The 2010-2011 Clippers - Easy to Compare, Hard to Be Too Optimistic
by Steve Perrin on Aug 4, 2010 9:55 PM PDT
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PrintWe're still two months from the start of training camp and almost three months from opening night September 27th against the Blazers, but with 14 players under contract, there's a strong possibility that the Clippers will go into the season with these 14 players. Neither Willie Warren nor Marqus Blakely have a fully guaranteed contract, but the Clippers bothered to sign them, and one has to presume that at least their agents believe they are going to be able to stick.
The Clippers won 29 games last season with a starting lineup of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Rasual Butler, Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Now, it goes without saying that they played the final two months of the season without Camby, but it also goes without saying that the season was already lost by that time. Let's also come to grips with the fact that while injuries are a constant excuse for the Clippers, those five were not in fact particularly injury prone last season. Gordon missed 20 games, and no one else among the starters missed as many as ten. Some teams have fewer injuries than that - most teams have more.
So as we've stated, that group won 29 games. And there's a distinct possibility that the Clippers first unit will be more or less the same, with Blake Griffin replacing Marcus Camby.
The key reserves will also be very similar. If we figure that the Clippers will have a nine man rotation, Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan as the two bigs off the bench are the same as last season. Ryan Gomes and Randy Foye step into the roles previously filled by Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair and later by Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake. It's a matter of opinion as to whether Gomes and Foye is an upgrade or a downgrade over the previous pairings. But I hope we can all agree that we're likely not talking about significant positive difference makers here. There's a crazy-optimistic best-case scenario in which Gomes and Foye each come into their own and respond well in a new environment, but in all likelihood, these are placeholders - players that are capable NBA rotation guys, who can provide solid reserve minutes and the occasional start (or perhaps more than occasional in the case of Gomes), but if you're counting on them to provide significant improvement over Thornton and Telfair, you're probably going to be disappointed (and in all probabillity, they're a step down from Outlaw and Blake).
Barring a last minute surprise deal, that's your top nine for next season:
- Baron Davis, Eric Gordon and Randy Foye in the backcourt (with Rasual Butler picking up some minutes at the two)
- Rasual Butler and Ryan Gomes at small forward
- Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith in the frontcourt.
So can we expect a lot more than 29 wins based on that? Obviously, we all hope that Blake Griffin is a major upgrade over Marcus Camby, and it's not unrealistic to expect that eventually Griffin, as the former first overall pick in the draft, is indeed going to be a star in the league. But don't forget that Camby was still very productive last season in terms of rebounding and blocked shots. Griffin's offensive game (when last we saw it) was still pretty unrefined - so the one place where we might eventually expect him to surpass Camby is the one place where he still has work to do. In short, we all love Griffin, but it's hard to imagine that he's a massive upgrade over Camby in this his rookie season.
As for the rest of the top nine, we've already discussed Gomes/Foye versus Thornton/Telfair. In short, no upgrade there. The other six in the main rotation were all with the team last season. Can any of them be expected to make major improvements over last season?
Chris Kaman is coming off an All Star season, the first such selection of his seven year career. By many (though certain not all) measures, it was a career year for Kaman, so it's not realistic to expect additional productivity there. For me personally, I'd love to see different productivity - less scoring, more rebounding and blocked shots, like the original Kaman 2.0 from 07-08. Regardless, it's hard to ask for a lot more from him.
Baron Davis is coming off a reasonably productive year - certainly, last season was significantly better than his first season in LA. Was he more productive during his stay in Oakland? Absolutely, and we might hope to see a reemergence of that Boom Dizzle, but it seems unlikely to happen for the now 31 year old point guard.
Rasual Butler, also 31, is who he is. It would be great if he made a higher percentage of his three point shots this season, and specifically if he can avoid the long slumps that plagued him last year. But for the most part, his productivity in LA last season was right around the numbers for his seven year career, so we can expect more of the same in most positive scenario, with an alternative negative scenario that he starts a major decline.
Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan are going to be in rather limited reserve roles in the best case. Smith does a good job of compensating for his limitations, but that doesn't change the fact that he's limited. As for Jordan, we've been waiting for awhile for him to break out - it could happen, but it probably won't.
That leaves Eric Gordon. Griffin and Gordon, the two 21-year-olds, are the exciting nucleus for the future, and hopefully they're already good enough to be major contributors today as well. Gordon backslid in his second season as compared to his rookie year. Hopefully he can bounce back and get onto an upward trajectory. That's a subject for another post, but clearly he's a guy from whom we might expect major strides.
And of course you're all saying, what about the rookies? The Clippers had a lottery pick, they grabbed another first rounder, don't forget about those guys. Well, I watched them in Las Vegas, and it's my semi-expert opinion that the rookies are not going to help much this season. That's not to say that they're bad players or bad picks or bad people. Al-Farouq Aminu and Eric Bledsoe are 19 years old and they're simply not ready to help this season. Wille Warren was a late second round pick for a reason. I love Marqus Blakely (in fact, I actually think he's closer to contributing this season than the others), but he's an undrafted 6'5" college power forward trying to transition to the wing. Anything the Clippers get out of the rookies this year is an unexpected surprise. It would be gravy, but I'm not counting on a lot of gravy.
On the other hand, it's pretty easy to argue that the final five roster spots this season are at least more interesting than they were last season. Brian Cook notwithstanding, having four rookies who you're not really expecting much from is at least building for the future. Brian Skinner, Steve Novak, Ricky Davis, Mardy Collins and Bobby Brown - these are players that aren't a lot of help now, and won't be a lot of help in the future either (in fact, as of now it looks like they'll all be out of the league this season). So there's an upgrade in the team's future and the team's potential - but nothing much measurable for this season.
So in the end, what improvement can one expect over last season's 29 wins? It is worth pointing out that the team was 17-18 before they discovered that Griffin was lost for the season, and had a precipitous drop off when they lost hope for the season at that point. So even if Griffin is not a major productivity upgrade over Camby, it's possible that he'll represent a reason to play the entire season. So if you project that almost .500 team, with Griffin being better than Camby and Gordon having a better year than last year, I think you come to a best case scenario of a slightly better than .500 team. But even that's a stretch.
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Don't forget there is a new coach...
and I think a more motivated Baron Davis. When Baron is motivated—- he is substantially better. I would argue top 5 PGs in the NBA. We may not be in the running for a championship however, we will be running and we will be fun to watch.
+1
I agree that the coaching staff as a whole was overlooked (VDN & Iavaroni).
Also remember that while we had “hope” of BG returning last year, we hovered just below .500. With BG playing this year who clearly is an upgrade over Camby, Gordon better developed and a deeper bench I think we’ll be right around the 38-41 win marker.
I think I covered that...
the hope thing, the around .500 thing…
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Aug 4, 2010 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
you did cover the griffin injury news in your post
however i don’t think you give much importance and i think it was HUGE to how the season ended, we were sticking to .500 ball hoping that griffin would be like a trade to boost the team, and then we find he wasn´t comming, our reaction was season over, i think it affected the players even more, wasn´t then that they lost to the nets. i think that if we get griffin we made a push last season. With Griffin i believe this team can be middle 40’s maybe high 40’s and fight for a playoff place
Clearly?
Over Camby? My glasses must be fogged up. Kid Griffin has yet to play a single NBA minute.
