The Draft if the Season is Cancelled - Good News for the Clippers

by Steve Perrin on Nov 7, 2011 11:35 PM PST in News

Of course none of us want the season to be cancelled. We want to watch NBA basketball now. Every game cancelled is a potentially a life-altering Blake Griffin dunk or two that we don't get to see, and will never get to see. It makes me sad just to think about it.

And no one really knows for certain how the 2012 draft will be handled if they do cancel the season - but we can make a pretty good guess. Ric Bucher tweeted his best guess based on his sources Monday night:

So guess who has the worst aggregate record over the past three seasons? It's the Minnesota Timberwolves, by a pretty wide margin. Oh, and guess who owns Minnesota's 2012 draft pick outright? You may have already been aware that the Los Angeles Clippers own that particular pick.

Not only that, the Clippers haven't been so great themselves for the last few years, compiling the fifth worst aggregate record during that time. Which means, assuming a lottery relatively similar to the usual one for the bottom 14 teams, that the Clippers will have two sets of ping pong balls adding up to pretty good odds at a couple of good pick. They'll have the best odds of getting the number one overall pick of course, and pretty decent odds of getting two picks in the top 5. Furthermore, again assuming standard lottery rules, they'll definitely get to keep both of their 2012 picks, since they are top 10 protected and the Clippers lowest possible draft position for their second pick would be eighth. (Remember that their protected 2012 pick was traded to Oklahoma City on draft day last year for Eric Bledsoe, and that pick was subsequently traded by the Thunder to Boston.)

That's two high lottery picks in a draft that figures to be historically good, as it will likely include many of the top prospects from the High School class of 2010 that stayed in college an extra year to avoid the NBA lockout (looking like a smart move, Jared and Harrison) in addition to those from a very talented class of 2011.

So while we would all definitely prefer a season, if indeed this is the 2012 draft formula, it's at least a little consolation.

Here are the aggregate records for the last three seasons for all 30 NBA teams. Memphis actually sneaks into the lottery as do the Knicks.

Tm	AggW	AggL
MIN	56	190
SAC	66	180
WAS	68	178
NJN	70	176
LAC	80	166
GSW	91	155
TOR	95	151
DET	96	150
NYC	103	143
IND	105	141
PHI	109	137
MEM	110	136
CHA	113	133
MIL	115	131
OKC	128	118
NOH	132	114
HOU	138	108
PHO	140	106
UTA	140	106
ATL	144	102
CHI	144	102
CLE	146	100
MIA	148	98
POR	152	94
DEN	157	89
DAL	162	84
SAS	165	81
BOS	168	78
ORL	170	76
LAL	179	67

Tweet Comment 46 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

wow, sucks to be cleveland

by XXDC2XX on Nov 7, 2011 11:44 PM PST reply actions

no kidding

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Nov 8, 2011 12:18 AM PST up reply actions

eh, they got 2 top 5 picks this year

no sympathy from me

Check out http://fullyclips.com/ - Really Great Clippers blog!

by peterghost on Nov 8, 2011 12:35 AM PST up reply actions

Two top 5 picks in a weak draft

"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown

by bestclipfan on Nov 8, 2011 1:28 AM PST up reply actions

the 2 high draft picks still had a lot of value and could have been traded

Check out http://fullyclips.com/ - Really Great Clippers blog!

by peterghost on Nov 8, 2011 11:38 AM PST up reply actions

And they had LeBron James for 7 years.

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 8, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions

they did fine this year and enjoyed a great run with Lebron - no sympathy here...

by banandy on Nov 8, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions

The only way I want to see us have two 2012 picks is if there is no season.

In this scenario:

If Drummond is available, we probably end up with a center and SF.
If Drummond is gone, then we’d could draft a SF and a PG.

Having 2 lottery picks would eat up cap space and prevent us from signing a Paul, Howard or Williams outright. However, we could: a.) still sign a serviceable player and keep the youngins, b.) package one of the picks/selections in a S&T for Paul, Howard or Williams, or c.) amnesty Gomes and try to package Williams in a deal to free up space to sign a FA outright.

Proud member of Club FTR

by Lawler 4ever on Nov 8, 2011 1:07 AM PST reply actions

I think we just found our Olshey replacement.

"The number 2" Projected Colts wins and number of students from Tennessee attending Vanderbilt.

by PV Mike on Nov 8, 2011 6:47 AM PST up reply actions

Hmmm...

There doesn’t seem to be a point guard in the top fifteen or so.

by John Raffo on Nov 8, 2011 7:00 AM PST up reply actions

then maybe...

draft a SF with one top pick (we keep)
draft another top talent any position then we trade him (and another parts needed) for Chris Paul AND their 1st round draft pick
use the NOH draft pick to draft someone like Austin Rivers…still good but not as great, but its okay because he is Chris Paul’s backup

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 7:51 AM PST up reply actions

This Is Reason #99999+ That I Want There To Be A Season

I want to see what Aminu can do in his second year before getting on the we have to draft a SF bandwagon.

I also want to see what Eric can do with a second season. Williams IMO is awful or at best well below the type of talent that the Clippers need to have at the starting PG position..

Also what if there is no season, we draft a SF with our top pick and DJ bolts. I sure as heck don’t want Kaman starting again.

Time to get it done and time to play.

by Buddahfan on Nov 8, 2011 8:11 AM PST up reply actions

seeing how Aminu and Bledsoe develop is a great thing

but at the same time…u might have to sacrifice something in order to get something better

are players like Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, et al. better than Aminu? so far they appear to be. Will they have a longer/more successful NBA career? unknown, but most likely. wouldn’t you rather develop a player that is good already AND have potential to be better or stick with a player that is just okay and have potential to be better?

ur argument is almost like…..“well DeAndre Jordan is going to be good, i can feel it! we just need to see some more seasons in him. so with that said, forget about drafting Blake Griffin, we need to see what DeAndre Jordan will become!”

would you really pass up your chance on that just to see someone else “develop potential”? NBA player turnover rate is pretty high compared to most everyday jobs

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions

So Far They Appear To Be?

say what?

I never understood how people including so called experts can compare what a player does in college hoops with a NBA player even one with only one season.

Seriously there have been many a NCAA Hoops studs who have fallen far short of their NCAA exploits once they entered the NBA.

1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Michael (Mr. All World LOL) Beasley
3. Adam Morrison

are just three examples that pop quickly into my head of players whose NBA record to date is far below what they were hyped at while in college.

===
As far as DJ goes IMO he doesn’t fall into the same category in any way with EB and A-F.

1. DJ has a lot more NBA experience. He has 3,955 career minutes in the NBA so far. EB has 1,841 and A-F has 1,452.

2. Centers develop at a different speed and age than Wing players.

If you want to talk about DJ fine. Lets talk about D.J. vs say the much hyped ESPN darling Andre Drummond. No one has any idea how good he will or will not become. Now I have not seen him play yet so have no opinion on his game. However, it seems like quite a stretch to say that a kid who hasn’t played a regular season NCAAA hoops game is going to be such and such. Lets see him play about 30 NCAA games before we go off the deep end on this guy as a college player yet alone a NBA player

One thing I can say relative to NCAA Centers who have played college games is keep an eye on Josh Smith. He has slimmed down even more and put up 27 – 6 in as I recall 22 minutes in the Bruins first pre-season game. I am not going to go into all the reasons here that I think Smith could become a top five pick when he comes out.

Suffice is to say, I recommend hoops fans watch as many Bruins games this season as they can, on tape if necessary if they conflict with Clippers games. LOL

by Buddahfan on Nov 8, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions

Agreed, translation from college (or overseas) to NBA is not perfect

like all things, u can’t predict the future, i’ll give you that

but for the same reason of saying draft picks might be busts…its the same as draft picks might be diamonds (See you D.Blair reference below).

While Aminu has shown promise, he still has work to do on the NBA level…just as any other rookie would have to. I don’t see anything wrong with getting another “potentially high” talented SF to battle Aminu for minutes. Who knows maybe Aminu will be better than say Harrison Barnes enough that Aminu is a top SF in the league and Barnes becomes a great 6th man…i say that is a good problem to have and is something that should be given the chance with the opportunity we have in front of us.

