The Clippers' Problem With Tanking
by Steve Perrin on Mar 11, 2010 7:23 PM PST
in News
118 comments
Last year and the year before, I was actively thinking about ping pong balls by March, and coveting as many as possible. (Long before March, really.) You may have noticed that I'm not really doing that this season. There are a few primary reasons.
First, I just don't see a lot of payoff in it. Citizen SilverClip posted some information in a recent comment that seems to indicate a world of potential for improved lottery odds:
10. Clippers 25-40
9. 76ers 23-41
8. NY 22-42
7. Detroit 22-42
6. Wash 21-40
5. Kings 22-43
4. Indiana 21-43
Check out the record in the last 10 games for the six teams the Clippers are 'chasing': Sacramento is the only one to have won as many as 4 of their last 10. Philadelphia and Washington have each won 2. The others have won 3, just like the Clippers. This is not a casual, play DeAndre Jordan some extra minutes to ensure the loss tanking task. This is much, much bigger than that, and even if you did it, with only 17 more games left now, you might move from tenth to eighth. What's the point?
On the other hand, the Clippers actually have a much bigger incentive to win than teams in this situation typically do. As we enter the summer of LeBron, the Clippers would like to think that they have a chance, however slim, at a marquee free agent. As compared to the other bidders, the Clippers in theory could offer two things - the LA market, and a good core of players. The market is the market, and is the main reason the Clippers even exist probably. But if you're going to try to make the case that the Clippers are significantly more talented than New York or New Jersey then it doesn't look good to be going on double digit losing streaks. Those things tend to leave a lasting impression as you're going into a summer as a free agent.
In fact, I've come to think that this is one reason (along with the cash) that the Clippers took Portland's offer for Camby. Knowing that Telfair and Thornton were as good as gone, they grabbed a point guard and small forward to help them win some games in the final two months. As it happens, Outlaw hasn't been all that helpful so far, but in theory he was supposed to help.
Finally, as citizen Michael White pointed out in the comments and I've mentioned before as well, the Clippers 'plan' (such as it is) is built more around major free agent signings this summer than it is around a lottery pick. Given that the Clippers cap space is barely sufficient to make the necessary max offer even without a guaranteed rookie contract, it appears that the current plan A would involve trading the pick, regardless of where it is. It goes without saying that a higher pick would be better than a lower pick - but we're just not as attached to this draft pick because of the corresponding impact on cap space.
You could actually make a pretty solid argument that the Clippers' slim odds of winning the lottery with the 10th worst record (11 in 1000, 1.1%) are better than the odds that LeBron James will sign with them as a free agent. But as we've discussed before, you take that chance, no matter what the odds are.
So I tend to believe that you can feel perfectly free to root for wins in these finial 17 games. It's unlikely they could lose enough to alter their position significantly given the other teams involved, while every win makes LA a tiny bit more attractive as a new home for a free agent. Of course, if you're rooting for them to win, you also need to be prepared to be disappointed.
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So many variables...so just root for your team
In past years I’ve also kept a super close eye on the standings in hopes that the team would maximize its chances. But this year, it hardly matters. There are so many variables that it’s too hard to predict. So really, it makes just as much sense to simply root for the team you love (and hate). But hey, if (when) they lose, you can console yourself by thinking that it might help get a few more ping pong balls. Win-win!
While I agree with your basic premise Steve, I think in the end, almost none of it will matter. The Clips won’t likely be able to be in the bottom 3 or so of the league to get a legit crack at John Wall. At the same time, a few extra wins in yet another dismal season isn’t going to convince Lebron that this team has talent. If Lebron comes here, other factors (LA, endorsements, Blake Griffin, new GM/coach) will weigh far more heavily.
So personally, I’m just going to throw up my hands and just watch for the sake of watching. I certainly don’t expect the team to win, but there’s no real value in hoping that they lose.
If we somehow get into the bottom 2
Would we have to trade the pick to sign LBJ?
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
I wonder if they try to trade Baron
And if they do, can the Clips really make an argument that they’re any more talented than a team like the Nets?
For all of his flaws, I bet Baron’s skills are still respected by his peers.
If you get the first pick...
then you try to move Baron. If you’re bringing in John Wall and Blake Griffin together, the talent argument is pretty easy to make.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 11, 2010 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
Well yea
but assuming the most likely thing happens and they don’t get John Wall?
