Very interesting dissection of the Clippers by Hollinger
Some of it seems a little biased or outdated (the stuff about the D ignores the recent improvement, and his PER love makes him a bit too harsh on Reggie), but most of it (his assessments of the offense, the bench, and VDN) seems right on the money to me.
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boltsfan21
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Is there anyway you can actually post the article..........
I dont have insider and I suspect a lot of people dont as well.
Here is the text of the article.
Break down the Los Angeles Clippers and one word keeps springing back to mind: exhilarating. On the right day, the Lob City Experience equals anything in sports. With two ridiculous athletes in the frontcourt paired with arguably the best passer in basketball, no team can be more spectacular.
Unfortunately, most basketball plays aren’t lobs. Watch the Clippers for a while and a more enduring word comes to mind: incomplete.
The list of L.A.‘s weaknesses is fairly extensive, and we’re only 11 games into the season. Minus Chris Paul, their offense seemed in shambles in Tuesday night’s 108-79 thrashing in Utah (side note: Don’t worry, Jazz fans, we noticed), and this team has to win with offense because it doesn’t play a ton of defense.
The result? The Clippers’ 7-4 mark gives them too much credit; they stand there largely because seven of their 11 games have been at home. If you compare them with the Houston Rockets, who have just as good a record at home and on the road and virtually the same point differential, the Clips’ uneven start is more apparent. Alas, the kind early schedule will turn on them in a major way at the end of the month. Although the Clips’ next five games are in L.A. — including a “road” game versus the Lakers — they play 15 times in 24 days after that, with 10 of those games away.
Although the dunks provide great theater, there’s the little matter of defense. The Clips are tied for 24th in defensive efficiency — a mark that seems likely to get worse and not better when one considers they’ve played only four road games. And one can’t help but think “My, Dwight Howard would fit in nicely here.”
More on that in a second, but first let’s deconstruct the current roster. L.A. was hoping to be a contender this season once it added Paul; at the very least, it hoped to be competing for a spot in the conference finals opposite presumptive favorites the Oklahoma City Thunder.
At the moment, getting into the playoffs appears to be challenge enough. The Clippers are 15th in the daily power rankings, in a conference in which an amazing 11 teams sport a rating better than the 100.0 average.
Again, incompleteness is the reason. Look at the roster and you’ll notice six productive players — three of whom play the same position. Once Eric Bledsoe gets healthy, those numbers become seven and four.
You’ll also see a glaring lack of depth. The Clippers have two superstars (Paul and Blake Griffin), four moderately productive players (Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups, Mo Williams and DeAndre Jordan), and a whole lot of nothing backing it up. Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes and Reggie Evans all have single-digit PERs; Brian Cook has managed the difficult feat of having a subzero mark.
In particular, the frontcourt depth is scary bad, and letting consistently productive Craig Smith slink off to Portland for the minimum was a tremendous oversight. At some point, the Clippers need to parlay their backcourt depth into a decent third big man. No, one-trick pony Evans doesn’t qualify.
But other issues loom, too. The Clippers’ defense is bad for several reasons, but a big one is the complete lack of quality wing defenders. Asking Billups or Butler to guard the Kobe Bryants and Kevin Durants of the league is folly; Foye often is asked to be the team’s stopper. Billups and Foye also put up rebounding numbers that are wholly inadequate for a wing player, two underrated reasons the Clips have struggled on the glass as a team.
And up front, Griffin and Jordan have had an awful lot of trouble converting their exceptional athleticism into even average defense. Jordan blocks a lot of shots and Griffin is an exceptional rebounder, but both players need to make considerable improvements in effort and concentration.
Which leads us back to the ringleader, Vinny Del Negro. The fact that the Chicago Bulls improved dramatically immediately after replacing him can be seen as both good news and bad news for Clippers fans, given that he’s in the last year of his contract.
But if somebody is going to make this jumble into something more than the sum of its McNugget-esque parts, Vinny doesn’t seem to be the guy. When Paul isn’t on the court to run pick-and-roll on every trip, the offense is a disorganized mess; even when CP3 plays, it’s baffling why Griffin is doing so much pick-and-pop and so little rolling to the rim.
Offense aside, every night produces its own strategic head-scratcher. On Tuesday, for instance, the Clippers went a two-minute stretch of the second quarter with a quintet of Courtney Fortson, Travis Leslie, Trey Thompkins, Gomes and Evans. Yes, it’s a back-to-back-to-back and guys were missing, but having at least one player on the court capable of making a basket seems relatively important. This looked like a failure to have a plan coming in.
Finally, there’s the defense — the area where the Bulls improved so dramatically post-Vinny, and the area where the Clippers don’t seem to be making much progress. L.A. is below average in each of Dean Oliver’s “four factors,” with a No. 27 rank in opponent free throw rate underscoring their mistake-prone-ness.
Which takes us back to the one man who could change that — Dwight Howard. Put CP in charge of the offense and Howard in charge of the defense, and you or I could coach this team to the playoffs.
Our former colleague Chris Sheridan reported that the Clippers might join the New Jersey Nets, the Dallas Mavericks and the Lakers on “The List” — the teams Howard (or his agent) would approve being traded to and signing an extension.
Which is great news for the Clippers, but they still need to take things from Point A to Point B. Having used their best assets to get Paul, it won’t be easy. The Clips won’t have enough cap space after the season to sign Howard outright, even if they exercise their amnesty rights on Williams’ contract and somehow magically make Gomes disappear.
Instead, their most logical avenues involve trading either Griffin or Jordan for Howard. To which Clippers fans unanimously answer back: “Jordan.” Orlando might play ball with such an offer; getting a young center would be alluring for the Magic, of course, especially if attached to a quality backcourt prospect (Bledsoe) and a couple of future firsts (the Clips can offer their picks in 2013, 2015 and 2017).
Alas, two problems intervene. First, a sign-and-trade after the season seems much more workable than doing something by the March 15 trade deadline; after the season, the Clippers can “amnesty” Williams and do an unbalanced trade that gives Orlando some cap relief. (Orlando needs it — if it plans to extend or re-sign Ryan Anderson, it’ll be a tax team again).
The second, more serious problem, is that Andrew Bynum is better than Jordan. There is essentially no offer the Clippers can make that can trump the Lakers’ saying the word “Bynum.” That is the minimum standard for any Howard trade bid because the Magic know that, at any time, they can do a deal with the Lakers for Bynum.
As a result, solutions won’t be as easy to come by as Clippers’ fans might hope. They have the building blocks of a great team with Paul and Griffin, and 20 teams would change “problems” with them in a heartbeat.
But although the house has a good foundation, there are walls in odd places and the layout stinks. L.A. has time to fix what ails it between now and March 15, but it’s not just a quick paint job and some tidying up; there’s remodeling work to be done here. With a bottom-heavy roster, a general lack of depth and a suspect helmsman, the inescapable conclusion is that the Clips are too incomplete to contend.
Exhilarating, yes. But ultimately incomplete.
"Lets get one thing straight, the only reason you are conscious right now is because I don't feel like carrying you." - Jack Bauer
"Consequences, Schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich." - Daffy Duck
Hmmm
I agree with some points, disagree with some points. Isn’t he undervaluing Reggie Evans a bit? He seems to be the only one in the media who doesn’t see what a useful find Reggie has been and how he’s singlehandedly solved our rebounding issues. We are no longer rebounding poorly at 45+ the last 4 games. And I think our defense has improved too with the addition of Reggie, as we’re now 23rd (according to b-ref.com) in defensive rating with 105. That’s not good, but considering we were 30th not that long ago, that’s pretty decent.
Still, Hollinger’s right that we’re incomplete. We know this, though.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Oh and he's right about Blake
Why so much pick-and-popping? Where’s the roll??
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Agreed
Interesting read – thanks. The Clippers are indeed incomplete, but they are certainly in a better position than they have been for the past 20 years.
Hopefully, some of their issues will be solved by simply getting used ot each other and playing with effort on D.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
PER
Has always marginalized non scorers. Reggie is a quality backup. Gomes and Foye are terrible by pretty much any advanced statistic.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 18, 2012 1:38 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Just look at how for all 3 Bulls championships (96-98) PER rated Dennis Rodman as a below average player.
Oh Hollinger you silly goose.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
This
is the problem with anyone married to any one particular advanced metric. They all can be useful, and blending what they tell us is definitely useful. But rigid adherence to one or the other is folly, especially since none does an adequate job of quantifying defense.
Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Now living the good life in Lob City, CA.
Yea, that's why I always try to do a blend of PER, WS/48, WP48, and Adv+/- (for 2005 onward)
That way you can diffuse some of the biases that the metrics have.
Sometimes I think Hollinger may be aware of this, but since he created one of them (and presumably makes money by letting ESPN use it), he can’t exactly go promoting the competition. Fair enough…
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
hate advanced +/- for evaluating a player
it’s only good for evaluating lineups
Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas
Yea, I usually take it with a big grain of salt
And I trend heavily to using PER + WS/48 because they are both on the same page at b-ref.com (lazy)
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
LOL
Me too, and for the same reason.
Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Now living the good life in Lob City, CA.
He's dead on about VDN too
He has to leave at least one scorer on the floor at all times and this shouldn’t be so difficult since we have so many (Billups, Griffin, Butler, and Paul) this will also be a lot easier once we get mo back for some second unit scoring
by NoBandwagoners on Jan 18, 2012 12:43 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Well...
I’m not sure where he came up with his expectations. “at the very least, [LAC] hoped to be competing for a spot in the conference finals opposite presumptive favorites the Oklahoma City Thunder.” That’s the very least? Really? Anyone around here feel like that was “the very least” going into the season?
Hollinger sets the bar higher than anyone else, and then criticizes the Clippers for not getting there. Clever.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
Basically
I don’t think anyone around here disagrees with much that he says. The tone is what’s strange (though not surprising for him). He goes with “the Clippers stink, they won’t even make it to the conference finals” instead of “the Clippers are building something special, I see them in the conference semi-finals this year.” Same level of success, different tone.
In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. - Elwood P. Dowd
by Steve Perrin on Jan 18, 2012 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
Good point - and really how is he any more qualified than anyone else to opine on
things like defensive schemes and substitution patterns? Isn’t Hollinger basically a statistics guru? When you combine the nature of his opinions with his smug style, the result seems rather toxic. And your point about the smug tone is dead on – maybe he’s reacting to some of the ESPN hype – but none of that has anything to do with the team itself.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Seriously - we secured CP3 shortly before the start of the season
His articile reads like a criticism of the GM when like Steve said he could be praising the GM for putting together something that could with a little tweaking (ok some tewaking) contend. Wonder what Sterling or MDSr ever did to this guy.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
he watches a lot of basketball
And dissects a lot of basketball data I would suspect. Advanced statistics can be a hugely valuable resource to teams. If Caron is shooting 33% from 3s overall that’s not good. But let’s say on inspection he shoots 40% on corner 3s and 25% from the top of the key. Coaches should then try to figure out ways to get him the ball in the corner a la Bruce Bowen.
Another thing advanced stats can do is find out who you should be playing. You don’t always need you 5 best scorers out there at once. You can stagger it and advanced stats can tell you who to play together etc.
Adapt or die.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 18, 2012 1:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I'd love it if Hollinger would do the stats and let someone else write the articles
The numbers are real. His analysis is often skewed, though, and his tone is despicable. Anyone of us easily have easily reached his basic conclusions, but in most cases the write-up would have been a lot different.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Agree
I always find it funny that statisticians think that when they write articles, since the data is objective (which it is), therefore their analysis is objective. But then articles like this come up, where you can just imagine the same exact data being portrayed in a much different light, simply by using different wording. Everything is spin.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
articles can NEVER be objective
the numbers are the only thing objective
everyone has certain POVs, shaped by past experiences etc., therefore an article can never be objective in any form of writing
Blake Griffin is coming, hide your MBengas
Agreed
And I think his criticisms of the D (which has improved from the horrible start) and Reggie Evans (whose contributions have been evident to anyone watching closely) were off-base.
On the other hand, I’m not sure everyone around here would agree with his take on VDN. I thought he was dead on, though, both with respect to the pick-and-pops with Blake and the baffling substitution patterns. Not being able to keep a couple starters on the floor at all times is bush league, and we’ve gone through periods in every game (including most of the wins) where we’ve either dug ourselves a hole or let the other team back in because we’ve gone 2-4 minutes without a scoring threat on the floor.
Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Now living the good life in Lob City, CA.
+a big, irritated 1
He says we’re 15th on the power rankings, which may be true at the moment (I haven’t checked), but just two days ago we were around 5th or 6th. Good thing he waited for Paul to get injured, and for the Clips to play at Utah, before he wrote this.
Hollinger is the master at Stat-myopia. All too frequently he overlooks the obvious flaw in his number crunching, especially if it will allow him to grind whatever axe he’s wielding. He’s an intelligent guy who knows his math, but he often chooses to press his bias instead. I’m more annoyed with him than Sheridan, frankly.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
+1, Unfortunately
There is definitely a faction within the media who are more interested in goal-seeking how the clips can screw things up and are less willing to give the team a chance to play its actual role as an up-and-comer. I don’t disagree with some of the flaws, but trading for a megastar and being in a major media market are weak excuses for overlooking the facts (lots of personnel changes) and immediately putting the team on the clock.
OKC has two homegrown superstars and understandably gets the praise and love from the media. The Heat stars acted like prima donnas and understandably got coined as villians. We at the very least deserves to get viewed as somewhere in between if not closer to OKC
Hollinger is such a joke.
You know he was just waiting for a bad loss so that he could gleefully write another Clipper-bashing article.
Hollinger is to the Clippers as Henry Abbott is to the Lakers.
Clippers // Chargers // Rays // Boise State
"The Lakers do win games. But things can change." - Blake Griffin
hes a stats guy
He couldn’t bash the Clips if they didn’t have bad PER numbers. The Clips have a lot of those unfortunately.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 18, 2012 1:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think you're missing the larger issue
We understand he’s a stats guy. it’s what he does with the status, how he interprets them, that is the problem. See Steve’s discussion above.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
He can't change the PER
its a formula that he lists out so of course he will say the Clipper players suck if they have low PERs. I think you could run any number of formulas that spit out the same conclusion for all the Clipper bench players sans Mo and Evans.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 19, 2012 12:39 AM PST up reply actions
That's not what we are talking about
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
No, you can't have it both ways
It’s simple to Hollinger, if the guy has a low PER he sucks.
It doesn’t take PER to tell us that Gomes, Foye, Cook etc. suck whether he is being biased against the Clips or not. If those same guys had PERs above 15 he’s say they were solid players.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 19, 2012 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
That's not what we are talking about
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Again, what Jax said
Whether or not he’s stuck to PER isn’t the issue, it’s that he’s decided to portray the information in a negative way when it’s completely unnecessary to do so. Even if you stick to PER, you can paint a much rosier picture of the team. Hollinger would probably say that he’s being objective and stating facts, but that’s not true at all. As Steve says, he chooses to arbitrarily set the bar extremely high and then go into how the Clippers have been disappointing for not meeting that bar. Spin spin spin.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
You guys are too sensitive
You’ll also see a glaring lack of depth. The Clippers have two superstars (Paul and Blake Griffin), four moderately productive players (Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups, Mo Williams and DeAndre Jordan), and a whole lot of nothing backing it up. Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes and Reggie Evans all have single-digit PERs; Brian Cook has managed the difficult feat of having a subzero mark.
I think we all agree with this aside from Reggie Evans being short-changed for being a non-scorer. Sure Hollinger cherrypicks otherwise he’d have nothing else to say other than pointing at the PER number. I don’t know how anyone can really talk Gomes, Foye, Cook, Thompkins etc up.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 20, 2012 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe too sensitive ;)
Didn’t disagree with his individual conclusions, just with his overall one. And of course Reggie.
You’d have thought that after all these years we would have built up a thicker hide haha.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
What Jax said
No one disputes the information—-except maybe the devaluing of Reggie, but that’s a separate argument about the merits of PER—-it’s just that the chooses to take a very glass-half-empty view of that information. He’s being obnoxious, not wrong.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Hollinger DOES make some good (if unexceptional) points
His statistics would carry more import if he’d let the valid ones speak for themselves.
Which ones are valid? The PER values that suggest Gomes and Cook aren’t carrying their weight, and that Foye’s play is very marginal. I’d love for us to pick up Smith when comes back. (But please don’t construe any of this as put down on Olshey. Leave the FO out of it. Our bench is underperforming, and we should be looking at ways to improve. Period.)
Which ones are invalid? The PER for Reggie Evans, the early season post-Utah power rankings, and anything based on our erratic defense performance.
So great, Hollinger’s 2 for 5. That’s a 40% validity rating. Need I say more?
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
Sorry, I think it's more like 3 for 6, or 50%
You left out the critique of VDN, which I find very hard to dispute.
Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Now living the good life in Lob City, CA.
Agreed
I’m being about as careful as Hollinger, aren’t I?
I’m not completely sold by what the Bulls have done pre and post Vinnie. There are too many confounding variables, none of which Hollinger bothers to mention.
But beyond my annoyance, I’ll admit Vinnie’s post-game comments don’t inspire a lot of confidence. I’m not at all convinced that he sees far enough into things. We should have a coach who’s drawing up strategies and leading the charge. That hardly seems like VDN.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
I agree
And would add any critique of coaching to the extent his critique would carry any more weight than any of ours.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Confusing statement
But please don’t construe any of this as put down on Olshey. Leave the FO out of it. Our bench is underperforming, and we should be looking at ways to improve. Period
Um our weak bench is the FO job to fix. Not sure how “we” are suppose to do anything about it. If the bench players are bad and the FO signed them then that seems to be on the FO. If they were get then they get praised for it. It’s a very simple system.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 19, 2012 12:42 AM PST up reply actions
Make that
If they were good then they get praised for it.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 19, 2012 12:42 AM PST up reply actions
Gomes and Cook aren't carrying their weight
Gomes continues the trend. Cook was decent from a stats-viewpoint last year (11.4 PER). Foye has his uses as a stand in starter, much less as a bench player.
Gomes just hasn’t preformed up to expectations. In my view, that’s only for a part on the FO. In the end, none of the available free agent SF not named LeBron of that off season have been great. And most teams have players that haven’t played up their pay check.
Let’s not forget that the Paul deal cost us our only rotation SG and a starting level center. Before the Paul deal getting another rotation big just didn’t make sense. After the deal, not a lot was left.
Your capslock is stuck, please buy a new keyboard
by BelgianClipper on Jan 19, 2012 2:27 AM PST up reply actions
Disagree with a lot of of this
Gomes, Foye and Cook were never good players (btw 11.4 is not considered decent) even by PER standards.
Gomes as a PER of 9.0 and 6.5, Foye 11.4 and 9.1 and Cook 11.4 and -.2 the past two seasons.
Reference guide
In the rotation: 13.0
Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
Definitely renting: 9.0
The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0
In the end, none of the available free agent SF not named LeBron of that off season have been great. And most teams have players that haven’t played up their pay check.
Absolutely not true, a great many of the SFs signed in 2010 have been terrific additions.
When we look at our bench/rotation currently you can see the problem is Foye and Gomes are our 8th and 9th players. Coupled with how they made a combined 8.25 million this year you can easily identify where the problem lies.
And the sad part is Cook and Foye are even worse by other advanced stats. Gomes isn’t as bad because he at least makes decent basketball decisions.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 19, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
Your arguments were disproved by Steve and others on a recent thread
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
No they weren't
Found a lot of teams with much better 8th and 9th men than the Clips.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 20, 2012 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
If I agree that Foye is very marginal, Gomes is a dud, and Cook is bad
then that should just about end the discussion. If I further concede that, by implication, these were not very good signings for Olshey, then that ought to close the issue entirely… unless you then want to put a noose around the guy’s neck. At that point I would protest loudly. My reservation with your whole line of argument, dating back to summer before last, is that by all appearances you are going too far.
Those three signings were pretty lousy, but they certainly could have been much worse. Let me know if want me to repeat the arguments that others have voiced (many times) in the FO’s defense. Personally, I would only use those to establish that the FO shouldn’t be handed a fail on the Lebron summer alone. The summer of 2011, meanwhile, was obviously a huge quantum leap for the organization and a pound of vindication for Olshey. Looking at the past two seasons as a whole, I’d definitely give him a passing grade. I wouldn’t give him an A or A-, but he has put us in a great position.
I know that VDN leaves something to be desired, and it’s conceivable that we could have waited on trading Baron. I think we could have done even better than where we are now. For me, though, ultimate judgement depended on what Olshey and Donald did with the assets and cap space that they were sitting on. Now they actually have done something, and so I’m assuaged.
"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT
He's going way too far
This is all to try to prove his point that Olshey messed up last year. Of course, the alternatives were worse and more expensive, in many cases far more expensive, and it is possible if not probable that if we had done what CC wanted CP3 wouldn’t be here now.
As you say, the key is what they did with the assets and cap space. I think that 99% of us are ok with what they did with it. Look what Olshey has done to the team. Chuck should be happy but because he went out on such a limb to prove Olshey sucks he can’t just let it go and admit defeat.
Enough of this nonsense.
"[Fans are] not technically a lot of times savvy. They don't understand and they don't weigh issues the way that [I] weigh them."
Mike Dunleavy, Sr.
Go away crazy person
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 20, 2012 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
If I had give grades for the seasons
2010 is an F
2011 is a B+, it could be an A but he has to lose points for getting lucky with the Hornets-Lakers trade, signing Butler wasn’t an A move and of course significant credit has to be given to MDSr for acquiring said Paul assets and not trading away picks desperately to retain his job a la Isiah Thomas etc etc.
Help us Altered Beast you're our only hope.
by ClipperChuck on Jan 20, 2012 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
The FO didn't get the players they signed
Ryan Gomes career PER: 12.7
Ryan Gomes 2011 PER: 9.0
Ryan Gomes 2012 PER: 6.5
Randy Foye career PER: 13.0
Randy Foye 2011 PER: 11.4
Randy Foye 2012 PER: 9.1
Brian Cook career PER: 13.3
Brian Cook 2011 PER: 11.6
Brian Cook 2012 PER: -0.1
They have all been significantly worse than advertised. If they had played to their career averages, we might not hate them so much. Can you really blame the FO for not foreseeing that all three players would be playing at like 80% last year, and then at like… 50%, 70%, and -1,000,000% this year?
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
(This illustration is even stronger if I remove their time with the Clips from the career avg calc, but I'm lazy and it's already pretty blatant without doing that.)
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Also
According to those PER classifications, all three guys SHOULD be rotation players. That’s what we thought we were getting, right?
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Well
I don’t like the foundation of argument to begin with since PER is flawed in my eyes, players like Foye and Cook look better than they are in PER because of the scoring (regardless of efficiency) aspect.
But Cook had PERs of 2.4, 7.6 and 8.4 prior to coming. He looked like a decent roleplayer his first few years and then was awful for 3 years before Olshey thought he deserves a guaranteed 2 year deal.
Foye’s been a super low efficiency scorer his entire career. He’s just become an even less efficient scorer with fewer assists on the Clips. Even his pre-Clipper days weren’t good.
Gomes was primarily a PF (clearly his best position) before the Clippers signed him to be their STARTING SF. His rebounding numbers were inflated by his PF days and his numbers as a SF were not promising as many people pointed out when he was signed. He’s the classic example of a tweener.
And its ridiculous to think the alternatives were worse, a number of teams signed solid starting/6th man quality wing players that off-season at relatively the same price. Just because they didn’t resign Bo Outlaw to w/e the Nets gave him don’t make up for it.
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by ClipperChuck on Jan 20, 2012 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Well I was just using PER to be consistent with the above arguments
You can’t use PER to argue against them, and then decide that it’s not very useful as soon as it starts to damage your argument.
Those same PER flaws are what brought Cook’s numbers down (because of a lack of volume and not a lack of ability). As John R would say, players are who they are until they get old or injured. The average PER is weighted for minutes played, so those low PER years really had no big impact.
Pre-Clippers Foye wasn’t good, but by the definition you used above to chastise him, he would have been a rotation player. Again, you can’t fight your own argument here.
Good point on Gomes. If his career numbers were based on him playing a different position, then the FO signed a guy they thought could be a starting SF (i.e. he doesn’t fit that rotation player 13.0 PER measure) then this was a bad signing regardless of how well he played after they got him.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Oops forgot to add
Completely agree with your last point. I don’t mean to infer that I think there weren’t better options. There were WAY better options that weren’t necessarily more expensive. Perhaps longer deals, I suppose. Bo Travis Outlaw was probably the only guy worse than Foye/Gomes/Cook that they could have seriously considered.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden














