A Mid-season Analysis of the Free Agency Performance of the Lebron James Sweepstakes Six

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 2:39 PM PST

Six team entered the Lebron James sweepstakes during the July Moratorium. While each had a very different chance of actually scoring the King, to qualify they each needed to achieve certain things. First and most obviously, they needed the cap space to sign him. They also needed to be able to put championship contender pieces around him, meaning a core that was in place or enough space to sign a second star, or more. After the jump, quick data and comments on the returning vets and non-draft additions for each of the six teams' performance in 2010-11, most wins added first.

First up with 32 wins added is the Miami Heat:

Miami Heat
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Chalmers	0.071	1.2		James	0.339	11.3
				Wade	0.297	9.3
				Bosh	0.161	5
				Jones	0.109	2.2
				Ilgauskas	0.083	1.3
				Haslem	0.164	1.2
				House	0.102	1
				Arroyo	0.031	0.6
				Miller	0.112	0.4
				Dampier	0.039	0.2
				Anthony	0.003	0.1
				Magloire	0.042	0
				Stackhouse	-0.018	0
				Howard	-0.039	-0.3

		1.2	wins			32.3	wins

Obviously the Heat win free agency. That's not very interesting. What is interesting is that we aren't seeing diminishing returns on their wins produced. James, Wade and Bosh are all within career norms. They have suffered some injuries, most notably to Mike Miller. They somehow managed to secure some depth and the injuries haven't had a significant effect. Also important to note, they have managed to avoid negative producers. If they get healthy and Miller and Haslem start running on all cylinders, they will be even better.

Second place with 14 wins goes the Bulls, aka the Jazz East:

Chicago Bulls
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Rose	0.193	6.7		Boozer	0.261	4.7
Noah	0.299	5.5		Brewer	0.206	4.5
Deng	0.096	3.5		Thomas	0.143	1.8
Gibson	0.064	1.3		Korver	0.088	1.7
Johnson	-0.058	-0.1		Asik	0.091	1
				Bogans	0.043	0.7
				Lucas	-0.356	-0.1
				Scalabrine	-0.109	-0.2
				Watson	-0.023	-0.3

		16.9	wins			13.8	wins

The Bulls didn't cut nearly as deep as the Heat to start. They returned two highly productive players and one average player. Second place doesn't feel like the first loser here. (Spoiler alert: its the Cavaliers) What I am calling the Jazz inFusion has added 11 wins so far this season. Or maybe it was the coaching change. Who can possibly tell with these things? Boozer missed the first 18 games and now Noah is out for two months, and yet they are on pace to win 56 games. Not bad at all. They added both top-end producers and depth all around. A great July for the Bulls.

Bronze with 10 goes to the Knickerbockers of New York:

New York Knicks
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Gallinari	0.107	2.9		Felton	0.129	4.6
Chandler	0.053	1.7		Stoudemire	0.104	3.5
Douglas	0.051	1		Turiaf	0.053	1.7
Walker	0.043	0.4		Williams	0.07	0.7
Curry	DNP-CD (Eddy Curry)			Azubuike	0	0
				Mason	-0.187	-0.3
				Randolph	-0.121	-0.3

		6	wins			9.9	wins

One can't ignore the improvement from the Knicks this year. After winning just 29 games last year, they are currently sitting pretty at 24-21. A 20 game swing is not out of the question. What makes this more amazing is they didn't return any big producers from last year's squad after trading away David Lee for pieces. Stoudemire seems to be getting the credit, but the Knicks have benefited most from the guard play. Where Felton goes so go the wins with the Knicks up and the Bobcats down. They also pulled the most amazing move in the draft and grabbed my 2011 NBA rookie of the year in Landry Fields. By being selected in June, he was ineligible for this analysis, but you can't talk about the Knicks without talking about his 0.287 WP/48 and 8.3 wins produced so far. Still, the Knicks have lots of ok players and few great ones. If Fields misses any time it could spell disaster for their playoff hopes. The Knicks accomplished this while keeping the expiring Curry contract in their back pocket. If any team is looking to dump salary you have to like the Knicks and the Nets as the absolute favorites each with an expiring contract in excess of $11M.