I wonder if the plan really is to just trade the pick (if it’s in the 8-12 range) or if it’s to try to dump Baron at all costs.
For example, you’ve gotta think NYK needs a run and gun PG to fit D’Antoni’s system. There aren’t too many of those around. I think they could do a lot worse than Baron Davis.
The question is, if Lebron just stays in Cleveland, do you do that deal and just dump Baron?
I vote no
I can’t see the logic in just dumping Baron. And then what? You try to pick up a different point guard? I don’t get it. Unless the plan is to go young and get Rubio or something.
by Michael White on Mar 11, 2010 8:04 PM PST up reply actions
Mentioned another place but the Bucks are winning with Brandon Jennings having one of the worse seasons a rookie can have
Baron doubles Jennings production in every area yet the on guy who holds it down is the number one option bogut. We are built closely like the Bucks if they win games with a poor shooting PG and a number one option Center how come we can’t do the same with a PG that shoots better and passes and steals better. Bogut and Kaman are the X factors here people it always has been.
Bro...
The Bucks play in the East. ’Nuff said.
Chupa! Chupa!
by DonaldSterlingSucks on Mar 12, 2010 1:01 AM PST up reply actions
Yea
I’m not in any way encouraging dumping Baron. But I wonder if the new regime will want to blow it up and just go young.
Kaman still fits because he’s a rare commodity at center and he’s still fairly young. Baron is clearly past his prime and has a lot of money coming to him.
Your post just got me thinking a bit I guess. Do they really want to trade a lottery pick who is young, talented and cheap? Or would they instead try to unload Baron?
if I had to trade Baron if it was Wall
But I don’t trade Baron just because I want to
I would - BD's contract sux
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
But then what?
You save Sterling some money, but you still don’t have a PG. I realize it gives you cap flexibility, but its not like there is somebody out there who can replace his production at a cheaper rate (IMO.)
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 7:48 AM PST up reply actions
i dont value him as highly as you do
He’s declining. Three years left on a ridiculous contract. Whatever trade value he has is also declining. I would trade if the opportunity presents itself. Like a pg free agent signing. Mdsr won’t truly be gone until this is resolved.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 12, 2010 8:14 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Ya, I get that
The logic that the BEST oppurtunity the Clips have to trade Baron is now probably sounds about right. He is playing good basketball this year, and as madglove says he can help some teams. But trade value is a funny thing and it depends how quickly he declines. At a point, Baron becomes one of those “expiring contracts” that people love so much.
I just don’t see an endgame just unloading him. Like I said, I can get behind an idea to move Baron, try to get Rubio and rebuild with a young core of Rubio, Griffin and EJ. If that’s the plan I have no beef. I just want there to be a plan.
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
Wasn't it Dunleavy's "system" that was hurting BD
Seriously, that was my view. I thought for sure it would be yours.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
I think that's part of it
But I also think he’s declining – there are three years left on the contract.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Guys like him are prone to decline
He got by mostly on athleticism and quickness. Well, guess what. That starts fading after 30. Older players have to rely on smarts and guile, a good post up game, and a good jump shot.
Baron can do some of those things, but not all. It’s no wonder he is declining as he ages, I guess.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Right - which is why the contract is too long given the cost
Either we stick with him for another 2 years and trade him for another expensive contract or we try to unload him now. Olshey’s going to be busy.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Could we dump BD and go for D Wade?
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Hate to say it
but I’d do it in a heartbeat. But why the hell would Dwyane want to come to LAC as an underdog team. He could possibly live in Kobe’s shadow the moment hemoves over here.
He doesn't seem to care about that like LBJ apparently does
On a related note, today I heard that the Clips are high on Olshey and plan to keep him as the GM. They’re looking for a coach.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Also, D Wade's current team sux
He’d be in a far better position with the Clippers. No one’s talking about it so I guess it’s not in the cards. Too bad.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
He's more likely to stay or go to Chicago
Chicago is his hometown and they offer a pretty interesting core for him too (Noah, Deng, Rose and Hinrich). He would also relegate EJ to the bench as well so he doesn’t fit as nicely with our existing core players.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
why can't he just play pg?
