Clippers 90 - Chicago 82 - Just When We Thought They Were Done
by Steve Perrin on Feb 3, 2010 12:34 AM PST
in Game Recaps
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PrintIt's hard to figure this game sometimes. The Bulls, having just won five straight road games against five good teams, were among the hottest teams in the league. The Clippers on the other hand had lost four straight, including games against the two worst (not two of the worst, the two worst) teams in the league. The Bulls were home, rested, and on a roll. I fully expected Chicago to win this game.
Instead, a 16-4 Clippers run midway through the first quarter resulted in an 8 point lead at 24-16, and they never trailed again. Chicago got no closer than six the second half. Each time it seemed that they might make a run, the Clippers responded with a big play - an Eric Gordon three, a steal and a dunk, a defensive stand.
Chicago is by no means a great offensive basketball team - and the Clippers defense exposed their weaknesses. Luol Deng began the game making five straight jumpers to score their first twelve points, but honestly if you can limit the penetration of Derrick Rose and contest the perimeter shots, you'll take your chances against the Bulls. Sure enough, Deng cooled off (which is putting it mildly as he missed all seven shots he took after the first quarter), and the Clippers forced every other Chicago player into a tough shooting night. As a team, Chicago shot only 38%, and that number was the same in each half of the game.
Offensively it was a mixed bag for LA. Chris Kaman had a terrific first half; a lackluster second half. Eric Gordon had a poor first half; a stellar second half. But each was able to carry the scoring load for a portion of the game, and with the support of Rasual Butler (6 for 8 and 3 for 3 on threes) it was enough to outscore the Bulls.
Kaman scored 21, 15 in the first half, and in stark contrast to the first game against Chicago, he was dialed in on his jumper. HoopData has him 4 for 7 from beyond 16 feet. Unfortunately, he was not finishing well around the basket - they've got him at 3 for 8 at the rim. And all three of those makes were assisted, so he did not finish a one-on-one post move the entire game. In his defense, he was not getting any love from the refs - they rewarded him with only a single trip to the free throw line, and there could easily have been several other calls. But he also had some Mr. Flippy moments where he just missed or didn't finish as strongly as he should have.
Gordon scored 24 in the game, with 15 coming in the third quarter. It's been awhile since EJ has gone on a scoring outburst like that. It was good to see. When his jumper is falling as it was in this game, it makes a huge difference in his game.
When Chicago's defense clamped down in the fourth quarter, things got a little dicey. Kaman was 1 for 5 in the fourth. The team began the quarter making just one of their first ten shots - exactly the opportunity Chicago needed to get back into a game they trailed by 15. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the Clippers defense didn't allow them to capitalize. So while the Clippers were missing all those shots, the Bulls were missing almost as many (it wasn't the prettiest quarter I've ever watched.) When the Clippers finally got the lid off the basket, they were able to put it out of reach pretty quickly. They scored only 12 points in the quarter, but with a 15 point cushion going in and the defense playing well, it was enough.
It's almost cruel how this team does just enough to keep Clips Nation's hopes alive. They were sub-terrible in the last four games and we were ready to move on to lottery mode around here. Then again, they're now 11-2 with their 'regular' starting lineup (if you can call it regular when it's been used 11 times in 48 games). In fact, given that one of the losses was the New Jersey game in which Camby played only seven minutes before leaving with a bruised rib, you could argue that the lineup is really 11-1. They're 0-6 without Kaman - even .500, 21 and 21 with him. Similarly they are 4-8 without Eric Gordon. So with Gordon AND Kaman, they're a respectable 17-13. But why are they so completely helpless when even one cog is missing? Why are they so delicate that they can't compete with a single starter missing?
Unfortunately for the Clippers, they now have a really tough back to back tomorrow night against the Hawks. Not only do they have almost 600 miles of travel (shorter than LA to Portland, but a haul nonetheless), they're going East one time zone - so the Atlanta game starts an hour earlier.
I didn't think they had much chance in Chicago and they proved me wrong. Can they do it again tomorrow in the ATL?
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Pretty sure we are still done
Didn’t expect the team to lose every game from here on out so this one was needed. If and I mean this is a HUGE IF the Clippers can take the game today and beat the Spurs(doubt it) and Jazz (possible) then we can talk about having at least a decent path to a respectable record. Knowing the consistentcy of the team however we could win our next three and lose the following four.
The Fragile Lineup Theory
The Clippers looked good, didn’t they? Chicago, with Rose and Hinrich, took away some of BD’s effectiveness, but it didn’t stop the Clippers.
