND PER is overrated.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
It’s not that simple. I get that you don’t like PER. But its not just scoring. Gay is better at everything. Every single component. I just don’t see the logic of saying that Thorton is like Gay, except that Gay is better at everything. Being a little bit better at 5 different aspects of basketball, makes you a better basketball player.
by Michael White on Feb 19, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
Looking at per 36 minutes stats
There is no meaningful difference between the players other than Gay shoots more.
0.4 REB and 0.2 AST just isn’t setting my heart a flutter to the tune of $10M per.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Interesting stuff John
and to a certain extent, I agree with you. The numbers don’t look different to the tune of 10M but I think there are also some other factors to take into account. Rudy has been starting every game so is up against the best players on the opposition teams while Al has started just more than half our games, meaning he’s spent a lot of time coming off the bench, matching up against the oppositions bench players.
Also, and this is a bigger point, is that Rudy is only 23, a year younger than Al was when he came into the NBA so I think he’s got potentially a much higher ceiling.
You’ve seen Rudy play. He can flat out score and I think his athleticism would compliment EJ on the other wing also.
I just worry that Rudy isn’t the player to push us over the top and take us to being a contender. On the other hand, he’s the right age to grow with our core of EJ, Blake and DJ. I just don’t know.
Maybe having Rudy and then keeping Outlaw is a nice combination.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
Confidence?
Perhaps it’s a confidence issue? Rudy isn’t that great of a shooter, but he’s definitely more confident than Al. I’m not sure he’d always put forth the effort Al did, but I think he’s more likely to get to the line with the game on the line than Al would.
Whether you believe in referee bias or not, Rudy’s simply going to get more calls than Al would, based on his reputation.
It is interesting
how quickly GMMDsr has given up on Thornton.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Heh
He gave him two more years than I did.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
You didn't like him after he put up 39 as a rookie?
I had high hopes for him, and all of his “second coming of Dominique” buzz, back when he was a rookie.
Not really
That’s the great thing about rookies right? The buzz? All that hope?
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Yep, he played ok when we were very poor
but you could see his weaknesses glaring when you tried to build a proper offensive system and have him be a part of that.
I remember many people saying that he wouldn’t improve because of his age and I think up to this point, they have been proved right.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
I personally never liked him - Stuckey was my guy
But MDSr clearly did. He wasn’t able to develop the guy, and he probably can’t see how any coach can. I think he has a role on a properly coached team.
It is interesting how MDSr is jettisoning everything he can for a shot at LBJ. Even Blake and Outlaw are signed only through the end of this year. I would handicap our chances at 10 to 15 percent. What are the contingency plans?
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
10-15% is pretty generous
I would say he has a 75% chance of staying in Cleveland, the Knicks get 10%, then teams like us, the Nets, Heat, Bulls get to split the remaining 15%.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Feb 20, 2010 1:44 AM PST up reply actions
You guys can't be serious?
It is all about age. Rudy will be 24 years young, AT will be 27 this year.
I would much rather have a proven scorer at the age of 24, than a guy that is not a scorer at age 27.
This is all small talk though, as I am sure MDsr wants to go bigger.
HVYDRT007-"EJ's value is diminishing Game By Game"
Your a guy whos big on players not worth their contract
so compare Al’s rookie contract with Gay’s potential 12 Mils (because RFA) contract.
Age doesn't seem to matter as much...
I’ve read a bunch of articles recently, about how age doesn’t seem to be the only driving factor in the decline of a player’s abilities. It would appear that it’s the number of games played in the NBA has a much stronger correlation. They are starting to notice, with all of these straight-from-high-school players, that they are showing their age much sooner than players like Al, who stayed in college longer. College seasons do not put even remotely close to as much wear and tear on the players’ bodies than an NBA season does.
They do put some strain
and even doing nothing puts a strain. David Robinson started his career a bit late due to his Navy commitment. By 32 his back gave out on him and he was never the same. That’s about the right age players decline.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Feb 20, 2010 1:46 AM PST up reply actions
How much cap space would Rudy take up
If you had to guess how much we’d have to stump up for Rudy to stop the Grizz matching it, what sort of figure do you think it would be?
If we had to pay him say 50M over 5 years, would that leave enough to pay what we’d need for the bench?
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
FYI. Memphis offered Rudy 5/50 last year which he turned down, he wanted 5/$60. The Grizzlie blogger on SBN believes that Memphis will offer 5/$60 after this season.
So in order to get Gay, it would have to be a better offer than 5/$60. Hence Steve’s point that you basically have to overpay RFA’s.
by Michael White on Feb 19, 2010 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks Michael
I don’t think I quite understand how things work though. I thought that Memphis have to put a qualifying offer out and then decide whether to match or not any offers that come in from other teams. Is that wrong?
At first, you see 12M a year as overpaying but is it really? At 23, could improve to be a 22-24ppg man maybe.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
This is how I would take over this offseason
Obviously we take our shot at Lebron, we have to. If we strike out hopefully the Hawks and Joe Johnson are still at some kind of stalemate. We purposely offer Joe Johnson 5 years/75 million (not quite the max). The Hawks will have no choice but to pay it. Now we can go after Josh Childress and offer him 5 years for 40 million. The Hawks can’t match it… not when they are already paying Jamal Crawford 10 million next year, this would put them in luxury tax hell. It’s very similar to what happened to us years ago when teams went after Maggette, Odom and FElton and we could only match 2 of the contracts (Maggette and FElton).
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Feb 20, 2010 1:55 AM PST up reply actions
Hmm?
On what? There weren’t any mistakes.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Feb 21, 2010 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
my mistake(s)
I thought u meant Josh SMITH who is already signed.
I have no idea why we would want CHILDRESS though.
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