Just out of the money with 2.2 wins added are the Cavaliers:

Cleveland Cavaliers
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Varejao	0.199	4.1		Sessions	0.12	2.6
Gibson	0.065	1.5		Hollins	-0.07	-0.7
Jamison	0.021	0.6		Harris	0.058	0.6
Moon	0.045	0.6		Gee	0.076	0.5
Parker	0.022	0.5		Graham	-0.057	-0.5
Powe	-0.037	-0.1		Eyenga	-0.116	-0.3
M. Williams	-0.016	-0.3
J. Williams	-0.143	-1.2
Hickson	-0.064	-1.4

		4.3	wins			2.2	wins

Wait, what? They have been fairly awful this year, but they did make one trade that has paid off: Ramon Sessions. No point in lingering on a terrible team but to say that Sessions was available and has been a personal favorite. With Sessions at the helm, the Clippers are definitely a playoff team.

In fifth with 1.4 wins added is the most flailingest team, the Nets

Brooklyn Nets
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Humphries	0.357	8.8		Farmar	0.052	1.2
Harris	0.119	3.4		Morrow	0.044	0.9
T. Williams	-0.014	-0.1		Vujacic	0.068	0.8
Lopez	-0.038	-1.2		Outlaw	0.001	0
				Murphy	0	0
				Petro	-0.017	-0.2
				Smith	-0.389	-0.2
				Ross	-0.111	-0.5
				Graham	-0.042	-0.6

		10.9	wins			1.4	wins

The Nets tried. You have to give them that. At this point Brook Lopez is just massively overrated. Still they did ok adding depth at guard with Farmar and Morrow and Vujacic. Smith and Williams have since departed in exchange for two first round picks, which along with the Murphy contract, have to make great trade bait, for people that value such things. To complete the picture, they would certainly be even worse without Favors.

Bringing up the rear with -2.5 (pronounced negative too point five) wins are your Los Angeles Clippers:

Los Angeles Clippers
Returning contracts	WP/48	Wins Produced		New additions	WP/48	Wins Produced
Griffin	0.276	9.7		Smith	0.052	0.4
Jordan	0.198	4.5		Cook	0.009	0.1
Gordon	0.137	4.4		Gomes	0.003	0.1
Davis	0.047	0.8		Diogu	-0.036	-0.2
Kaman	-0.069	-0.4		Butler	-0.052	-0.7
				Collins	-0.288	-0.9
				Foye	-0.179	-1.3

		19	wins			-2.5	wins

Fail. The Clippers returned the strongest core even if you count Wade, Haslem and Arroyo as returning Heat! Fortunately for the Clippers, Chris Kaman got hurt after 10 games freeing time for the much more productive Deandre Jordan. Its not a coincidence that this is when they started putting together some wins. Don't be in too much of a rush to call for Kaman's return. You want to be looking for another center entirely. And really, taking another crack at the whole roster. Foye is who we knew he was. Gomes, Cook, and Butler as well for that matter.

All performance stats pulled from the automated wins produced site at Nerdnumbers.com

All transaction data pulled from the NBA.com transactions page

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Comments

What's considered the average WP/48?

.1 right?

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 3:00 PM PST reply actions

Correct.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions

K thought so

10 guys on the court at one time divided by 1.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions

or...

1 divided by 10 rather.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions

Better way to think about it

If your team produces 0.500 wins (5*0.100 players) per 48 minutes, you produce half of a win every game.

At this pace you will win 41 games and be exceptionally average.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions

FYI: Above average players on the Clippers

(3) Griffin, Jordan and Gordon (hurt)

On the teams between LAC and a playoff spot

Portland: (5) Camby, Miller, Batum, Pryzbilla, Rudy (notably NOT LaMarcus Aldridge)

Memphis: (5) Randolph, Gay, Conley, Gasol, Tony Allen

Phoenix: (6) Nash, Gortat, Richardson, Dudley, Hill, Childress

Houston*: (7) Hayes, Patterson, Battier, Budinger, Martin, Lowry, Miller

Golden State: (5) Curry, Biedrins, Wright, Lee, Adrien

*On Houston I did not count Yao and Williams who have a WP/48 over 0.1 but have played less than 100 minutes.

by Michael White on Jan 29, 2011 11:41 AM PST up reply actions

Nice well-reserached article

by Michael White on Jan 28, 2011 3:38 PM PST reply actions

Conclusions aside, this is very nice work here.

As far as free agent signings go, I put the Clips in the same basic boat as NJ. That is, neither team was likely to lure a top name free agent last June with such unproven rosters. So our mistakes were made in February, not in June. We could have done a little better probably, but without a creative trade somewhere (or some handy clairvoyance) I doubt we could have done a lot better. NJ, on the other hand, pulled a major gaff by signing Outlaw. Gomes should be able to fall into a decent backup role, and Foye will be tradable next year, but Outlaw is just a prolonged waste of money. We didn’t gain a whole lot last June, but we didn’t F things up, either.

But what’s this… We’re a playoff team with Sessions? Egad, I almost choked on my sandwich. I’ll take him over Foye, but where are you coming from with such praise? That’s like saying DunJr is better than Prince.

What was Kaman’s Wins Produced in previous years? When I see him with a negative score, the first thing I think of is his poor efficiency… which we created when we made him our first scoring option. Naturally, that won’t be the case when he finally gets healthy again. I don’t know how it will work out, but I’m damn curious to see it.

"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT

by SilverClip on Jan 28, 2011 3:46 PM PST reply actions

Good points

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 28, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

Its less his role with Kaman

His TS% has fluctuated little with only one spike for 05-06. His turnover% has actually been his lowest these last two years. Doesn’t that feel unexpected? That as his usage spikes, he becomes a “first scoring option”, he takes better care of the ball?

Its that jumper pulling him away from the basket. He needs to be inside getting rebounds and being more Deandreish. He’s been taking more and more jump shots each year.

Is the coach telling him to do that? Did he just realize that he can shoot 15 footers or bang inside and get paid the same? Who knows?

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 5:55 PM PST up reply actions

"Did he just realize that he can shoot 15 footers or bang inside and get paid the same?"

+10000000000

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 28, 2011 6:13 PM PST up reply actions

+1

You said pretty much everything I wanted to re. Sessions (LMAO), Kaman, and no Outlaw-like tragic mistakes, so I won’t bother, except to point out that Kaman has had a number of much more productive years in the past (even as measured by the WP metric) and the sample size for this year is far too small to be meaningful.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 28, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions

The breakdown

“Sessions (LMAO)”
Your ignorance is no reflection on anyone else.

“no Outlaw-like tragic mistakes”
What a sad state of expectations. No tragic mistakes = win? Also, the off-season was one giant tragic mistake. How do you have $17M to spend and lose 3 wins? That’s pretty much what is written on the Epic Fail demotivational poster. I guess implicit in settling on “tragic” mistakes is the acknowledgment that some of level mistakes were made. At least we are getting somewhere.

“Kaman has had a number of much more productive years in the past (even as measured by the WP metric) and the sample size for this year is far too small to be meaningful.”
So did Magic Johnson. No point in bringing him back either. Its true that while Kaman isn’t likely to remain as poor as he started the season, he was a net zero last year too. That was a pretty big sample size.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 10:45 PM PST up reply actions

Sessions – I like him too, but as a backup. He would be a good backup. He might even be an average starter. But how in the world does he get us into the playoffs? That was the only point.

Tragic mistakes – Well hey, you were the one making the comparison. You have the Nets ranked above the Clips for last June. The Nets had oogles of cap space as well, and they too ended up with thorough mediocrity (Favors, like Aminu, may turn out better than fine, but to say so would require you to speak of “potential” and “development”). Frankly, if I had to decide choose landing Farmer and Morrow and dodging the Outlaw bullet, I wouldn’t have any trouble deciding.

Kaman and WP – The point was that last year he was the designated first option, and that this was likely a major source of his mediocrity. So to say that last year was a big sample size is neither here nor there. What was his WP the year of Kaman 2.0? You may be right that outside shooting is his problem, but from watching him shine this preseason, I just don’t believe that it’s that simple. Kaman more than most players seems to diminish or thrive based on team context.

"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT

by SilverClip on Jan 28, 2011 11:23 PM PST up reply actions

"With Sessions at the helm, the Clippers are definitely a playoff team"

And you call me ignorant. LMFAO.

By the way, it was SilverClip’s breakdown, and yet you respond to me? I guess I must’ve gotten under your skin. Go bully someone else, dickhead.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 12:00 AM PST up reply actions

No I responded to the correct person

Add pottymouth to racist I guess.

by John R on Jan 29, 2011 9:55 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

Definitely a "pottymouth"

Ooh, that stings. What’s next, you gonna call me a doodyhead? EPIC FAIL.

You never did back up that racist thing though. “Foreign players from soccer-mad countries” qualifies as a “race”? So I’m racist against Brits and Argentines and all other caucasians? I’m racist against myself? EPIC FAIL #2.

Also, I’m not the only one who questioned your utterly idiotic Sessions statement, and, as per your usual M.O., you haven’t responded to any of it, instead choosing to deflect with crap like this. So how bout it? Let’s see that Sessions + Clippers = Playoffs formula, genius. EPIC FAIL #3.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions

I don't know why Steve lets this ignorant bully

Treat others here like he does. Just don’t let him get under your skin.

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 3:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

"Sessions (LMAO)"

That’s not a question. Provide anything that approaches evidence of an original thought, and I will be happy to respond.

As you can see, when people write intelligent thing I respond in kind. When you and Jax post, I just mock or ignore you.

I’m not sure how you plan to make me go away, but a better tactic might be to write something coherent if you want attention.

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions

Questioning you ≠ incoherent

What’s incoherent are your responses when anyone dares to question one of your unfounded assertions. Multiple people have called into question your Sessions comment, for which you have provided absolutely no evidence, and all you are doing is continuing to deflect.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions

So you admit it wasn't a question

Just provide something worth replying too, and you shall have your serious reply.

The original fanpost contains plenty of evidence. Refute any of it, and you shall have your reply.

Make it about me and you will get ignored at best and most likely mocked.

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:38 AM PST up reply actions

Already refuted it multiple times

And you have ignored it every time, per your usual MO.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions

Your attitude

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 3:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Your attitude

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 3:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Your attitude makes it impossible

For reasonable people to take you seriously. You call others sad, ignorant etc fir making perfectly valid arguments and you treat your own highly debatable arguments as fact.

If anything is sad here it is you. .

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 3:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

"t-t-t-today junior!"

- Billy Madison, 1995, 3rd grade.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 30, 2011 12:46 PM PST up reply actions

Internet is hard

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions

Where can we access the WP formula?

Curious that some players like Chandler, Lopez, Taj Gibson and a few others are looked at so lowly.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 3:54 PM PST reply actions

Have fun

by Michael White on Jan 28, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks

did I miss a player finder tool for the site? Or am I going to have to plug in my own numbers manually into a spreadsheet with the formula. I’m assuming I must be missing the tool somewhere unless John R spent hours writing this post.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 4:04 PM PST up reply actions

Yes, it is there. You need to download Microsoft Silverlight for it to work though (and I can’t on my work pc.)

Go to the main page and on the right sidebar there is a section called “AA Wins Produced Numbers.” Under that heading is a link for “Wins Produced Numbers from Andres Alvarez” which will give you everything you need.

by Michael White on Jan 28, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

..drool..

I’m not off work until something like 11:30p (screw you, January), but I have a feeling I’m going to be up til at least 3:00a playing with this.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 28, 2011 4:11 PM PST up reply actions

hehe

playing with something on the internet at 3am kills kittens.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 4:12 PM PST up reply actions

This stuff is just so freaking interesting

Looking at that site M-dub (that’d be you Michael White) posted, it’s crazy how accurate total wins produced comes to actual results.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 28, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

M-dub!!

Hell yes. I’ll take it.

by Michael White on Jan 28, 2011 6:55 PM PST up reply actions

Not sure I know what you mean for sure...

But if you’re saying that Wins Produced for the players on a team maps pretty accurately to the total wins for that team, well that’s not really surprising is it? Wins produced is derived from the accumulated statistics for the team, and those statistics of course correlate directly to wins. Points scored maps even more accurately to a team’s record, since points are how we keep score in basketball… Wins produced is just a means of allocating the wins of a team across the players on that team, and is a very controversial means of doing so. The question isn’t whether the totals come out close to actual results – of course they do – but rather if it’s an accurate allocation to the individuals.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 28, 2011 11:54 PM PST up reply actions

Which of course it isn't

Since it basically advocates fielding a team of 5 Ben Wallace/DeAndre Jordan types, whether or not they can shoot from more than 5 feet.

(Cue John R getting his panties in a bunch. Save your breath, you Clipper-hating troll.)

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 12:07 AM PST up reply actions

You do retain the option of keeping your mouth shut about things you don't understand and allowing us to you only think you are a fool

You know I am never going anywhere, right? This one fanpost was more contribution than you have ever made. Multiply times 4 years, and its easy to see that I am not the problem
here.

by John R on Jan 29, 2011 9:59 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

And you do retain the option of not always being a jerk

But you never choose to use it.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions

No contribution is better than a piece of junk like this.

Ramon Session’ll lead Clips to the playoffs….what a boatload of crap.

by RockyMountain on Jan 29, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

Again you are baiting others here with

Highly debatable arguments that many if not most disagree with. Youre not a Clipper fan a d you ought not use this site to bully others for disagreeing with your pet stat guru whose system has weaknesses you apparently don’t understand.

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 3:24 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Expending this much verbiage

to reach an utterly obvious conclusion isn’t a “contribution.” It’s a cry for help.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions

Actually John R did have it on there

missed it earlier unless he edited it.

http://nerdnumbers.com/automated-wins-produced

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 5:42 PM PST up reply actions

Me too

It’s so hard when the eye test tells me that Taj Gibson brings a lot to the game with his hustle and constant activity (only, he doesn’t).

I’m surprised about your conclusion regarding Sessions as well, but I can’t say I’ve ever watched him play. He was miserable after being a seemingly overrated free agent a year and a half ago.

What the hell, Randy Foye. WHAT THE HELL. And I’m surprised Kaman is so low compared to DJ, but I don’t know if that tells the whole story. DJ can’t create for himself, but he’s great at cutting and knowing where to be on offense. Kaman is essentially the opposite. If you put DJ in a situation or system where he’s forced to try and score the way Kaman was scoring, you lose a lot. Just like if you take Baron Davis of 2006-2007 and put him in a situation like Baron Davis of 2007-2008, you will lose a lot as well. Was there a huge dropoff in wins produced for Baron between those years? This is why I think that systems have to matter, and by definition, coaches must matter (if only because they implement the systems). Right?

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 28, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions

Nice Article

I just also wanted to add I liked the way you formatted it too. It made it easy to read and compare stats.

by ClipperTheorist on Jan 28, 2011 3:59 PM PST reply actions

Sbnation lets you cheat in tables now with the paste from Word feature!

A glorious day.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions

Awesome...

No more formatting with spaces.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 28, 2011 6:14 PM PST up reply actions

Well played

There is of course something on the other side of the ledger as well – the contracts awarded to these additions. The Clippers added nothing of value (less than nothing as measured by wins produced) , but they didn’t commit a lot either.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 28, 2011 5:14 PM PST reply actions

3 years of cap flexibility is still a lot

To go from max space to less than MLE space is a lot in my opinion. Last summer was the Clippers only chance to sign FAs for the next couple of years and that’s before factoring in likely more restrictive future CBA deal.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 5:19 PM PST up reply actions

Craig Smith is the second worst thing to happen to the Los Angeles Clippers.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions

Baron or Sterling #1?

I've got nothing.

by bc56274 on Jan 28, 2011 8:18 PM PST up reply actions

Sterling, by a wide margin

Baron hasn’t really hurt the Clippers at any step. There were times he could have been a much bigger help, but he hasn’t really ever done damage.

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions

That right there sums up everything wrong with your myopic worldview

A marginally positive win score ≠ “hasn’t ever really done damage.” Not being in shape to start the season when you’re the team’s highest-paid player and supposed leader — twice in three seasons — does in fact qualify as doing damage.

Believe it or not, basketball is a game played by humans; it’s not just numbers in a computer simulation. And acting like the numbers are all there is to it makes you just as ridiculously simple-minded as you so often accuse others of being.

But thanks again for coming out of the woodwork now, after EJ’s injury, to kick us while we’re all down. Surprising, though, that we didn’t hear a peep from you during the 11-4 stretch, since you are allegedly a Clippers fan and as such would’ve been expected to take some joy out of that run.

Go away, troll. For the love of god, just go away.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 12:21 AM PST up reply actions

Cool story, bro

Fat or not, at least when Baron Davis is out there, Randy Foye isn’t. Even fat Baron was helping.

by John R on Jan 29, 2011 9:52 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

Cool story, bro

Fat or not, at least when Baron Davis is out there, Randy Foye isn’t. Even fat Baron was helping.

by John R on Jan 29, 2011 9:53 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

Asperger's Syndrome says what?

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

Low blow

no bueno.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 30, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions

As if his calling me a racist wasn't?

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 30, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions

Touche

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 30, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions

Racist was pretty much right on target

Your comment was titled “Eurotrash” if I remember correctly.

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 9:58 AM PST up reply actions

And what "race" am I impugning with that?

The “European” race? You might have an argument for jingoistic, but certainly not racist.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 10:31 AM PST up reply actions

Ignorant, prejudiced, inflammatory?

What part of that is positive or commendable? Please stop cluttering up threads with your hateful rants.

by ClipCat on Jan 31, 2011 11:17 AM PST up reply actions

Oh please

You should be directing your comments to the incitor

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 31, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions

I did

At least your debates with JR are sometimes entertaining, but all the imitators are taking it too far. We should all take the advice you often give out, and just enjoy the season.

by ClipCat on Jan 31, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

That's right - we are the original!!

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Feb 1, 2011 1:01 PM PST up reply actions

Hmmm

Do you even know the post he’s trying to tar me with? Nobody took issue with it at the time, and except for the inflammatory (I’ll grant you) headline, there was nothing ignorant, prejudiced, or racist about it. There was only my opinion that players from soccer-loving countries flop more than Americans, a perception that a whole lot of people share.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions

Yes, I read it, and it was all the things I wrote about it. Seemed to be more about getting attention than sharing an intelligent thought. I also was referring to the overall body of your work. IMO John R would be better off ignoring you, but I notice a pattern. He writes something about basketball that he’s studied and considered. You get upset and make the conversation about him. I don’t care whether you agree and don’t plan to debate you further. I’m just tired of wading through silly rants to find the informed opinions. It’s weak.

by ClipCat on Jan 31, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions

Just like your weak post about Biedrins?

In which you make unfounded claims about his numbers, I respond with the real numbers, and then you … do what? Ignore that too?

Posting verifiably wrong info is what’s weak. And not owning up to it when you do is even weaker.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions

My apologies

Just went back there and see that you did respond. Though obviously you’ve already formed an opinion of me, that certainly won’t keep me from admitting when I’m wrong.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 4:45 PM PST up reply actions

And about this pattern

How about scrolling to the top of this board. I didn’t “make it about him.” I responded to SilverClip, agreeing with some of his analysis and adding one observation of my own about Kaman’s sample size. Then John R proceeded to make it about me. I did what you’re accusing me of with the Eric Gordon thing, but I didn’t do it here. Hardly a pattern.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 4:30 PM PST up reply actions

So your point is that Baron Davis is a worse thing to happen to the Clippers than Donald Sterling?

And its me that’s myopic?

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions

There you go again making illogical leaps because you fail with logical ones

I didn’t dispute your assertion that Sterling was worse than Davis. I only disputed your assertion “Baron hasn’t really hurt the Clippers at any step.”

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions

So you attack a minor point in a larger comment

And you think this warrants a serious reply?

Great job!

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions

Ridiculous

Other than the headline, the entire comment I responded to was about Baron Davis, not Donald Sterling.

Nice try, he who deflects all criticism rather than ever answering it honestly.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 10:47 AM PST up reply actions

I would acknowledge serious criticism

The main point was Sterling is worse than Davis. If you don’t disagree with that point…

What was your point?

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions

No you wouldn't, because you continue to childishly dodge it

“Baron hasn’t really hurt the Clippers at any step. There were times he could have been a much bigger help, but he hasn’t really ever done damage.”

Your words, to which I brought serious criticism. Your failure to acknowledge it as such just proves both your thin skin and your intellectual shortcomings. But keep clicking your heels, Dorothy, and maybe someday the world really will conform to your narrow, myopic outlook.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 31, 2011 1:16 PM PST up reply actions

This guy has never acknowledged anything

And the criticism is so obvious. Waste of time.