===

okay if you want to throw the center factor into it…then what about Mike Taylor?

Should NO have NOT have traded for Eric Bledsoe (who you want to see developed by the way) because we had Mike Taylor? Mike Taylor had almost all the tools Bledsoe has, but more minutes (NBA and NBDL). So by minutes alone Taylor should win right? Even though, talent-wise…even before an NBA game was played for Bledsoe, he seemed to be the better basketball player.

…all i’m trying to say is….drafts can be hit or miss, free agency can be hit or miss, trades can be hit or miss….

but drafts will most likely get you the most bang for your buck (young, potentially talented, cheap rookie contract).

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 11:38 AM PST up reply actions

I Am Not Against The Clippers Having Two High First Round PIcks

Of course I don’t want there to be a season just so EB and A-F can get another year of experience.

I want to see the Clippers play and enjoy being entertained by Lawler and Smith.

I want to hear live “First to a hundred wins, It’s the law”

by Buddahfan on Nov 9, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions

as much as i miss the clippers

looking at the big picture…

already missed games…and no real end in sight

why not just miss the rest and stock up on a super young/talented team so the next full season can be even more fun?

(though i will rest my case….it comes to matter of opinion when the debate deals with the passion for the game that you dont care about anything else as long as you can see them play. its a love vs thought kind of thing and your point is understood.)

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 10, 2011 7:47 AM PST up reply actions

I forgot

If we lose a season, is that a season lost on contracts as well? Or is the 2011 contract year just pushed for the 2012 season

by UC.Clipper on Nov 8, 2011 5:14 AM PST reply actions

I always assumed it is a lost year of wages on the contract

so Kaman would be a Free Agent, and Dwight, CP3, and Dwill all could be as well.

In which case, I’d amnesty Mo, sign CP3 and Dwight, resign EJ, and the 1st rounders ;)

then build around Gomes as the starting SF.

by osamu on Nov 8, 2011 6:14 AM PST up reply actions

This is correct...

A season lost on contracts. Kaman, FA, etc.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Nov 8, 2011 8:44 AM PST up reply actions

Why amnesty Mo? He's worth the money IMO

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Nov 8, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah

No need to amnesty (unless we absolutely need the cap space)…. Mo would be a perfect 6th man off the bench, a la Jason Terry.

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 8, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions

I was just thinking

that to afford 2 max players, + I think EJ’s extension kicks in (unless you want to try and get him to play for the QO), you’d pretty much need Mo’s capspace. And that’s not even considering the 2 potential first rounders which I think have a cap hold the day they’re drafted.

I’m not sure exactly how it works, and I’m sure some details on the new CBA would have to be addressed, maybe there’s a way to finagle a way that Gomes’ capspace would be sufficient.

by osamu on Nov 8, 2011 1:51 PM PST up reply actions

Oh good call

Maybe we trade away the lower of our first round picks and make the receiving team take Gomes and/or Foye? I’m not sure how it’ll work either :\

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 8, 2011 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

remember

in this scenario….

Kaman and Foye (and Cook and Warren) are off ourbooks (expired) and Gomes will be on his last year (trade bait)
…not to mention current free agents will also be off the books (Rhino, Ike, Moon, and Jordan)

meaning we can sign 2 max players (well expensive players..didnt do the math)…extend Gordon….re-sign Jordan…sign draft picks…then fill the roster with whatever money/capspace is left…if any

I’m sure vets will die for a minimum contract to play with a starting lineup of Chris Paul/Deron Williams-Eric Gordon-Harrison Barnes?-Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan
with Mo Williams, Al-Farouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, Ryan Gomes

or something like that

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

oh yea i'm assuming that the 2 max contracts

are Griffin and Paul/Deron

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 2:00 PM PST up reply actions

You had me at Gomes.

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 8, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions

well in your lineup,

if you can amnesty Mo, and not resign DJ,
and pick up Dwight instead, I think that’s a pretty no brainer.

hey, it could happen

McWorld~~

by osamu on Nov 8, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions

If There Is A Season

Most likely the Clips get only one lottery pick with their own pick probably coming between 15 – 20. The Wolves pick probably would get fewer ping pong balls if there is a season.

For discussion purposes lets say if there is a season the Clips get the 3rd and 16th pick.

It would be interesting to compare the history of the first and third picks. My guess is that there is not a lot of difference.

However when we compare the eight and sixteenth picks historically the 16th pick has often enough turned out to be a better NBA player than the 8th pick.

For Example

2009 – J. HIll was picked 8th and James Johnson 16th – Too close to call at this point as to who will eventually be bettere

2008 – j. Alexander 8th and M. Speights 16th. Roy Hibbert was drafted 17th that season. So 2008 goes to the higher picks and it is not even close.

2007 – B. Wright 8th and N. Young 16th. I give the edge to Young by a wide margin

I am pretty sure that there are a bunch more seasons in which the 16th pick turned out better than the 8th pick.

So to the tell the truth, I don’t see much of a historical record that supports the idea that the Clippers would do better in the next draft if there is no season vs if there is a season.

JMO

by Buddahfan on Nov 8, 2011 7:01 AM PST reply actions

and im sure there are a lot of other drafts when the 8th pick was better

also historically…pre-Gordon/Jordan/Blake picks…the Clippers were not that great

the difference now…NO. who has the Bledsoe pick/trade under his belt. with higher picks, i’m confident that NO is more competent at evaluating talent than those in charge in the past

I Am Witness to the 1st BLAKE GRIFFIN Triple-Double! And the 2nd Triple-Double!

by KidJustin on Nov 8, 2011 8:08 AM PST up reply actions

So You Agree With Me Then

So to the tell the truth, I don’t see much of a historical record that supports the idea that the Clippers would do better in the next draft if there is no season vs if there is a season.

I say that you agree because that is what I said. In some drafts the 8th pick was better than the 16th and in some case not so.

IMO It is not just a question of evaluating talent that results in a better pick. There are many factors that go into it and IMO drafting is as much an art as a science. Look at D. Blair. No way he should have fallen to the second round. Everyone knew how good he was from watching him at Pitt. However, he fell because of his history of knee injuries and operations. The Spurs were finally the ones who took the chance and they have quite a ballplayer in Blair.

Then there is Oden. Great talent but. Can Pritchard be faulted for passing on KD and drafting Oden? Should he have factored in Oden’s injury history dating back to high school before he drafted him? Even then for every Oden there is a Blair. That is why drafting is as much an art as a science especially when you get below the first three or four picks. Even then there will always be the Darko’s of the world and Joe D. has done a pretty good job the last two years in the draft with Jarebko and Monroe. Lose some and win some. LOL

There is also the psychological aspect of it. It is sometimes very hard to tell how motivated a college player will be once he gets that first multimillion dollar contract. There are tons of NBA players with less talent whose careers surpass those with more talent simply because they are more highly motivated to get better and win. Very often that motivational factor is not known until a number of seasons after a player is drafted.

Bottom line is I would rather the see a season and see what Aminu and Eric can bring in a second season before drafting more players. JMO

by Buddahfan on Nov 8, 2011 8:28 AM PST up reply actions

That's an awful lot of cherry picking

In those 3 years, #8 was by the worst pick out of the top 10, just by sheer luck. #9 was considerably better in all 3 years. Does that mean #9 is always better than #8 pick? C’mon, man.

I know you’re saying it’s just your opinion, but it’s extremely misleading to say that there’s no evidence that the Clippers would do better in the draft if there’s no season vs if there is a season. If there is no season, the Clippers are guaranteed 2 picks (in the top 8). If there is a season, the Clippers are only guaranteed 1 pick (and it could fall anywhere). Trying to argue that a later pick could be better than an earlier pick is really beside the point.

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 8, 2011 12:13 PM PST up reply actions

ISM That You Are Misinterpreting My Post

I never said that the the two higher never wind up being better.

What I said is that the two higher picks may wind up better or may wind up worse and that drafting is an art as much if not more so than a science.

by Buddahfan on Nov 9, 2011 8:40 AM PST up reply actions

No, what you said was:

So to the tell the truth, I don’t see much of a historical record that supports the idea that the Clippers would do better in the next draft if there is no season vs if there is a season.

So I said:
No-season = 2 picks in the top 8
Season = 1 pick + maybe 1 pick, neither guaranteed to be top 8.

Nevermind the fact that you arbitrarily chose the 16th pick as the team’s second pick, and you chose 3 years when the 16th pick was better than the 8th pick. Draft picking is certainly an art form, but it’s silly to say that because it’s an art form, drafting 16th or 8th is really the same thing.

And really, at the end of the day, it’s about getting the most guaranteed picks. We lose our pick if it’s after 10th, and if there’s no season, that’s impossible. Therefore, the silver lining to the lockout is that we draft better if there is no season. This was the point of Steve’s article, and it’s valid.

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Nov 9, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions

I dont want to sound mean

But I honestly dont know what you are trying to argue half the time. You just go way off track.

For another thing, DaJuan Blair is not exactly a huge steal or anything. Yes, having a 2nd round pick who can play decent minutes is fine, but Blair is a rotation guy, good for 10-15 minutes of activity in a game, nothing more. His size limits what he can do on defense and on the boards in the NBA.

Yes, the 8th-10th picks are often tricky, but overall, they probably end up better than the 16th picks. And I honestly dont know how you can say that there is not a lot of difference between the 3rd and 16th picks. There is a ton of difference, and it isnt even close.

by NewCavsfan on Nov 8, 2011 5:26 PM PST up reply actions

i kinda agree

kinda disagree. Are you trying to argue that there is no difference between a early lottery pick and a post-lottery pick? or specifically looking at the 8th pick? The 8th pick (for whatever reason) has been historically bad. But if you want to compare 7th or 9th or even 10th to post-lottery picks, and go back even further, I think on average it’ll have much higher talent than earlier than at 16. So i’m not sure how that supports the claim that an early pick isn’t better… at 9 you have guys like Iggy, Noah, Augustin, DeRozan. Now if you’re trying to figure out why the 8th hasn’t been a great draft selection, that’s kinda a mystery to me. I mean besides Rudy Gay, the 8th has been generally pretty horrible, haha. You have to go back to even like Vin Baker before you find someone taken at 8th that even made an all-star game.

As far as talent evaluation, I mean definitely takes some skill, but it’s still an educated guess and nearly impossible to be highly consistent at it. People tried at great lengths to make a science out of it, and some people like Morey, seem to be doing pretty well at finding talent late in the draft, well mostly w/ like Brooks, Budinger, and Landry (although they’ve had a TON of late 1st round/2nd rounders in the past 4 years, so maybe they’ve just had more chances at it). Any kind of draft, but especially in the NBA where guy are plopped into the life a professional athlete at such a young age, is pretty much just a guess. Either way, the earlier you pick the better, since obviously more choices will be left on the table, and if you’re consistently getting talent worse than the guys late in the draft, it’s not your draft position’s fault, it’s just bad talent evaluation.

by osamu on Nov 9, 2011 1:02 AM PST up reply actions

See My Response to Erik O Above

for the point I was trying to make.

NewCavsfan: Sorry that my posts aren’t always that clear. I do the best I can like all of us. If there is something I post that isn’t clear to you than just ask me and I will try and make it clearer.

by Buddahfan on Nov 9, 2011 8:43 AM PST up reply actions

But...

In this scenario the 16th pick goes to Boston.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Nov 8, 2011 8:45 AM PST up reply actions

Yup.

And in any case, in any draft, I’ll take the 8th pick (or the 3rd pick) over the 16th.

by John Raffo on Nov 8, 2011 9:25 AM PST up reply actions

I Also Prefer The Higher Picks

Why not? I think that is a basketball given

I was just pointing out that by not having a season doesn’t guarantee under the scenario provided by Steve that the players that the Clippers draft would become better NBA players than the ones that Clippers may draft if there is a season.

I would rather there be a season even if the Clips draft picks wind up lower than they would have without a season. Drafting is just too much of a crap shoot IMO to give up a season with the Clips young team just so the Clips could have slightly higher draft picks. That’s all I am saying.

by Buddahfan on Nov 8, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions