Predicted wins thru 10 games

by banandy on Jan 17, 2012 11:15 AM PST

Here's a quick snapshot of the league thru Jan 16 (i.e. Clippers first 10 games).

Using the pythagorean wins method (which, if you don't what that is, check out this link W Pyth), you'll notice that using this method, the Clippers were predicted to win 6 games, but actually won 7. The prediction formula seems to "work" when comparing the other NBA teams versus their actual wins to date.

Based off these early results, the Clippers should expect to win 41 games this shortened season which translates to 51 wins in a regular season, not too shabby. However, they would only be a 6th seed behind the Lakers. I'm pleased to say that the Clippers are now the 27th best rebounding team in the NBA, yes!

Interestingly, the TWolves would sneak into the 8th spot - wow, aren't we glad we traded that pick! Ricky Rubio is ballin.

Feel free to add any of your own observations/conclusions - I'll try to update this periodically as we go thru the season.

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one problem

I’m a big fan of Pythagorean wins, but with the sample size still small, strength of schedule is still having a major impact. For instance, Philadelphia isn’t the best team in the East – they’ve just played a long series of bad teams.

In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd

by Steve Perrin on Jan 17, 2012 11:45 AM PST reply actions

agree - hard to think they would better my beloved 72-win Bulls team if this were an 82 game season!

obviously as more games are played, this exercise becomes more and more relevant…

We need Bill Walton back: "Where would the LA Clippers franchise be without Sean Rooks? Bo Outlaw might be the best pick up of the off season.
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by banandy on Jan 17, 2012 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Good job

keep us updated throughout the season

Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas

by bacek on Jan 17, 2012 1:53 PM PST up reply actions

Yes, and in addition

I think that the Clippers have a shot to markedly improve by playing together given that they had not played togehter before.

"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.

by Jax on Jan 17, 2012 12:05 PM PST up reply actions

Few teams that stick out:

Nuggets, Wolves, Cavs, Celtics.

"Things change when something is taken away from you" -BG32

by JackduhSun on Jan 17, 2012 12:01 PM PST reply actions

*And 76ers

I mean wow really? 74 wins in the regular season? Seems a bit far fetched.. hahaha

"Things change when something is taken away from you" -BG32

by JackduhSun on Jan 17, 2012 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

see...we should have traded for Iggy instead

Ralph, "Last year so often with Blake Griffin you would see these things coming, with Paul, he's so crafty, all of a sudden boom there it is."

by KidJustin on Jan 18, 2012 1:19 AM PST up reply actions

I wonder how much yesterday's adventures from the charity stripe contributed to the Clippers being 29th

Any way to know what it was before that hideous performance?

by yaggiefresh on Jan 17, 2012 12:08 PM PST reply actions

sorry, I don't have that...

but that’s a good idea, after another 10 games, I’ll try and add a trending chart that shows +/- movement in the ranks.

by banandy on Jan 17, 2012 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks for putting all this together!

by yaggiefresh on Jan 17, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions

They are improving with rebounding and points allowed which is good.

I really don’t look at stats until 20 games because if you haven’t gel by then
you will have problems.The best comparison would be last years first ten
games compared to this year. What were we last year 1-9 or something
like that. Thats 60% better and now thats a major improvement. Defense
and rebounding wins championships.

by ENCUEROMAN on Jan 17, 2012 12:34 PM PST reply actions