I really like the analysis of the success of the Fragile Lineup. The Camby item is a really good one: sure, let’s factor in his rib injury, since he couldn’t come back in for the 4th quarter or any part of the 2nd half, after they tied the game. Against Chicago we got to see the Camby Factor. He’s really fun to watch, and it’s even more fun to watch him play against JNoah, who seems to be Camby 2.0 a lot of the time.
And a lot is made of the missing Kaman stat (0-6), but it’s much more fun to combine it with the missing Gordon stat, and that 17-13 number tells you more about what the team is really like, or their level of ability when healthy. While reviewing, we don’t want to forget the missing Griffin stat, although we’ve moved past that now.
Yes, it’s still a mystery, why the team can’t win when one starter is missing. That’s worth chewing on at some point. Maybe they can win without Rasual Butler. I have no interest in trying to find out if they can win without Baron Davis.
The other thing, since we keep hearing about how important Kaman is to the team and it’s effectiveness and ability to win, is that I’d like Milph or some one to mention at some point how that was a huge factor in the Clippers getting 19 wins last year. They were awful last year, but they wouldn’t have been nearly so bad if Kaman hadn’t missed so many games. The point is worth making, in assessing the Clippers.
In response to the "delicate" query...
I believe that some systems are more reliant on personnel than others. Without giving it a ton of thought, I would place Dunleavy’s system at the far end of the reliance spectrum. This is not Nellieball where often every player can (and does) play all three-five positions. Everybody has a defined role in this system (e.g., Kaman and Camby shouldn’t be bringing the ball up court). Every system has advantages and disadvantages. My hypothesis is that one of the disadvantages of Dunleavy’s system is that it needs every important piece to be working at full capacity. Some view that as an inflexible system, and I think there is merit to that point.
When this system works, the advantage is that the everybody knows their role to make it successful (think of FElton in his heyday). Another advantage is that it can be (and is often) employed repeatedly until the other team changes tactics or personnel. But it requires not only the physical availability of all of the major players but their willingness and understanding to embrace their respective role in the system. And I believe the Clips have had challenges on both fronts this year.
And not to get too picky, but your use of the royal “we” in the header suggests that everyone thought this team was “done.” Not true. While I could see why some might think that based on the repeated rantings of some who tend to dominate the word count on this site, there are loads of people who visit the site and post infrequently, if ever. And of that group, there are certainly some who view the road trip for what it is — frustrating to be sure, but it comes with the territory of learning how to win consistently. Overnight turnarounds (e.g., Boston from a few years ago) are extraordinarily rare. Most teams turn it around step by step, but with lots of missteps and setbacks along the way i.e., it’s almost never a straight line to success. If the five starters can stay basically healthy the rest of the way, I still believe a .500 record is achievable, even though our schedule is much tougher than the first month.
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted" – Albert Einstein
by Another son of Mike Smith on Feb 3, 2010 8:20 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
Excellent post....
Rec’d. Interesting theory on Dunleavy’s offense… though part of it might be blamed on the simple fact that the Clips bench is thin.
Regarding the “repeated rantings of some who tend to dominate the word count on this site”, there is a simple solution, ASOMS should contribute more often.
Point taken...
I post a lot less than I used to, in part because I’m traveling a lot more for work and I simply have a lot less time to pull my thoughts together and communicate them in what I view as a balanced manner. But there are some days where I check in and the dialogue feels (to me) so one-sided that I just say to myself “I simply don’t want to out in the effort to respond to this, no matter how faulty I may find the logic of it…” So in that regard, I am in fact partially responsible for the one sided nature of the interactions.
Also, it’s a lot easier to offer constructive criticism to Steve because I know he won’t get defensive and he’ll take it in the spirit in which it was received…
But I read Clips Nation multiple times each day, without fail.
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted" – Albert Einstein
by Another son of Mike Smith on Feb 3, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
The royal we
It’s something that I struggle with and have from day one. KA has always referred to “ClipperBlog” in the third person – “ClipperBlog has always believed this or that”. I never much cared for that, but I do sometimes use Clips Nation as a hybrid of the blog and the collection of fans (specifically those who read the blog). So I’ve sort of developed the habit of using Clips Nation (and sometimes We) to refer to the collective. But it’s certainly true that not everyone is in total agreement on everything – that could never be true. Still, I like to think I have something of a finger on the pulse.
As for your observations, I agree with them…. but there’s a bit of a conundrum there as well. Overnight turnarounds are indeed rare, and sadly we didn’t get to see if Blake Griffin might have contributed to one here (say for instance that Boston had added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, but Kevin Garnett was injured and missed the whole season). Anyway, you’re saying .500 is achievable. What happened to the playoffs? What is the measure of the season? Playoffs? .500? Double last season’s win total (38-44)? They only have to play .500 over their final 34 wins to double last season’s total. Obviously, that would constitute significant progress. Would it be enough?
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
I am satisfied with this season
in fact I pegged this team at 35 wins even with Blake before the season. So this team has actually exceeded my expectations. I think people get worked up because we are in the middle of the season and fully invested with our hearts instead of our brains. When we look back on the season in retrospect we will all realize that this season was actually pretty good considering we lost a purported transcendent NBA tour de force.
38 wins is ok, but...
…when you look at a team like Memphis, you can see how it’s possible to do much better than that.
lovin the Funk
Yes, it’s possible to do much better, but certain things have to go your way. Memphis has a great group that has gelled nicely. We—the Royal Clips Nation “we”—saw it coming because of our familiarity with Zbo and studying their roster. But they haven’t had much in the way of adversity: I don’t know that any of their starters have missed even a small chunk of games.
I’ve been meaning to spend some time talking about the Funk, and their success has been fun to follow. But you can’t compare the current Clipper season to their season. Start with the fact that the only reason they got Zbo from the Clippers in the first place was because of the arrival of Blake Griffin… who never arrived. So would Memphis be where they are if Zbo was out for the season? I don’t think so.
by citizen zhiv on Feb 3, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
With the All Star break upon us, it's a good question to revisit.
Obviously, everyone does their own goal setting at the start of the season. For me, my mantra in setting goals is “aggressive yet achievable.”
If you had told me at the start of the season that Griffin wouldn’t play a minute, I would have been ecstatic with a .500 record as an overall goal this season. If that got us into the playoffs, I would have viewed that as a bonus, but not a prerequisite to term the season a success. Doubling the win total is bit lower but still a nice symbolic hurdle as well – for me that would be enough because I tend to not look at a season in a vacuum but rather as part of a two or three year plan. But again, that is just me, as I believe that the skills (physical and mental) required to be consistent playoff participants year after year is much harder to establish as a norm than some on this site believe it is. Some people don’t have as much patience – and for them I suspect anything short of the second (or later) round of the playoffs is a failure.
If memory serves, I posted at the start of the season as to the metrics I was planning on using to personally measure the success of the team beyond just wins and losses. One of them was “substantially improved ability to convert final possessions at the end of quarters, halves and games,” as I viewed that aspect as a persistent failure in the team’s game last year. A lot of them were specific to individual players (“All of Kaman’s shots within five feet of the rim must be dunks”) or something like that.
Don’t have the time now, but I’d be curious to see how they have rated so far. And whether my metrics were even accurate predictors in the first place…
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted" – Albert Einstein
by Another son of Mike Smith on Feb 3, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
I had similiar metrics
but my main things I wanted to see improve were: defending home court and beating the teams we are better than on paper. We are greatly improved from last year in terms of those two things.
aggressive but achieveable
I like it.
Doesn’t apply very well to the crazy Clippers and their misfortunes, but it’s a great approach.
Really nice note on “delicate” and Dunleavy’s system too, btw. Agree completely, and it’s a great insight and clear statement of something "we"’ve been staring at for a long time, trying to get a handle on it.
by citizen zhiv on Feb 3, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
Respectability and consistency
To make the playoffs, we’d have to go, what, 25-9 the rest of the way? I don’t see that happening, but if we can somehow keep our record close enough to the outer edge of the bubble, then the players might maintain that extra sense of motivation.
Or maybe the allure of a .500 season is enough to prod our better efforts.
Whatever gets us going, at this point I think the real goal should be to develop better team consistency and competitiveness. That more or less translates to .500 ball for the games remaining, although with our starting 5 healthy, we ought to do somewhat better. With a two or three year plan in mind, what’s most important now is to build up a respectable identity… more important, I’d say, than landing a better draft pick.
BTW, I agree with Zhiv’s comment that the NJ game shouldn’t count as a game with our starters, since Camby was out for most of it. Obviously, we’re a lot better when both Kaman and Camby are playing. In light of this, and in the name of consistency, I’m starting to favor the option where we resign Camby, and probably Sool and Smith as well, and then shoot to use our MLE and draft pick to further beef up our bench.
Our trade exception
Hey, let’s wave Novak and see if we can pick up Dorell Wright’s expiring contract. He’d help in the short run and we might like him enough to keep him. It would also give us another player to possibly resign, so that we could avoid getting stuck in a lame position under the cap.
If we resign Camby, then we should also resign enough others to put us in position to use our MLE.
assumptions
I understand you don’t want to assume that a big name is coming, but what makes you so sure (and anyone else for that matter) we can resign any of our own guys that are expiring?
Because no one else has any money...
We saw it last year. We’re going to see it again this year. The NBA economy mirrors the national economy. Smith, Butler, Camby are gettable pieces. And if you’re looking for stability, experience, and chemistry you want at least two of those guys back in the barn.
I agree with swamigusto here, that these pieces are gettable
but you’re right, of course, that nothing’s assured. My main worry is that we’ll resign an awkward fraction of our players, such that we’ll have only limited cap space to sign one or two others. We’d end up then with a lesser team, as the cap will be lower next year.
On the other hand, if we sign enough of our players to get above the cap, we can then sign our pick and use our MLE. With Griffin returning, we’d have a better team, still with Camby and a deeper bench.
I like the idea of picking up Wright because it gives us more options/flexibility in the offseason. He’s also pretty good and would make Thornton more expendable.
Great point
And to piggy back on ASOMS’ point, I think it’s important to note that Dunleavy’s “system” is play book heavy, whereas those like Nellie and quite a few others nowadays is focused more on having a framework in place and allowing the players to improvise a bit within that framework.
Dun calls a play virtually every time down. It’s a set play with very specific roles for each player on the court. That’s rarely the case for teams on the other end of the spectrum like GSW or NYK.
It’d be nice to have something in between actually. Phil Jackson is more of a system guy. He puts the triangle in place and lets the players work within that framework. When you have that kind of system, it’s far easier to adjust to various players coming in and out.
We all know that Dun’s playbook is post heavy. So when Kaman, our single post threat, is missing, it’s a mess. Everyone else’s roles, which depend heavily on Kaman in the post, get thrown out of wack.
I disagree
for this year I think the playcalling has been toned down a lot. The execution on the other hand has not been there. Screen and roll is run about 2/3rds of the time. Then there is the ISO for Rhino, and the ISO for Baron. I mean we don’t even see the high school back screen curl that we would run for EJ all the time. Dunleavy has made some adjustments in terms of being so controlling.
Post heavy
The Dunleavy Clippers have always showed this inside out game. I think the observation that the team struggles most missing the crucial inside piece is on point and a little closer than to say that the system is strictly rigid. In 05-06 the team was able to stay afloat missing Maggette despite his importance to that team.
The system can make up for the loss of a wing or even a point guard as we saw in the sputtering along 06-07 campaign. One game out of the playoffs despite starting their 3rd or 4th PG for 25 games. Then the next two seasons were lost as Kaman AND the PF of the day were out for long stretches.
But then has any team been successful losing its best two players who also happen to be its two bigs? Look how the Lakers return to earth this season at times without Gasol and Bynum, even though they still have Kobe AND Odom AND Artest.
(Back from Leamington and Rip City and I have t-shirts for everyone)
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Great point
A consistent above average post presence is essential for success in MDsr’s system. Kaman 2.0 (or better) fits that mold to a T, and FElton also qualified. It’s amazing how much the rest of the system (and team success) is dependent upon that.
On a side note, it appears that this season the team HAS tried to get out and run a little more than most of us fans are accustomed to under MDsr, and it’s refreshing to see. I think MDsr realizes there is a some winning combination of both for this team, but injuries and consistency are killing this team.
Do or do not. There is no try.
it's not about the offense
it’s about the defense, as you can see from the game vs. the Bulls the difference was fast break points. Get stops, get easy buckets. Kaman is a very underrated piece to our defensive cohesion. Many overlook him because he is playing right next to Camby
This is true as well
But this year might be a factor of value over replacement as much as Kaman’s prowess, though he is a fine defender both individual and team. The problem for now is probably that the depth isn’t there on the defensive end without Griffin.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Nice to have Kaman back
Sure makes a difference. His game is vastly improved. He was knocking down 17 footers last night. I can’t wait to see what this team looks like with Blake Griffin plugged in next to him.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
kinda surprised camby didn't get much of a mention in the recap
He delivered an amazing performance last night and was easily the mvp of the game in my opinion…dude was EVERYWHERE contesting EVERYTHING. So many knockaways, blocks, tip-outs, hustle plays. Then again maybe we take it for granted.
by Joe Wolf's Mullet on Feb 3, 2010 1:38 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Loved seeing Camby get the steal then awkwardly dribble up court for the dunk.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's doing down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Feb 3, 2010 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
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