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Because he's not a PG?
he handles the ball a lot but he isn’t a PG.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 12:02 AM PST up reply actions
I agree with Jax
with Baron out and Wade in, you would have Wade as the PG instead of forcing EJ to the bench and then picking up a different point guard.
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 7:49 AM PST up reply actions
call it what you want
Just get the ball in his hands.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 12, 2010 8:17 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Heat will be able to sign Wade and another max
either Bosh or Amare or Boozer, or…LBJ. That would be crazy if they paired up (doubtful, though).
I think Wade’s destinations are, in order: Miami, Chicago, NY
He doesn’t want to come to LA (but I would love to have him).
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Olshey
is suppose to be a pretty talented guy but he doesn’t have that much experience compared to a lot of the top front office guys. It would also appear that DTS would being doing things on the cheap again.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 11:20 PM PST up reply actions
I'm told they really like him
Don’t know enough about it to say that they are doing this to save cash.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Will he get a raise?
or are they paying him below market rate for a GM? Are we getting another crony for DTS or someone who will actually be able to exert some influence. If we get a established guy we know DTS means business. Olshey, whether fair or not, might not have the juice to make the tough decisions.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 12:03 AM PST up reply actions
If this is directed to me
Friend who is a friend of top Clipper brass.
My thought is that if Olshey is considered an up and comer (don’t know that he is) and if they hire a credible coach, things could be looking up for the free agent signing period.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
You need a ruler to track responses sometimes...
I wish there was some sort of grid. But yes, it was directed at you. Jax. Not a bad answer.
I think the question is is how much authorship did Olshey have in recent and not so recent signings. If he put together all the deals in let’s say, the last year… that’s solid work. Then what coach would he match up well with? Would somebody like JVG be a good match? Awful hard to know from where we sit.
I don't get the impression that LBJ is obsessed with being the man
He ain’t Kobe. Look at his assist numbers. I’m sure he has an ego, like all the stars, but I don’t think it dominates him.
In fact, I suspect his loyalty to Cleveland will outweigh his desire to be a global icon.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
"Could we dump BD and go for D Wade? "
Hell ya, that works for me.
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 7:48 AM PST up reply actions
Another possible way to get Wade would be a sign and trade
with Eric Gordan somehow involved. A BD/Wade backcourt would be pretty sweet.
I’d do it.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Whatever would get us D Wade
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Sign and Trade BD, EJ, and maybe a future pick.
I love EJ, but if we can bad Wade, that STILL leaves us with cap space for a second start. LeBron + Wade as + Phil. I honestly don’t know how I’d react.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's doing down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Mar 12, 2010 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
bad = nab
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's doing down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Mar 12, 2010 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
ESPN has the Clippers taking Greg Monroe with the tenth pick
The moving p logic is kind of strange because the BPA mock draft at 8th is Cole Aldrich. With DJ Monroe would be the better fit anyway.
He's considered...
a less athletic version of Lamar Odom. I think most would consider him a PF but he could play some SF.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
He would provide good depth
Gooden is likely gone, he lives out of a hotel room and he hasn’t even shipped his bed to LA which is the only time he’s ever NOT that. He mentioned it in a interview recently, I think that implies he won’t be back next year. Rhino is a good bench player, not sure if he comes back either.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 8:44 PM PST up reply actions
How so?
We would be missing a starting center. DJ is nowhere ready to be a starter.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 9:02 PM PST up reply actions
I was looking at Monroe stepping in. He is a center. Untested of course
or we could trade up like the Kevin Love, OJ Mayo trade 2 seasons ago. Possibly using our Minny pick as bait.
Umm
I said he was more of a 3 or a 4. He isn’t big enough to play center.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
i'm just down on Kaman right now
but i remember how effective he was when he was paired up with Brand.
There's slim to no chance we win the lottery
But the players that would fill the biggest void on the Clippers are Al Farouq Aminu or Wesley Johnson. They are projected to go as high as #3 and as low as #8. Those two are the highest rated small forwards and probably the only two SF with tons of potential. If we can drop atleast a couple spots, it would make a big difference.
by MannyA on Mar 11, 2010 8:12 PM PST via mobile reply actions
1% isn't too bad of a chance
not to mention we have a 1% of getting the 2nd, 3rd or 4th picks. Or a 4% chance of getting a top 4 pick.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 8:32 PM PST up reply actions
Actually only the top 3 picks are lottery. (I think)
After the top 3, it goes in order of worst record remaining.
by MannyA on Mar 11, 2010 8:35 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yep
I stand corrected, so we have a 3% chance of landing a top 3 pick then.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 11, 2010 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
I too am thinking about the virtues of dropping a couple spots
Get to the 7th or 8th spot, and maybe one of those SFs drops our way. But not at the cost of losing 20 in a row. I don’t think I could be so committed to the draft, even if I tried.
But at the rate we’re going, maybe a couple teams below us will get a little hot and bypass us. I’m rooting for them to win more than for us to lose.
My original question was whether we could draft a guy and then keep him on stand by until we find out whether Lebron wants to join us. Others seem to think it’s plausible. It would be nice if we could play it both ways until the last possible moment. As madglove pointed out, though, the question is how well we’d handle the necessary maneuvers.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Silverclip, yes, we can play it both ways
We don’t have to trade our pick or even renounce the bird right to our players unless we are gonna definitely gonna use the cap save on a max player. If Lebron (or Wade &JJ) reject us, then we keep our pick and our bird rights. If Lebron agrees to come to the Clippers, then they trade the pick or make whatever moves are necessary. At first I believed that going after Lebron was gonna hurt the team, but it’s actually not.
by MannyA on Mar 12, 2010 7:04 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Guys, don't worry about trading the pick, if we have to trade it, it's a good thing cause it means Lebron!
If Lebron agrees to come to the Clips, Then you worry about trading whoever we picked, it’s not hard to trade a lottery pick. But since Lebron probably isn’t coming we don’t have to worry about that at all. And for those curious to what will happen if we get the #1 or #2 pick and then Lebron wants to come to the Clips? Trust me, that’s a GREAT problem to have, and the Clippers can figure it out!
by MannyA on Mar 11, 2010 8:33 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Also Steve
I don’t think a couple of wins at the end of the season are gonna convince anybody to sign with the Clips. 25 years of losing and being the league laughingstock trumps anything the Clips can do to end this season. What’s gonna get someone here is the cap space and the “potential” we have with Griffin, Gordon, and an allstar center. Remember,
by MannyA on Mar 11, 2010 8:44 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Dump Kaman
Go after iggy or trade for turner evan turner is our best shot at looking anything like the thunder. LBJ is not coming wade and so forth. We should go after david lee and have blake play limted mins till he gets healthy. On draft express the one of few knocks on blake was bad knees ? so that has me worried so bring in david lee and trade for evan turner who i think is the next b roy or better.
Looking like the Thunder?
You missed the part where even though the Thunder don’t have a center, they have a SF who scores 30 points a game. And nobody is trading away Evan Turner.
But ya, dump Kaman for nothing! Woo ho!
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 7:53 AM PST up reply actions
Tanking
I hate tanking. I hate the fact that the worst team gets the best odds at the first pick. It guarantees continued failure.
Anybody notice that the same teams tend to stay at the bottom of the league, and the same other teams tend to stay at the top.
Rewarding bad management with high picks just perpetuates their badness.
Insuring bad decisions ensures more bad decisions.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Anybody notice that the same teams tend to stay at the bottom of the league, and the same other teams tend to stay at the top.
Yes, but I think it’s a tough sell to say the reason is do to tanking. I think it more has to do with the soft cap system in basketball which allow teams to hold onto their stars such that it puts others at a competitive disadvantage when trying to sign these star players. The NBA is a star driven league and guys like Duncan and Kobe simply never leave their team. When crap teams actually do land a star (like Cleveland) they get good. It wasn’t like Cleveland went through a managerial transformation where there bad managers all of a sudden became good.
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
True
Cleveland was bad before LeBron, now they’re good. They used a high draft pick that they received because the sucked (and tanked) to get him.
Oklahoma City was bad, now they’re good. They used three straight high draft picks to get Durant, Westrbrook and Harden, and traded for a fourth high draft pick.
Having the draft in reverse order of season finish may be too socialist or too rewarding of mediocrity, but it is designed the way it is for a reason, and sometimes it works. Of course, the nature of the NBA and the dominant impact players means that you need a LeBron or a Durant.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 12, 2010 9:24 AM PST up reply actions
The Spurs lucked into Duncan
They had a good coach, the Admiral gets hurt, the team does poorly for that one year, they get Duncan and the rest is history.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Which I think is great
What happens if Duncan goes to one of the annual bottom dwellers rather than a team that had fallen on hard luck?
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
I think the NBA is on the right track
but the lotto system would be better if all of the non-playoff teams got the same amount of balls. Then the only tanking would be by 8 seeds who would rather miss the playoffs and enter the lottery than get swept, and I doubt that would happen very often.
I think the poorer franchies would have to look for more creative ways to improve rather than settling for a high pick year after year after year if they weren’t guaranteed the most balls.
Call it the NBA’s version of welfare reform. Incentivize progress.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
I need to read the Matthew verse in your sig line
because I’m continuing to worry (about the Clippers). On that note, if there is a God, clearly the Clippers are being punished, for what I do not know.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Seriously?
clearly the Clippers are being punished, for what I do not know.
You do know about our owner right?
But he's not being punished
He’s making money, living the life, owning a profitable team.
Neither are the players. They are millionaires.
We are the ones who are being punished. What did we do?
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Haha yea I feel you
But we CHOSE to be fans of this team. We know who the owner is, we know how he runs this team, we know this team’s pathetic history…yet we support it. How can we really complain?
I mean, why is Sterling making money? In part because we keep paying for tickets, merchandise, etc. If absolutely nobody went to games and nobody tuned in on the radio or tv, then he wouldn’t be able to negotiate local tv and radio deals.
It’s our choice to support a team owned by a bastard. Can’t complain about what we get.
And we pat ourselves on the back for being knowledgeable fans
How are we not lemmings? We support a team that is run in a way that ensures mediocrity.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Mediocrity?
that would be a step up, mediocrity around here would be progress.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
We don't know Sterling well enough
to know whether or not he is being punished. People like him, the rich and ruthless, are often tortured people on the inside.
I wouldn’t judge him by his outsides. He may be experiencing a punishment that we are not aware of.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Mine too
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Except that we ARE being punished
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
I just read a study
where it said that the Clippers have the highest rate of masochists among their fan base in the league.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
The worst team doesn't get the #1 pick anyway
So it’s not quite accurate to say the draft system rewards the wost teams. It’s not like the NFL.
The system is intended to curb tanking. That’s why the team with the worst record may have the best chance, but isn’t at all guaranteed the top overall pick.
I mean think about it. The team with the worst record has a 25% chance to get the top pick. Sure that’s higher than other teams, but what that really means is that there’s a 75% chance that they WON’T get the top pick. It’s really not much of an incentive to tank. Teams do it anyway though.
Personally, I think there shouldn’t be any weighted system and all 14 teams should have equal chances to win the top pick. That way there’s zero incentive to lose and every team might as well try to win the rest of the way.
It doesn't prevent tanking, though
The NBA is the most notorious for tanking. NFL teams rarely do. They have a short schedule and feel that it is important to finish on a positive note.
I think all non-playoff teams should have the same lottery odds. That way, a bubble team can land a top rookie that will perhaps put them over the top, rather than the top rookies always having to go the the crappy teams to wallow.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Teams would still tank
the bottom playoff teams would rather enter the lottery than get slaughtered in the 1st round. A 25% chance at landing a top 3 pick seems worth it. Now if they change the rules up a bit and only the 1st overall pick is determined by the lottery and the rest from the win-loss record then it might deter tanking.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Perhaps some would tank
but it would be harder to explain to your fan base why you tanked away a chance at the playoffs.
I do think it would reduce it. Your plan is ok, too. I hate the tanking.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Basing everything on W-L would make it worse
A few years back, Mark Madsen shot like 9 three-pointers in a game for the T-Wolves so they could drop a spot in the standings and get a guaranteed higher pick (assuming they didn’t luck into a top-3 pick).
Here’s an idea I emailed to truehoop (unfortunately never published) in May last year:
“Keep the current rules in place for the top 3 spots. Then, after the top 3 are decided, devise a second lottery for spots 4-14, but weight it much more in favor of the worst teams. For the 4th pick, give the worst team 75% odds, the 2nd worst team 10%, 3rd worst 5%, 4th 3%, 5th-11th all 1%. Do the same for the 5th-14th picks, tweaking the %s along the way (for 5th I would make it 75-10-5-3-2-1-1-1-1-1, 6th 75-10-5-3-2-2-1-1-1, 7th 75-10-5-3-2-2-2-1, 8th 75-10-5-3-3-2-2, 9th 75-10-5-5-3-2, 10th 75-10-5-5-5, 11th 75-10-10-5, 12th 75-15-10, 13th 75-25)
In this system, teams are not necessarily punished for winning more games. Indiana beating Milwaukee on the last day wouldn’t have definitively (barring a miracle) precluded them from getting a better pick. The teams with the lowest odds would get more chances, which is exciting (although in reality their odds for moving way up would be slim). Meanwhile, teams with the worst records are still heavily favored to finish high in the draft, but it’s still highly likely that there would be a lot of shuffling around. In fact, the odds of at least one team moving up is 1-(.75)^11 = 96%.
It’s only a slight tweak, but that’s why I think the NBA would do it."
I should have said
Package Kaman for turner or anybody else he’s overpaid for what he does just like bdiddy.
Kamans contract is actually pretty good.
Centers tend to get overpaid because talented height is really hard to come by in the NBA. Kaman made the Allstar team, is still in his prime and is one of the few true centers that can actually give you some offense. At about $10 or $11 mil/year, he is at a really fair price.
by MannyA on Mar 12, 2010 10:48 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Losing is winning, and so is winning
Such a special time of the year in Clipland.
I, for one, am fired up about this. The team has showed that they can play well on occasion against the right opponent and at home. We’ve been waiting for them to gel and get it together both for an extended period with Team One and now for awhile with Team Two. It hasn’t come close to happening with either one, although I suppose you could say we were close right before the Big Funk Up.
What we’ve also seen, in dramatic fashion, is that this team is quite skilled at the old uncanny Clipper ability to motivate the opponent to excellence while finding ways to lose. We never really quite know from night to night what the crippling weakness will be (aside from the season-ending injury catastrophe, of course), but it’s usually something. The Clips can lose with and to any of those teams! You know it’s true! It’s the Clippers!
Sadly, we don’t have Dunleavy on the sidelines any more, as he was a master of both the intentional and the inadvertent tank. But I think that playing DeAndre Jordan a few extra minutes is exactly what will make the difference. He’s raw and clumsy enough to create that timely turnover, and he has the ability to tantalize and entertain the crowd at the same time. Remember that it was the extraordinary tanking/best effort of the young Kaman that took the Clips to the doorstep of the Dwight Howard pick, where we ended up with our longtime star player Shaun Livingston, who was wooed away to join the deeply missed Thornton-Singleton-Ross nucleus in Washington.
It’s DJordan time! Let the big kid loose! Let him play, let him roam, let him rebound and run free! More 30-40-60-70 foot lobs! Let’s see a lob on the inbound after a basket!
I’d like to see Kaman step out and start working on the 3pt shot too. And do more ball-handling. He should just pretend he’s Novitzki, just as an exercise, work on his German. A lot more Novak. C’mon! Haven’t the Novakians been patient enough already! Mardy Collins put in some good work against DWade, didn’t he? That should get him some minutes. I’m worried about Gordon’s leg: I don’t like this thing at all, and we shouldn’t be surprised if he shuts it down for the rest of the season. Doesn’t this thing have just a taste of Kaman’s Foot 0809 to it? Pretty good one, I must say.
Baron should just keep doing what he’s doing. The man is a zen master, a prophet. Talk about your Moses. BD is all about crossing the desert, taking his time, showing calm, steady leadership, tanking like no other. It’s a beautiful thing to watch, quite selfless. You think those 1-12 games go down easy? They take their toll, man. It’s hard. They get to you. Losing to win requires a special effort, the strength that is only found in weakness and failure. a profound humility.
It’s beautiful.
Maybe that's the Clippers' destiny
Everyone else is playing every year to win the game; the Clippers are playing to win the lottery. They are in an alternate universe.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Of course they are
You knew that.
And that’s why we were afraid to get rid of Dunleavy. The Clippers are more than capable of making a monumentally bad managerial decision that sends the team into a tailspin like we’ve never seen, an epic meltdown.
But I happen to be optimistic that won’t happen.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 12, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Think about it
DTS actually makes more money by failing to field a competitive team and continuing to rely on lottery picks than he would make if he actually spent the money to put a winning product on the court.
Which is the real reason why they didn’t want to get rid of MDSr. They might hire someone who would actually lead them to consistent playoff appearances and thus to lose money. It was worth the five year $5 M per contract to ensure mediocrity. They had to get rid of him when he somehow cleared enough cap space to sign a top free agent who would lead the team to the promised land despite his mediocrity.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
I dunno
I think he was hoping Dunleavy would build a winner. They got closer than ever before, and I think Sterling enjoyed the flavor.
I hope he was reluctant to get rid of Dunleavy until he was confident someone else was ready. But let’s be honest. Dunleavy, while he certainly left much to be desired, was the best GM Sterling has had.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Right - I was just being a snark
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Oh
I’m gullible today. Being at work saps me of my sense of humor.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
The proof will be in the hiring of a respectable coach soon
If they do, then we know they’re serious about free agents. If they don’t, then we know they are not interested in putting a winning team together.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Totally agree
Though I must admit that if you’re right that they’re keep Neil Olshey, then I’m already wary about where this is headed.
But if they don’t hire a quality coach, then I’ll be really scared.
Yes, although
if he really put the recent deals together, perhaps he’s better respected around the league then we know.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Yeah, I agree as well...
Who the Clips hire as coach, and when, I guess, will tell us everything we need to know about where DTS’ big head is at.
So… when does it happen? And when does it HAVE to happen?
Are you two, mikey p and Jax on board with the “let Lebron choose a coach angle”? That sounds nuts to me.
I would let him choose a coach
Why not?
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
If Kaman develops a 3 point shot it would be glorious
It would be insane. Assuming Griffin gives you anything in the paint at all, Kaman becomes a beast by running pick and pops on all points of the court, and being able to score inside when necessary.
Naturally, Kaman will still be the worst all star in the history of the NBA (nay the history of all sports) but being a 7 footer who can score in the paint, hit a jumper, hit a 3, hit a free throw, play defense, and rebound would be just swell.
by Michael White on Mar 12, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Kaman's not the worst
I’d put A.C. Green, B.J. Armstrong and Jamaal Magloire ahead of Kaman on the worst all stars list.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 12, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
There are other candidates
Rik Smits, Jayson Williams, Mehmet Okur, you could add Mo Williams and Jameer Nelson (who made it because their teams deserved more than one all star) and Kenyon Martin.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
How about every year Vince Carter was voted a starter?
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
Draft question
If our pick stays at #10, we basically pick the best available right? At that late in the lottery, you don’t pick for need I imagine. Even if that means one of the PF’s to provide depth as opposed to reaching on a SF…
best avail, for sure
You may end up trading him, even at 10. You want the best available for several reasons, but one is trade value.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Mar 12, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
We should pick best value
I think we will end up signing or trading for the SF. Outside of DJ we have no one else on the bench under contract. Turner and Wall seem like the only players NBA ready from the get go but there are a few others that could be good players off the bench for us next year.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
who wouldn't want Turner
although I would think that if we got LeBron then you would have to trade Turner for cap and positional reasons.
LeBron or Bust !!!!
If Turner is a Clipper
he’ll immediately sit out the pre-season with a sore back only to have further tests that reveal that his broken back never healed and needs to retire.
If he’s on any other team, he’ll have a great career.
He would be healthy for one year
just enough to whet our appetite and think we’ve turned that corner. Thats when the curse will strike and destroy our hopes and dreams. It’s too easy to kick us when we’re already down, its better (for the curse that is) to get us when we think we are about to get our hand raised.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Mar 12, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions
I mean
even if we get #1 overall, I’d pick Turner over Wall.
And if we get bron bron, I’d trade EJ over Turner. I know I’m crazy, but I think that’s the best for this team. Move Turner or bron bron to shooting guard.
by RockyMountain on Mar 13, 2010 8:22 PM PST up reply actions
I want Turner BAD!
He can play small forward. He supposed to be like a Dwayne Wade type player only taller. I was checking out his game today against Michigan, he hit a 3 from like 35 ft to win the game. It was sick! He’s gonna be clutch!
by MannyA on Mar 12, 2010 6:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
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