Comparing the Suns with the Clips
by SilverClip on Sep 7, 2010 3:16 PM PDT
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With team USA's next game still a couple days away, it's looking like a slow week around here. I'm tired of talking about EJ, so here's a different topic to help fill the time. I was browsing through ESPN Insider yesterday and noticed that Broussard & Co have the Suns ranked 11th in their pre-season projections. That's 7th in the western conference, ahead of the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Kings, and Clippers (ranked 21st). I find that a little incredible. With Nash still around, it's hard to argue that we're as good as they are, but I just don't see them ranked ten spots higher than us. And a playoff team, no less. I'd like to hear what other citizens think about this.
Here are the two rosters, side by side.
Starters
Center: Lopez vs Kaman
PF: Turkoglu(?) vs Griffin
SF: Hill vs Gomes
SG: Richardson vs Gordon
PG: Nash vs Davis
Backups
Center: Frye vs DJ
PF: Warrick vs Smith
Wings: Childress and Dudley vs RButler and Foye (and Aminu)
PG: Dragic vs Bledsoe/Foye
Hmmm... 10 spots higher, you say? The Suns may have the edge in the backcourt, but then our front court should be able to barrel through theirs. Turkoglu on Griffin? Defense, rebounds, and points in the paint should be advantage Clips. Even among the starting guards, if Baron and EJ play smart and tough, then we should be able to hold our own. At the 3 spot, meanwhile, it's not like we're up against a Carmelo or a Lebron. I have a lot of respect for Hill, but he is getting up there in age... Bear in mind, too, that we're not talking about a one game matchup, but an overall season performance. Sure, the Suns have a some wily veterans, but 82 games can be hard on the knees. So many games should also serve our rookies well; I think we can reasonably expect greater contributions from them as the season rolls on. And don't you suppose that a more seasoned Aminu, along with a slowed Nash or Hill, might tip the balance in our favor?
Of course, Broussard may have a point, if indeed Baron shows up wider that Craig Smith.
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I can't tell if you are being sarcastic but
that report was completely false and Baron is around 220 lbs which is the same weight as what Gordon is listed as. Now to break down the matchups
PG:Nash vs Baron : depending on which Baron shows up this can either be a really close matchup or not at all. If Baron shows up motivated then he will be a much better defender then Nash and could easily back down Nash in the post unless the Suns switch Richardson onto Baron. But the match up still goes to Nash
SG:Richardson vs EJ: If EJ continues his good play then he can definitley be the better SG.He is the better defender and he should be able to force Richardson to show his defensive deficiencies. match up goes Gordon
SF:Hill vs Gomes: Battle of the role players, Hill the savvy old vet gets the edge here unless Gomes has a breakout season.
PF: Turkoglo vs Griffin: After coming off a horrendous season in Toronto I have very little faith in Turk, if Griffin lives up to the hype he should be the better PF. Griffin will force Turk to guard his midrange shot but if he gets to close then Griffin will blow by him for a layup or Griffin could back him down and show off his post game. Griffin gets the edge.
C:Lopez vs Kaman: here is the real mismatch for the clippers, while Lopez played well towards the end of the season his offensive game is not nearly as refined as Kaman’s. Kaman will force Lopez to guard his jumper and will punish him the post. Kaman’s main responsibility on defense will be to keep Lopez off the glass and rackup rebounds. Edge goes to Kaman.
The clippers matchup well against the Suns and could definitely beat them. I think the suns will be on decline after losing Amare and Turk won’t effectively replace him. Also the Kings should not be ranked that high they are still a year or two away from reaching their full potential and I don’t see them improving that much over last year.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Ok never mind about the first part
I am pretty sure you are being sarcastic.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Haha, yes, sarcasm is the word
Good breakdown, too. I’m really looking forward to the Turkoglu-Griffin match up. I can picture some veteran tricks slowing BG down for a time or two… but again, it’s a long season. My guess is we may lose the first head-to-head, but then after that, I like our chances. How we perform may be a good way to gauge our progress.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Not sure I agree with your Kaman/Lopez comparison.
I remember Robin shooting like 9 of 10 and going for thirty, and Kaman getting so frustrated he got himself ejected.
That made me so angry. Robin looked more like the All-Star, and I think he torched us another time after that.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Sep 7, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
But again, I suppose I should be thinking Kaman and Lopez against the league, rather than head to head.
"Buckle your seat belts, folks. This one's going down to the wire." -The inimitable Ralph Lawler.
by Gordon for President on Sep 7, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Defense, Playmaking, Chemistry, Regular Season games, and Age
Defense:
It may seem weird to say, but the Suns’ defense was a really key point last season for them. I don’t think we have seen the last of their zone defense. If the Clippers buy into Del Negro’s commitment to defense in rebounding, the Clippers may get an edge here. If you just look at the end of last season (the Clippers seemed to already give up here though), the Clippers were the worst defensive team. The uncertainty of whether things will improve is a big deciding point on rankings. Humans hate uncertainty a lot of times.
Playmaking:
The Suns have a ton of playmakers on there team, aside from just Nash, to get their whole team involved. Grant Hill is still a really good glue guy option for them. Hedo is a great playmaker, and Dragic is developing. Last year, the Clippers 2 best playmakers seemed to be Davis and Camby. With the roster shuffled around, Gomes, Foye, and Bledsoe (maybe Gordon) can emerge as good playmakers, but then again the uncertainty is there.
Chemistry:
Watching the Suns play in playoffs and throughout the season, they had amazing chemistry on and off the court. Everyone on the team knew their role and wanted to excel in it. They had an awesome bench because they all put the team ahead of themselves. With better chemistry guys on the Clippers this year, and another year of core development, the Clippers can improve on their chemistry. The potential is there (with a lot riding on Del Negro), but again its an uncertainty.
Regular Season Games:
The run and gun style that the Suns employ (it has distinctions from the Warriors) was tailor made to do well in fast paced regular season games. For the past couple of years they have been winning a lot. Their play style is important. It is still uncertain which play style the Clippers will employ, and with their track record of low regular season wins there does not seem to be a trajectory for the Clippers to necessarily improve more than the Suns might regress. Still, things can change and there is uncertainty.
Age:
The age factor will reduce the minutes Nash and Hill will play. That is why them having a great bench is so crucial. Their experience (got to the WCF) and winning mentality also gives them an edge. The Clippers can follow the path of the Thunder and use their athleticism, youth, rebounding, and defense to win a lot of games.. On paper, their mix of veterans and youth should give them a combination that can be positive, but there is still uncertainty.
The biggest thing going against the Clippers is the uncertainty, the lack of winning mentality, and the chemistry. On paper, the Clippers look like a team that can be talented, but they need to become more than just a sum of their parts to compete.
I think you're right to stress uncertainty
For once, I’d like the surprises to be mostly good ones. I suspect that first 25 games or so may get a little ugly. But I do think that we’ll start to pull things together at that point.
Broussard’s rank for us must be based largely on superstition… namely, that the Clips are cursed. The only way we end up 21st is if very little goes right for us. Instead I’d place us around 16th or 17th, and bring the Suns down to 14th or so. I think that the two teams are pretty close, if we’re looking at the season as a whole.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Broussard's ranking has to do with Baron,
being 285 lbs. I saw Baron at the all you can eat bar feasting away. I think he is now up to 300 lbs. He is going to play center next season. :)
I think that he will not play that much....
unless God forbid there is a lot of injuries. We may see him a lot in pre season but I do not expect him to be in the regular rotation. Anyone disagree?
I hopefully disagree
If Dunleavy was the coach he’d never play, but Vinny has shown he can get the best out of young players/rookies and hopefully he’ll do that again with Aminu. We already know Blake is going to be starting, why not get Aminu in the game a bit to get his feet wet, as well as Bledsoe. I truly believe the best learning is in game experience. Of course, if he’s not looking good against 2nd units then lesson the minutes to garbage time (which we hopefully have as much against us.)
AFA should be more game ready
He has a simple role, energy guy. He just needs to play D, grab rebounds and finish around the basket. Bledsoe doesn’t seem nearly polished enough to run the point as a rookie. He was turning the ball over and over during summer league and its hard to see him doing a lot of positive things this year until he learns how to play at the right pace.
FA in 2010.
WP48 09-10
Suns:
Nash .281
Richardson .176
Childress (’08) .239
Turkoglu .089
Lopez .078
Dragic .106
Hill .172
Warrick: .074
Frye: .037
Clippers:
Davis .117
Gordon .040
Gomes .020
Griffin R
Kaman .002
Foye .031
Jordan .092
Butler -.027
Smith .076
Aminu R
Chemistry, heart, teamwork, yadda, yadda…
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
That's a weird stat
I profess ignorance. But are you suggesting that Smith and DJ are better than Kaman and EJ?
Another possible criticism: Might you be putting the cart before the horse here? Isn’t it possible that some players’ numbers were low last year because the chemistry wasn’t there? If Childress were on our team last year, can you say with confidence that his WP48 would remain constant?
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
The stats suggest they produced more wins per minute
Not who is better.
The chemistry line was a joke because I don’t find those things to be factors.
Based on their performances last year, we would expect the Suns to be better than the Clippers this year unless 1) Griffin far exceeds what we expect even from a top rookie and/or 2) Age finally catches the Suns and/or 3) Kaman has one of his gooder years.
Its possible, but lots will have to go right for the Clippers and wrong for the Suns.
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
it must be horrible to only see the world through numbers and stats
http://bcnbatalk.wordpress.com/ - Scoops on Hoops!
Not always
My friend works in the fashion industry and spends a lot of time look at 34Cs and Ds. He seems okay with it.
FA in 2010.
lol
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Hmmm
Is this like a corollary of ignorance is bliss? Quantification is misery?
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
Basically right?
Hence why people won’t create metrics for their own actions…but that’s more philosophy based
I basically agree with your bottom line
I’m probably a little more optimistic, though. I think there’s a reasonable chance that the Suns start to show their age, for one. I also bet Kaman has a good year, though for reasons that you might not agree with. For starters, Kaman now has Griffin to play with. I expect that this will open up a few new opportunities, relative to when Gooden was PF. Would you deny the possibility?
I also think there’s a good chance that EJ makes a quantum leap or two, at least in certain aspects of his game. You would acknowledge that players sometimes improve, wouldn’t you? But would you then deny that a stronger outside threat (along with an occasional drive and dish) might possibly boost certain of Griffin’s and Kaman’s stats? Or conversely, would you insist that that a stronger inside presence should have no impact on Gordon’s subsequent opportunities? And don’t you think that such a dynamic might reverberate as a virtuous cycle, inside game reinforcing the outside game and vice versa?
In short, do you believe in symbiosis? I’m just trying to get a handle on how deep this goes.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
In short, do you believe in symbiosis?
Its not a question of belief. Performance the previous year is the strongest predictor of performance the current year. Apply an adjustment for age and you have a really good prediction of what a player will do.
At least on the top end. A player can always choose to dog it and under perform, of course.
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
How do new coaches and systems affect things?
For example, say hypothetically you replace a coach with a sub .400 record with a coach with a .500 record. Would that alter the equation?
What about a system that stresses different player attributes? How would affect the equation?
Thanks
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Sep 7, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Just so you know
MDSr had a .505 winning percentage before he came to the Clippers. I would hardly hang on my hat on such a weak argument.
It remains to be seen if VDN has a real system that stresses player attributes, as we covered in previous threads he is not highly regarded for his X’s and O’s. Now if games were won based on power point presentations the Clippers would be looking better.
FA in 2010.
by ClipperChuck on Sep 7, 2010 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions
He knows
He’s not here to discuss. He is here to put on a show of arguing with me.
I could demonstrate to him how what he said has been shown to be irrelevant, but it would require statistics. Then he would cry that statistics don’t mean anything. And thus the Jax circle is closed.
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
Ah the twins make a showing
Yes he was 398 and 390. However, if you actually review the coaching record, he was given the Lakers and Portland with great teams and in ensuing years he lost more. His record with Milwaukee was pathetic.
But getting back to the issues at hand, the question remains whether coaches and their systems will affect wins and losses. You to your credit recognize that this is possible.
The other guy refuses to discuss the issue – because he knows his argument is unsupportable.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
by Jax on Sep 8, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
They don't
It has been demonstrated time and time again.
But you are unable to understand simple numbers, so again, it is about arguing with me. And also your obsession with Dunleavy, of course.
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
Where has that been demonstrated? I've never seen it
And neither has anyone else to my knowledge. The fact that you say something is so doesn’t mean that you are correct.
There’s no need to get pissy over what really is a potentially legitimate discussion.
Just to be clear, I think that MDSr’s incompetence (sub .400 over seven years) has been demonstrated.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Suns without Amare and Clippers with Griffin
is too much change to rosters that comparing other players’ performances last year would be somewhat misleading… the dynamics of each team has been altered quite a bit…
+1
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Amare was always the clipper killer.
Now that he’s gone we will cool down the suns. The beast will throw a burst of highly
concentrated cool to turn off the suns. Good luck with those old guys running for 82
games.
With BG we have an exponentially better defensive team
While this is entirely my opinion, I believe it all comes down to effort. Are you will to run back on D and absolutely lock down your man? And are you attacking every loose ball?
I think we can all accept that BG was born with the mentality that doing the little things add up, and effort ultimately holds more weight thatn anything else when it comes down to team chemistry. I’d also throw gomes, smith, and EJ into that category as well.
The outcome of the whole chemistry argument will depend on how these players can influence the identity of the team. And I know these are intangibles and hold no weight those who live by the numbers, but wholeheartedly disagree with the idea that environment doesn’t affect performance.
by indy818 on Sep 8, 2010 10:00 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Nash is the difference maker...
He makes the Sun’s go… and he’d make ANY team better by a large margin.
If you swap Nash and BD, how dramatically would the team’s fortunes change? A little unfair when the Clips played without Griffin last year, but it’s got to be a ten or fifteen game difference… ANY year.
IMO, LeBron and Nash are the two biggest difference makers in the league… and Nash might be the better of the two.
The Clippers would get 9 games better
And the Suns would get 9 games worse.
Barring injuries, of course.
"To claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information." - Berri and Schmidt, Stumbling On Wins
"Hubris; H-U-B-R-I-S; Hubris" - Sean Salisbury.
Well, nine is close to ten...
What’s the differential on LeBron? Oh wait, are you swapping players? Is that figure represent the difference gained and lost between Nash and Baron Davis? So what happens if you swap LeBron and… uh… Rasual Butler? It’s got to be fifteen to twenty games, right?
What’s the stat you’re using is that Win Share?
THE TRUTH
Steve Nash is a liability on defence. Lebron D Wade and Koby play great D…remember if he could stop somebody he would have multiple championships, he has none…Defence is a huge part of the game…His teams have always scored megga points because any team he plays on is going to give up megga pionts…
I come up with 16 more wins if you swap LeBron for Butler...
No shock there. But don’t you have to factor in the Defensive Win Share as well?
I was going to ask who leads the league in WS but decided it would have to be LeBron...
And it was the last two years, but the year before that: Chris Paul, and the two years before that: Dirk. The two years before that? Garnett (that one really surprised me). Two years before that: Duncan. I was surprised by Dirk, CP3, and Garnett, but the rest of the list (going back about 30 years) seems to play out by form. Jordan and Jabbar repeat often, Bird’s there. Curiously no Magic Johnson. Actually CP3 is the only point guard on the list going back to 1960.
KG
was awesome 6 years ago (that was the year they made the WCF). Once KG had some good teammates (Sprewell and Cassell) the Wolves had a chance. If KG was drafted by a big market team run by some smart guys he could have had similar success to Duncan.
FA in 2010.
Well this particular stat certainly bears that out...
Wolves have been poorly run for a long time… and almost wasted a superstar. I knew KG was good, but I did not know how the stats bore that out. Interesting.
Almost?
they totally did. KG languished for years after the Wolves lost Marbury for nothing and lost all those draft picks in the Joe Smith fiasco. KG stuck around much longer than most stars would in those circumstances however to his credit.
FA in 2010.
Was looking at it from KG's pov...
They didn’t totally waste his abilities because he got a championship in Boston.
The Wolves squandered their chance
they got a top 5 player for 10 years and didn’t even make the Finals. Its okay though, they now have Kahn on the situation…
KAAAHHHHHNNNNNNNNNNNN!
FA in 2010.
Yup, Kahn is as entertaining as it gets.
Absolutely love the guy. Better than Isiah. And that’s saying something!
The gift that keeps on giving
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Hopefully he keeps on giving ....
Until 2012!!!!
THE KEY ISSUE
The only thing that matters is Blake Griffins Health…He is a very good player who shoud be dominating for year to come…But was the injurie a flux or is this the begging of the end…
For all those who love Steve
First and formost Steve played with Dirk, and never won a championship..He got traded, remember . Now your saying Turkoglu is going to play power foward, this can’t be true??? They will know immediatly what kind of mistake it was to let go of Stodimire…Time for the Sun to go down..bye bye baby
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