Well he definitely won't be as much of an impact as Camby on defense
but he offers more on offense then Camby could, and even though he won’t average as many rebounds remember the team actually rebounded better after the Camby trade. I think the key with this season without Camby is how Kaman reacts, with Camby, Kaman never really had to worry about rebounding or protecting the rim because that was what Camby did. However now that Camby is gone and Griffin will take up more of the offense I would look for Kaman to become more of a rebounder and less of scorer although he will get plenty of opportunities to score due to defense paying more attention to Baron and Griffin then Kaman.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
Kaman is our all-star
you gotta think teams won’t lay off him for that reason alone.
Clearly different
Camby’s phenomenal on defense, and he gets something like 1,000 boards per game, but he’s a completely different animal than Blake Griffin is. Blake brings athleticism and speed that will be extremely tough for most other bigs to deal with, much like Amare Stoudemire, who also lacks a true back-to-the-basket game (though I think Blake is already much farther along than Amare was at this point). But much like Amare, Blake thrives best in a fast-paced system with a high IQ point guard. Camby will generally play the same no matter where he is, and he will play at his own, slower pace, as evidenced by his play on three vastly different teams in the Nuggets, Clippers, and Blazers.
So not clearly better, just clearly different.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 5, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Also BG should be better on defense then Camby in some scenarios
I remember Camby always got abused by smaller 4’s that hustled (such as Carl Landry) BG matches up much better against these players.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
I'd imagine that our record will end the season with 36 win team.
We blew about 4 for sure games during the run with Camby and if we tried in the end, we would have pulled about 3 games out of that 2 month run… 36 wins.
comparing ourselves..
so let’s put it this way…when looking at the roster..who can we pencil in as wins..and who can we DEFINATELY pencil in as losses? So I can buy tix to the HANDFUL of games that might actually be competitive for us…
Stick to the western conference and I think it looks like..
I might buy games to…
Golden State?
Utah?…without boozer!
Phoenix?…without amare.
maybe OKC….
and that’s looking like the handful of games I think we should be competitive.
I see a lot of blowouts in the west…am i missing someone?
Missing a lot
In the west alone you’re missing GS, Sac, Minny, NO, Denver?
I think around .500 is about right
I think this team will at least try the whole season which is something we couldn’t say about the last few seasons. Blake Griffin will quickly become a leader and he will be the best type of leader, the leader who leads by example and hard play. BG only plays at 110% and his team mates will have to keep up with him which will make for exciting basketball where the whole team is playing their heart out even if it leads to losses. I think this year will be a building year, probably no playoffs but there will be improvement.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
Not good enough is the problem..
Maybe its my disappoint in spending our cap space on leftovers. Maybe it’s me not believing Ryan Gomes and Randy Foye for a swap of Al Thornton and Bassy was worth it. But truth be told, it’s relativly the same team. Some argue that chemistry wasn’t there and hasn’t been there. Well, adding a new coach with limited coaching experiences doesn’t help chemistry. Sure the main core is mostly there (Gordon, Baron, Kaman), but as compared to last year (Gordon, Baron, Kaman, Camby, Thornton), seems like this current team has to develope chemistry on the court again. That will be the true ultimatum. There’s not much question Baron and Kaman’s getting it, but what about everybody else? It might take some time for it to develope between Blake and Baron (MIGHT), so I just don’t see slightly below.500 as an option.
Me too...
That’d actually make many of us happy because that means 1) we got better 2) the pesimist were wrong and 3) Our core is young and can get better! Maybe OKC better..
Last 7 years,
Baron Davis and Chris Kaman average 65 and 66 games per year, respectively.
Just sayin’…
500
Is best case scenario, I’m just looking fwd to watching Blake play and hopefully some improvement from EJ.
As Steve said, the vets are what they are and the rookies are rookies, I’d be happy with Blake and EJ playing 75-80 and close to 500.
I’m already talking myself into the hypothetical Melo scenario.
by The Blake Griffin Era on Aug 4, 2010 11:48 PM PDT reply actions
In order for the Melo scenario to become reality
we have to be a respectable team without him, I think a .500 season for the team, and ROY season by BG would definitely increase our chances at Melo.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
Melo's not coming
He’s going to NY. We can keep deluding ourselves about these top tier free agents, but as we saw this summer, that’s exactly what it is — a delusion. The truth is, we got our potential superstar with a number 1 overall pick in the draft. Either he’ll be great and we’ll be able to build around him, a la Durant in OKC, or he won’t and we’ll be screwed for another decade.
Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Everyone said the same thing about LBJ and look what
I don’t see him going to NY unless they get CP3 (which is a possibility) but without CP3 all they have is Amare and a bunch of other dudes. NY already tried to use the it’s NYC as their prime motivator for FA to sign with them and i failed miserably so who is to say they will be anymore successful this time.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
Where did Mr. Brightside go?
You hope-dasher.
I kid.
i think the biggest factor in a clipper turnaround will be how well they defend
if they can force teams to settle for a lot of long jumpers, the clips will be able to take advantage of their athleticism and score in transition.
i think baron is going to be pretty happy, because VDN likes to run a pretty conservative offense and he’s probably going to run a ton of screen-roll in the half court. and another benefit of that kind of offense is that the clippers will be able to defend in transition a bit better, since bigs will be setting screens up top and they’ll be able to get back and set up the defense a lot faster.
i think marqus blakely is going to see a surprising amount of PT this season. the clips have enough firepower; what they need from guys at the SF position is defense and hustle. what happened to tyrus thomas last year could happen to Foye and Butler. that’s one thing i like about del negro—he holds his guys accountable.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Agree for the most part
except Marques Blakely. He might actually. But his offense is so limited, its a 4 on 5 game on offense. I would think the Clippers would rather groom AFA instead of Blakey??
About mid-season last year
We were looking like a .500 team.
I have a hard time believing that a 36 year old Marcus Camby would be more productive than a 21 year old Blake Griffin, but we’ll see. Similarly, VDN will have a hard time being any worse than Dunleavy. Our depth has improved at four of the five positions IMO because I have a little more faith in the rookies improving as the year goes on, and surely no worse than Collins, Novak, Skinner, & Davis2.
Telfair flat out sucked as our main backup to BD last year. With Foye & Bledsoe as our main back up candidates, we might actually have some talent there when BD’s on the bench or injured.
Despite the similar roster look, there are plenty of reasons for improvement, with the caveat being that a lot rests on the shoulders of one Blake Griffin. Will he be up to it? If he’s healthy, you have to think he will be.
by ghost_ride on Aug 5, 2010 12:09 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Camby
was probably our best player last year up until he was traded and has aged extremely well. He was the teams best defensive player (team gave up just 101 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court, it was by far the best rating of anyone on the team) and led the team in PER (18.3). It would be very impressive if a 21 year old rookie Blake Griffin was a substantial upgrade right away.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Aug 5, 2010 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Novak > Cook
Skinner > Cook
Brown > Cook
Collins >_ (Greater than or eqaul to) Cook
Davis 2 (squggly equal line [ approximately the same value of]) Cook.
In other words, why the fuck did we sign Cook..?
Because DTS didn't like the food he was having at staples center
but called Olshey instead of the GM of the vendors at staples.
really, it was an honest mistake.
(dot. dot. dot.)
R.I.P. Lorenzen Wright November 4, 1975 - July 28, 2010
Whoa, whoa, whoa now...
We don’t even know Brian Cook yet. Why don’t we take a Magic Minute to get to know him? And Maurie Evans.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77aET5WhPjg
Furthermore, he’s clearly a more capable dunker than Steve Blake, and possibly even Candace Parker, so I think we should give him some respect for that.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 5, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Griffin will be an impact player this year
And will be a definite improvement over Camby. His presence will uplift the team, and in the preseason last year, Baron was a better player when Griffin was out there. I think he can re-energize this team and lead them to a .500 year, give or take around 5 games. If we get hot I really think this team can sneak in as an 8 seed in the Playoffs.
keeping my expectations low
just cause I am tired of underachieving. For that reason, i’m predicting 10 wins, hahaha.
but in all seriousness. Griffin brings a talent that camby never had, in just all out explosiveness that can be a game changer. I think if he’s healthy all season, it should be considered a successful season, but I still hope he’ll become that perennial all star the clippers never had.
Anyone else think Baron had a hand in helping get Dunleavy removed??
…The thought just came to me.
This article is amazingly about 98% in agreement with my feelings.
I think at best we will be at 42-40 and squeak into the 8th seed as the planets align.
Any future in luring a star free agent SF depends most on Blake as well as VDN’s success coupled with some major growth and a little bit of promise from DJ. Sprinkle that with intrigue
produced from samples of a strong future from Bledsoe.
VDN should be an upgrade over MDN in the first season, solely
based on the newness of his regime.
Gomes should start as SF with Blakely as his primary backup (his hustle and athleticism should earn him this right on a team that needs it, which those qualities are well suited for backup). Rasual should be the primary SG. And it looks like this team, with its lack of experiance is going to have to
by Takebb909 on Aug 5, 2010 2:01 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Elaborate
on why you think Baron had a hand in Dunleavy’s removal as GM. Can’t make the argument of coach because Dunleavy resigned there.
In all honesty
had Dunleavy not resigned as coach, would DTS have fired MDSR? Some of us are quick to jump on the “YES” boat, but remember this is DTS. He tried to cheat DTS out of paying MDSR by saying “I signed him as coach, not GM” etc etc.
When thinking of DTS, I kind of think DTS would still have been head coach at the end of the season…
some of my post didnt make it....
….Kaman should be focus on being a great rebounder again, like when he used to get 20 in a game, and be a shot blocker again, just letting himself be the 3rd option on offense, kind of like Rik Smits was in Indiana with Reggie Miller. Btw anyone see in base resemblances of that squad with this one.
What did our bench do last year that made them so valuable to knock this bench. Steve Blake, the player lost worth his salt, we knew from the jump, that he would not be back. The bench is a wash with potential to be better since the first bench was so lackluster.
by Takebb909 on Aug 5, 2010 12:10 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Would Blake Griffin be the combination of Dale and Antonio Davis?
EJ is our Reggie? Baron Davis is our Mark Jackson/future NBA color analyst? Can’t remember who else was on that team…Jalen Rose?
also forgot
We have 5 ROOKIES!!
Baron Davis is not going anywhere, deal with that one, his contract is big and he did good but not worthy of that contract for many teams to take on. (I think he is valuable). I would want to keep him. Just change his focus.
I rookies can contribute in small spurts but no big impacts this year.
by Takebb909 on Aug 5, 2010 12:32 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The Clippers are confusing
Yes, the team is arguably a bit stronger all around than last year but the mentality of the team was so fragile last year (and the year before). At 17-18, we were expect Blake to explode on the scene and for us to take a run at the low playoff places. The famous Memphis pipe and a surgeon check later and we are one of the worst teams in the league.
On paper, if that team were 17-18 last year, I’d like to think we could reach that again this year and try to keep it going until the end of the season. Something tells me though that something is going to happen to throw this off the rails. I really hope not but I’m expecting the worst (well, years of being a Clipper fan I suppose).
The two most interesting things to me are how Blake and Vinny settle in. Vinny seems to have some good assistant coaches and so it’ll take a bit of time to get their ideas through to the team so it could in fact be a slower start than expected.
I just can’t wait for it to start and finally see Blake in a Clippers uniform to be honest.
Bingo! Oh me oh my!
i don't actually expect the worst
but when i hear the clippers have a chance on tv i kind get scared, like if something is gonna happen and it’s not gonna be good.
Thanks Steve..
Nice to have Steve here to set up our expectations for the year. Think you nailed any questions I had going into the season.
I like that you brought up the fact that the bottom 5 of the roster will consist of 4 rookies and Brian Cook. For all the complaining going on around here about Cook, at least he’s the only one this year. Last year we had 5 Brian Cook’s. At least there’s some upside this year.
The one rookie I will be watching this year is Bledsoe. If Griffin and Gordon show they can be NBA stars and we need to add one piece to be contenders (Melo??) then IMO the Clippers will have to move Baron’s contract. Hopefully Bledsoe will show some competence to be a legit NBA point guard so Baron will become expendable. I’m hoping for a Darren Collison type year but right now that seems very unlikely. The catch is that Baron would have to play well also so some team would be willing to take his salary to add a vetern point guard presence.
This should at least be an exciting year to watch to see how the young players develop.
Yeah Bledsoe looked pretty good towards the end of SL
he has the quickness to be able to blow by other guards but he just needs to learn how to use that quickness effectively. This sounds a lot like what Mike Taylor had going for him, however I think Bledsoe has shown a more varied game then Taylor showed in his time with the clips.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
Collison's not the best comparison
Collison was drafted in roughly the same slot, but beyond that the comparisons aren’t very good. Collison came out in a year that had a bunch of PGs. But even more importantly, he played 4 years in college, with tons of experience at the position. Bledsoe had one year of college and he played out of position. He’s more like Jrue Holiday, who was a young, inexperienced, high pick. Westbrook, for instance, really benefitted from playing a second year in college, and it’s hard to say why Bledsoe didn’t stick around for another year to be the best player on the team. One could say that Bledsoe is ahead of Westbrook at this point, as he was more polished and effective as a freshman, but Westbrook is a special player.
Yes!
Jrue Holiday & Russell Westbrook.. my thoughts exactly!
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 6, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Buy a calendar...
Clips open the season OCTOBER 27, I guess training camp starts a month before.
Gomes and Foye are better than Butler and Telfair. Offensively and defensively. Although I agree that the Clips probably top out at .500. But that’s okay.
Clearly you’ve been on vacation too long.
Overall all the Gomes/Foye additions are not upgrades, but they are better fits
Comparing to Thornton/Telfair – same players, better fit
Gomes may not be as athletic as Thornton, but did Thornton really use it? at least not to his advantage all the time because he took more jumpshots than driving to the basket. He did show it being an offensive rebounder before he got traded though.
With that said, Gomes has a better/smarter mid-range game than Thornton and a better shooter from behind the arc.
-Gomes ~ Thornton….but the floor spreader in Gomes helps the Clippers current roster
Foye is a better scorer/shooter than Telfair and can play the SG.
Telfair is the better playmaker
-Foye ~ Telfair….scoring off the bench was a big need for the Clippers last year, this area is an improvement. let’s just hope Baron’s playmaking is very good this year
Comparing to Outlaw/Blake – downgrades, but
Outlaw is definitely the better player between he and Gomes. but Outlaw was coming off an injury and never played well for us consistently.
-So since we only experienced a downgraded Outlaw, Gomes is either a slight improvement or at worst equal.
Foye vs. Blake major downgrade…
Blake is a WAY better playmaker, not much of a scorer as Foye, but still a very good shooter from 3
….its tough to say he would have stayed either way, so technically Foye wins by default
R.I.P. Lorenzen Wright November 4, 1975 - July 28, 2010
Psyche
I certainly agree that from a player point of view, the team is very similar in talent level from last year. However, I always felt we had enough talent to be a near .500 team last year with room to grow, and that the biggest weakness was the fragile mental state of the team. I think this translates most directly into defensive effort, and this showed during the latter part of last season. Given that, I believe the new coaching staff is the greatest potential reason for optimism for the current season. We have a shot this season to get a positive mentality into the team. This is essential if we’re going to build for the future.
I agree about the coaching staff
Last year’s team was still playing under the Dunleavy system that they had given up on the previous year. Baron never bought into Dunleavy’s system so I’m hoping for him to have his best year as a Clipper and the main reason is that Del Negro is the best upgrade versus last years team. He’ll let the team play and he can motivate them. Plus as much as people knock his lack of NBA coaching experience, he does have experience in helping rookies improve and reach star potential (Rose & Noah) so I do hope/expect our rookies to contribute in some way. Great post Steve, but I think you missed the most important difference in comparing last year’s team. Plus his assistant coaching staff is a major improvement as well, which is important too.
A .500 record would be awesome. We aren’t going to win any championships this year, and maybe we won’t make the playoffs but as long as our record improves and we stay competitive in games throughout the season, that has to be something to feel proud about.
So many things wrong with this post (and general downcast atmosphere here).
Steve, you go out of your way to mention that it’s hard to tell if Gomes and Foye are upgrades over Outlaw/Blake and Thornton/Telfair and later, “we’ve already discussed Gomes/Foye versus Thornton/Telfair. In short, no upgrade there.”
Gomes and Foye are not stars, but aside from Steve Blake, they are the best of the bunch in this small sample. Unlike Thornton and Outlaw, Gomes rebounds (and acutally hits some outside shots). Bassy was a pass first, miss second point guard. At least Foye can shoot and score.
My biggest concern with this blog now is that everyone is being so pessimistic. I;m not calling for eternal Clipper optimism just yet, at best people should be lukewarm, not down beat. It boggles the mind when everyone looked at this core last year and projected playoffs. Blake Griffin’s impact is being sorely underestimated. Granted, as Clippers its best not to get our hopes up, but this is the same guy that averaged 16.5 (SIXTEEN.FIVE) RPG in NCAA tournament play.
I expect at least .500 ball, perhaps more. Steve, you also fail to mention Del Negro. Initially, I would’ve preferred Casey and hate that we again went cheap. However, Del Negro is a coach who will let Baron do his thing. BD has shown flashes, he’s not as washed up as people believe. With a new system, and Blake Griffin, the team may actually make noise this year.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 10:22 AM PDT reply actions
Forgot to mention your take on Eric Gordon.
Not saying you’re the only one, but using the term “backslid” is simply inaccurate. A lack of improvement does not equate to a regression. Can’t say that enough, especially considering as a rookie EJ was pretty damn good.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Last year's team wasn't a playoff team or even a .500 team
You can disagree with Steve’s post and the general pessimism around here (which admittedly is extreme at times), but it’s hard to find actual statistical support for your position. You can say you think Gomes and Foye are better…but are they really or do you just want to believe that? I don’t know the answer for sure myself. But the evidence certainly doesn’t make it clear that what Steve said is wrong.
And who cares what optimistic fans projected last year? They (we) were all proven unequivocally wrong. People want to talk about the almost .500 record and the Memphis game. But that record was an illusion. The team had a fairly easy schedule in November/December and lost to almost every good team they played (remember the Christmas Day embarrassment?). Then they had like two good weeks, everyone got excited, the pipes broke in Memphis and the season was over.
But the reality is that last year’s team wasn’t a true .500 team regardless. Go look at strength of schedule. And really, that’s reflected in the fact that everyone wants to revisit that Memphis game. The Clips had no excuse for losing that game and it just showed how weak the squad was. Two good weeks…that’s all they really had last year even before the Camby trade.
I’m not at all convinced that had they not traded Camby, their record would have been much better.
The team was playing for something before Blake was unequivocally ruled out to return.
As I said, Gomes and Foye ARE the best of the bunch statistically speaking. Out of those six players, Steve Blake is the best at what he does and the role he fills. I’m not saying Foye is better, but when paired together Foye and Gomes bring way more to the table.
Thornton didn’t rebound and was a poor outside shooter.
Bassy was a one dimensional shooter.
Outlaw brought NOTHING to the table. He’s a scorer and he couldn’t even do that while playing for a contract.
Gomes rebounds. 5-6 from your starting SF beaths the less than 2 Rasual and Al grabbed during games.
I am not saying we’re a playoff team. But the utter reversal from optimism to pessimism regarding what is essentially the same squad is weird to me. Even weirder when considering Blake Griffin will (hopefully) play and that we’ve improved (moderately, but still) with out bench.
And also, new coach who has an equally large (or larger) chip on his shoulder to prove he isn’t a loser.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Bassy-----passer*
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you Gordon for President
I honestly think gordon didn’t have a bad year i honestly think he was not right from his
injury when he came back. When i watch the games before he got hurt he was playing
extremely well and it seems that after his injury if you look at how he was shooting the
ball he had no lift. So i think Gordon comes back better than his first year. Blake is a
rock and eventually become the leader of this team because he will refuse to fail and
this my friends will eventually rub off on the rest of the team. Specially on gordon and
Baron will be boom dizzle again and we will be all saying who these guys. This is just
like that Butch cassidy and Sundance kid movie. So the surprise team of the west is
your Los Angeles Clippers.
There were a few games
That EJ shouldn’t have even been on the court, one was the “homecoming” to Indiana game. Hopefully the pesky injuries from last season don’t become a theme.
That's a fair counter
Just tend to think a healthy EJ and Griffin make a world of difference for our offense, and that Griffin will manage to win about as many possessions as Camby was able to. I’m also a bit more bullish on our back up PG situation than a year ago, our 3 pt. shooting, etc.
Also regarding last years team, I really think that tough loss to Phoenix in the 2nd game of the year was a huge game. Win that one, and their confidence and mind set is totally different. They appeared to be the better team, but didn’t have the confidence and ability to close out games. I have a feeling a healthy BG will do wonders in reversing that trend.
With or without Griffin injury
mg: are you saying they weren’t a 500 or playoff team before or after Griffin missed the season. it would have been a different story with a healthy Griffin, and Gordon’s early injury was a factor and a difficult blow in that early season schedule that you talk about.
Optimistic fans last year expected a Kaman-Griffin-Camby rotation, for starters.
But it doesn’t matter. It’s just a question for the comparison, and the search for optimism this year.
After Griffin
I think it’s impossible to say what kind of team they would have been had Griffin stayed healthy. But man that would have been nice to see. I was super high on them last off-season because of Griffin (despite their indefensible decision to keep Dunleavy).
It's important
This is where the comparison needs to start. The Clippers were built to be competitive last year, and then it all went into the hasher when Griffin went down. And, as I’ve mentioned, Gordon’s injury didn’t help as they moved towards that 17-18 record heading to Funkytown.
On last year’s team Griffin didn’t need to be the opening day starter because of Camby-Kaman. But he would have been starting soon enough. For comparison sake, we didn’t know that All Star Kaman (3.0? 2.8? 3.3? we never settled that) was going to show up. I can’t say I’m excited about Kaman’s hefty seasons in injury-plagued year. The 2.0 season was in pursuit of a lost cause. So it’s important to note in the comparison that Kaman exceeded expectations. And one of his drawbacks was that he turned into a shooter and scorer and wasn’t as effective on the boards or blocking shots, but part of that was because Camby was such an aggressive rebounder, and such a relatively poor shooter and scorer.
So, just to look at the bigs rotation, what we’re really comparing is Kaman-Camby-Griffin, plus a major injury, against Kaman-Griffin-DJordan. That’s a big downgrade, until you factor in the injury.
For arguments sake
I’m going to say the comparison is more like Kaman-Griffin-Rhino this year because Jordan isn’t even our next big thing. Yes, he’s the back-up center but that really scares me a lot because I don’t think he’s even good enough to do that right now.
Oddly enough, Kaman is the most important player on our team this year, if he goes down there goes any chance at winning games while he’s down. Yeah we can play small ball, but Jordan is a weak back-up C in my opinion. It’s all a downgrade from the trio we hoped to see last year that we never saw, but oh well, that was then this is now. Id’ say we have decent back-ups at every spot except the C position, which is why the Brian Cook signing is odd, because sadly I see him getting some PT next year which is not a good thing.
Great Work by SP
Lots of great material, should be a sophisticated conversation starter. Before I read the thread I’ll make some points. The one thing I noticed above scrolling down was the “I agree with 98% of what SP says.” One Clipper Mind, that’s what we’re after, and SP gets us very close here.
Some quick notes. He skipped VDN, perhaps intentionally. Maybe coaches don’t matter. He also framed the discussion in such a way, in mentioning the injury excuse, that it seems like the Clippers didn’t expect Griffin to play and be a huge difference maker last season. Taking BG out of the equation and comparing him to Camby makes it seem like apples-to-apples, but that isn’t quite right. More on that later: moving on. Next item, after watching summer league, is that I believe he is severely underestimating Eric Bledsoe and the contributions he will make this season. He was the second best PG in the draft, and he looked like a lottery pick to me, in something like the same way that DJordan might be construed as a lottery-quality player at some point, though he’s not there yet. He turned the ball over and wasn’t ready to run the team, but he is an athlete with a mature body and strength who is a really good basketball player. One of the few things we know about VDN is that he plans to play his young guys, and I think Bledsoe is going to get a lot of opportunities.
Maybe more later. Maybe I’m wrong. But go ahead and call me an optimist.
"One Clipper Mind"?
Why is that what we’re after? I don’t agree with that at all. And if anything, I think the last few days on this blog has left little doubt that in fact we’re not of one mind (which again…is totally fine).
I do agree with you that not mentioning VDN at all is a considerable oversight. The problem going into last year (before the injuries) was that we had a lame duck coach who had lost his players the year before. The players simply weren’t responding to Dunleavy and most people, Steve included, recognized that we needed change. Ownership failed to make that change and this team was sunk before it started.
VDN may not be a top flight coach, but just having a new system with a new guy on the sidelines will energize the players. It’s a factor that can’t be ignored.
+1
No one likes a totalitarian regime. Well, no one SHOULD.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
It's just a zhiv
Making one of my jokes. Obviously we’re never going to be in complete agreement around here, nor should we be. But I always am in substantial agreement with SP, it seems.
Funny. We never see you two in the same place at the same time.
Jussssssssst sayin’…….
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Madglove is the Clips nation Police.
So any disagreements toward Steve Perrin you will be reprimanded. So just be careful
and thank god that we don’t agree on everything around here if not how boring would this blog would be. I probably will get reprimanded for this comment too.
Oh come on
First of all, zhiv didn’t even disagree with Steve. He AGREED. How does what you’re saying have anything to do with that?
Second, I disagree with Steve all the time. Steve doesn’t care and neither does anyone else. What I can’t stand are people who act like asses towards him. We all frequent his blog all the freaking time. He put in tons of time and effort to create it. It just annoys me when people don’t respect that and try to make demands about what they’re “entitled to” and accuse him of stuff that isn’t even true.
Disagree with me, Steve and anyone else all you want. When have I ever said that’s a bad thing?
But what about Bledsoe?
Not to get sidetracked.
My initial points:
1. No discussion of VDN.
2. Injury to Griffin a major cause of only 29 wins. SP elides this point.
3. Bledsoe will be a rotation player who will be challenging Foye for minutes.
3a. If it was MDSr. SP’s analysis of Foye would be true, and Bledsoe would play sparingly. But VDN is going to give Bledsoe a chance to be an impact player.
I have notes on all of these, and some additional points as well. Here’s one:
I was struck, reading this, for the first time that Rasual Butler is the probable starter. Some one is going to have to beat him out. But he wasn’t so bad, and last year at this time we were intrigued by getting him, and bringing Thornton off the bench. The full team of Camby-Kaman-Butler-Gordon-Davis did well as a starting lineup, even when the Clips were crushed by Griffin being out and early missed games by Gordon and had to battle back. I hadn’t really thought about the value of bringing Butler back before this. I was expecting somebody better in the starting lineup this season. A healthy Griffin and Gordon will go a long way, and Butler is competent. If Gomes is better, and he’s a good fit with the 4 main guys, that would be great.
And I should say something about AFA. He was disappointing in summer league, but what SP says about the two 1st rounders as 19 year olds very much applies to Aminu. But again, I go back to VDN’s vow to play young guys. I expect AFA to have a steep learning curve and see limited action, but he’s going to get some minutes and opportunities, a lot more under VDN than he would under MDSr. And that should be interesting.
Agreed
Especially about Bledsoe. I was high on him well before we drafted him and I think he’s going to be a player.
I agree that everyone is panicking because the “two 19 year olds” struggling in summer league. It’s silly. It’s been proven time and again that summer league is absolutely no indicator of performance in the NBA. None.
And the fact that they’re 19…so? So are countless other lottery picks every single year. It’s not like we picked the only two 19 yr. olds. in the draft or something.
Is there a smaller backcourt in the league than Bledsoe and Gordon?
That doesn’t bother anyone? They’re smurfs.
Uh Bled's height is fairly standard
Bled isn’t particularly short for a PG at all. He’s 6’1.5". Jameer Nelson is 6’, Aaron Brooks is 6’, CP3 is 6’, Rondo is 6’1", Brandon Jennings is 6’1", and Tony Parker is 6’2". So…the answer is no he’s not a “smurf.”
EJ is short for his position but the team has to either live with that or trade him. If his height is a liability at the 2 then they need to deal with that. Are you saying EJ is too short to guard SGs? If that’s the problem then it’s irrelevant how tall Bledsoe is.
Now if Bledsoe was ALSO too short to guard opposing PGs, then yes you’d have a problem. But clearly he’s not.
So what you’re saying really just boils down to whether or not it bothers you that EJ is too short. If he’s so short he can only guard PGs, then he’s a liability at the 2 spot and they need to upgrade.
You're probably right...
I think we’ve seen Gordon cover pretty much everyone at either backcourt position with excellent results… he has long arms and he’s quick and strong at at 220 pounds. Next to Baron Davis, who’s more or less the same size (6’3" 210), they seemed capable of covering just about anyone.
But Bledsoe seems smaller doesn’t he?
Just to completely throw my argument in the woodchipper, I wonder if my real problem is that I suspect Bledsoe is actually a two guard.
About defense
Bledsoe’s defense is another important question. It should be interesting to see what kind of defender he is. There are a lot of fast, quick, athletic point guards. I was very impressed by Bledsoe’s athleticism, mature body, and his strength and quickness. His debut was against John Wall, who he knows well, and John Wall is an extraordinary player.
I don’t know Foye’s defensive abilities either. Telfair was a great distributor and good at running an offense, and he had good experience, but he was a defensive liability. Steve Blake was solid on both ends, an excellent backup, and you could see the difference. If Bledsoe starts by playing defense and builds from there, he should be okay. It will be different for him playing with the real guys, solid NBA rotation players. I’m not saying that he’s not going to have some extremely rough edges, and Foye will have a big edge in experience, but Bledsoe could make a big impact.
I’m not so worried about Bledsoe being the PG of the future, btw. If he can be a really good, athletic guard in the NBA (and play defense), he’ll be an asset. I’m kind of fascinated by Foye and Bledsoe and how that will work out. Foye might be waiting for the right situation to be a little better than the league has seen thus far, while Bledsoe is a young raw talent who is pressuring for some of the same minutes. Should be interesting.
Bledsoe....
If he’s NOT pg of the future why did the FO give up what looks like an unprotected pick for him?
OKC is betting the Clippers will be bad in 2012. Neil Olshey is betting he needed a point guard sooner rather than later. Baron’s an expiring contract in 2012. I think he’s thinking ahead, which is exactly what he should be doing.
The Clips NEED Bledsoe to develop into a starter, not a bench player.
Saw this on another board. The protection is pretty good.
The pick we traded is Top 10 protected from 2012-2017. If the Thunder don’t redeem the pick during those 5 years, then the pick is ours and is no longer owed.
We keep our pick next year regardless of what our pick is. In 2012, we should see some improvement. If we give up the pick that year, we’ll still have Minnesota’s pick to work with.
Wow...
Good spot L4e. Not sure I get it (top ten protected for 5 years?) but much better than I feared.
Still wonder about Bledsoe’s value though. I guess OKC didn’t see anything it wanted/needed that late in the draft. Not carrying a guaranteed contract anyway.
Nice!
Thanks for that update.
So now all the people who were so adamant that we potentially gave up a top 10 pick (and one guy even lamented that we potentially traded the #1 overall pick) can relax.
It was stupid to even think that might be the case.
+1
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 9, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I, for one, was worried, for good reason...
I’m on the fence about the trade itself, but when the Clips didn’t come forward with the deal points… what’s up with that? What don’t you want people to know? Was the deal THAT crappy?
It still sounds like a super-strange deal though. Top ten protected for five years… and then it goes away?
That's what I thought...
Well..atleast I hope your being sarcastic…
I have yet to warm up to Bledsoe. I saw his first summer game, and it was somewhat likeable. He was very aggressive, but it made me miss Mike Taylor even more. Bledsoe reminded me exactly of Mike Taylor during that first game, super fast, can easily get to the basket; however out of control.
From summer league superstar to NBA mediocrity
→ Jerryd Bayless <-
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 6, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Er...
That was supposed to be two arrows pointing at his name. Fail.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 6, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Bledsoe
If Bledsoe ends up being a big contributor then that means Baron had a disappointing season, seems like a zero sum gain to me.
by The Blake Griffin Era on Aug 5, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
The whole will have to surpass the sum of its parts
And I think it will.
Yes the parts are drastically different, but I do think the team as a whole will be better. As I already mentioned above, the coaching change will have a significant impact.
I also think the chemistry will be better with more youth and energy from the two lottery picks to add to Griffin and DJ’s energy. That’s what carries OKC so far (along with KD’s uber-talent of course).
I’m also in the corner that believes that the two rooks will contribute more than people think. In their disappointment over the summer moves, everyone wants to poo poo on the rookies, but I think they’ll be pretty decent. And c’mon Steve…judgments based on summer league play? Worthless. Completely worthless.
In the end I think we have about a .500 team…give or take 2-3 wins. But I’m always semi-optimistic before the season starts and we get blown out in the opener.
As I already mentioned above, the coaching change will have a significant impact.
Feel free to quantify this.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
However you find it to be significant and what that impact will be.
Coaches don't matter. - Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball
Your signature and previous post confuse me.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 6, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
This is a road probably not worth going down
The impact of coaching is not easily going to show up in stats (with the possible exception of last year’s team considering how lots of us believe the roster is about the same). For instance, I believe the team will be better defensively…if this happens, some of that success should be credited to the coaching staff.
Anyways, just because it’s not easily measurable, doesn’t mean it’s insignificant. <— lots of negatives!
The rooks will contribute
Why even talk about their summer league? Last year people expected a lot out of Deandre because he was like a summer league all-star. Then the season starts and he reverts to his old ways of being the furthest thing from an all-star. Is Evan Turner expected to do nothing because he had a bad summer league? Why expect our rookies to do nothing when we have a coach who has a proven record of bringing out the best in his rookies (Rose, Noah, Gibson). As much as people want to knock Del Negro’s experience, I don’t think you can knock his ability to play rookie and let them grow and realize their real potential. Are we trying to win a championship this year or build for the future here?
The coaching change alone
I believe that the difference from having a coach that already lost the team, to a new coach will be worth 5 wins all by itself.
It has less to do with Dunleavy’s coaching and more to do with the message keeping him around after an embarrassing 19 win season sent to the team. People like to talk about how trading Camby told the players that the management had given up. The truth is, keeping Dun told the players that management didn’t care anyway.
VDN will have the players’ attention because he’s the new sheriff in town. It’ll be up to him to keep their attention and respect. Dun lost it.
"Yes the parts are drastically different"
Should read “parts AREN’T…”
Btw, I also think we’ll see a nice jump from EJ this year. If not…we should be worried.
I agree on EJ
I think last year was kind of a lost year for injury due to nagging injuries that kept him from ever really getting back to top shape. I also wonder if the new coach will have an impact on EJ, maybe Vinny can find a way to get EJ more involved when the ball isn’t in his hands and maybe Vinny will make sure that we don’t forget about EJ towards the end of games.
"baron doesn’t need electricity, he generates power from the BEARD"
Worlock
I agree with your assortment of points
I think our young team will take its lumps at first, but VDN will be on their case and the team will largely pay attention (which is more than MDSr could say). Give the rookies a chance to contribute among the rotational players, and their talents will soon outshine their anxieties. Give EJ and Griffin some time to meld their games, and soon they’ll be rising up in tandem. The only player I’m feeling pessimistic about is DJ, but that’s just a vague SL impression.
I see us winning 38-42 games (mildly optimistic, but whatever). The difference between this year’s team and last will be the positive synergy it develops in the first two or three months. Gomes and Foye will contribute there, which is a whole lot more than I can say for Outlaw. I simply won’t miss that guy. Blake wasn’t anything special, either.
DTS is a douche, but at least we don’t have to look at him too often.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
DJ had an awesome summer league last year
and a comparably disappointing season. Let’s hope it’s the opposite this year. So far it looks like he should get plenty of burn, although I think they’re supposed to still be looking at another bigman.
All about Griffin
DJ’s excellent summer league last year, and his comparatively quiet and slow starting summer league this year, not to mention his struggles last season, were all about Blake Griffin. Last year’s summer league was an opportunity to show how Griffin and his skill and style of play can make other players better, and DJordan was 4 or 5 times better than we’ve ever seen him, outside of the first half of the Memphis game after Kaman was hurt.
If Griffin can be such a difference maker with DJordan, what will it be like for him to play with Kaman and Baron Davis? Will Griffin-DJordan-BDavis be potent as well? Why not?
In himself, Blake Griffin is enough to throw the doors of Club Optimism open, and there should be all sorts of other reasons as well. But let’s take our time and get to November.
With the roster set, we’re into a traditionally dangerous time for the Clippers in August, September, and October. This is when things can go wrong. Not time to get too excited, instead it’s time for guys like BDavis and Kaman to get that summer work ethic going and get in great shape, as we’ve seen before, and stay healthy.
Heres a question for everyone
Who should this team make as there number 1 scoring option to build around this coming season.
by Takebb909 on Aug 5, 2010 12:35 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Eric Gordon.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 5, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Eric?
BD has consitiently ignored Eric in the offense. Hopefully, VDN will help BD see EJ in the offensive scheme.
Yes, it's become clear that BD doesn't trust EJ.
He only seems to trust Kaman.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 6, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
That's been a point of heavy disagreement...
Gordon has to take some of the blame, the coaches have to take some of the rest. I’m not sure how much is Baron’s fault.
The Clips have wanted Gordon to develop some playmaking ability, so often Davis just hands the ball off to Gordon and lets him go.
Doesn’t seem to work much.
When I watch Ray Allen I see a guy who moves without the ball, racing through the offense, trying to scrape off a defender, and get open. When the ball comes to him he makes a quick choice: shoot, get to the rim, or give the ball to an open teammate. Gordon doesn’t really do that, he tends to hang around the three point line and wait for the ball to come out.
Is that the style of offense or a personal choice?
But now I ask myself, if Ray Allen came to the Clips, how would he play? I’m sure he’d be diving through the offense, trying to scrape off a defender, get open, call for the ball… it’d be the same as everywhere he’s ever played. That’s his game.
Will the new coaching staff work on this stuff? SHOULDN’T they?
EJ is not Ray Allen
EJ was ignored plenty of times last season by Baron. There were numerous times when EJ had the hot hand & open, but Baron went to Kaman or himself. That is what the other teams saw & defended. Eric is not the Ray Allen/ Reggie Miller style player. He has the ability to drive to the basket instead of a pure catch & shoot player. Hopefuly, VDN will utilize EJ in a better way than last year. And hopefuly, EJ has a better season.
Hmmm
I don’t agree that Ray Allen is a “pure catch and shoot player”. He plays well off the ball and has a quick step. He’s a better ballhandler than Gordon, a better passer, and moves really well without the ball. When he goes to the basket, he picks his spots, and unlike Gordon, doesn’t drive into the trees.
IMHO he is what Eric Gordon should strive to be.
It’s probably irrelevant but is interesting that Mike Dunleavy, as Milwaukee GM (and coach for just one year, I believe) traded rookie Stephon Marbury for rookie Ray Allen. Of course Allen blossomed in his second year, was oft-injured in his third, and started to regularly average 20 points in his fourth year (at the age of 25).
Agree with swamigusto
Ray Allen is more than just a pure catch and shoot player. He only has that reputation because of he’s such a great shooter. But he’s a WAY better version of RIP. He can fight through screens, run around the court for open looks, and drive wayy better than Gordon. The only difference is one drives into traffic and uses his strong body and the other drives around it and scores easily.
"Playing well off the ball"
Isn’t that exactly what a “catch and shoot” player is supposed to specialize in? He definitely did used to drive a lot more than he does now, so I see your point. Ray wasn’t particularly effective when using his driving game, though, but his deadly shot allowed him to create driving lanes that made life a lot easier for him. Gordon doesn’t create these lanes (yet).
I would LOVE if Gordon embraced the Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton, Reggie Miller style of play that involves running 75+ feet through 5+ screens per half-court possession. That requires ridiculous stamina and speed, and EJ certainly has it.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 7, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
No so true about Gordon
I don’t know that Gordon doesn’t move without the ball, that he just hangs out around the perimeter. BD getting the ball to Kaman is an obvious option, and certain movement follows from that. Obviously, when the season was over after the all-star break and during the Kim Hughes era things weren’t going very well.
I’d be curious to see how KA would break down Gordon’s effort and issues, since he studies offenses so carefully and he seems to see a lot of stuff that most of us don’t.
The big issue for Gordon has been his lack of rebounding, not problems with his off the ball movement. He can shoot and he’s a good player who had a difficult and disappointing sophomore season. Playing on a healthy team (that it, with Griffin, Kaman, and BD) and staying healthy himself should make a significant difference.
I don't entirely agree Zhiv...
It seemed as though when instructed to give Gordon the ball more, Baron did exactly that, but he didn’t find him good spots or wait for him to come free off a screen, he simply handed him the ball and let him choose whether to drive to the basket or shoot. Gordon usually took a while to make a decision and then either drive into heavy traffic or force a shot.
I don’t really think this was Baron or Gordon’s fault, but the fault of an unimaginative offensive scheme. And, was there ever a scheme where Gordon developed a two-man game with a big? Camby was not an inside threat and Kaman, while capable, never really played any sort of back-and-forth with Gordon.
But there’s another important reality: While Eric Gordon had some rough and disappointing moments offensively last year, he really didn’t fall off much statistically. He continued to be a very efficient scorer who shot too little… as John R’s analysis has shown.
But there was no falling off on the defensive end. Gordon led the Clippers wing defenders with his strength and energy. The lack of rebounding is odd and I have no explanation… but isn’t it just a statistical anomaly? When you watch the Clippers did you say, “I see the problem, Gordon doesn’t pull in enough rebounds.” Is it a relevant stat at all for a two-guard? If he pulled in one more rebound per game he’d be normal… if he pulled in two, he’d be superior. I don’t get the argument.
agree
It was probably something to do with the offense. BDavis can obviously get guys the ball in the right position when that’s the plan, and Gordon worked hard off the ball and came off screens in his rookie year. It’s probably about having some sort of basic offensive flow and sets, and that’s why I would defer to KA, who is deep inside these things. But I don’t think that Gordon’s problem is that he was lazy off the ball and didn’t keep moving. I don’t know that VDN is going to have a more sophisticated offense, but BD should be able to flourish in whatever kind of system suited DRose.
I don’t think we disagree about Gordon. He’s an active defender, very solid. In the right offense, with the right guys on the floor, he should be able to shoot effectively and get shots. More shots for Gordon, less for BDavis. Perhaps Griffin will find Gordon more shots.
I do have to say that after being alerted to the discrepancy, I keep an eye open on the rebounding of guards. Westbrook and Rondo are awesome rebounders and they really go to the boards, and it makes a huge difference. Part of the problem was that Thornton wasn’t a rebounder, and neither is CSmith. VDN’s all-purpose, generic philosophy is “play the right way,” or “play hard,” or whatever it is, but if the Clips can be focused on being an outstanding rebounding team, with everybody hustling, it will make them much better. Let him pull in two and be superior. And if Gomes and AFA can pick up some SF rebounding slack (not going to get much help from Butler or CSmith), and Griffin does what we expect, then the Clips will be pretty good.
A sea of shadows...
I certainly never meant that Gordon was “lazy” off the ball. Just under-instructed? Perhaps.
Ah. I’m unhappy with Clipper progress in this offseason. I’m unhappy with the draft. The strange leadership. I think Gordon could be a GIANT player if nudged in the right direction.
We ply dark waters, Zhiv. We are alone and separate, but together, disgruntled ruins. You maintain the optimism of the tiny crow’s nest, ever on the lookout for bright horizon. I am down in the lightless hold, poking through a ruined barrel of lemons, hoping. Only hoping. Ever hoping.
Poetic...
Let’s hope Gordon makes Team USA and he gets that nudge in the right direction from Coach K.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 8, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Did anyone point out Ray Allen has been in the league more than 5 times as long as EJ?
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Aug 9, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
EJ on a screen playing using Blake or Kaman should be spammed pretty frequently throughout a game
…as long as EJ can make the right play (pass/shoot) of course.
I LOVE HOW PEOPLE WERE SAYING WE WOULD HAVE THE BEST STARTING 4 IN THE LEAGUE....
When we were talking about LeBron coming to the Clippers’. Now people are talking like we are a shitty WNBA team. I still think we have an UNKNOWN and not a void at the 3 spot but, we still have really good players in the rest of out starting line up. I just think our talent is lacking in the MENTAL aspect of the game. By this I mean, when your # 1 pick goes down, along with a solid back up in Rush, and a coach that many are tuning out—- the team starts to lose motivation. I know that they get paid to play ball—- but motivation and lack of it is a huge factor in professional sports. This is the only time you will see me give KObe any love but, he does have great motivation and drive. With that being said, I think that Blake Griffin has that same drive and he is showing earlier in his career. It took Kobe a few years.
As for Camby, he is a great rebounder and shot blocker but, he is an offensive liability and his 1 on 1 defense and quickness cannot compare to Blake’s.
I just think our talent is lacking in the MENTAL aspect of the game
Can use spell K-A-M-A-N or is it D-A-V-I-S or maybe it just begins and ends with S-T-E-R-L-I-N-G.
Here is the scenario, we get off to a nice start. begin to plateau, Baron gets injured, we bring in AI and end up in the playoffs; otherwise its the 4th pick in the lottery.
With all the negativity this year, the Clippers will surprise with 45+ wins.
Just like in the stock market, everyone jumps out of stocks right when they are hitting bottom after experiencing one too many losses and setbacks. The same thing is going on here on this blog.
The truth is, this team is better than last year’s and has more hungry and fewer washed up players ready to contribute. Yet everyone is pessimistic. Let’s just compare the Clips to last year’s best team, the Lakers , based on talent rather than position.
Coming into last year’s draft, Griffin was the best number one pick since 2003. The kid had similar numbers to T Duncan in college, spent two years in NCAA ball learning the game unlike most top picks who come out after one year, and now has spent a year audting the NBA from the sidelines. His college credentials, raw talent, and exposure to the NBA should prepare him for a very good year. Impact wise, he could have the same impact on the Clippers as Kobe with the Lakers. Sure, Kobe puts up some major points, but he takes A LOT of shots to get those. Griffin will score a lot of points in a more efficient manner, rebound a ton, and will make assists or opportunities for other players. Kobe’s energy and attitude can negatively affect his team, where Griffin is a hugely positive player.
Gasol is a great player, but his scoring, rebounding and defense are only marginally better than Kaman’s. He’s not any more physical than Kaman, although I would give him a clear edge over Kaman in the passing department.
Bynum is better than DJ with his low post moves but otherwise doesn’t put up consistent scoring. DJ’s rebounding and defense are roughly comparable to Bynum and DJ has shown that he can get up and down the court faster should the Clippers run more this season. Both are fairly low IQ players and Bynum gets hurt a lot.
Artest versus Gordon. Gordon plays comparable defense and scores the ball much better. Passing skills are similar although rebounding edge would go to Artest.
BD vs Fisher. Fisher is clutch, smart, and can drain the 3. Otherwise, the edge goes all around to BD.
Odom vs Rhino. Rhino doesn’t pass nearly as well as Odom, but rebounds the ball comparablly well and is a much better scorer. Both are unremarkable on defense.
The remaining players (Gomes, Butler, Foye, etc) are comparable to the Lakers. As for the Lakers, Walton, Blake, Barnes, Menga, etc, they aren’t exactly hall of famers.
Are the Lakers really that much better than the Clippers where the Lakers can win a title and the Clippers can’t even get to the playoffs or even to 500. This is more a matter of attitude and belief systems rather than talent. The talent is there.
We’ll see……
33 wins
I can see the team winning as many as 40 games if everything falls right and win as few as 28 if things fall apart. In order to hang around .500 these things need to happen.
Baron and Kaman have to play 75 games apiece again.
Blake Griffin not only needs to stay healthy, he needs to be a double double machine right out of the gate (16-10) and win ROY.
EJ needs to improve to a 18-3.5-3.5 player
The bench needs to gel, kind of like how the Suns bench. The only guy close to being a playmaker off the bench if Randy Foye. They will need to play their butts off to be effective.
DJ needs to play hard anytime he’s in the game. He’ll play more minutes and is the obvious backup C now so his minutes will actually matter.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Aug 6, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
He's more of a garbage man type player
you can’t really dump the ball down to him and expect him to make a play for others.
FA in 2010.
He doesn't have any post moves
most of his buckets are off put backs or inside passes from other players. He doesn’t have a very refined post game, just put his head down and charge towards the basket (hence why he has so many offensive fouls). I like Rhino, he was my favorite Clipper last year but he doesn’t create plays for others.
FA in 2010.
Good list. I would add something about the Gomes-Sool-Aminu combo.
Those guys will have to cover the wing adequately. If Rasual can shoot with more touch this year and fill in as starter, I suspect Gomes will do well off the bench. I can see them more or less splitting the time, with growing pockets for the Chief.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
If the beast stays healthy.(He will refuse failure)
45 wins period!
YES! Club O! He needs to be our leader asap
Boom Dizzle was always one of my favorite players because he brings his emotion to the game. The problem so far has been is that he’s lead the team to great places (ie. the win over the celtics) and to very bad places.
I think Baron can still bring veteran leadership and a voice to listen to on occasion, but BG can lead by example with a consistent winning attitude the club hasn’t had since Sammie left. He can also jolt this franchise with energy with monstrous athleticism the crowd can get behind. No offense to any STHs but the crowd has just looked dead. I don’t blame anyone cause really the style of play the clippers usually played with lacked much excitement. As good as Kaman’s jump shot is, it’s never going to really get you out of your seat. Other than a occasional drive by EJ, or the limited minutes by DJ, nothing last year would get me up out of my seat like some of the plays BG had last summer and preseason.
Season
Steve,
With all due respect here, I thought the season would get underway October 27. I apologize if others have mentioned this.
Jorge
by lovinglosangeles on Aug 6, 2010 9:28 AM PDT reply actions
Need new vibe not standard analysis
All this is good “semi-expert” analysis – but what the Clips need is a new vibe. Clips need to run and need to give the the young guns some minutes (at the end of the first half, for instance) to let them grow and use up some of the energy before they languish on the bench.
How can the Clips beat the elite teams? Not by standard analysis, but by running them out of the gym. YESSS! run LeBron, Wade, and Bosch out of Staples Center by running .
What was missing from the standard analysis was the infusion of Vinny Del Negro’s impact. VDN is a breath of fresh air from Dumbleavy who thought his match-ups with the other team would somehow allow his team to play at a high level. BORING!!! Let them run, Vinny, please.
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VDN
was able to get a lot out of his guards, Rose, Salmons, Gordon, hopefully he can get the most out of Baron and EJ.
by The Blake Griffin Era on Aug 7, 2010 2:34 PM PDT reply actions
Did Rose improve that much?
He came in good. He’s still good. But is he better? Salmons? Salmons was the same player before and probably after VDN. They let Gordon go, so…? Not much to hang your argument on.
I think the better case in Vinny’s favor is that he either got Noah to stop alienating his teammates or got his teammates to stop hating on Noah. He grew up under the mook.
Rose vastly improved his ability to
make TV commercials.
by BayAreaClipper on Aug 7, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Blake Griffin replacing Camby will not help this team. BG is awesome, but Camby was one of the top 5 players in WP48 last season. You just don’t replace that.
However, if you think Baron stops smoking weed, and gets his wp48 back to .150 levels, Gordon keeps improving, and Aminu is solid, this team could win about 35-40 games.
My prediction is 35 games, with a slight comeback season for Baron, and nice improvement from everyone, but no real bona-fide player to get the team out of mediocrity.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 11, 2010 2:34 AM PDT reply actions
Hey Clips Nation Nuggets fan in LA posting here for the first time.
Hope you guys have a good season this year. I think BG is gonna open some eyes. I also think Aminu will be good especially practicing against Kaman. Can’t wait for the season to start!
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