Metric-minded GMs' Top 10 Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs. I talked to three...
Metric-minded GMs' Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.
I talked to three NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
I then aggregated those lists, and here's a look at what they came up with:
Rank Player Team
1. DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky
2. Derrick Favors Georgia Tech
3. Evan Turner Ohio State
4. Greg Monroe Georgetown
5. John Wall Kentucky
6. Xavier Henry Kansas
7. Luke Babbitt Nevada
8. Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest
9. Wesley Johnson Syracuse
10. Ed Davis North Carolina
This group matches up closely with Hollinger's findings and is even more in line with the top 10 on our Big Board. Each team had an outlier the other two teams didn't rank as highly. One team had Cole Aldrich ranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in the top 10.
There are a few other things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draft right now. The same holds true for Henry, whom we currently have at No. 15. The love also keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion for Utah at No. 9.
One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old, and virtually all of the stat gurus view that as a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.