Chris Kaman's Improbable Streak
When Chris Kaman scored 20 points in the Clippers first game of 2010 against the Trailblazers, he was making history. Unbeknownst to us at the time, on that date Kaman surpassed Avery Johnson's record of 53 career 20+ point games without a single 30+ point game. Since that time, he's posted 13 more 20 point games to run his record to 66.
Kaman's career high in scoring has inched up a couple of times in this the best scoring year of his career. The 27 he scored against Dallas in the fourth game of the season was his career high for about 7 weeks, until he scored 29 against Houston in December. It was always an interesting aside that he'd never actually had a 30 point game - they're not that uncommon in the NBA, after all, and Kaman was turning into a primary offensive option. But it slowly began to dawn on me that this was more than just a curiousity - that it was probably unique.
I couldn't be bothered to do the heavy lifting, but citizen John R got on the case when I whined in the comments of Wednesday's game recap about the challenges to prove my theory. I'm not completely certain how he went about it, but I assume he queried lists of 20 point scorers and the number of times they'd done it, and compared it to lists of 30 point scorers. Lo and behold, Kaman's current total of 66 20's without a 30 (the new stat 20wo30 from now on) was second only to Charles Oakley's 70. How exciting - surely Kaman would pass Oak in the near future. A massive hat tip to John R for tracking this down of course.
But wait a minute, you're saying to yourself. Didn't Steve start by saying that Kaman already has the record?
Here's what you need to know. Basketball-reference.com doesn't have individual game data from before the 1986-87 season, and if that data is available somewhere, I certainly don't know about it. Charles Oakley was a rookie in 1985-86, and then played 18 more seasons after that. In the 18 years worth of data available online about him, he scored 20 or more 70 times, with a high of 28. But what if he scored 30 in his rookie year?
I went to the Bulls media guide from last season. In all media guides, there is always a section about the history of the franchise. I found the pages for the 1985 season, and although they didn't have 82 box scores for me, they did list the Bulls high scorers for all 82 games. Lo and behold, Oak was a bit more offensive minded as a young-un. He had a 35 point effort March 15 1986 in an OT game vs. the Bucks, and scored 31 on February 25 1986 versus the Sixers. So he was out of the race before it even began.
That left Avery Johnson, the little General, as the 20wo30 champion entering the season.
Unless we eliminate him also. Turned out that AJ scored 30 in a playoff game in 1998. At any rate, Kaman certainly broke AJ's regular season record. If you want to include playoff games, then Derek Fisher was the prior record holder with 50 regular season and 9 playoff 20wo30s. In case you're wondering, Kaman's career playoff high is 15.
Phew. The record is safe.
The Oakley issue points out something that everyone needs to bear in mind of course. We don't really know if this is an all time NBA record, since we don't have data going back far enough. We know that since 1986, Kaman leads the league in career 20wo30s. And that's impressive enough, when you consider that we're talking about two dozen years of NBA history.
How unusual is this? Well, it's not just mildly surprising. Consider this - Kaman is the Clippers leading scorer this season at 19.6 points per game, but four other Clippers have scored 30 this season alone (Al Thornton, Rasual Butler, Eric Gordon and Baron Davis). Heck, Mike Taylor scored 30 last season. Of the 36 NBA players averaging 18 or better points per game this season, Kaman is the only one without a 30 point game this year, let alone during his career. You have to go down to Kevin Love, 66th in the league in points per game at 15.1 to find another player without a 30 point game in his career, and Love is only in his second season of course.
As I mentioned before, it's just not that unusual to score 30 points in an NBA game. Here is a partial list of Clippers who have done it since 1986:
Lorenzen Wright, Rory White, the aforementioned Mike Taylor, Olden Polynice (!), Ty Nesby
The late Malik Sealy, never much of a scorer, had two 30 point games in a Clippers uniform.
The list of NBA players with 30 point games in the last 24 years includes some guys I've literally never heard of. Not many, but a few:
Derrick Alston? Sasha Danilovic? Derrick Gervin? Sam Mack? Doug Smith?
It also includes names that are so out of place on a list of NBA high scorers that they are jarring:
Chucky Brown, Kwame Brown, Brian Cardinal, Quincy Douby, Acie Earl, Richie Frahm, Brevin Knight, Luke Jackson, Adam Keefe, Brad Lohaus, Rick Mahorn, Tony Massenburg, Doug Overton, Brent Price (that's Brent Price, not Mark Price), Khalid Reeves, Sharone Wright...
And of course, Robin Lopez. (In fact, more than one name is on the list solely because of recent Clippers largesse, including Lopez and Beno Udrih.)
All of those guys have 30 point games in their careers, but Chris Kaman does not. It's pretty astounding really.
What does it all mean? Hell if I know.
You have to give Chris credit for being consistent I guess. He's still in the top 20 in the league in scoring this year, and he has to maintain that average without the benefit of any major outbursts. Which means that he has managed to avoid too many no-shows in points as well.
One does worry a bit though. There have been numerous games this season where it seemed obvious he was well on his way to 30. This subject surfaced because he had 18 at halftime against the Suns on Wednesday - he finished with 24. He had 21 at halftime against the Rockets on Dec. 22 and finished with 29.
Why does he seemingly not finish games as strong as he starts them? There are a few factors, no doubt. In general, it's harder for post players to continue to score when defenses ratchet up the intensity in the fourth quarter. The NBA is currently a perimeter oriented game, and the guys with the ball in their hands tend to get the shots in crunch time. Even so, one wonders if perhaps his stamina isn't quite where it needs to be and he's wearing down over the course of a game. There was the discussion of drinking more milk earlier in the season. Or is it something more fundamental? Is he not equipped to deal with the pressure of late game situations?
Regardless of the reason, it's a fascinating stat, the 20wo30. A lot of 20 point games indicates a pretty good NBA scorer. And eventually, pretty good NBA scorers hit a big night and put up 30. Heck, as we know from the lists above, terrible NBA scorers like Brevin Knight are capable of having big nights.
Kaman will get his 30 eventually, and the record will go back to Avery Johnson (regular season) and Derek Fisher (regular season and playoffs) at that point. But until he does, we've got something to keep us interested down the stretch.
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Crap I know who Doug Smith is
I had his rookie card before. I used to be a hardcore collector of basketball cards and used to build sets for my older brother and cousin (it was practically a sweatshop!). I remember when they started making Hoops, Upper Deck and Skybox.
FA in 2010.
I can one-up you
I knew the height of Derrick Alston, Sasha Danilovic, Sam Mack and Doug Smith off the top off my head the second I read those names. A guy at my school use to quizz me in the late 90’s about the height, weight and college of random (fringe) nba players. Man, i didn’t have a life back then….
The only guy I didn’t know was Derrick Gervin and that’s probably because I didn’t see my first NBA game before 1994 (And bought NBA Live ‘95 in, say 1995). A couple years after the Iceman’s kid left the NBA.
A relative hole in my basketball knowledge
I lived in Paris from 1995 to 1998 – returning to the US just in time for the lockout. I had the web of course, but no TV, and it was just not possible to be as up on everything. Hence, a handful of late 90s 30 point scorers I haven’t heard of.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Were your children born in France?
Do they know they are French? Or worse (or better)… Parisian?
Can they say stuff like, “Je voudrait un douze escargots, sil vous plait”? Or "Excuse moi, ou est les jeunes filles?
Do they know their nicknames are Clipper Max and Clipper Zoe? Does the wife know she has a Clipper nickname too?
Do they read this blog?
so many questions
Max born in France, Zoe born in the LBC… we left when he was two and a half… and he was a late talker, so he never spoke much French, and speaks very little now, though they both have understand me when I say some of my pet phrases. They actually probably know more German than french, because I’m more of a danke bitte guy than a merci guy, for some reason. The ClipperWidow knows who she is… but none of them really read the blog. They’ll read over my should from time to time. The kids got a big kick out of the Kaman/spacetime anomaly thing last year.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
last thing...
Max loves being french… uses it to pick up middle school girls… he plays rugby and soccer…. that sort of thing
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
And everywhere you go he uses the line?
Like you take him to Disneyland or Sea World or, I don’t know, Phoenix, and he gets out of the car, looks around, then tugs you on the coat and says, “Yeah this is great Dad, but ou est les jeunes filles?”
I mean he is French, right?
Beautiful
Such nice work here.
It’s always excellent when JohnR’s superpowers are used constructively, rather than the routine sniper exchanges with Jax.
Doug Overton has a 30 point game? Does Rick Brunson?
A key feature here is the last paragraph: now we have something to keep us interested down the stretch! Will Kaman get 30? It’s the type of thing that can carry us through every game from here on out: how many points does he have at the end of the first? Did KHughes go with the early rotation in the first, limiting CK but giving him extra minutes in the 2nd? What are the stats like on Kaman’s 2nd half and 4th quarter scoring? How many times has he had 15+ at halftime? It will be extra interesting if Milph picks up this quest. And why wouldn’t they, don’t they need things to make the Milphcast interesting?
Which makes me note one way that we just saw Milph searching the stats for storylines recently. Kaman’s scoring has been a good item all year, but it occurred to me that the next best thing was Camby’s rebounding. Not to force things, but how many career 20+ rebounding games has Camby had? Is 20wo30 an even better rebounding stat, because there are so few 30+ rebounding games, and it might take Wilt off the list? Is Charles Oakley a champ in two 20wo30 categories?!
Sorry, getting sidetracked. Meant to note how Milph (and their unheralded stat person—maybe that’s the guy who needs a shout out; I’m sure they’ve given him/(her?) credit on numerous occasions, there’s probably more than one, but I never thought to notice before, and this could be a good CN character, I would think, perhaps somebody we can get to with a direct pipeline) worked the Clipper rebounding since Camby was traded stat pretty hard in the last game. And typically, it happened as the Clippers were getting absolutely massacred on the boards against Phoenix.
Any other good playing out the string (pots) storylines out there? Any fond memories of pots in the past? Christopher Kaman, as always, is a rich resource. Last year we were hoping to see Kaman-Camby. And the year before, it was the hope of being able to see Kaman 2.0 teamed with FElton. Worth noting, for those hoping to see the 20wo30 string broken by a Kaman outburst, that Kaman disappointed us in both those quests. He owes us.
And I hope that this fantastic close look at the wonders of Kaman serves as a prompt for the long-awaited in-depth 3.0 analysis, rather than filler that is supposed to make us forget about the big picture. 66 20wo30 games is awesome, but I think that there has to be more gold in the kategories of field goal percentage and rebounding. I have to say that the way Kaman was playing the other night, on his way to 24 points in a blowout, was about as good as I remember seeing him, especially going to the basket and hitting around the rim. His drives were much more fluid than usual.
And there was also a classic Kaman play that shouldn’t be forgotten, which I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere, when he came up with the ball in the open court and dribbled out on the break, impending disaster of course, with only Nash to beat, but he managed to make it past the foul line without messing up. And then, about 3 or 4 feet from the rim, against Steve Nash, Kaman turns backwards, almost 180 degrees, to give the ball to BDavis trailing the play. BD makes a pass for the Clips to finish the play. Maybe I’m exaggerating how close Kaman actually was to the hoop, but he was going against Steve Nash! What was Nash going to do? Challenge him at the rim? The fact is, there are all sorts of things that Nash might have done, and even more ways that Kaman might have messed up the play and turned the ball over. Which is why the play wasn’t even especially notable, or at least not at first. But think about it. That play was crazy. I, for one, can firmly attest to getting phenomenal entertainment value out of watching Chris Kaman.
Camby has 39 20+ rebound games in his career
The closest he got to 30 was 27 against Chicago last season. I think that was the overtime game when Thornton stole the ball from Zbo and bricked a shot to lose the game (after the 4 point play by Chicago forced overtime to begin with.)
I also saw that in one of his 20+ rebound games he scored 33 points. It was 5 years ago in Denver against Phoenix. So now that I know that Camby has at least 1 30+ game, I figured I should look up how many of those he has. He has 3 of them, with his high being a 37 point game back in 1997.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
He was a scorer early...
That’s an interesting topic as well… players come out of college, where they were big fish in littler ponds, and everyone arrives in the NBA as a scorer. So Marcus has a couple of 30 point games in Toronto, and one since. Oakley had two as a rookie, and none since. There are other examples as well… Dennis Rodman and Doug Christie come to mind as players who were much more willing to shoot early in their careers, before they settled into a role.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
I don’t remember Camby from the late 90’s, but I’m curious what his game was like that would have allowed for 30 points, particularly early. That game in 05, I can picture that a ton of them were on put backs, seeing as how he got 20 rebounds. But to score 37 points, while being Marcus Camby? It’s not like he had an offensive game and lost it. Was he just super athletic at the time and able to run the floor and get a bunch of easy baskets? Maybe that crooked jump shot of his was actually straight back then.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
Camby was a great college player at UMass
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 5, 2010 9:24 AM PST up reply actions
I vaguely remember that
I was a bit young though. That’s what I was asking. What was his game like? I assume he was in perfect physical shape and he could run and dunk.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
I couldn't locate his college stat's, but he won the
1995-96 NCAA AP Player of the Year
1995-96 NCAA John R. Wooden Award
1995-96 NCAA Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year Award
Coach?
John Calipari
In that sense, coaches really do not matter ;-)
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 5, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
Camby's college stats
Can be found here http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cambyma01.html
I remember him in college, he was a bit like Patrick Ewing, he took a lot of mid range jump shots and he had a fade-away jumper. He was a pretty good scorer in college and one would have though he’d be a 15 ppg scorer eventually.. and he was his rookie year (14.8) but then tallied off and later became primarily a defensive and rebounding specialist.
FA in 2010.
BTW
That was the game when Gordon and Thornton blew the game.
Just re-read CS’s breakdown from the game. I don’t remember it being hilarious at the time, but re-reading it now, the thought of Al Thornton essentially hijacking the play that had worked all night with 10 seconds left has me laughing hysterically.
http://www.clipsnation.com/2008/12/18/696812/the-clippers-last-play-in
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
I remember it well
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
What about Oakley?
Is 39 an amazing number of 20+ rebounding games? I’m not that interested in Camby’s scoring, to tell you the truth, especially after he showed an impressive inability to put up points as a Clipper. But his rebounding and level of activity was amazing.
Makes me curious about Dwight Howard, the premier rebounder of the day. Is he racking up the 20+ games? What about Rodman? (Did Rodman ever score 30? Good question.) I’m assuming that Wilt more or less averaged 20+ rebounds at some point, back when he was scoring 50 ppg. The other great Wilt stat from that era was that he played something crazy like 47 minutes per game. But how many 30+ rebound games have there been? I’d be surprised if it’s more than 5, but I assume that it has happened.
And I’m still curious about Oakley, since he had such an impressive 20wo30 scoring streak, even though it wasn’t real, since he scored 30 as a rookie.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
Oakley only had 19 with an asterik
as SP mentions, BB-ref doesn’t have his rookie year.
His high game for rebounds was 35 in 1988 (he also had 26 points in the contest.)
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
No!
Great work, MW. The 35 rebound game is very impressive, even if it ruins his 20wo30 combo.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Howard already has 38!
High game was 26.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
Howard
He needs to put up a 30+ rebound game. Much more important than winning a championship. Ask Wilt.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
Rodman had 159 games with 20+ rebounds
High mark of 34.
And yes, he had 3 game of over 30+ points.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Wow.
That’s a lot.
How many 30+ rebound games?
One thing to note, on the 20+ rebound games, is that there has to be a lot of offensive rebounds in those games, and a high number of putbacks and scores. It seems like it would be very difficult, for instance, to have 20+ rebounds and to score less than 10 points. So when Oakley gets 35 rebounds, he puts up 25 points, and a bunch of those must have been little putbacks.
Thinking about it, the rebounding stat is probably a key to Wilt’s ridiculous scoring average number, not to mention the 100 point game. The main thing in the 100, as I recall (I think I still have my 70s first edition of the Basketball Encyclopedia somewhere), was that he was on fire from the free throw line, a rarity for him of course. But one way to average 50 ppg is to be able to rebound every shot that you miss, and put it back in, all while playing the entire game every night.
Oakley could actually hit shots, as opposed to Rodman, who was much more specialized.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
5 games of 30+ rebounds
I agree with your point though.
But interestingly, looking at Rodman, of his 5 30+ rebounding efforts, he didn’t reach double digit points in 3 of them including a game of 32 rebounds and 8 points. That’s pretty nuts.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
Rodman
Not to evoke memories of QRoss, but Rodman was a scorer in college (he went to some tiny, DII school in Oklahoma – a college buddy of mine saw him play in college). I’ve often thought you could trace Rodman’s career, with a hint of madness or at least instability, as he gradually began to forget completely about offense and obsess over rebounding (and defense of course). Sort of like wandering thru the Van Gogh museum in Amsterdam (arranged chronologically) and watching Vincent evolve from a mediocre (but stable) representational artist into a brilliant (and insane) impressionist. But I remember, vividly, watching Rodman later in his career get an offensive rebound, 2 feet from the rim, with no one in his way, and passing the ball out to a guard. He began to completely ignore the very idea of scoring.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Like the Van Gogh analogy
Totally agree.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
It's Monsieur Perrin to you...
Living in Paris, “sort of like wandering through the Van Gogh museum…” That’s right. You heard me. That’s exactly what it’s like! Whenever I think of Rodman and his career I think of my stumble through the Van Gogh museum in 1979…
and I’m assuming we’re pronouncing it Goff here at CN today, while we’re at it. Isn’t that a Woody Allen joke in Manhattan? “He said Van Goff, didn’t he?” Funny to compare the Mel Brooks movies discussed earlier to Woody Allen movies. Does Blazing Saddles hold up better than Bananas? I remembering literally falling out of my seat laughing at both of them. Producers/Young Frankenstein vs. Annie Hall/Manhattan? How do we bring the comparison back to Dennis Rodman and Van Gogh?
no comparison
I can watch any Woody Allen movie… even Bananas, even Everything you wanted to know about Sex, even Shadows and Fog…. tomorrow and love it. Annie Hall and Manhattan are two of the greatest movies ever made, and stand the test of time beautifully, despite Diane Keaton’s wardrobe.
Yes, it was Manhattan… He was complaining about the pretentiousness of the Diane Keaton character… “Van Goff… what is that? Like an Arab she spoke. I don’t talk about orgasms, I’m from Philadelphia. What does that even mean?”
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
But shockingly
Mel Brooks is funnier than Woody Allen. Mel Brooks is the funniest man ever. In the Sid Caesar retrospective show, a bunch of guys sitting around, Larry Gelbart, etc., a veritable comedy hall of fame, and every one of them said, yeah, we were funny, Woody was funny, but there was never anybody as funny as Mel.
It’s true, from my experience.
But you’re right. Woody Allen is a vastly superior filmmaker. But Mel has a nice track record himself, with The Producers, YF. And he made bank on The Producers Broadway show.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 11:39 PM PST up reply actions
That Kaman play
That was quite a play, to be certain. Everyone assumed it would be a disaster. In the end, I think he got a bit lucky, though he does have some surprising skills for a guy his size that allowed him to pull it off. As a rule of thumb, when seven footers get the ball on the run in the open court, it doesn’t end well unless they have a clear path. The first move, to veer away from Nash, was quite deft. The next one is when he got a little luck – he picked up his dribble and went in the air, and I don’t think he had any idea who was behind him when he did that. He happened to find BD, who found Gooden.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
pots storylines of recent years...
Generally include marginal players getting minutes, like Fazekas and Novak and Acker. I suppose it’s a statement of the not so terrible state of the team that we’re not dealing with any of that this year.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Now, now....
DJ is NOT Nick Fazekas.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Perhaps
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Nope
Fazekas is obviously much better. Which is why he’s in Kazhakstan now.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
The implication being
NBA GMs are never wrong?
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
2010 pots storylines
Seems like there’s an embarassment of riches this time around.
Kim Hughes coaching. Transition from the MDSr system. Modest returns thus far on this one, not the immediate liberation celebration some might have expected, but relatively predictable. The little win streak was nice, especially after the string of losses, but the two Phoenix games have been a set back. Now the Clips are facing a tough patch in the schedule.
New players through trade. This “assessment period,” which we have to assume will end up being nothing, is a pretty strong play from the pots perspective. Gooden, Outlaw and Blake replacing Camby, Thornton and Telfair is a relatively compelling tossup.
Eric Gordon’s sophomore season. Upswing or downswing? Undecided as yet, I would think. Worth noting that getting Gordon recognition and breaking down the stats and development of Gordon, Mayo, and Restbwook was a huge pots storyline last year. Thornton’s emergence as a “wookie” late in the season before was a strong pots item. The Mike Taylor Experience was in the mix back then too.
Agree that what’s missing, thankfully, is the scrubfest. Not that I don’t enjoy the Fazeke of it all. DJordan is a much better version, one that actually matters. DJordan is probably the major potsline, when you think about it.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
I've seen Kaman go coast to coast a few times.
It can be pretty impressive.
Here's the classic one
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Don't even have to watch it
Although it’s always nice to get another look at the flowing locks.
Greatest play ever. Kaman had an opportunity to match it in the play against Phoenix, if he had leaped in the air and turned and found no one, and then somehow kept rising for the reverse slam. Didn’t happen though.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
John R's superpowers...
Made me laugh, but it’s true, he’s the advanced stat guru of all time, wears a big cape and a Karl Rove mask, bangs out spreadsheets and data in the blink of an eye. It’s such a waste when he gets stuck in those weird, obviously-you-sir-are-an-idiot arguments with C. Jax et al. Not that I don’t love Jax but he doesn’t have powers you know?
Oh Jax has powers...
Jax has something better than powers… he has a Deep Throat-style source inside the Clippers.
“Obviously you sir are an idiot!” made me laugh, sort of like Keith Olberman “special topic” speak (or like a guy I met once, walking through the Van Gogh museum…), so we’re even.
Still waiting to hear what really happened with the MDSr demotion
Soon
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 8, 2010 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
Fascinating
but not entirely surprising. Chris has to earn his points the hard way – down low, except he is barely a 50% shooter. He doesn’t get to the line much, and he doesn’t shoot 3’s.
He averages 16 FGAs per game. For him to have a 30 pt game he will probably have to attempt over 20 shots and get to the line a few times. I’m sure it will happen at some point. Better this year than next when he has Griffin next to him.
Do not worry. (Matthew 6:27)
If there is a point to all this, this approaches it
You don’t want Kaman’s usage going up any higher.
So here you have a guy who is getting a reasonably efficient 20 and 9 and doesn’t seem to have a me-first instinct in his body with a need to go out and get his and get to 30.
When he gets to 30 it will be because he had an extra efficient night, not because he hogged the ball.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
I agree
While I am quite the fan of scorers, I’ve been a bit surprised that people are upset or disappointed with the lack of 30+ games from EJ and Kaman. I view this Kaman discussion as all in good fun. But with EJ, people were using the lack of 30+ point games to criticize him or Baron or the offense; which I don’t see.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not upset but
if he’s efficient he should shoot more
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Gordon and Kaman: very different scorers
Interesting to make a comparison.
“all in good fun” is the key statement here. Kaman is having a great season, and he has been playing well on a consistent basis. If you want to look at him more seriously, the note to make is the way that his rebounding has improved recently. The 20wo30 streak is just an anomaly. One of the things is that other guys, like Gordon, Thornton, and even Mike Taylor, show that they can score and then they have a night when they’re hot, and they go for 30. But part of the reason why Kaman hasn’t crossed over is that he’s a different type of scorer, that he’s going to take his 15 or 16 shots, and none of them will be 3s. And you don’t want him to take more than that. So JohnR seems to be exactly right, that it will happen eventually when he has an extra efficient night.
Extra efficiency would entail him both hitting his jumper and finishing around the basket, and shooting his free throws. Free throws and getting calls are probably an important factor. One thing leads to another. His jumper goes in, so they step out to guard him. He finishes around the basket, so they start fouling him.
mp mentions that “he is barely a 50% shooter.” This is part of the evolution toward 3.0 (and beyond). We remember from seasons past that SP broke down Kaman’s fg% pretty carefully, and he was always one or 1.5 layups around the basket away from having a respectable fg% and being a better scorer, and that was just to get him up to 12 to 15 ppg, to go along with his strong rebounding numbers. The 3.0 era commenced with the addition of the jumper being added with unprecedented quality and quantity. (When noting Channing Frye’s sudden 3 point explosion, it’s worth mentioning that none of us went into the season expecting Kaman to average 20 ppg and for him to hit 4 to 6 jump shots a game.) It’s remarkable that his overall fg% has stayed at about the same spot even though he’s playing a completely different type of game. Perhaps even more strange, though pure Kaman, is that he is still plagued on occasion by the inability to make easy shots, and this is still affecting his overall fg%.
But the other thing that I’m curious about is the discrepancy between the first half and the second. That’s where the frustration, if any of it is legitimate or meaningful, might be found. It’s a good note that he’s not going to be an especially effective 4th quarter or crunch time scorer, although he could be racking up the free throws down the stretch, and that might be the final piece that puts him over 30 at some point. The trick, then, might be to increase his 3rd quarter production. He seems to be able to put up his 12 to 15 first half points with regularity. The big night will come when he can cross 20 in the 3rd quarter and, most importantly, keep going. That’s where he hits the wall.
The 29 point game is worth remembering. I don’t remember it specifically except as part of the general heartbreak and frustration, but I recall how there was no way that Kaman wouldn’t break 30, with Milph commenting on it, and then it was part of a routinely classic Clipper meltdown.
Gordon is such an efficient scorer and the three ball makes him a threat to go for 30 at any time. The trick with Gordon is to get him up to 16 shots in a game. Gordon can play the Maggette game, scoring 20+ on something like 6 or 7 shots if he’s getting calls and going to the line. The difference from Maggs is that you want him taking 3s, and he can hit them in bunches. He can also do it at any point in the game, and you never know when he might have a 10+ point quarter. So it has been a little frustrating that he hasn’t had more explosions and break out games, but it has been a funky season (as always). We know he can do it, and we’ve seen it, and hopefully we’ll see him put up some good games down the stretch, and it will turn into a nice potsline.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
My problem with Kaman is not his scoring
but the other aspects of his game that just cause me to roll my eyes. He needs to be on a team with a leader directing him constantly.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
The Kaman Konundrum
He presents a lot of problems. One thing, which I brought up yesterday, is that it’s necessary to factor in how long it has taken for him to get to this point. I think we tend to value his scoring, for instance, and perhaps overvalue it, because our expectations were low for not just his first year or two, but well beyond that.
He’s a nice player now in many ways, and it’s also kind of nice that he’s a pure homegrown product, but a great example of a Kaman problem was his drop in rebounding before Camby left. But that’s just one thing, and there are a bunch of them.
by citizen zhiv on Mar 5, 2010 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Kaman is a 7 footer who rebounds, scores, defends and hits his free throws. In case you haven’t noticed, there aren’t a lot of those in the league. Your boy DJ does none of those things and it will be viewed as a huge success if he figures out how to do two of them well.
I don’t think people overvalue anything about Kaman. I think the way he looks make it easy for people to make the, “he’s an airhead” type comments. No center in the league possesses his all around game. If Howard had Kaman’s offensive game he would be the best player in the league.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
THIS
There are no style points for turnovers.
They HOW of the way he succeeds or fails doesn’t matter one iota. The only thing that matters is the frequency, which isn’t out of line with primary options of other teams at all.
If one is hung up on style, that’s a prejudice problem.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
If Kaman
had Howard’s intensity and focus and ability to block shots and rebound and otherwise defend, he’d be the best player in the league.
Gotta take the bad with the good, folks. Kaman has some great skills but he is not a focused player, which is why he needs to be constantly managed, particularly in crunch time. In addition, he’s historically injury prone.
You’ve got to look beyond the statistics when evaluating someone like Kaman. Otherwise you’d miss the intangibles that can significantly impact his game. If one is hung up on statistics, that’s a prejudice problem.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 5, 2010 1:37 PM PST up reply actions
Thats not right
He is not a “historically injury prone”. He was banged up a bit the past couple of years but he’s not injury prone. Everyone misses a few games here and there. He’s had one real injury plagued year (last year), the rest were ankle sprains or a sore back here and there.
He’s a decent shot blocker, a good rebounder and is solid on his defensive rotations. Does he make the occasional bonehead play? Yes. Is it really different than what a lot of bigs do when caught in positions they are uncomfortable? No. All bigs struggle with double teams, most can’t repost and most can hit cutters.
His turnover rate is about average for a guy who gets as many touches (he gets about the same than Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer, Amare etc etc). If you have a big who scores 20pts and close to 10 rebounds then they get about 3 turnovers per game. Its pretty standard.
FA in 2010.
So
You are judging him based on what he isn’t?
Everyone except Lebron isn’t something. Seems sort of a backwards way to go about life.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
You're a strange guy
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 6, 2010 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
Just to pick one nit
DeAndre Jordan is already a better per minute rebounder (career 10.6 per 36) than Chris Kaman (10.1 per 36). So in fairness, he does one of those things.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
To poach from the Memphis Grizzlies blogger
you can’t really use per 36 stats for DJ (like Thabeet) because he would rack up 5.6 fouls in those 36 minutes. If he can’t stay on the floor, is his ability to rebound really there?
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions
to poach from the obvious...
Not sure what you want to use to do an apples to apples comparison of rebounding, if not rebounds per minute. Besides, Thabeet is averaging 6.8 fouls per 36, which is a 21% bigger problem than DJ’s 5.6. I’ll accept “he’s a good rebounder who needs to figure out how to foul less”. But still not accepting “he’s not as good a rebounder as Kaman.”
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
I’m not saying Thabeet is as good as DJ. I’m just saying that his inability to stay on the floor (as opposed to Kaman) would prohibit his ability of actually grabbing that many rebounds. Anything can happen in small increments. DJ can only play 14 minutes per game because he is a fouling machine and when he does play, it comes in the second quarter against other reserves. With a more significant sample size (being able to stay on the floor longer) his numbers would likely trend downward. But if you just play a few minutes, against backups, and play with no sense of body control and grab a bunch of rebounds and then get pulled from the game, I not sure you can say his ability to rebound is on the same level as Chris Kaman.
The obvious thing you can poach from would be a per minute metric which includes fouls (and turnovers and points and rebounds.) But lucky for DJ, that’s not being used because he’d be on his way to Kazakstan too.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
And in terms of Fazekas vs DJ
John R is right on the money. This is all perception. Fazekas posted better numbers than DJ in nearly everything (and on a per minute basis!) Better TS%, better eFG%, better ORB%, better DRB%, better AST %, better steal %, and better turnover percentage.
Jordan has a better blk%, and looks a lot better. You know, the alley-oops, the way he bangs his chest after he dunks the ball.
Now you can say that Jordan is the better athlete, therefore he is more projectable, but Fazekas was a better player in 07-08 than Jordan is now.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
MMMM
Sweet tremendous upside potential.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
It's like unicorn blood
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
the metric you seek
Is essentially PER, n’est-ce pas? And no, the news is not good for DJ there, as he’s down to 11.4 this season after a rookie campaign of 14.1.
as for the challenges of extrapolating per minute averages to more minutes, wiser men than I have debated that. And I will just say that people whose work I respect have concluded that, in fact, in the vast majority of cases the numbers do translate. There’s some indication that they get better – more consistent playing time, don’t have to come into the game cold for short bursts, whatever.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
"my boy DJ"?
How did DJ come into this? Kaman does his thing, and it has its pros and cons. DJordan is a different animal.
Completely agree with your assessment and enthusiasm for Kaman, but he also makes me nuts at times and I also wanted to mention that he has taken a very long time to reach this level, and for us to see it over a significant amount of time like this.
Yes, I agree
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Mar 6, 2010 8:55 AM PST up reply actions
It's not about wanting him to shoot more...
It’s about that one (or two or three) huge night in a career of nearly 400 games. As a statistical problem, this is fascinating. Guys that score this much, this consistently, ALWAYS have an outlier or two on the high end. The dude’s career high is less than 10 points over his highest season average. There’s another money stat for you! Bet you can’t get that one! Players with a single season average high over 10, where their career high is less than the season average high plus 10. You have 2 hours.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Good point
It was mentioned by Milph at some point that Kaman planned to add the 3 pt shot to his arsenal this offseason, practicing in the Kamandome. I thought it was going to happen after he came back from Germany and played with Dirk, but it’s taking a little longer, though he has made a lot of progress on the jumper, obviously.

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