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Feb 1, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions

Oh man

the Pistons got a steal for TMac. 4 wins for the minimum. Good value.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 5:47 PM PST reply actions

Beating the odds so far

Asking to be waived to play for a contender in 5…4…3…

by John R on Jan 28, 2011 6:13 PM PST up reply actions

Sure could use him right now, with EJ out.

"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.

by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Jan 28, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions

Could have used him all season

better SF than Gomes and could have played PG when Baron was out.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 28, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions

+1.. I was on the T-Mac bandwagon when they brought him here to work him out.. I wish they would've just friggin signed him!

"look, you can find any coach you want, bring him in here and run the situation. But I don't think they are going to do as good a job as I do." -Mike Dunleavy Sr.

by CLiPPz WeRD 12 on Jan 29, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions

when you're right, you're right

I definitely didn’t expect a T-Mac renaissance. oh well!

he’ll probably get hurt again anyway.

"He has a tenacity to win and a tenacity to be out there and just kill people." -Baron Davis, on Blake Griffin

by Raining Buckets on Jan 29, 2011 8:09 PM PST up reply actions

Silver lining

It would be fun to see which team has the best wins produced to total $s committed ratio. The one silver lining for the Clips is that they didn’t commit to huge contracts for the free agents they did sign. They may have the opportunity to go out and acquire a free agent this summer to fill in. And, I’m certainly in favor of unloading Kaman if the Clips can get decent value in return. DJ should be resigned and is a better fit for the team now that BG and EJ are the first two options.

Of course, what no one knows at this point is how a new CBA will change the rules, which teams will benefit and which ones will lose out. If they go with a franchise tag like the NFL, it would mean just one player can be designated, it’s only for one year, and I don’t believe you can designate the same player two years running. Maybe someone can educate me on the franchise tag in the NFL.

by Mike Wr on Jan 29, 2011 8:36 AM PST reply actions

This is a great discussion starter

I’ve got a few points that are all over the place.

I’ll admit, I’m still having a hard time completely buying into WP over PER. While I acknowledge PER has its faults too, I think WP is much too punitive to missed shots which leads to be a bit too enthusiastic regarding rebounds.
That

by Michael White on Jan 29, 2011 8:51 AM PST reply actions

Morning type fail (continued)

That being said, I’m interested in the players where the two metrics diverge in their conclusions. Many of the players I like are rated favorably in both places such as Griffin, Randolph and Westbrook. Others have striking differences such as Carmelo Anthony (higher in PER) and Thabo Sefalosho (a WP star.)
Another problem I’ve had is the assumption that things would never change on the less efficient players assuming you dropped them onto a team with more talent. This is pertinent with Anthony vs. Sefalosha. Thabo would never be able to do the things that Carmelo could in terms of winning a game, but Anthony (if he chose of course) could be more selective and focus on rebounds. Thabo is on a team which is absoultely perfect for him and that’s fortunate for him, but what could he do when he’s not on a team with Durant and Westbrook?
Broad observation: I wish you could find the WP figures on basketball reference. The more places you can find these stats, the more accepted they’ll become. And like I said above, I’d like to have WP numbers right next to PER numbers, mostly because I’m lazy.
Lastly, OKC seems to be a monster team where WP is concerned but they have a huge weakness at PF. A player that WP loves is also a favorite of mine in Zach Randolph. If OKC traded Jeff Green for Zach Randolph would they win a title? Seems like they’d be in the discussion. I actually think Memphis would sign off on that kind of trade if they realize they are out of the race.

by Michael White on Jan 29, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

Where were you during the 11-4 stretch?

This is all well and good, and is pretty spot on except for the Sessions nonsense. But why didn’t you post this 2 weeks ago? It’s funny how we didn’t hear a peep from you when the team was winning, since you are allegedly a Clippers fan and as such would’ve been expected to take some joy out of that run.

As it happens, it appears the only joy you get comes from shouting “I told you so” when things are going bad. How very pathetic.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 11:25 AM PST reply actions

This is a mid-season analysis

He couldn’t write this two weeks ago as the Clips played less than 41 games two weeks ago.

I think the conclusion is pretty much the same as anyone would expect. Without EJ the Clippers are ****ed.

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 29, 2011 5:50 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for helping to prove my point

The 41st game was actually 10 days ago, and it was before EJ got hurt and the wheels came off. So if the “mid-season” thing was really the intent, that would’ve been the time to do it.

But as you well know, that wasn’t really the key point of the post you just responded to. The point is that we never hear a peep from this so-called Clippers “fan” when things are going well. In fact, we never hear a positive peep from him at all. You may be just as down on the FO as he is, but at least we hear from you when they’re winning, and you seem pleased when they do. You seem to enjoy the emergence of EJ and the incredible highlight reel that is Blake Griffin, and get some satisfaction out of watching them play.

John R? Not so much. He completely disappeared when things were going well, only to reemerge now so that he can get his jollies by saying “I told you so.” In fact, he has yet to say a positive word about anything related to the Clippers in the two years I’ve been coming to this site. And just the other day he admitted that one of the grenades he threw “had the intended effect” — the effect of pissing everyone off. Defend him all you want, but he’s still a pathetic troll who comes here only to try to infect others with his misery.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.

by boltsfan21 on Jan 29, 2011 6:31 PM PST up reply actions

Not really defending him

John R is definitely a unique character. But from what I’ve picked up the 2 and a half years I’ve visited this blog is he does care about the Clips but he isn’t the kind of guy who cheers for the heck of it. He was the first one to predict the Clippers signing Baron in fact and was pretty happy about it if I recall correctly (as was pretty much everyone, even Jax though he denies it now).

Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.

by ClipperChuck on Jan 29, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions

Just so we're clear

If MDSr would have used the guy correctly and not signed him to a five year deal it would have been fine.

But the fact htat MDSr was so clueless about EB is inexcusable. EB like most good NBA players did not think much of MDSr. Heck, he told me that personally. I predicted they wouldn’t be able to resign their keey FA and I’m no rocket scientist.

Capiche?

Predicting that they would ridiculously overpay for BD bidding against no one is supposed to be special? (Assuming he “predicted” that – 99% of his predictions have turned out to be wrong).

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 9:31 PM PST up reply actions

LOL

Aren’t you the guy who predicted, using your alleged inside sources, that Dunleavy would be fired in like 2007.

Good call.

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

When did I say that?

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 31, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions

Heh

Gordon will keep EB in a Clipper uniform.

Arenas will be a Laker.

Philly is a great young team with a bright future and EB will be a good fit.

Its funny the things that pop up when you quickly search for Jax and sources.

by John R on Jan 31, 2011 10:35 AM PST up reply actions

i think we all were thinking that about philly and brand

i remember that was the one team that scare us. they were young, if i recall correctly had just have a great playoff series (they lose but give a fight i think ) and had a need at PF.

by XXDC2XX on Jan 31, 2011 7:18 PM PST up reply actions

Of course he's totally wrong anyway

Anyone with ahlf a brain can see the improvement in the Clippers this year and how the system, the coaching staff and the FO are much better. Coming on here just to use stats to prove some incorrect point, while bashing Clips fans, continually, is a bit much.

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 29, 2011 9:27 PM PST up reply actions

Today's MVP

Has to go to John R for lighting a fire under Foye and Gomes. Combined 39 points today after the article.

Good article……I dunno if it would be more helpful though to compare the additions with what we gave up…….What is the total of guys like Blake, Outlaw,etc…..versus what we have now.

by sqiuggy on Jan 29, 2011 10:19 PM PST reply actions

Well I think John's argument is

The opportunity cost. While Gomes and Foye may or may not be playing better than Outlaw and Blake, the fact is that Outlaw and Blake weren’t our only other options. We could have signed any number of players (or as John would probably say, a couple of mannequins) and our wins-produced would have been better than what it is now. By getting no contributions from Gomes or Foye, we’d supposedly be better.

Maybe that’s true, or maybe it isn’t, but I’d prefer to think that Gomes has done a lot that doesn’t show up in the stat sheet, like hockey assists. These probably won’t help his wins-produced, but I see it when I watch him. To me, by him NOT doing what Al Thornton used to do (100 jab steps, low percentage fade away) I think he’s being a good 5th option and helping set the table for guys like EJ and Griffin to take the reins.

Blake Show > Lake Show

by Erik O on Jan 30, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions